The PV market in Germany in 2026: Market development, price trends, storage and the new challenges in sales

How did the PV market in Germany develop at the beginning of 2026?

The German photovoltaic market became calmer in 2026, but remains structurally strong. After the exceptional boom years of 2022 and 2023, in which installation figures reached record levels, the market has gradually normalized since 2024. In 2025, the total number of new residential PV installations was just under 400,000. While this is significantly less than the peak of over 670,000 installations in 2023, it still represents a high and resilient market level. The total installed photovoltaic capacity in Germany reached approximately 117 gigawatts at the beginning of 2026, and PV's share of the German electricity mix was 16.8 percent in 2025. These figures demonstrate that photovoltaics has become an integral part of Germany's energy supply and that the sector possesses a stable foundation despite economic challenges.

What do the January 2026 figures show for the residential market?

January is traditionally a weaker month for the German PV market due to weather conditions. At the same time, it serves as an important early indicator of how demand, project sizes, and investment priorities will develop in the current year. In January 2026, including late registrations, just under 26,000 PV systems in the residential segment (5 to 25 kWp) were installed. This represents a decrease of approximately 29 percent compared to January 2025, when around 36,300 systems were registered. These figures are significantly lower than the boom years, when approximately 53,000 systems were installed in January 2023 and around 51,000 in January 2024. Nevertheless, market observers consider the January 2026 figures to be very positive, as they demonstrate that, despite a surprisingly cold and snowy winter month, demand in the German residential PV market remains stable and that no dramatic slowdown has occurred.

What structural trend can be observed in the plant sizes in the residential segment?

A clear structural trend is continuing in the residential segment and has far-reaching implications for installers and planners. The share of systems up to 10 kWp fell below 40 percent in January 2026. Systems above 10 kWp, on the other hand, have been steadily gaining in importance for years. This trend toward larger systems is linked to several factors. Firstly, the self-consumption rate increases with larger systems, especially when combined with energy storage and heat pumps. Secondly, investment costs per kilowatt peak have decreased to such an extent that a larger system is more economically attractive than it was just a few years ago. For installers, this means larger projects, higher demands on planning and design, but also significantly more added value per order. The need for consultation is also increasing, as customers expect more comprehensive system solutions.

How is the electricity storage market developing in Germany?

Energy storage remains one of the key growth segments in the German PV market. The storage rate, meaning the proportion of new PV systems combined with storage, remains high. With almost two million installed systems, Germany was the most attractive location in Europe for home storage until mid-2025. In 2024, almost 600,000 new stationary battery storage systems were installed, representing a capacity increase of 50 percent. The total installed capacity at the end of 2024/beginning of 2025 exceeded 19 gigawatt-hours.

At the same time, demand is clearly shifting towards larger storage capacities, particularly in the 10 to 25 kWh range. A key driver of this development is the increasing prevalence of dynamic electricity tariffs. Since 2025, all electricity suppliers have been required to offer flexible tariffs. In combination with a photovoltaic system and battery storage, households can use the stored electricity when market prices are high and recharge the storage with cheaper grid electricity when prices are low or even negative. In 2025, there were already 575 hours with negative market prices, setting a new record and underscoring the economic attractiveness of larger storage solutions.

The price development of battery storage systems has further intensified this dynamic. Over the past 15 years, the price of storage capacity has fallen by up to 95 percent. A home storage system with 10 kWh capacity can now be purchased for around 3,300 euros. Due to the reduced costs, investments in battery storage are worthwhile even without subsidies.

What role will commercial energy storage systems play in January 2026?

The commercial sector is showing remarkable momentum. In January 2026, approximately 1,248 commercial energy storage systems with a capacity exceeding 25 kWh were installed, representing an increase of about 34 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. In addition, several large-scale storage projects, each with a capacity exceeding 20 MWh, were connected to the grid. This demonstrates that the commercial storage market is not only growing but also becoming increasingly professional. Large-scale storage systems serve not only to optimize self-consumption but also to mitigate peak loads and participate in balancing energy markets. For installers, this translates into a growing selection of performance classes and system architectures, but also into increased price and competitive pressure, as well as higher demands on manufacturer strategies, service capabilities, and system integration.

How is the commercial PV market developing in Germany?

The market for commercial PV systems over 25 kWp has been changing noticeably for the past two years. In 2025, just over 35,000 systems over 25 kWp were installed in Germany, representing a decline of approximately 17 percent compared to the previous year. Following the strong years of 2022 and 2023, this represents a slowdown, although the market remains at a high level. In January 2026, just under 3,700 systems over 25 kWp were reported, significantly lower than the exceptionally strong January of 2025. Weather conditions and project postponements play a key role in this decline.

