The global energy lie: Why the alleged failure of the energy transition is just a fairy tale

Nuclear power as a diversionary tactic? The oil states' perfidious plan against renewable energies

The unstoppable triumph: Why fossil fuels are facing extinction despite record consumption

The energy transition has failed; it is too expensive, jeopardizes the economy, and will inevitably drive us back into the arms of nuclear power and fossil fuels – this is a widespread narrative that increasingly shapes public debate. But the hard facts of the global energy markets tell a completely different story. Driven by an unprecedented price drop and China's immense production power, renewable energies are displacing fossil fuels from this growth market at breathtaking speed. Almost 93 percent of all newly installed power plants worldwide are now renewable.

What is often sold as a renaissance of nuclear energy or a failure of climate goals, on closer inspection turns out to be a deliberate smokescreen by the fossil fuel industry, which is fighting for its survival with massive lobbying power. This article takes an unflinching look at the real data from 2024 and 2025, reveals the geopolitical power shifts behind the scenes, and impressively demonstrates why the green revolution has long since passed the point of no return.

The silent revolution: How renewable energies are continuing to massively transform the world – and who is trying to stop them

Between reality and wishful thinking: Why the narrative of the failure of the energy transition is a dangerous lie

The headlines sound familiar: the energy transition is stalling, renewable energies aren't reliable enough, the transformation is too expensive, the economy is suffering, and nuclear power is experiencing a renaissance as the only viable solution. This image has taken root among parts of the population and some political circles. But a sober look at the global energy and investment data for 2024 and 2025 paints a fundamentally different picture: the transformation of the global energy system hasn't failed—it has only just begun, and its pace is breathtaking. What appears to be a retreat is, in fact, the loud roar of a powerful countermovement fighting for its survival.

Records as far as the eye can see: The global expansion of renewable energies

The figures are clear and hard to ignore. In 2024, 585 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy generation capacity were installed worldwide – representing 92.5 percent of total new global power plant capacity and an annual growth rate of 15.1 percent compared to the previous year. This brought the total global renewable energy capacity to 4,448 GW. By comparison, solar energy was barely a fringe phenomenon worldwide in 2010; today, China alone has installed more solar power capacity than the entire global electricity generation capacity that existed at that time.

Solar energy – more precisely, photovoltaics – is the real engine of growth in this transformation. With an addition of 451.9 GW in 2024 alone, the total global photovoltaic capacity rose to 1,865 GW. Solar and wind power together accounted for 96.6 percent of the total net increase in renewable energy in 2024. At the same time, other renewable technologies also experienced a remarkable year: hydropower increased to 1,283 GW of installed capacity, wind power to 1,133 GW, and even off-grid solar installations in developing countries nearly tripled.

The trend is particularly significant in the global electricity market: By 2024, 80 percent of the growth in global electricity generation was already covered by renewable energies and nuclear power, with renewables alone contributing 32 percent to total production. In the European Union, the share of photovoltaics and wind power exceeded that of coal and gas combined for the first time. In the USA, PV and wind power rose to 16 percent of the electricity mix – thus overtaking coal for the first time. The year 2025 then brought a historic turning point: For the first time, renewable energies were able to cover the entire global increase in electricity consumption, while electricity generation from fossil fuels even declined slightly.

The fossil paradox: Still dominant, but structurally in decline

Anyone interpreting this dynamic as a triumph of the energy transition must keep an important nuance in mind: globally, fossil fuels still account for more than 80 percent of total primary energy consumption. Worldwide energy consumption rose by two percent in 2024, and in absolute terms, more fossil fuels were burned than ever before – marking the fourth consecutive year of record emissions. This is not a trivial matter, but a sobering truth.

The crucial difference, however, lies in the direction of this change: While fossil fuels are not losing their absolute share at a rapid pace, they are systematically losing market share in terms of growth – and thus their future. Every new power plant unit, every new factory, every new vehicle that relies on fossil fuel technology today is increasingly becoming an economic misinvestment. The share of fossil fuels in the overall electricity market fell in 2025 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the DNV Energy Transition Outlook forecast, the share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption will decrease from 80 to 37 percent by 2060, while renewables will increase their contribution from 15 to 52 percent.

