Strategic resilience in a polycrisis: Cost reduction, planning security and resource sovereignty as a future corporate strategy

Warning to industry: Those who don't rethink their approach to AI and supply chains now will fall behind

The new normal: How companies turn permanent uncertainty into a competitive advantage

The global economy is in a permanent state of emergency. Geopolitical upheavals, disrupted supply chains, exploding commodity prices, and the rapid technological transformation driven by artificial intelligence are forcing companies to radically rethink their strategies. The days when management could rely on stable frameworks and long-term planning are definitively over. In this dynamic polycrisis, traditional crisis management is ineffective. Those who merely optimize the existing system now are optimizing for a world that will no longer exist tomorrow.

But how can one navigate strategically in an environment of maximum uncertainty? This article deciphers the three crucial building blocks for genuine corporate resilience: geographically and qualitatively diversified raw material procurement (global sourcing), the secure and value-creating use of artificial intelligence (managed AI), and the ability to simultaneously secure core business operations and develop new business models (ambidextrous business development). Discover why these three levers are not optional luxury projects, but rather the essential foundation for reducing costs, regaining planning certainty, and sustainably securing the competitiveness of German industry.

From reactive crisis mode to a proactive role of shaper

Those who don't change their minds now won't be playing tomorrow

The days when companies could base long-term planning on stable conditions are over. What was once the exception is now the rule: geopolitical upheavals, resource shortages, technological disruption, and volatile trade policies converge to create a complex field of tension that demands a fundamentally new strategic approach. This article demonstrates why the three dimensions of strategic resource procurement, the use of secure and controlled artificial intelligence, and a consistent ambidextrous strategy in business development are not luxury projects, but rather the core building blocks of corporate survival in turbulent global times.

The new normal: Permanent uncertainty as a strategic challenge

For several years, the global economy has been in a state economists describe as a polycrisis: multiple, mutually reinforcing crises occurring simultaneously, offering no clear solutions. In the first half of 2024, documented supply chain disruptions increased by 30 percent, while 76 percent of European shippers experienced direct operational impacts from shocks such as trade wars, extreme weather events, and cyber incidents. These figures do not mark a temporary anomaly, but rather the transition to a new structural normal.

The trade policy upheavals since the beginning of 2025 have further exacerbated the situation. The new US administration fundamentally reoriented its trade policy, introduced extensive tariff increases, and thus significantly hampered the foreign trade business of German companies. German investments in the United States plummeted by half in 2025 as a result of the planning uncertainty. Allianz Trade calculated the effective US tariff rate at ten percent in July 2025 but predicted an increase to an average of fourteen percent for the following months. Milo Bogaerts, CEO of Allianz Trade, aptly summarized the situation: The constant changes in tariffs kept companies worldwide on edge, and the uncertainty was here to stay.

The German-American Chamber of Commerce (AHK) World Business Outlook from spring 2025, based on feedback from approximately 4,600 German companies in over 90 countries, paints a bleak picture: Only 19 percent of the surveyed companies expected an improvement in the local economy, compared to 27 percent in autumn 2024. According to the foreign trade experts at the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), the trade policy upheavals by the USA and the international reactions to them are sending shockwaves through the global economy. Investments are being postponed or canceled altogether, and traditional trade relationships are being reassessed.

At the same time, structural factors such as a shortage of skilled workers, high energy costs, excessive bureaucracy, and gaps in digitalization are exacerbating the situation for Germany as a business location. In January 2026, the ifo Institute found that almost one in three industrial companies reported a decline in their competitiveness; the metal production sector (47 percent), the chemical industry (45 percent), and mechanical engineering (around 40 percent) were particularly hard hit. Germany risks falling behind in the medium term, warned ifo researcher Klaus Wohlrabe, adding that far-reaching reforms are urgently needed.

This situation demands more than reactive crisis management. It demands structural solutions. With its hub of global sourcing, managed AI, and ambidextrem business development, the Xpert.Digital industry platform has identified precisely the three levers that companies need not only to survive in this complex environment, but to shape it strategically.

Raw material procurement as a geopolitical chess game: Whoever secures the supply secures their existence

Critical dependencies and their structural causes

The raw materials sector has become a central battleground in geopolitical disputes. Many critical raw materials, which account for at least 30 percent of gross value added in manufacturing, are often sourced from highly concentrated markets. China alone supplies half of Germany's imports of high-risk materials such as copper, lithium, and rare earths. In 2024, China restricted exports of rare earths, which are essential for electric vehicles and defense applications, forcing manufacturers in the US and the EU to seek alternatives. China's control over 90 percent of global rare earth production remains a persistent source of conflict in 2025.