The average system size, as a structural indicator, clearly illustrates the transformation in the commercial PV market. In January 2022, it was approximately 1.4 MWp, rising to around 6.9 MWp by January 2025, and is projected to reach about 3.7 MWp in January 2026. While the peak value was not sustained, the current level is clearly higher than in the early years. The focus in the commercial PV market is increasingly shifting from quantity to quality and professionalism. While the number of installations is decreasing, the economic significance of individual projects is increasing. Installers with planning expertise and experience in structural engineering, load profiles, and remuneration models can clearly differentiate themselves in this environment.

Why are PV prices expected to rise from April 2026 onwards?

A key issue for the PV market in 2026 is the changing price and procurement landscape. From April 1, 2026, the Chinese government will completely eliminate VAT export refunds for key solar industry products. This affects wafers, solar cells, modules, and inverters. Previously, Chinese manufacturers could claim VAT refunds of up to 13 percent on exports, which had recently been reduced to 9 percent. With the complete elimination of this benefit in April, manufacturers' calculations will fundamentally change. The non-refundable tax will be directly factored into production and export costs.

Module manufacturers have already warned international customers of cost increases directly related to the abolition of the reimbursement. Experts anticipate price increases of 10 to 15 percent for solar modules. A transitional arrangement applies to battery products: From April to December 2026, reimbursement rates will decrease from 9 to 6 percent before being completely eliminated from January 2027.

In addition to the elimination of export subsidies, rising raw material costs are also driving up prices. Silver, which is essential for the production of most types of solar cells, saw significant price increases in 2025. The costs of polysilicon and aluminum are also rising again. Added to this are increasing transport costs and geopolitical uncertainties, which make further price reductions unlikely in the foreseeable future.

What is the current price level for photovoltaic systems?

Despite anticipated price increases, photovoltaic systems are currently at a historically low price level. In 2025, prices for completed systems fell by approximately 15 percent compared to the previous year's average. The average system price is currently around €1,020 to €1,530 per installed kilowatt peak, depending on the configuration and region. For modules alone, the average price in 2025 was only around €196 per kWp, representing a decrease of 23 percent compared to the previous year.

The price decline was particularly pronounced for inverters, where the year-on-year price difference exceeded 27 percent. This development is due to massive production capacities, primarily in Asia, technological advancements, and intense competition among manufacturers. At the same time, module quality has continued to improve, as higher efficiencies, longer warranties, and better temperature coefficients mean that systems generate more electricity on the same surface area than before.

For turnkey systems, a price range of €1,100 to €1,500 per kWp is expected in the German market for 2026. It is anticipated that the period of extremely low prices will end with the April deadline, and procurement and project costing will once again become more important considerations.

What does the price drop mean for the sale of photovoltaic systems?

The massive price drop in photovoltaic systems has fundamentally changed the sales landscape. While falling prices improve profitability for end customers, the margins of installers and distributors are under considerable pressure. Pure product sales generate less profit than just a few years ago. At the same time, customer expectations are constantly rising. They demand transparent offers, rapid amortization calculations, storage integration, and long-term planning security. Today's customers are better informed, compare more offers, and expect comprehensive advice that goes beyond simply selling modules.

This creates a balancing act for sales departments between shrinking margins and increased consulting effort. Companies that position themselves solely on price find themselves in a downward spiral from which they will struggle to escape. Instead, the ability to provide holistic consulting becomes the decisive competitive advantage.

What mistakes should sales staff avoid in the current market situation?

In the current market environment, there are several typical mistakes that sales representatives should definitely avoid. The most common mistake is focusing solely on price. Those who only sell based on the lowest price attract customers who compare every offer and fail to build a relationship. In 2026, competition will no longer be primarily decided by price, but by competence and trust. As Patrick Gessner, founder and CEO of Leadmagneten, emphasizes, classic sales arguments are no longer sufficient to convince customers.

Another mistake is the lack of individualization in the consultation. Customers expect tailor-made solutions that are adapted to their specific consumption situation, load profile, and future requirements. Standard offers that don't take individual circumstances into account appear unprofessional and lead to low sales rates.

Neglecting cost-benefit analysis is also a common mistake. Customers don't just want to know the cost of a system, but also when it will pay for itself, what savings are realistic, and how dynamic electricity tariffs or storage solutions affect overall profitability. Those who cannot provide sound answers to these questions risk losing customers to better-prepared competitors.

