Google's empire is faltering: Google spin-off strategies – What do the antitrust proceedings mean for the advertising business?

### Secret plan revealed: How Google is internally preparing for its own breakup ### More than just a fine: Why the US government really wants to break up Google ### A dam breaking for the tech world? What the verdicts against Google mean for all of us ###

Is Google's advertising monopoly coming to an end? These alternatives are already available

Google, the undisputed giant of the digital world, is at a crossroads. Following two landmark rulings in the US that classify the company as an illegal monopolist in internet search and advertising technology, a watershed moment looms that could shake the very foundations of the corporation: its breakup. The US government is demanding drastic measures to curb Google's market power and restore competition.

At the heart of this upheaval lies Google's core business – its multi-billion-dollar advertising operations, which account for roughly 75 percent of the total revenue of its parent company, Alphabet. Specifically, the US Department of Justice's demands target the spin-off of key business units, including the Chrome browser and, most notably, the entire Google Ad Manager division, which emerged from strategic acquisitions like DoubleClick and now dominates the online advertising market.

While Google officially announces its intention to appeal, arguing that a spin-off is technically almost impossible, internal processes suggest that preparations are already underway in Mountain View for the unthinkable. Plans to outsource the controversial advertising division are apparently already being finalized. This development could not only change Google itself, but also reshape the entire digital advertising landscape. For advertisers, publishers, and competitors, the crucial question now is: What will a future look like in which the advertising ecosystem is no longer solely controlled by Google, and what alternatives are available to fill the resulting gap?

Is the breakup of the advertising business now imminent? What is the current status of the antitrust proceedings against Google?

Google is currently facing several crucial antitrust disputes in the US that could fundamentally change the company's business model. In the past two years, Google has been classified as an illegal monopolist in two separate cases. These cases concern, firstly, its dominance in internet search and, secondly, its market dominance in online advertising technology.

The first trial concerned internet search and ended in August 2024 with a guilty verdict. A judge found that Google had established an illegal monopoly in internet search and related advertising, and had defended it with billions of dollars in payments. The company allegedly paid $26 billion to electronics manufacturers to establish its own search engine as the default option.

What role does the advertising business play in antitrust proceedings?

The advertising business is at the heart of the legal disputes, as it represents Google's most important source of revenue. The parent company, Alphabet, generates approximately 75 percent of its revenue from advertising. Of Alphabet's $350 billion in annual revenue in 2024, roughly three-quarters came from advertising income.

In April 2025, Google was convicted in a second antitrust case, this time for its market dominance in advertising technologies. Judge Leonie Brinkema concluded that the company had achieved a monopoly position in the ad server and ad exchange platforms through unfair competition for more than ten years. The US Department of Justice accused Google of using classic monopolization methods by eliminating competitors through acquisitions and controlling how transactions in the online advertising market were conducted.

What is the Google Ad Manager and why is it in the spotlight?

Google Ad Manager is the company's central advertising platform, combining various services for managing and delivering online advertising. The platform was created through the integration of several acquisitions, most notably the multi-billion dollar takeover of DoubleClick in 2007.

In acquiring DoubleClick, Google paid $3.1 billion in cash for the internet advertising company. At the time, this acquisition was the largest in Google's history and cost almost twice as much as the video platform YouTube. DoubleClick brought with it important technologies such as Ad Exchange (AdX) and DoubleClick for Publishers (DFP), which were later integrated into Google Ad Manager.

In addition to acquiring DoubleClick, Google also purchased Admeld, a yield optimizer in the auction-based media trading sector, for approximately $400 million in 2011. This acquisition further strengthened Google's position in the real-time bidding market.

What specific measures are being demanded against Google?

The US government is demanding drastic measures to restore competition. In the search engine lawsuit, the Justice Department is calling for the spin-off of the Chrome browser and an end to the multi-billion-dollar deals that have established Google as the default search engine. Furthermore, Google should be required to share search results and information with competitors for ten years.

In the advertising technology case, the US government is specifically demanding the spin-off of the Ad Manager division. This includes the Ad Server and Ad Exchange areas affected by the rulings. The prosecution argues that Google, through its control over multiple sides of the advertising market, has established a monopolistic position that can only be ended by breaking up the company.

How is Google preparing for a possible split?

Reports indicate that Google is already working to make its Ad Manager division viable as an independent company. These internal preparations have already become apparent externally. Last month, advertisers were irritated when they were contacted by Google Ad Manager employees about potential collaborations. This put the division in direct competition with another Google division, which is actually responsible for selling advertising to agencies.

Such internal competition only makes sense if the company is preparing to outsource the controversial department. These plans have been discussed internally at Google for years, as the department has been the focus of continuous criticism from competition authorities, and a conviction recently seemed only a matter of time.

What economic impact would a spin-off have?

A spin-off of the ad manager group would have relatively little financial impact on Google. The sale of advertising on third-party websites now accounts for only 8.7 percent of Alphabet's revenue. The ad manager group generates only a portion of that. By comparison, advertising sold through its own services, primarily the search engine, currently accounts for 57 percent of Alphabet's revenue.