The structural situation is further exacerbated by two developments. First, the demand for critical raw materials is rising dramatically due to digitalization, defense investments, and the energy transition: The need for lithium is projected to increase by 230 percent by 2035 due to the growth of electromobility. Since the EU is entirely dependent on imports for lithium and rare earth elements, the question arises whether supply can even meet this rising demand. Second, geopolitical tensions and declining European competitiveness are weakening the negotiating power of European buyers.

The BME Commodities Briefing of December 2025 made it clear that the framework conditions for purchasing and supply chain managers will remain challenging in 2026. The steel market will remain volatile, long-term price commitments are hardly reliable, and regulatory factors such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are increasingly influencing prices. Geopolitical tensions, structural shifts, and high costs continue to characterize global commodity markets, while protectionist trade policies and geopolitical interests further exacerbate the situation.

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• Raw materials, global sourcing & trade

Strategic responses to supply risks

In this environment, raw material procurement becomes a strategic management task for businesses. Global sourcing, as conceived by the Xpert.Digital hub, is far more than simply tracking down cheaper suppliers. It's about systematically building a resilient, geographically and qualitatively diversified supplier network that can withstand geopolitical shocks. The logic behind it is simple: anyone who concentrates their supply chains on just one or two main suppliers makes their entire business model dependent on the political goodwill of a foreign state.

Geopolitical risks in the supply chain are constant and costly. The strategy must focus on diversification beyond China, regionalizing production, and developing emergency sourcing capabilities in politically stable regions. Volatile markets and fluctuating exchange rates increase the complexity of raw material procurement. Under these conditions, real-time information and data analytics tools are becoming increasingly important for making informed and flexible decisions.

Another important aspect concerns strategic contract management. As global supply chains are affected by increasing volatility – caused by trade policies and logistical risks – procurement must move away from rigid fixed-price models. Strategic contract management, which incorporates flexible price adjustments and index-linked formulas, enables companies to maintain continuity, ensure fairness, and reduce financial risks. Price adjustment clauses linked to transparent indices offer a practical and fair solution to this problem.

Furthermore, building up inventory buffers and investing in alternative materials and reuse concepts have gained strategic importance – measures that were dismissed as unnecessary capital commitments in calmer times. Recent experience has taught us that resilience has its price, but fragility has an even higher one. Finally, the importance of data and market intelligence is also evident in raw material procurement: companies that make decisions based on real-time market data and sound price analyses are structurally superior to their competitors because they can act earlier instead of merely reacting.

Managed AI: The controlled use of AI as a competitive advantage and governance obligation

The promise of AI and the risks of uncontrolled use

Few topics dominate the current business agenda as much as the use of artificial intelligence. The promises are real and substantial: companies that consistently rely on AI-supported tools are already seeing efficiency gains of 30 percent or more in programming and related tasks. Digitization through AI enables cost reductions of up to 30 percent in various business areas. AI-supported automation of administrative tasks—such as copying between systems, manual data entry, or recurring reports—leads to fewer errors, fewer interruptions, and a smoother flow of information between departments.

By 2030, nearly 50 percent of industrial automation revenue will be based on AI-driven offerings, and the additional market potential of AI-supported solutions is estimated at up to $70 billion worldwide. In manufacturing, AI is transforming traditional factories into networked, self-optimizing smart factories where machines, products, and people constantly exchange data, resulting in less downtime, increased efficiency, and better capacity utilization. A Bain study clarifies that AI is no longer a differentiator in these areas, but simply a prerequisite for market access.

However, using AI without a structured governance framework poses significant risks. When employees copy content from emails, ticketing systems, or documents into AI tools, confidential data can leave the company. Without clear governance, departments use AI services independently, often without IT approval, creating risks to security, availability, and compliance. This phenomenon of so-called shadow AI is one of the key dangers of the current AI adoption phase. Cyberattacks on supply chains increased by 431 percent between 2021 and 2023, and uncontrolled AI use opens up entirely new attack vectors.

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• Managed AI Platform

AI governance as a strategic necessity

This is where the concept of Managed AI comes in, as conceived by the Xpert.Digital platform within its Managed AI platform. The basic idea is simple yet far-reaching: AI should be used where it generates genuine added value – but under clear conditions, with defined responsibilities, and in compliance with regulatory requirements. Modern AI governance creates a binding framework for AI use with clear roles, rules, and approval processes for business units. It should build upon existing structures: risk management, information security, data protection organization, and compliance.