Finally, the lack of follow-up support is another weakness. The sale is not the end of the customer relationship, but its beginning. Satisfied existing customers are the most valuable source of referrals and repeat business. Especially in a market with increasing competitive pressure, recommendations and word-of-mouth are fundamental approaches to acquiring new customers.

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How should consulting in PV sales strategically reposition itself?

The strategic realignment of consulting is crucial for long-term success in PV sales. The modern consulting approach must be holistic and encompass multiple dimensions. Systemic consulting is paramount: instead of selling individual components, sales representatives should design complete systems comprising a PV system, storage, wallbox, heat pump, and intelligent energy management system. The focus shifts from pure electricity generation to the holistic energy supply of the building.

Second on the list is economic feasibility consulting. Professional amortization calculations, which depict various scenarios, take into account different electricity price developments, and include the impact of dynamic electricity tariffs, are an indispensable tool in sales discussions. Customers want reliable figures, not vague promises.

Thirdly, the future viability of the offered solution is paramount. Customers want to know if their system is prepared for future requirements such as bidirectional charging, energy sharing, or changes in feed-in tariffs. Since February 2025, the Solar Peak Act has made intelligent control with storage an economic necessity for new PV systems. From June 2026, citizens and businesses will also be able to share locally generated renewable electricity. These regulatory developments must be incorporated into the consultation.

Fourth, digital competence is gaining importance in sales. Lead generation via qualified online channels, professional offer configurators, and digital follow-up systems is becoming standard practice. Companies that digitize their internal sales processes and implement professional lead generation gain a structural advantage over competitors who operate purely analogously.

Why are projects in the commercial sector becoming more complex and requiring more consultation?

The increasing complexity of commercial PV projects can be attributed to several factors. First, the systems are getting larger. The average system size in the commercial segment has multiplied in recent years and is significantly higher than in the early 1920s. Larger systems require more careful planning with regard to structural engineering, grid connection, and permitting.

Secondly, the technical requirements are increasing. Commercial projects today often include not only the PV system itself, but also battery storage with functions such as peak shaving and emergency power supply, charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, energy management systems, and increasingly, heat pumps. Integrating all these components into a functioning overall system requires comprehensive planning expertise.

Thirdly, the economic environment has become more complex. Commercial customers have specific load profiles that must be considered when designing systems. The choice between self-consumption and feed-in of surplus energy, the use of power purchase agreements, and the consideration of regulatory requirements such as ESG ratings make project costing more demanding. Installers who master this complexity can clearly differentiate themselves and achieve higher margins than in the standardized residential business.

What impact will the elimination of Chinese export concessions have on procurement strategy?

The elimination of Chinese VAT export refunds from April 2026 necessitates an adjustment of procurement strategies. Installers and project developers who have previously relied heavily on short-term spot market prices for their component purchases must rethink their approach. It is advisable to build up existing inventories early and negotiate long-term framework agreements with wholesalers to mitigate price risks.

The choice of manufacturer is also becoming more important. Not all manufacturers will pass on the increased costs equally. Some will try to remain competitive by reducing margins, while others will pass the full cost on to their customers. The goal is not to serve as many manufacturers as possible simultaneously. Rather, the crucial factor is to consciously select which systems are a good long-term fit for your own business model in terms of technology, organization, and service.

At the same time, the price change offers an opportunity for sales: Those who inform their customers early about the upcoming price increases and advise them on timely implementation can bring forward order volumes and retain customers who would otherwise have waited.

What role do dynamic electricity tariffs play in the profitability of PV systems?

Dynamic electricity tariffs have become a key factor in the profitability of photovoltaic (PV) systems. Since 2025, all electricity suppliers in Germany have been required to offer flexible tariffs whose prices are linked to wholesale electricity prices. This opens up new optimization opportunities for PV system owners with storage. When wholesale prices are high, they can use their storage instead of buying expensive grid electricity. When prices are low, they can charge their storage with cheaper grid electricity and save the solar power for times of higher demand. When prices are negative, they avoid feeding electricity into the grid and instead benefit from the negative grid electricity prices.

Studies show that a 10 kWh battery storage system can reduce electricity costs by around 12.7 percent with dynamic tariffs. Depending on the household, the potential savings range from €50 to €288 per year, and significantly more with a PV system and storage. However, using dynamic tariffs also carries risks: without targeted load shifting, costs can be up to 20 percent higher than with cheaper fixed-price tariffs. Furthermore, a prerequisite for using dynamic tariffs is the installation of a smart metering system, although currently only 3.8 percent of German households have one.

For sales, this means a new dimension in consulting: The optimal configuration of PV system, storage size and tariff model must be individually tailored to the respective customer.

What specific steps should installers take now?

