Photovoltaics: The era of falling prices is (for now) over – China will abolish export subsidies from April 1, 2026

The end of persistently low prices: Why the photovoltaic market faces a historic turning point in 2026

For years, an unwritten rule prevailed in the solar market: those who wait, buy cheaper. But this era of continuously falling module prices is nearing its abrupt end. For homeowners and investors planning to enter the solar energy market, the rules of the game will fundamentally change in 2026. A combination of geopolitical decisions, exploding raw material costs, and new regulatory hurdles will cause photovoltaic system prices to rise noticeably for the first time in almost two decades.

The decisive turning point is April 1, 2026. On this date, China, the dominant player in the global market, will abolish export subsidies for the entire photovoltaic value chain. This move will deprive the market of a price stabilizer that has been in place for years and is likely to cause module costs to rise sharply by up to 9 percent. But the “China shock” is not the only problem: On the commodities market, silver has experienced an unprecedented price rally, replacing polysilicon as the most expensive single component of solar cells – a development that is forcing manufacturers to make radical technological adjustments.

At the same time, the funding landscape in Germany is becoming more complex. While battery storage systems are becoming cheaper and smarter, the demands on metering technology and grid integration are increasing. Anyone wanting to invest in photovoltaics today needs to rethink their approach: away from simply chasing the lowest module price, and towards intelligent overall systems with high self-consumption.

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• Photovoltaics: The era of falling prices is (for now) over – China will abolish export subsidies from April 1, 2026

This article highlights the profound changes in the PV market in 2026, analyzes the new price drivers in detail, and explains why an investment can be worthwhile despite rising costs – if you act quickly and choose the right strategy.

What is currently happening in the photovoltaic market?

For years, photovoltaics were known as a safe bet for continuously lower prices and attractive returns. This era is drawing to a close. Several converging factors mean that the period of falling prices is over for now. In January 2026, the cost of solar modules averaged between €0.10 and €0.12 per watt-peak. This already represented a moderate price increase of 10 to 15 percent compared to mid-2025. For turnkey systems including installation, costs are expected to be between €1,100 and €1,500 per kilowatt-peak in 2026. While this stabilization at a high level is still relatively inexpensive from a historical perspective – prices have fallen by about 70 percent since 2006 – the dynamic price decline curve has flattened considerably.

Why will the cost structure for solar modules change from April 2026?

China will completely abolish VAT export exemptions for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026. This regulation has been a key price stabilizer for Chinese manufacturers for years. Its abolition eliminates a significant competitive advantage. Wafers, solar cells, and finished modules – the entire value chain – are affected. Experts expect this to lead to a price increase of between 5 and 9 percent. For a standard 400-watt module, this translates to additional costs of approximately 5 to 7 euros per unit, representing almost 12 to 15 percent of the total module production costs. This measure is permanent and cannot be reversed. The Chinese Ministry of Finance justifies the move by stating that it aims to promote more stable pricing on the global market and a healthier competitive structure. Many manufacturers have already filled 60 to 70 percent of their order books for the second quarter of 2026, giving savvy buyers until mid-March 2026 to secure their orders.

How do increases in raw material prices affect the modules?

The raw materials situation is becoming considerably more complex. Silver, a key material for cell contacts, has become drastically more expensive. At the beginning of January 2026, silver cost approximately 23,000 yuan per kilogram, or around $110 per troy ounce—an increase of 180 percent over the course of 2025. Silver has overtaken polysilicon as the largest single cost factor and now accounts for 16 to 17 percent of total costs. These high silver prices are forcing cell manufacturers to reassess their costs. Longi, for example, announced that it will switch to copper contacts instead of silver starting in the second quarter of 2026 to reduce costs. Advanced cell designs, such as TopCon and heterojunction technology, are exacerbating the problem, as these technologies require more silver. Global demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry could rise to 10,000 to 14,000 tons per year by 2030, which could represent 29 to 41 percent of the projected global silver supply.