The structural erosion of the fossil fuel industry is also evident in the oil market: The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a massive oil surplus of up to four million barrels per day for 2026. Demand growth is slowing steadily while supply continues to increase. The IEA has repeatedly revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 downwards, now expecting an increase of only around 680,000 barrels per day – a historically low figure. This trend has a name: structural weakness in demand, driven by electromobility, efficiency gains, and the rise of renewable energies in electricity generation.

The power of price: Why photovoltaics is unstoppable

The most fundamental basis for the success of photovoltaics is economic. According to IRENA, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of electricity generated by power plant-scale photovoltaic systems averaged US$0.043 per kilowatt-hour in 2024. Globally, this made photovoltaics 41 percent cheaper than the most cost-effective fossil fuel alternatives. Even more striking: 91 percent of all newly installed renewable energy generation capacity in 2024 delivered electricity at a lower cost than the cheapest fossil fuel alternative.

In China, photovoltaic power plants achieve LCOE values ​​of just US$27 per megawatt-hour – the lowest in the world. Bloomberg NEF forecasts that global LCOE values ​​for photovoltaic power plants will fall to US$25 per megawatt-hour by 2035 – a further decline of almost 31 percent compared to 2024. The decline is expected to be even steeper for battery storage systems: a drop of eleven percent in 2025 alone.

This price decline is no coincidence and not a purely political effect, but rather the result of a technological learning curve that has been steadily downward for decades. Historically, for every doubling of installed capacity, module costs fall by approximately 20 to 24 percent. With a technology that doubles every two to three years, this curve leads to an almost unstoppable cost deflation. Compared to coal (15.1 to 29.3 cents per kWh) and natural gas (10.9 to 18.1 cents per kWh in Germany, with an upward trend due to CO₂ pricing), modern photovoltaics is simply the more affordable option in large markets – and all this without any dependence on fuel markets or geopolitical risks.

China as a surrogate mother of the global energy transition: strategy, power and ambivalence

No actor has transformed global energy and climate policy in recent years as profoundly as the People's Republic of China. The country is now by far the world's largest market for solar energy, having installed 277.57 GW of new photovoltaic capacity in 2024 alone – an increase of 28 percent compared to the record growth of the previous year. This brought the total installed photovoltaic capacity to 886 GW. In the first half of 2025, China became the first country in the world to surpass the 1,000 GW mark in installed solar capacity, with an addition of 210 GW in those six months alone – more than the entire installed solar capacity of the USA at the end of 2024.

The figures for 2024 demonstrate the full extent of this dominance: China installed 329 GW of photovoltaic capacity that year – more than all other top 10 markets in the world combined. With a 64 percent share of global renewable energy capacity growth, China is not only a leader but also a key driver of the global energy transition. In 2024 alone, China installed twice as many solar and wind power plants as the rest of the world combined. The Agora Energy Transition Institute confirms that wind and solar energy now account for 42 percent of China's total installed electricity generation capacity, surpassing coal-fired power for the first time. At the same time, the People's Republic invested almost US$625 billion in climate-friendly technologies, energy infrastructure, and efficiency measures in 2024 – roughly one-third more than the EU.

This dominance is not limited to the domestic market. China controls virtually the entire value chain of photovoltaics and battery technology – from raw material extraction and processing to module production. A Fraunhofer study shows that no other country controls as many production facilities and resources along the entire battery supply chain. With a global market share of 59 percent in the battery market – CATL alone installed 256 GWh in 2024, and BYD another 135 GWh – China has established an industrial-strategic power position that is unparalleled in recent economic history.

