Continued: War as a weapon of US policy – ​​Why the Iran conflict is not a misfortune, but a tool

The truth behind the war: What the official headlines about Iran are hiding from us

The war in Iran in 2026 dominates global headlines – but the official justifications of nuclear security and the protection of international sea lanes are only half the story. Anyone who wants to understand the true core of this devastating conflict must look deeper and remove their moralizing blinders. The following comprehensive geopolitical and geoeconomic analysis reveals a disturbingly clear picture: In this scenario, Iran is merely the battlefield on which the US, under the Trump administration, is waging its ultimate power struggle against its true systemic rival – China. With control of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most vital energy chokepoint, global oil supplies become the sharpest weapon in the fight for global hegemony.

Based on the theories of Carl von Clausewitz and John Mearsheimer, this text deciphers the cold-blooded logic behind the missile attacks, the collapse of the Islamabad peace agreement, and the media's staging of the war. It ruthlessly exposes why peace is not the primary goal for the instigators, who the secret profiteers of the crisis are, and why the dramatic economic shockwaves—from exploding energy prices to the plummeting German economy—will inevitably affect us all. Read here why this war is not a chaotic disaster, but the precisely calculated tool of a new, relentless world order.

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When states act out their contradictions – a ceasefire, yet the bombs still fall?

On the night of July 8, 2026, the US military reportedly carried out "massive attacks" on more than 80 targets in Iran – including air defense systems, anti-ship missiles, and over 60 Revolutionary Guard boats in the Strait of Hormuz. The trigger was the shelling of three merchant ships by Iranian forces – including a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, for which Qatar and Saudi Arabia also hold Iran responsible. According to US government officials, the current US attacks were "four to five times more powerful" than the strikes of the previous week.

The Iranian response was swift: The Revolutionary Guard reported missile and drone attacks on 85 US military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain, and air raid sirens wailed in both countries. Tehran simultaneously accused Washington of violating the existing framework agreement – ​​the very agreement that was supposed to freeze the war, which has been ongoing since February 2026. "The time for intimidation and blackmail is over," declared Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf on X. At the same time, oil prices rose sharply: Brent crude climbed 2.6 percent to $76.09 on Wednesday morning – roughly 8.5 percent higher than a week earlier.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte described the US attacks at the summit in Ankara as "absolutely necessary"—a response to Iranian ceasefire violations was "absolutely crucial." The contradiction is glaring: An agreement signed by both sides is simultaneously being declared violated by both sides—and used as justification for renewed violence.

War is not chaos – it is calculation – theory meets reality: Clausewitz and Mearsheimer as the key to understanding

To understand the Iran war of 2026, one must first adopt the intellectual lens provided by two thinkers from entirely different eras. In his posthumously published work "On War," Carl von Clausewitz formulated an idea that remains frighteningly accurate to this day: War is the continuation of politics by other means, and it inevitably bears the character of the politics that wages it. If a state's policy is geared toward hegemony and economic advantage, then war is not an expression of moral failure, but rather the logical tool that comes into play when the pen—that is, negotiation and diplomacy—is no longer sufficient. The sword takes over. Clausewitz thus formulated a truth that applies as precisely to the Gulf War of 2026 as it did to the cabinet wars of his own time.

John Mearsheimer, the leading proponent of so-called offensive realism in contemporary political science, adds a crucial dimension to this Clausewitzian framework. In his major work, "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics," he develops the thesis that states strive not only for security but also for hegemony, because the latter is the only reliable guarantee of the former. Great powers maximize their share of power with the ultimate goal of becoming the dominant hegemon of the international system. This logic is not inherently evil; according to Mearsheimer, it is tragic because it stems from the anarchic structure of the international system, in which no superior arbiter exists. Combining Clausewitz and Mearsheimer yields an explanatory framework of disturbing coherence: A hegemonic state that perceives its claim to leadership as threatened will employ war as an instrument when the political costs of inaction appear higher than the risks of action.

The Iran-Israel War, which began on February 28, 2026, with American-Israeli attacks on Iranian territory, can be interpreted precisely within this framework. The Western public is presented with a morally charged narrative of legitimacy: non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, regional security, and the protection of international shipping. However, the structural interests operating behind this facade point to a different objective: control over global energy flows as a weapon in a broader systemic rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

From Kabul to Tehran: The logic of American power projection

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has pursued a foreign policy that, in its deepest structure, corresponds to what Mearsheimer describes as “offensive realism.” After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington remained the sole superpower and used this pole position to establish a rules-based international order, which was essentially an American-framed order. However, as China began to rise to the status of a serious economic and, subsequently, military power in the 2000s, American strategy shifted from shaping to containing.