The EU AI Act provides the regulatory framework. For companies, this means that implementing effective AI governance solutions is not a luxury, but a strategic necessity to secure trust, protect data integrity, and adapt to new compliance requirements. Modern AI governance translates ethical, legal, and security requirements into enforceable controls that ensure AI handling sensitive data is secure, compliant, and auditable throughout its entire lifecycle. Strong governance reduces legal and cyber risks, prevents shadow AI, simplifies audits, and accelerates trustworthy innovation.

The economic logic of the managed AI approach is compelling: those who deploy AI under control reap the efficiency gains without bearing the risks of unregulated, uncontrolled growth. AI governance protects organizations from legal, ethical, and reputational risks, fosters trust among employees and customers, creates space for innovation, and ensures compliance with the EU AI Act. The alternative—namely, pursuing no AI strategy at all or a purely reactive one—is no longer a viable option given competitive pressure: by 2030, AI will be a fundamental requirement for market access.

Planning and resource optimization through AI

The tangible benefits of managed AI for resource and cost optimization can be illustrated in several dimensions. At the operational level, the use of machine learning improves planning data and helps to increase defined KPIs such as on-time delivery, while AI continuously cleanses data and thus refines planning within the process itself. At the strategic level, AI-supported data analysis enables the real-time market intelligence that is essential for making informed procurement and investment decisions under uncertainty. The MIT Sloan Management Review confirms that companies with a mature data strategy achieve, on average, four percent higher productivity and six percent higher profits than their less data-driven competitors, and 65 percent of data-driven mid-sized companies outperform their competitors financially.

For manufacturing industries, analyzing individual AI potential is almost an unavoidable necessity given the current economic dynamics. Those who neglect this analysis not only miss out on efficiency gains but also risk falling structurally behind competitors who are already realizing this potential.

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Ambidexterity as a survival strategy: Being able to do both at the same time – what will differentiate companies from today's tomorrow

The dilemma between optimization and renewal

One of the biggest strategic mistakes companies make in times of crisis is focusing solely on the status quo. Cost reductions, process optimization, and efficiency improvements in the core business are necessary, but not sufficient. Those who only optimize what already exists are optimizing for a business model that may be irrelevant tomorrow. This is precisely where the strategic importance of the ambidexterity concept lies.

Organizational ambidexterity describes the ability of companies to combine efficiency and adaptability. It involves continuously exploiting and improving existing resources—referred to in technical terms as exploitation—while simultaneously systematically exploring and driving innovation—exploration. Research over the past two decades clearly shows that the most successful companies are those that master both simultaneously (consciously, structurally, and strategically). Companies with high ambidexterity achieve above-average innovation rates, are more resilient to crises, and experience more sustainable growth.

The challenge lies in the fact that exploitation and exploration require different structures, cultures, and leadership models. This is the crux of the problem: it's easier to do one or the other. Doing both simultaneously requires a deliberate organizational architecture and strategic leadership capable of managing different logics at the same time.

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• When proven strategies fail: Organizational adaptability in the digital transformation of ambidexterity

Structural and contextual ambidexterity in practice

Companies like Siemens, Bosch, BMW, and Amazon rely on structural ambidexterity: Their core business is strictly focused on operational excellence with standardized processes and clear responsibilities, while new ideas are developed and tested independently of day-to-day operations in dedicated innovation labs, incubators, or agile project teams. Contextual ambidexterity, on the other hand, focuses on the employee level, providing them with freedom and equipping them with the necessary skills to enable innovation to take place across the entire company.

Exploration Business Development, as conceived by the Xpert.Digital platform within the area of ​​organizational adaptability, combines theoretical insights into ambidexterity with a practically applicable framework. The approach is based on the understanding that successful exploration cannot be left to chance, but requires systematic methods, processes, and structures, without this systematic approach stifling the necessary flexibility and creativity.

Traditional business planning approaches are unsuitable for highly uncertain exploration projects because they presuppose a level of predictability that simply doesn't exist. Instead, approaches like Lean Startup, Discovery-Driven Planning, and Effectuation have proven more practical. These accept uncertainty as a given and rely on rapid learning through experimentation rather than detailed planning. The central question here is not whether a business model will work, but rather which assumptions need to be tested to find out.