The reasons behind this strategy are multifaceted. It's not solely about climate protection. China aims to structurally reduce its dependence on oil and gas imports – largely from politically unstable regions – while simultaneously dominating key new technological industries of the 21st century. Whoever is the world's factory for solar panels, battery cells, and electric vehicles controls the infrastructure of the future energy system – much like Western countries controlled oil and gas infrastructure for decades. China's new 2035 climate target, which envisions a solar and wind capacity of 3,600 GW, is realistically achievable years before the official deadline, given current expansion rates.

China's dual strategy: Green dominance with a coal-black past

The picture would be incomplete without addressing China's energy policy contradictions. For China continues to build new coal-fired power plants alongside its renewable energy expansion. While the increase in emissions slowed significantly in 2024 and even declined in the first quarter of 2025, the structural transition from coal-fired power to renewable energy is a slow process in a country that consumes more electricity than any other nation on Earth.

The trend is nonetheless unmistakable. In China, the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation fell by 0.9 percent in 2025 – even though electricity demand simultaneously increased by 5 percent. This was made possible because the expansion of wind and solar capacity covered 94 percent of the additional demand. This is a structural shift that points to the fundamental architecture of the Chinese energy system: renewable energies are driving growth, while fossil fuels are being structurally displaced.

China's overcapacity in solar module production is a double-edged sword. At the end of 2023, China's annual production capacity for finished solar modules was 861 GW – more than double the global installations at that time, which stood at 390 GW. Capacity continues to grow as companies like LONGi, JinkoSolar, and JA Solar build new factories. This is driving global module prices to historic lows and significantly accelerating the global energy transition. At the same time, it is eliminating competitors outside China, prompting Western governments to impose tariffs and countermeasures. The political and economic question of whether subsidized Chinese overcapacity is an economic threat or a boon for the global energy transition is not easily answered: For the climate, inexpensive solar modules are a Segen; for the industrial self-sufficiency of Europe and North America, they pose an enormous challenge.

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Nuclear power distraction: Tactic, illusion, or real option?

Against this backdrop, the debate surrounding a supposed renaissance of nuclear energy takes on a new dimension. Saudi Arabia, the country that has been more active than any other nation in blocking the phase-out of fossil fuels at climate conferences, now plans to build up to 16 nuclear power plants, according to its own statements. In April 2025, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, the deal between Riyadh and Washington was nearing completion. At the same time, according to several reports, Saudi Arabia is attempting to prevent any reaffirmation of the fossil fuel phase-out agreed upon at COP28 at UN conferences – from the nuclear conference to G20 meetings and summits of small island states.

The strategic logic behind this is quite understandable: An oil-producing nation that announces a nuclear program and accepts decades of debate, planning procedures, safety discussions, and construction times creates an effective delaying mechanism. Currently, nuclear power plants require 10 to 15 years of pure construction time, in addition to several years of planning phases. The most egregious negative example is Flamanville 3 in France: Originally budgeted at €3.3 billion and five years of construction, the project was commissioned after 17 years of construction with actual costs of €23.7 billion – a cost factor of more than seven. Even the fastest new reactors – Chinese projects – require seven to eight years of pure construction time. In 2024, only six new nuclear power plants went into operation worldwide, while four were decommissioned – a net increase of just two reactors.

The announcement of nuclear power plant projects by oil-rich nations thus serves a dual strategic function: On the one hand, it signals – even to their own populations – technological modernization and a purported reduction in emissions. On the other hand, it provides fossil fuel infrastructure and its operators with decades of planning security for their core business. Anyone planning a nuclear power plant needs fossil fuels during the transition period – and this transition period can be extended indefinitely through planning debates and financing issues. The narrative of nuclear power as an energy source for AI works similarly: Data centers need reliable electricity, it is argued. However, new nuclear power plants cannot meet this demand in the foreseeable future due to their construction times; solar parks and battery storage facilities, on the other hand, can be built in months rather than decades.

