End the oil lie: How much we really pay for our dependence – Why a solar power system beats the oil empire

Energy as a weapon: Why Germany's true independence lies on the roof

Every barrel of oil is a transfer to autocrats – and a missed opportunity for German solar energy

Germany stands at a historic crossroads: While the world is shaken by geopolitical crises and fluctuating energy prices put pressure on businesses and households alike, the country still clings to an outdated system. Billions in subsidies flow into fossil fuels every year – money that not only cements our dependence but all too often goes directly into the war chests of autocratic regimes. At the same time, the myth, cultivated by lobbyists, of supposedly overpriced and unreliable green electricity persists. But reality has long since changed: A simple economic calculation ruthlessly demonstrates that renewable energies – above all solar power – are not only the most environmentally friendly but by far the cheapest and safest option. Those who choose solar power over oil today are investing in true sovereignty. It is time for a long-overdue reckoning with our energy policy and a plea for a freedom that literally lies on our own rooftops.

Oil versus sun: Why Germany is paying for its energy dependency – with money, freedom and morality

A simple calculation that changes everything

A barrel of crude oil holds approximately 159 liters and contains about 1,600 to 1,700 kWh of energy. On international markets, this barrel currently costs between 55 and 75 US dollars, depending on the type of oil and the exchange rate, which, at a current euro-dollar exchange rate of around 1.17, corresponds to roughly 50 to 65 euros. For this calculation, a conservative, scenario-typical price level of 100 euros has been assumed, which can be reached quickly in times of geopolitical tension – as recent developments in the Middle East have demonstrated.

The exact same amount of energy, 1,600 kWh, can now be generated in Germany using solar power for well under €50. A modern photovoltaic module generates between 100 and 260 kWh per square meter per year, depending on its location and orientation. Seven square meters of solar panels in southern Germany can therefore easily produce around 1,500 to 1,600 kWh annually. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for private rooftop systems ranges from 8.5 to a maximum of 12 cents per kWh, which spreads the total annual cost for this amount of energy at €130 to €190 over the entire lifespan of the system – assuming a system lifespan of 30 to 40 years. Broken down to a single year, this means that the LCOE for these 1,600 kWh amounts to only around €4 to €8 once the investment costs have been recouped.

The crucial economic advantage lies in the cost structure: those who buy oil pay year after year. Those who install solar panels pay once and then reap the benefits for decades free of charge. The Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) has scientifically confirmed that PV modules exhibit virtually no measurable performance losses after 40 years of operation – the annual degradation is typically less than 0.5 percent. Monocrystalline high-performance modules reliably achieve lifespans of 30 to 40 years. This means: today's solar panel is tomorrow's energy storage system – and it costs nothing to let the sun shine.

The myth of expensive renewables

Despite this clear cost structure, the narrative that renewable energies are too expensive or unreliable for basic energy supply persists. This narrative has a root cause: it was cultivated over decades of fossil fuel lobbying and reflects an economic reality that is now long outdated. Prices for photovoltaic systems have fallen dramatically since 2012. While a turnkey system cost around €2,300 per kilowatt peak back then, the average price in 2024 was €1,200 and had dropped to €1,050 per kWp by April 2025. Solar modules themselves became 20 percent cheaper in 2025 compared to the previous year.

At the power plant level, the message is even clearer: BloombergNEF estimates the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for large-scale, ground-mounted photovoltaic power plants at just 3.5 US cents per kilowatt-hour for 2025 – and the trend is continuing downward, with an expected drop to 2.5 cents by 2035. In Germany, photovoltaics and onshore wind power, at 4 to 10 cents per kWh, are already among the cheapest of all available electricity generation technologies. In contrast, fossil gas power plants cost up to 33 cents per kWh, and nuclear power, depending on the model, up to 49 cents. It is an economic fact: Renewable energies are no longer expensive – they have long been the cheapest electricity generation option available.

Subsidies: Who actually foots the bill?

Anyone who, in light of these facts, still wants to artificially keep fossil fuel prices low through government subsidies is pursuing a policy that favors the past and is detrimental to all taxpayers. According to the EU Environment Agency, Germany is by far the largest subsidizer of fossil fuels in the entire European Union. In 2023, the German government provided around €41 billion in direct subsidies for coal, oil, and gas – this corresponds to more than 60 percent of all fossil fuel subsidies in the EU. If one includes further indirect subsidies, uncollected taxes, and externalized costs for environmental and health damage, a study by the Forum for Ecological and Social Market Economy (FÖS) arrives at a figure of around €85 billion for total government support of fossil fuels in 2023.

Back in 2009, Germany, along with other G20 countries, set itself the goal of gradually phasing out inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels by 2025. This goal is widely considered to have been missed. Instead, in the wake of the energy crisis following the Russian attack on Ukraine, new subsidies were even introduced – amounting to around €33 billion in crisis measures alone. The argument that the population must be protected from high energy prices is understandable, but economically short-sighted: it perpetuates a dependency structure that already contains the seeds of the next crisis. The Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) has calculated that Germany could achieve about a third of its national climate targets simply by consistently phasing out fossil fuel subsidies – without any further regulation.

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Hub for Security and Defense - Image: Xpert.Digital

The Security and Defence Hub offers expert advice and up-to-date information to effectively support companies and organizations in strengthening their role in European security and defence policy. Working closely with the SME Connect Defence Working Group, it particularly promotes small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that wish to further develop their innovative capacity and competitiveness in the defence sector. As a central point of contact, the Hub thus creates a crucial bridge between SMEs and European defence strategy.