The Trump administration, in its second term beginning in January 2025, pursued this intervention radically and openly, without the multilateral embellishments that previous administrations deemed necessary. The National Security Strategy includes the stated goal of redirecting China's economy toward private consumption—a euphemistic term for the attempt to deprive its main rival of the foundations of its economic rise. Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby is considered the mastermind behind the so-called "Strategy of Denial," whose basic principle is one of sheer brutality: China is to be gradually deprived of access to markets and raw materials until Beijing is willing to agree to a unilateral trade deal that serves American interests.

This pattern of strategy is not limited to Iran. It can be seen in the control of the Panama Canal, which was under Chinese influence, in the takeover of Venezuelan oil, which until then had been primarily supplied to China, and in the exertion of influence over Greenland to control the Arctic route. Control of Iranian oil and the Strait of Hormuz would complete this encirclement of China. In this scenario, Iran is not a primary target; it is a strategic pawn on a much larger board.

The World's Bottleneck: Why the Strait of Hormuz is More Than Just a Waterway

Few geographical constrictions on Earth intertwine so many fates as the roughly 50-kilometer-wide strait between Oman and Iran. Before the war, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil passed through this route daily, representing nearly one-fifth of global oil consumption and one-quarter of total global maritime oil trade. In addition to crude oil and refined products, about 19 percent of the world's trade in liquefied natural gas, primarily from Qatar, and roughly 30 percent of the world's traded fertilizers passed through the strait. Countries such as Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain were almost entirely dependent on this route for their energy exports; only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates possess alternative export pipelines with a maximum capacity of 2.6 million barrels per day.

When Iran effectively sealed off the Strait of Gibraltar at the start of the war, it struck the global economy with a force that surpassed all historical comparisons. Goldman Sachs described the resulting oil supply shortfall as the largest in the history of global energy markets—larger than the 1973 Arab oil embargo and larger than the 1990 invasion of Kuwait. The International Energy Agency quantified the oil shortfall at eleven million barrels per day, equivalent to more than two major oil shocks of the 1970s combined. The price of Brent crude, which was still around $70 at the end of February 2026, skyrocketed to over $111 in the second week of the war. European natural gas prices temporarily doubled to over €50 per megawatt-hour.

The Strait of Hormuz is therefore not just a waterway, but a pure instrument of global power politics. Whoever controls this route wields enormous economic leverage that extends far beyond the price of oil. It impacts the basic industrial supply of the entire Chinese economy, as roughly 50 percent of China's total oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump himself spoke of escorting oil tankers through the strait, and the US Navy began a naval blockade of Iranian ports in April 2026. The instrumentalization of this narrow passage as an economic weapon against China is thus no longer an analytical hypothesis, but an observable fact.

The outbreak of war and the dynamics of escalation: What really happened

On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iranian territory, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had been the absolute ruler of the Islamic Republic for nearly four decades. This act was not collateral damage but rather in line with the military doctrine of the so-called "Operation Epic Fury," under which the US military claimed to have attacked nearly 2,000 targets in Iran and destroyed 17 Iranian ships. Iran responded to the attack by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, launching missile attacks on Gulf states, and conducting drone strikes against US bases in the region.

The institutional leadership crisis in Iran, triggered by Khamenei's death, has since become an independent factor in the conflict. A three-person committee consisting of President Massoud Peseshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Jehi, and a representative of the Guardian Council assumed interim leadership. Mojtaba Khamenei, the slain Supreme Leader's son, was designated as his successor a few days after his father's death, but has not appeared in public since – speculation about his health or even his death remains unconfirmed. The mass ceremonies surrounding Khamenei's funeral, which finally took place in Mashhad in early July 2026 after more than 130 days, were used by the leadership in Tehran to demonstrate public loyalty to the Islamic Republic following the disastrous course of the war.

Parallel to the internal political instability in Iran, the war unfolded in a spiral of escalation, fueled by both sides, albeit with different motives. The US military conducted so-called "self-defense attacks" on radar installations, drone control centers, and air defense sites, including the city of Goruk and the strategically important island of Qeshm near the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, Iran shelled US bases, including the Ali Al-Salem airbase in Kuwait and facilities of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Kuwait intercepted drones and missiles on several occasions; the United Arab Emirates reported airstrikes on its infrastructure.

