| The ticking oil time bomb: Why a sudden price shock of up to $200 is still possible. | Despite the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the expected price collapse failed to materialize because China drastically reduced its imports. | Instead, Beijing is filling its refineries from gigantic strategic reserves, thus temporarily stabilizing the global market. | However, this buffer is dwindling daily, and inventories are declining at a record pace. | | If China has to buy massive amounts of oil again on the open market, a sharp price increase with global repercussions is imminent. | IEA approvals and US exports are only partially sufficient to fill the gap left by disrupted Gulf exports. | For Europe and the US, persistently high oil prices mean rising inflation, increased production costs, and the risk of recession. | | Political reactions such as export restrictions or US election cycles could further destabilize the situation. | Three scenarios range from rapid easing of the situation to prolonged shortages and dramatic escalation with extreme prices. Action is needed now: Businesses and policymakers must prepare for drastic market upheavals before the Chinese buffer is exhausted. [...]

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