Ambidextrous organizations are able to both react quickly to disruptions and systematically build new ones, making them significantly more resilient to disruption. This is a crucial competitive advantage in a world of constant uncertainty. Implementation is not a one-off project initiative, but a continuous organizational learning journey—a multi-year process that includes setbacks, requires ongoing adjustments, and is never truly finished.

Market Intelligence and Research: Knowledge as a Resource of the Future

From reactive observation to proactive understanding

In a world where market changes occur faster than planning cycles, knowledge becomes the scarcest and most valuable resource. Market intelligence refers to the systematic process of collecting, analyzing, and interpreting information about customers, competitors, and the wider environment. It differs from traditional market research in that it is continuous, cross-functional, and combines numerous data sources to support strategic decision-making.

Effective market intelligence fosters better strategic decisions and sustainable competitive advantages. It helps identify attractive market segments earlier, increase the relevance of offerings, strengthen customer loyalty, and reduce the risk of misjudging market trends or competitive movements. In turbulent times, where the difference between timely insight and missed opportunity can determine the overall success of a company, this is not an abstract recommendation, but an absolute operational necessity.

Data-driven decisions as a structural advantage

The strength of modern market intelligence systems lies in the integration of multiple data sources and perspectives. Organizations should consistently integrate insights into planning cycles, campaign development, and sales management. Teams must regularly review the results and translate them into concrete actions that sharpen positioning and support long-term growth initiatives. This clarifies what the Xpert.Digital concept of Smart Xpert addresses: an integrated platform for research, development, and innovative ideas that not only provides companies with information but also transforms that information into actionable knowledge.

Business intelligence is increasingly recognized as a strategic competitive advantage. Augmented analytics is at the forefront of business intelligence trends, as this advanced form of data analysis uses machine learning to identify complex relationships and generate actionable insights that human analysis alone could not provide. In an environment where commodity prices can fluctuate significantly within weeks, tariffs can change overnight, and new competitors emerge from unexpected directions, the value of such analytical capabilities can hardly be overstated.

The Xpert.Digital industry hub addresses this need with its Smart-Xpert division, which combines market intelligence, research, and development. The underlying logic is that of a permanent early warning system that not only reacts to events that have already occurred but also identifies thresholds and trends early on, before they necessitate action. This is the crucial difference between proactive strategy management and reactive crisis management.

The synthesis: How the three levers work together

Systemic coherence instead of isolated measures

The true value of the approaches bundled in the Xpert.Digital industry hub lies not in the isolated effectiveness of each individual instrument, but in their systemic coherence. This is because the three areas – strategic raw material procurement, controlled AI deployment, and ambidextrous business development – ​​reinforce each other.

A robust raw materials strategy with intelligent procurement platforms and real-time market data is hardly feasible without the analytical depth of AI-supported data processing. Real-time information and data analysis tools are becoming increasingly important for making informed and flexible decisions in raw material procurement. At the same time, a well-implemented managed AI platform creates the very planning certainty required for strategic investments in new business areas and exploration projects. And without an ambidextrous organizational model that structurally embeds the capacity for innovation, the efficiency gains from AI and optimized procurement remain a purely temporary advantage that does not translate into lasting competitiveness.

Xpert.Digital's goal of achieving cost reduction, planning security, and resource security in challenging global times directly addresses the three dimensions currently under the greatest pressure. Costs are the most immediate lever, planning security is a prerequisite for investment, and resources are the foundation for everything else. Systematically addressing all three dimensions creates the essential basis for corporate resilience.

The Mittelstand as a special field of action

Especially for German SMEs – the backbone of the German economy and simultaneously particularly exposed to global shocks – the approaches described offer a practical solution. AI governance in SMEs means scaling AI safely, rather than allowing risky uncontrolled growth. This formulation precisely captures the problem: SMEs generally lack the resources of large corporations to manage the full spectrum of AI risks with their own staff. This is precisely where the enormous structural added value of a managed AI approach lies.

A similar principle applies to raw material procurement: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) rarely have the market power to unilaterally relocate supplier relationships to more politically stable regions or to build up substantial inventory buffers. Shared intelligence platforms and collaborative procurement strategies, such as those enabled by the global sourcing approach of the Xpert.Digital Hub, are key here. And when it comes to ambidextrous business development, exploration can begin gradually – with small pilot projects and limited resources. This reduces risks and enables genuine learning by doing.