Polysilicon, the basic material for solar wafers, had a spot market price of approximately $7.03 per kilogram in January 2026, equivalent to about 51.5 yuan excluding VAT. After a 30 percent price increase in the summer of 2025, the market is currently stabilizing in a range between 50 and 56 yuan per kilogram. Analysts expect these prices to remain within this range due to anti-dumping measures and increased production capacity. Aluminum, glass, and specialty films—all components of the module frame—also became more expensive in 2025 and are passing these costs directly on to final prices.

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What new challenges arise with funding programs and feed-in models?

The German feed-in tariff landscape will become more complex in 2026. The feed-in tariff under the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) will remain stable for installations up to 100 kilowatts peak, with rates of approximately 7.86 cents per kilowatt-hour for installations commissioned by January 2026. However, this clarity ends there. From 2027 onward, the German government plans to replace the fixed feed-in tariff with market-based financing models to meet EU requirements. This creates uncertainty for planners and could affect the economic attractiveness of future projects.

In addition, a new requirement has been introduced: Since the Solar Peak Act of February 2025, systems with a peak output of 7 kilowatts or more must be equipped with smart metering systems and control boxes. Until this technology is installed, feed-in will be throttled to 60 percent of the nominal power. This is not only a technical hurdle but also increases the overall installation costs. However, the increased flexibility of electricity storage regulations from 2025 onward enables new operating concepts that will be fully implemented in 2026. Battery storage systems will now be permitted to store both solar and grid power and release electricity at a later time – combinable with dynamic electricity tariffs.

What will remain stable and profitable in the long term?

Despite these market changes, photovoltaics remains a worthwhile long-term investment – ​​albeit under new conditions. The Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy confirms that small PV systems can still generate attractive returns in 2026 if the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is between 6 and 14 cents per kilowatt-hour. This is significantly cheaper than purchasing electricity from the grid, which costs households approximately 38 to 45 cents per kilowatt-hour.

The decisive factor is no longer the feed-in tariff, but self-consumption. One kilowatt-hour of self-consumed solar power avoids the purchase of expensive grid energy and saves an average of 38 cents per kilowatt-hour. With moderate self-consumption rates of just 30 percent, a system can be profitable. Returns of 8.8 to 10.38 percent per year are possible over twenty years. Such returns are quite comparable to typical long-term returns of a global equity portfolio.

The second stabilizing factor is the declining cost of storage technology. Battery storage systems will cost an average of around €440 to €500 per kilowatt-hour in 2026, making them 30 percent cheaper than in 2024. Typical 10-kilowatt-hour storage systems cost between €4,290 and €7,740. With falling storage prices, the economic viability of self-consumption systems automatically increases.

The third source of stability is intelligent energy management software. Systems with forecast-based charging – which automatically detect how much sunshine there is, how electricity prices develop, and how much energy is needed – enable additional savings of 20 to 40 percent. Such systems, for example the SENEC.PowerPilot, will go into mass production in 2026 and increase the self-consumption rate without manual control.

What specific recommendations can be made for potential investors?

Time to act is limited, but not over. Anyone planning a photovoltaic system should consider the following factors: First, installation before April 1, 2026, secures current cost levels and avoids the consequences of VAT changes. Currently, there is still a surge in pre-orders, as many companies want to place their spring orders before April. Second, the combination of self-consumption, storage, and intelligent energy management is the new profitability model. Pure feed-in without these components will become less economically attractive. Third, subsidies via feed-in tariffs are becoming less reliable – the switch to market-based models will take place in 2027. Investments should primarily focus on optimizing self-consumption.

The photovoltaic market in 2026 is no longer a market of falling prices, but one of repositioning. China is eliminating incentives, international commodity prices are rising, and support systems are being modernized. However, photovoltaics is not losing its appeal – it is transforming from a mere feed-in system to a holistic energy management system. Those who act early, utilize intelligent combinations, and maximize self-consumption will still achieve worthwhile returns in this new era. The safe bet remains stable; only the rules of the game have changed.

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