The Islamabad Memorandum: A peace agreement that wasn't one

In mid-June 2026, the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, signed the so-called Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. The agreement called for an immediate and permanent end to military operations, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the gradual lifting of the US naval blockade, the suspension of existing sanctions, and reference to a vaguely defined reconstruction fund of at least $300 billion. It was intended to serve as the starting point for 60 days of negotiations on a final peace agreement.

The reality after the signing painted a sobering picture, which can be explained by Clausewitz's dictum: An agreement that fails to resolve the underlying political interests is not peace, but a temporary, trial ceasefire. Less than 72 hours after the agreement came into effect, US forces again attacked Iranian targets after an oil tanker was targeted. In early July 2026, another tanker was hit by a projectile near the Strait of Hormuz; the UK Maritime Safety and Operations Centre (UKMTO) reported a fire on board. Axios, citing US officials, reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard had fired at least two missiles at the cargo ship.

In this context, Trump used drastic language. He described Iranian actions as breaches of the treaty and explicitly threatened the annihilation of the Islamic Republic if Tehran's behavior continued. These statements fit into a consistent rhetorical pattern: Every de-escalation gesture by Washington is paired with a maximalist threat that leaves the adversary little room for maneuver while simultaneously keeping the spiral of escalation going. Meanwhile, in Doha, indirect technical talks took place on shipping control and a lasting ceasefire, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, and according to Qatari diplomats, these talks made "positive progress.".

Cui bono? The beneficiaries of the ongoing conflict

The question of who benefits from this endless conflict leads to a list of winners that confirms Clausewitz and Mearsheimer's analysis. First, let's consider the American defense industry: Even during the Gaza War, corporations like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon had already reaped substantial profits. In 2023, the year following the Hamas attacks, Lockheed Martin achieved a total return of 54.86 percent, while the S&P 500 delivered only 36.89 percent; Raytheon even recorded a total return of 82.69 percent during the same period. A protracted war in the Gulf, requiring continuous orders of munitions and systems, is an extremely attractive financial scenario for this industry—a fact that Clausewitz would have described as the "character of greed.".

Far more significant than the direct military gains, however, is the strategic dimension. In 2025, 13.4 percent of China's crude oil imports via sea came from Iran; China, in turn, absorbed 94 percent of all Iranian oil exports, making it the only economically viable lifeline for the sanctioned regime in Tehran. A war that controls this route is a war that hurts China. Whoever can open or close the Strait of Hormuz at will wields a gigantic economic lever that impacts the basic industrial supply of the entire Chinese economy. This is the true logic of the conflict.

The Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are the real victims. Thousands of Iranian drones and missiles have struck the region's energy infrastructure since the start of the war. The Gulf states' business model, based on the uninterrupted export of oil and gas, has been fundamentally shaken. Some Emirati representatives have described Iran's tactics as economic terrorism. At the same time, the Gulf states are so closely tied to Washington in their security policies that they have little room for independent de-escalation initiatives.

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China's strategic resilience and its limits

When the Iran-Iraq War began, it was widely assumed that China, as the world's largest oil importer and the main recipient of Iranian energy supplies, would be among the hardest hit. This expectation did not materialize to the extent predicted, and the reasons for this are revealing. In the years leading up to the conflict, Beijing had systematically built up strategic oil reserves, which at the beginning of 2026 amounted to approximately 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrels, enough to cover roughly 109 to 200 days of oil imports. China deliberately increased its oil imports by 16 percent in the first two months of 2026, a conscious strategic move in anticipation of foreseeable tensions.

This resilience, however, has structural limits. The so-called teapot refineries in Shandong province—small, privately owned refineries that rely on discounted Iranian oil—are under considerable pressure due to rising oil prices and disrupted supply chains. The price of a liter of diesel in China has increased by more than 30 percent since the start of the war. For China's state strategists, the war represents a bitter strategic lesson: years of dependence on sanctioned, cheap Iranian oil, which reduced import costs in the short term, is proving to be a dangerous vulnerability. A country that supplies 94 percent of its energy exports to a single buyer is vulnerable to blackmail; a country that sources 13.4 percent of its imports from a sanctioned country makes itself vulnerable to the sanctions regime of the sanctioning power.

Beijing is responding to this dilemma with an accelerated energy diversification strategy, the expansion of further strategic reserve capacities by 2028, and accelerated electrification as a substitute for imported hydrocarbons. This bitterly confirms Mearsheimer's theorem: the containment strategy does not lead to capitulation in the contained actor, but rather to adaptation and restructuring, which in the medium to long term can result in a stronger, because less vulnerable, counterpower.