Resilience as an investment: The economic logic of rethinking

From a cost perspective to a resilience perspective

There is a widespread misconception in business practice that treats resilience and efficiency as opposites. According to this view, redundancy costs money, and companies strictly focused on efficiency cannot afford duplicate structures, inventory buffers, or parallel exploration units. This perspective, however, overlooks the massive cost structures of fragility.

German investments in the US plummeted by half in 2025 because sheer uncertainty about planning paralyzed investment decisions. The direct and indirect damage caused by supply chain disruptions, material shortages, and missed market opportunities typically far exceeds the costs of measures that could have created resilience. Resilience is therefore not a defensive strategy, but an investment in the ability to act – and the ability to act is the indispensable prerequisite for competitiveness.

ZEW data on innovation spending in Germany paints a mixed picture: Innovation expenditure is estimated at €216.8 billion for 2026, representing a slight increase compared to 2025. However, these aggregate figures mask significant differences between companies with strategically embedded innovation processes and those that treat innovation as a mere byproduct of efficiency optimization. Ambidextrous companies are currently using this period of uncertainty to establish positions that will translate into lasting competitive advantages during the subsequent stabilization phase.

Recommendations for companies

The above analysis provides concrete recommendations for action that companies of all sizes should now address.

In the area of ​​raw material procurement, it is essential to conduct a systematic assessment of all supplier relationships according to geopolitical risk criteria and to develop diversification strategies that extend beyond China and other highly concentrated procurement markets. At the same time, contract models should be reviewed for their flexibility and supplemented with index-linked price adjustment mechanisms to ensure continued responsiveness in volatile markets. Real-time data platforms for raw material prices and market developments are no longer merely desirable options, but rather essential operational infrastructure.

When it comes to AI and managed AI, the first step is to take stock: Which AI tools are already being used in the company, where is shadow AI emerging, and which governance structures already exist or urgently need to be established? The implementation of AI governance should start pragmatically: clarifying responsibilities, defining an AI usage policy, establishing information classes, and implementing a sound approval logic. At the same time, it's essential to identify those areas where AI can generate the greatest efficiency gains – be it in procurement, production, customer service, or administrative processes.

For ambidextrous transformation, a gradual approach is advisable. Exploration Business Development begins with small, resource-efficient pilot projects that specifically test assumptions about new business opportunities. Involving diverse stakeholder groups increases the likelihood of success, as Exploration Business Development touches on various areas: strategy, innovation, business development, finance, and human resources. A willingness to continuously question and adapt the approach is characteristic of successful implementations.

Those who think strategically today will shape tomorrow

The analysis of the current global economic situation leads to a clear conclusion: The risk of lacking answers to fundamental questions of strategic resilience is now far greater than the risk of the actual transformation. Companies that treat raw material procurement merely as a purchasing function, AI as an IT experiment, and innovation as a mere add-on to their core business will be structurally weakened to an extreme degree in the face of this polycrisis.

The Xpert.Digital industry hub, with its fields of global sourcing, managed AI, and organizational ambidexterity, offers an integrated framework that systematically addresses the three key levers of corporate resilience. Commodity markets will remain under enormous pressure in 2026, trade policy uncertainty is here to stay, and the competitiveness of German industry will continue its relentless downward trend unless profound reforms are initiated immediately. Under these conditions, anyone who relies solely on operational excellence without simultaneously developing strategic innovation capabilities, and who conducts resource planning without a robust intelligence foundation, is not acting soundly, but rather with gross negligence.

The good news is that the necessary tools are available. Data-driven procurement intelligence, AI under governance control, and structured exploration processes in business development are not theoretical academic constructs, but rather tried-and-tested methods with demonstrable added value. The question is not whether, but when companies will consistently pursue this path. And the answer to this question will ultimately determine who experiences the next phase of global restructuring as a shaper of the future – and who is relegated to the sidelines as a mere spectator.

Konrad Wolfenstein

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me at wolfenstein∂xpert.digital contact

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State-of-the-art cargo planes, optimized transport routes, and multimodal logistics chains are interchangeable—they can be bought, leased, or outsourced. What money can't buy are direct contacts with producers in Peruvian mines, reliable supply relationships in the CIS countries, and years of built-up trust in markets that are unfamiliar to outsiders. The decisive competitive advantage in global commodity trading lies not in transporting the good from A to B, but in knowing where the good comes from, who produces it, and how to gain access before others even know the market exists. Whoever owns the network sets the price. Everyone else pays it.

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