In light of the market developments described, there are a number of specific recommendations for installers and PV specialist companies. Firstly, they should review their procurement strategy and, if necessary, build up inventories or conclude framework agreements before the April deadline in order to benefit from the currently still low prices.

Secondly, they should expand their consulting expertise. The ability to plan overall systems, conduct cost-benefit analyses with various scenarios, and competently explain regulatory changes such as dynamic electricity tariffs or energy sharing will become a crucial differentiating factor.

Thirdly, they should actively develop the commercial market. Although the number of units in the commercial segment is declining, the economic importance of individual projects is increasing. Installers with planning expertise in structural engineering, load profiles, and compensation models have a clear competitive advantage here.

Fourth, they should consciously shape their vendor strategy. Instead of carrying as many vendors as possible, they should select systems that fit their own business model in terms of technology, organization, and service in the long term.

Fifth, investing in lead generation and customer retention is more important than ever. In a market with increasing competitive pressure, qualified new customer inquiries and recommendations from satisfied existing customers are the foundation for sustainable growth.

What is the outlook for the German PV market in the remainder of 2026?

The German photovoltaic market is in a phase of normalization, which is by no means a collapse. Demand in the residential segment has settled at a stable level, significantly higher than in the pre-boom years. The trends toward larger systems, higher storage capacities, and integrated energy solutions continue, creating new value creation opportunities for qualified specialist companies.

The price increases expected from April onwards due to the elimination of Chinese export subsidies will change the market, but not fundamentally hinder it. Even with moderately higher prices, photovoltaics will remain one of the most economical forms of energy generation in Germany. In most cases, self-generated solar power is significantly cheaper than grid electricity.

The key will be how installers and distributors adapt to the changing market conditions. Those who expand their consulting expertise, strategically manage their procurement, and view customers as long-term partners rather than one-time buyers will succeed even in a more demanding market environment. Commercial PV systems and energy storage remain the most important growth drivers, and projects are becoming larger, more complex, and require more extensive consultation. The market belongs to those who recognize this complexity as an opportunity and develop their business models accordingly.

Why will trust be more important than price in PV sales in 2026?

In a market where product prices are largely transparent and comparable, pure price competition is losing its significance. Customers can find information online about current module prices, storage costs, and system prices within minutes. However, what they cannot easily compare is the quality of the consultation, the reliability of the implementation, and the long-term support after installation.

Trust is built on expertise, transparency, and reliability. An installer who honestly explains to their customer which system best suits their consumption profile, who provides realistic amortization periods instead of making exaggerated promises, and who remains available as a contact person even after commissioning, builds a relationship that extends beyond the individual project. The solar industry is highly competitive because many providers are vying for the same target group. In this environment, those who build trust and think long-term are the ones who succeed.

Which technology trends will influence the PV market in 2026?

Several technological developments will shape the PV market in 2026. In the module sector, highly efficient technologies such as TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact) will continue to gain traction, offering higher efficiencies at comparable or only slightly higher costs. Heterojunction technology (HJT) and ABC modules (All Back Contact) will also become more important, with ABC modules offering the particular advantage of not requiring silver in their production and thus being less susceptible to raw material price fluctuations.

Modern inverters increasingly offer integrated functions such as monitoring, emergency power capability, and preparation for dynamic electricity tariffs. System integration is becoming more intelligent overall, with energy management systems coordinating various energy producers and consumers within the building and optimizing the overall system's efficiency.

In the energy storage sector, the focus is shifting from purely self-consumption to integration into intelligent energy management systems that optimize generation, consumption, and grid feed-in in real time. The possibility of legally using storage for storing and feeding back grid electricity opens up additional revenue streams and increases the attractiveness of larger storage capacities in both the private and commercial sectors.

How does regulatory development affect the PV market?

The regulatory framework is evolving, creating both new opportunities and new requirements. The Solar Peak Act, which came into force in February 2025, makes intelligent control with storage an economic necessity for new PV systems. From June 2026, energy sharing will be enabled, allowing citizens and businesses to collectively use locally generated renewable electricity. This regulation can unlock new business models, particularly in apartment buildings and commercial parks.

At the same time, the Federal Network Agency is setting guidelines for dynamic feed-in tariffs and construction cost subsidies, which will ensure that full feed-in operators from the low-voltage level upwards contribute to network costs in the future. This development underscores the trend away from pure full feed-in towards self-consumption and storage solutions.

For installers and sales staff, these regulatory changes mean they must continuously develop their skills to provide their customers with up-to-date and well-founded recommendations. Advising on regulatory issues thus becomes another quality indicator that distinguishes competent providers from mere price sellers.

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