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The geopolitical paradox: Washington needs Beijing to weaken Beijing

At the heart of this strategic dilemma lies a fundamental contradiction. Washington wants to exert pressure on China through control of oil flows and sanctions, but to do so, it needs precisely the Chinese influence it actually seeks to contain. Iran is so deeply embedded in Chinese structures economically, financially, and in terms of energy policy that a lasting ceasefire can only be maintained if Beijing actively supports it. Should China continue to keep Iran afloat through parallel economic relationships, covert financial transfers, or technical supplies, any US sanctions regime will lose its effectiveness.

At the same time, Beijing has a strong incentive to portray itself as a peace-making power. If a lasting ceasefire in the Gulf were to be achieved through Chinese mediation, China's position in this region, so crucial to the global economy, would be significantly strengthened. The regime in Tehran is existentially dependent on Chinese sales: without the Chinese market, Iran's oil export model would collapse completely. This mutual dependence creates a dynamic in which neither a complete military defeat of Iran nor a permanent Chinese withdrawal from business with Iran appears realistic.

This paradox is essentially the dramatic core of the conflict: it is a war in which the aggressor wants to weaken its main rival, yet is dependent on the cooperation of that very rival. Clausewitz would have diagnosed this as a case in which the political end and the military means are irrationally related. Mearsheimer would add that the tragedy of systemic rivalry lies in the fact that both sides are driven by the structural security dilemma to actions that ultimately weaken them both.

The logic of escalation: Why peace is not in our interest

Why is the framework agreement so easily undermined? Why is every gesture of de-escalation inevitably followed by a new provocation? The answer lies in the structural asymmetry of interests on both sides. For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is not only a means of exerting external pressure, but also a domestic political trump card with which the weakened regime demonstrates its own capacity for action. Every tanker attack, every closure of the strait, every missile strike on a Gulf state sends a message: The regime is still capable of action; it can still generate costs. At the same time, the Iranian leadership is internally divided between the Foreign Ministry, which seeks compromises, and the Revolutionary Guard, which prefers military escalation because it has tied its institutional survival to the mobilizing rhetoric of resistance.

On the American side, every Iranian breach of the agreement offers a welcome opportunity for further retaliatory strikes without having to portray them domestically as aggression. The moral narrative of the attacked action is crucial to avoid alienating the war-weary US public. Any renewed escalation can be sold as a reaction to Iranian aggression. The framework agreement thus serves a dual function: domestically, it signals a desire for peace; externally, it sets a deadline that Iran either breaks or can at least be deemed to have broken. Both sides play an active role in this pattern; the asymmetry lies not in intention, but in resources.

Of particular note in this context is Iran's claim to sole control of the Strait of Hormuz in the future and to forcibly block ships using alternative routes. This claim directly contradicts international maritime law, which guarantees passage through international straits as an inalienable right of all states, and signals that Tehran views control of the strait as a permanent strategic asset that will not be relinquished without substantial concessions.

Economic disruptions: Germany, Europe and the chain of ripple effects

The economic consequences of the Iran war extend far beyond the price of oil. With Dubai and Qatar, two of the most important international air traffic hubs have been shut down or severely restricted, lengthening flight routes, driving up freight costs, and significantly extending delivery times for just-in-time industries. An economy flight ticket from Munich to Bangkok at times cost over €3,200 – an increase of around 160 percent compared to pre-war levels. Qatar, which handles almost the entire global LNG export business through the Strait of Hormuz, has been effectively cut off from the world market by the blockade, which means renewed and considerable supply uncertainty for Europe, which had relied heavily on LNG after abandoning Russian gas deliveries.

The conflict has inflicted particularly deep wounds on Germany. The EU Commission halved its growth forecast for Germany to just 0.6 percent due to rising energy prices; the German government itself revised its expectations to 0.5 percent, and the German Economic Institute (IW) even lowered it to a mere 0.4 percent. After jumping to 2.9 percent in April 2026, the inflation rate in Germany is likely to remain elevated in the coming months. The ZEW Institute noted that financial market experts are deeply divided on the future outcome of the conflict, but are largely skeptical of a swift resolution. The ifo Institute described the consequences of the war with Iran as a damper on the economic recovery that began at the end of 2025.

Fertilizer prices, a significant portion of which are transported across the Strait of Hormuz, have risen dramatically. This secondary effect makes the war in the Gulf a globally noticeable cost factor far beyond direct energy prices, because if farmers cannot fertilize sufficiently, harvest yields decrease and food prices rise in the next harvest season. The Iran war thus indirectly costs the global economy via the food chain. The German government's economic advisory council, headed by Veronika Grimm, warned of increasing inflation risks and additional investment uncertainty, and called for a more resilient energy supply in Europe through diversified supply chains and the accelerated expansion of domestic energy capacities.