The power of fossil fuel lobbying: How narratives distort reality

Alongside the facts of the global energy transition, an information war is raging, the scale and professionalism of which are impressive – and alarming. At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, 2,456 lobbyists from the fossil fuel industry were accredited – almost four times as many as the previous year and more than ever before at a climate conference. COP President Sultan al-Jaber was also the head of the UAE's state-owned oil company. Saudi Arabia rejected any agreement on phasing out fossil fuels at COP28; at COP29 in Baku, according to insider reports, Saudi delegates blocked almost all negotiation topics with procedural objections.

At the same time, fossil fuel companies have been conducting targeted disinformation campaigns for decades. The five largest oil companies alone – BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Total – are said to have spent around $200 million annually on lobbying against climate protection. These sums are not only used for direct lobbying but also for creating narratives: For years, the gas industry, with the support of professional PR agencies, cultivated the image of "clean gas" as a bridging technology. The concept of bridging technology promised a gradual, controlled transition – which in practice meant that fossil fuel infrastructure was built and amortized for decades to come.

According to media scholars and climate scientists, the most effective contemporary method used by fossil fuel lobbyists is no longer the direct denial of climate change, but rather the sowing of helplessness and doubt: the message that the energy transition is doomed to fail anyway, is too expensive, is happening too slowly, jeopardizes security of supply, and will ruin the economy. Those who internalize this message do not act – and that is precisely what secures fossil fuel business models.

The Global South is awakening: India, Brazil and the BRICS countries

One aspect of the global energy transformation that often receives little attention in Western media is the rise of the Global South as a growth engine for renewable energies. In 2024, the BRICS countries produced more than half of the world's solar power for the first time (51 percent). China alone accounted for 39 percent of global solar power generation (834 TWh); India quadrupled its solar power production to 133 TWh; and Brazil, with 75 TWh, even surpassed Germany, bringing the share of solar power in its energy mix to 9.8 percent.

India recorded 24.5 GW of new photovoltaic capacity in 2024, making it the world's third-largest market after China and the USA. The IEA anticipates that emerging economies could account for ten percent of the global battery market by 2030. China's role is particularly significant for developing countries: within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has significantly shifted its strategy towards green technologies since 2021. While over 50 percent of energy investments along the BRI went to fossil fuels between 2014 and 2017, the Green Finance & Development Center has recorded a significant decline in these investments since then.

This shift is strategic: China is not only exporting solar panels and batteries, but also its model of a state-led energy transition. Countries in the Global South receive technology transfer on favorable terms, thereby building an infrastructure that frees them from fossil fuel dependence – both Western and Chinese. IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera aptly put it: The continuous growth of renewable energies proves that they are economically viable and can be deployed quickly.

The geopolitical dimension: Whoever builds the energy future will rule the world of tomorrow

The energy transition is not a purely technical or ecological issue – it is a question of geopolitical power architecture. The age of fossil fuels was characterized by the strategic importance of a few production regions: the Persian Gulf, Russia, and the Niger Delta. Governments that controlled fossil resources also controlled their trade balance, their diplomatic options, and their strategic autonomy. This explains why petropolitical states like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq systematically block progress at climate conferences: every step away from fossil fuels is a step away from their power base.

The new energy system is structurally different. Sun and wind are available everywhere; no one can impose an embargo on sunlight. The crucial resource will not be fuel, but technology: those who build solar panels, produce battery cells, and supply inverters and grid technologies will hold the reins in the future energy system. China recognized this logic earlier and more consistently than Western industrialized nations. The Belt and Road Initiative is increasingly becoming the vehicle for this green geopolitical strategy.

This presents a clear strategic challenge for Europe and Germany: Dependence on Russian gas was the result of decades of political decisions that prioritized short-term price advantages over strategic autonomy. Dependence on Chinese solar panels, battery cells, and rare earth elements could be the next iteration of the same mistake. Energy security in the 21st century means not only switching fuels but also building our own value chain – a task in which Europe currently lags considerably behind.