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• The SME Connect Defence Working Group – Strengthening SMEs in European Defence

Geopolitics of energy dependency: Whose power are you buying?

Behind every barrel of oil lies more than energy – it embodies power. This power belongs to those who control the oil, not those who buy it. Iran sits on nine percent of global oil reserves and a staggering 17 percent of natural gas reserves. Oil revenues finance the state apparatus, the Revolutionary Guard, and the regional power grab of the mullah regime. According to the Iranian president's draft budget, nearly 20 percent of Iran's oil export revenues – estimated at over $10 billion – flow directly to the Revolutionary Guard. It is this economic resource that enables the regime to subject its own population to inhumane living conditions, attack Israeli infrastructure, and target oil facilities throughout the Gulf region.

Russia's dependence on oil revenues is structurally even more pronounced: since 2014, oil and gas have accounted for between 30 and 50 percent of Russia's annual state revenue. Since the beginning of its war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia has exported oil, gas, and coal worth nearly €750 billion. The Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has calculated that in just two weeks following price increases resulting from geopolitical tensions, Russia generated approximately €6 billion in additional revenue from energy exports—enough to finance thousands of combat drones daily. Every kilowatt-hour sourced from Russian or Iranian sources thus also indirectly contributes to the financing of these regimes.

Germany's dependence on energy imports is structurally alarming. By April 29, 2025, Germany will have statistically exhausted its domestic energy needs – everything after that date will have come from abroad. In 2018, this cut-off date was still mid-May. Import dependence accounts for over two-thirds of total domestic primary energy consumption. According to KfW, Germany spends over €80 billion annually on fossil fuel imports – equivalent to 2.5 percent of its gross domestic product. This sum is draining money out of the country, reducing its economic output and its ability to act politically.

The missed opportunity: Decarbonization as industrial policy

The consequence of these facts is not only ecological, but first and foremost economic and security-related. The accelerated expansion of domestic renewable energies is the only rational answer to energy import dependency, geopolitical vulnerability, and the subsidizing of authoritarian regimes. Those who install solar panels on German roofs and erect wind turbines in German soil are not buying energy – they are producing it themselves. The added value remains in the country. Jobs remain in the country. Capital remains in the country.

The German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) has concluded in a recent policy brief that the solution to Europe's energy security lies decidedly in domestic sources: solar and wind energy must form the core of a new European energy security strategy. Every kilowatt-hour generated domestically from renewable energy sources not only reduces CO₂ emissions – it also strengthens geopolitical sovereignty, improves the trade balance, and deprives authoritarian regimes of their most important source of revenue.

Anyone who wants to maintain or even expand fossil fuel subsidies in this context to appease short-term voter sentiment is acting irrationally. They are prolonging a dependency whose overall economic and geopolitical costs far outweigh the promise of short-term relief. Seven square meters of solar panels on a German roof, generating 1,600 kWh per year – for 40 or 50 years, without any further fuel costs – is not a utopia. It is already a technical and economic reality. The myth that needs to be dispelled is not that of solar energy. It is that of indispensable oil.

Structural inertia: Why the system doesn't reform itself

If the economic superiority of renewable energies is so clear, why isn't the transformation happening quickly enough? The answer lies in established structures that benefit from maintaining the status quo. The fossil fuel value chain – from extraction and refinery operation to the heating industry – has accumulated political influence over decades. Tax breaks for heating oil, reduced energy taxes for certain industrial sectors, and implicit subsidies through the failure to price health and climate damage are the result of this influence.

Another obstacle is the asymmetrical perception of costs and benefits. The costs of subsidizing fossil fuels are diffuse and spread across the entire taxpayer base. The benefits, however, are concentrated and visible – lower heating oil prices in winter, cheaper gasoline at the pump. This political economy favors maintaining old structures, even if they are detrimental to the overall economy. Price volatility also plays a role as a psychological factor: when oil prices fall, the transition to renewables seems less urgent. When they rise, the promise of tax relief dominates the debate – not the structural solution.

The overall fiscal calculation is nevertheless clear: With the 41 to 85 billion euros in annual fossil fuel subsidies, Germany could finance enormous amounts of solar capacity, heat pumps, and storage technologies year after year, permanently reducing its import dependency. The ZEW has calculated that phasing out fossil fuel subsidies could strengthen public finances and generate additional tax revenue amounting to almost 5 percent of total consumption – by preventing health and environmental damage. This is not a political project at the expense of citizens. Quite the opposite.

Energy sovereignty as a strategic competitive advantage

Germany and Europe are at a historic juncture where the decision for or against an accelerated energy transition is no longer merely an environmental question. It is a question of industrial competitiveness, geostrategic autonomy, and democratic self-assertion against regimes that use raw materials as a political weapon. The lesson learned from Russia's gas dependency before 2022 should be undeniable: those who base their energy supply on imports from politically unstable or authoritarian countries make themselves vulnerable to blackmail.

The solution lies literally on German rooftops, fields, and coastlines. A solar power plant doesn't just produce electricity – it produces independence. A wind farm doesn't just generate energy – it creates regional economic value. The economic arguments, the technical possibilities, and the geopolitical necessities all point in the same direction. What's still missing is the political will to redirect subsidy flows and overcome structural inertia – before the next barrel of oil finances the next autocracy.

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