Three scenarios: Where will the 60-day clock lead?

The Islamabad Memorandum sets a 60-day negotiating period for a final peace agreement, during which issues concerning the Iranian nuclear program, the lifting of sanctions, the reconstruction fund, and future control of the Strait of Hormuz are to be negotiated. According to mediators, the ongoing indirect talks in Doha have shown "encouraging progress," with another meeting targeted for after Khamenei's funeral ceremonies, scheduled for July 9 in Mashhad.

Three realistic scenarios are emerging. In the first scenario, involving technical progress in the negotiations, the negotiators manage to make sufficient progress in certain areas to extend the deadline and prevent an open relapse into conflict—the structural conflicts would merely be postponed, not resolved. In the second scenario, involving a complete breakdown, the negotiations collapse within the 60-day period, leading to another massive escalation with unforeseeable consequences for energy markets and regional security. The third scenario, a genuine breakthrough that allows Iran a face-saving return to the international community while simultaneously meeting the minimum American requirements regarding its nuclear program, appears the least likely because it would require a fundamental reorientation of the Trump approach, which is structurally incompatible with the "strategy of denial.".

The killing of Khamenei adds another variable to this equation. A weakened Iran with an unresolved succession of leaders has less capacity to resist, but is also hardly in a position domestically to frame any concessions as a capitulation. Mojtaba Khamenei, who was designated as his successor but has not appeared in public, remains a source of uncertainty, making Tehran's negotiating position difficult to assess.

The media's staging and the problem of perceptual distortion

Current media reports, from tabloids to sophisticated news agencies, essentially follow the pattern of event-driven reporting: attack, counterattack, announcement, commentary. This form of reporting is not wrong, but it is structurally incomplete. Anyone reading the Bild headline about US attacks in the Strait of Hormuz will get an accurate description of the immediate events. However, anyone who only knows the immediate events, without understanding the strategic context, will perceive the war as a chaotic sequence of reactions and counter-reactions, not as what it structurally is: a planned geopolitical instrument.

This perceptual gap is functionally indispensable for the political legitimacy of the conflict. The fig leaf of humanitarian justification allows every new retaliatory strike to be framed as a reaction to Iranian aggression—not as active warfare in pursuit of economic and strategic interests. Media outlets that uncritically adopt this framing contribute to stabilizing the political consensus necessary to rally a war-weary segment of the population behind a foreign policy that, in its essence, is purely power-political. Clausewitz would be ruthlessly clear here: Public relations is part of the political toolbox that prepares and legitimizes the use of force.

The tragedy of the conflict is mirrored by its dual nature in the media. On the moral narrative level, the US is acting to contain a nuclear regime and liberate the Iranian people. On the strategic, real level, it is acting to control China's energy supply and defend American hegemony. Both levels exist simultaneously – and the moral narrative is by no means a pure lie, but rather a selectively true aspect of a more complex truth. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio succinctly summarized this in an NBC interview when he explained that the conflict had originally been about the Iranian nuclear program, but now it was about whether a state could seize and claim ownership of an international waterway.

The economics of endless conflict

The Iran war, which is primarily portrayed in Western media as a security policy conflict over nuclear non-proliferation rights and regional stability, is in its deeper structure a geo-economic maneuver. The Islamabad Memorandum is not a peace agreement in the classical sense, but rather a temporary, trial ceasefire that stabilizes the escalation spiral at a lower level without resolving the fundamental contradictions. For the global economy, this situation means a continuing strain: increased energy prices, disrupted supply chains, more expensive food, and a structurally unstable investment climate in one of the world's most resource-rich regions.

For China, the conflict proves that its strategic vulnerabilities are real and provides a significant incentive to accelerate energy diversification. For Iran, it means the bitter realization that its regime is fighting a war in which it is being used as a pawn in a much larger game. The real losers in this scenario are the people of Iran, the Gulf states, and around the world who are bearing the brunt of rising energy, food, and transportation costs as the strategic players readjust their positions on the geopolitical chessboard.

Clausewitz was right: War bears the character of the politics that wage it. And Mearsheimer is right: Great powers strive for hegemony. The tragedy lies in the fact that both truths hold true simultaneously, that war thus appears structurally inevitable, and that those who least contributed to it bear its costs most heavily. The strategic goal of permanently weakening China by controlling energy flows is running up against the structural limits of a global economy in which dependencies are so tightly interwoven that every blow against a rival inevitably also strikes the striker—and the rest of the world as well.

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