What the numbers say about the future: Scenarios and tipping points

Several indicators suggest that the energy transition is not only inevitable but is approaching its crucial tipping point. According to recent reports, global electricity consumption in 2025 was projected to reach approximately 31,800 terawatt-hours – with renewable energy sources covering 34 percent of that electricity for the first time. Fossil fuels still held 57 percent, but their share declined for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. China, the world's most populous country and largest economy by purchasing power parity, recorded a decrease in fossil fuel-based electricity generation in 2025, while overall consumption continued to rise.

Global renewable energy capacity increased by a further 692 GW to a total of 5,149 GW in 2025, according to the latest IRENA report – a growth of 15.5 percent. The IWR anticipates that China's solar capacity will have grown to around 1,300 GW by the end of 2025; by the end of the decade, it could reach up to 2,500 GW. The solar power produced in China alone in 2025 will already account for roughly half of the annual electricity generation of all nuclear power plants operating worldwide.

To achieve the global 2030 target of tripling renewable energy capacity, annual growth would need to reach 16.6 percent – ​​an ambitious but, given current dynamics, not unrealistic figure. However, IRENA also warns that significant regional imbalances exist: Asia and China dominate, while large parts of Africa and Latin America still lag far behind their potential. The simultaneous record expansion in Asia and persistent undersupply in many developing countries is one of the key social and economic challenges of the global energy transition.

Something that is rarely said: Five underestimated dimensions of the energy transition

Besides the well-known macro trends, there are five aspects that receive too little attention in public debates:

First, the storage market has become the new key market. In 2025, around 315 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of stationary battery storage were installed worldwide – a 50 percent increase compared to the previous year. China and the USA lead this market, with China adding more stationary storage capacity in December 2025 alone than the USA installed in the entire year. Over 450 GWh are projected for 2026. Battery storage is gradually eliminating the classic argument against renewable energies – their intermittent nature.

Secondly, decentralization is gaining strategic importance. A globally distributed system of millions of solar roofs and local storage facilities is far more resilient to attacks, geopolitical shocks, and extreme weather events than a few large power plants or pipeline systems. This aspect is playing an increasingly important role in security policy debates.

Thirdly, artificial intelligence is accelerating the energy transition on several levels simultaneously: through improved grid control, more precise weather forecasts for solar and wind yields, optimized battery charging cycles, and faster material simulations for new generations of solar cells. Perovskite technologies could break through the efficiency limits of silicon solar cells and initiate the next wave of cost reductions.

Fourth, the energy transition extends far beyond the electricity sector. The electrification of heating, industry, and mobility – supported by renewable electricity – is the true core of the transformation. Heat pumps, green hydrogen for process heat, and electric vehicles are not peripheral issues, but rather the main focus of the next decade.

Fifth, renewable energies reduce costs for economies in the Global South, which have previously suffered from high costs for diesel generators and fuel imports. Affordable solar energy there means not only climate protection, but also concrete economic development – ​​an aspect that can fundamentally change the political dynamics in these countries.

Transformation without a return ticket

The question of whether the vision of renewable energies has been shattered by reality can be answered with a resounding no – as long as one considers the reality of the global energy industry and not the picture painted by vested interests. The reality is: 92.5 percent of all newly installed power plant capacity worldwide in 2024 was renewable. The reality is: Photovoltaics is the cheapest form of electricity generation in most regions of the world. The reality is: In 2024, China installed more solar and wind power capacity than the rest of the world combined.

What's shattering against the wall isn't renewable energy – it's the business model of the fossil fuel industry. And that's precisely why the disinformation is so loud, the lobby so active, nuclear power suddenly so appealing, and the message of fossil fuels being the only option so persistent. It's the roar of an industry that refuses to accept its decline and has the means to slow it down – but not to stop it.

The crucial question is no longer whether the energy transition will happen. It is already well underway. The question is how quickly it will be completed – and who will reap the economic, technological, and geopolitical benefits of this transformation. Those who ignore this question will wake up in a world where others have dictated the rules of the new energy system.

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