According to research by Wedbush and an analysis of court documents, Ad Manager accounted for 4.1 percent of total revenue and 1.5 percent of operating profit in 2020. A sale of the Ad Manager group could therefore be relatively easy for the company to absorb, especially since it would also eliminate a long-standing point of contention with regulators.

How would an independent ad management department position itself in the market?

As an independent company, Google's Ad Manager division would still be significantly larger than direct competitors in advertising technology such as PubMatic or Magnite. These two companies are among the most important alternatives to Google's advertising platforms and offer supply-side platform solutions for publishers.

PubMatic enables premium publishers to unlock the full potential of their digital assets, offering modern user interfaces with comprehensive data integration. Magnite, formed from the merger of Rubicon Project and Telaria, is particularly attractive to smaller publishers due to its lack of setup fees. Both companies operate on a revenue-sharing model and support various advertising formats, including display, video, and connected TV.

With the goal of independence, Google's Ad Manager division could once again aggressively penetrate new markets. While it remains dominant in traditional online advertising on websites, it plays only a minor role in streaming TV advertising, with the exception of YouTube. Google has also recently fallen significantly behind in the sale of advertising in games.

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What challenges exist with connected TV and streaming?

Google faces particular challenges with connected TV. Streaming TV platforms like Uber and Roku criticize Google's tools for being designed more for small web publishers than for enterprise companies. Publishers also argue that they earn less through Google than through competitors because demand is weaker and innovations are implemented slowly.

At the same time, Google is expanding its position in the TV sector. With the Google TV Network, the company has created a platform for advertisers to place personalized ads on FAST channels. The network enables non-skippable ads on more than 125 linear channels and reaches more than 20 million monthly active users in the US via Google TV.

Competitors like Roku are also pursuing aggressive advertising strategies. Roku already displays ads on the home screen and is even experimenting with commercials that play before the home screen is reached. The company has even filed a patent to insert ads into HDMI inputs, meaning that ads could also be displayed on external devices like game consoles.

How is the European Union reacting to Google's market power?

The European Union is taking a different approach than the US. Reports indicate that the EU is close to concluding a four-year investigation into Google's advertising business with comparatively lenient penalties. An order to sell parts of the advertising business is no longer under consideration, nor are fines amounting to billions.

In the past, the European Commission caused a stir with hefty fines against Google, but had to conclude that the accompanying measures did little to change the company's dominance. More recently, the EU has increasingly relied on new laws such as the Digital Markets Act and the Digital Services Act, which generally impose stricter rules on large tech companies.

What impact will the Digital Markets Act have in Europe?

The Digital Markets Act, which came fully into force in March 2024, aims to regulate so-called gatekeepers ex ante and subject them to stricter regulations. These are large online platforms with a dominant market position that control access to key markets. Currently, seven platforms are classified as gatekeepers, including Google.

On April 23, 2025, the European Commission imposed sanctions under the DMA for the first time against Apple (€500 million) and Meta (€200 million) for various violations. Companies that violate the DMA regulations face hefty fines of up to ten percent of their global annual revenue.

Is the Digital Markets Act under pressure?

According to reports, the European Commission is currently reviewing all its investigations under the Digital Markets Act. The Financial Times reports that the Commission has put all investigations it has opened so far under the DMA to the test. No decisions will be made on potential fines during this period, although the actual work on the investigations continues.

This development may be related to political pressure from the US. The US government under the new presidency is intensifying its efforts with threats of tariffs, which also aim to override the regulations that are sanctioned with hefty fines. US tech companies like Apple, Meta, and Google are urging the new US president to take action against what they consider overzealous EU regulations.

What impact will the legal proceedings have on Google's share price?

The antitrust disputes are already noticeably impacting Google's share price. Following the court ruling in the advertising technology case, shares of Google, a subsidiary of the US corporation Alphabet, fell by as much as 2.1 percent at one point. Uncertainty about the potential consequences of the proceedings is leading to continued volatility in the stock market.

Advertising remains of central importance to Google. In 2024, Google once again generated over $200 billion in advertising revenue. With a market share of over 90 percent, the tech giant's search engine is the global market leader. This dominant position allows Google to raise its prices for advertisers without fear of negative consequences.

How is the global advertising market developing?

Google and Meta dominate the global digital advertising market with a combined market share of nearly 50 percent. Google holds a 27.4 percent share of the worldwide digital advertising market, while Meta is in second place with 21.9 percent. Amazon, in turn, holds an 8.5 percent market share.

The largest share of Google's revenue comes from search engine results. In the area of ​​search ads, Google remains the dominant player with a projected revenue of over $157 billion in 2024 and a market share of 55.6 percent. In the area of ​​display advertising, Google's global business is expected to grow to $31.85 billion.

What technical challenges arise during a spin-off?

Google argues that a forced spin-off of its advertising technology division is technically impossible. The company claims that the code will not function outside of Google and that a complete rewrite would be necessary. This argument is part of Google's defense strategy against the court-ordered measures.

Instead, Google is offering to address competition concerns by changing how its platforms function and investing more in their infrastructure. For example, Google could open its real-time auctions to third parties and give customers more control over how they market their advertising space. Whether such concessions will be enough to prevent a breakup remains to be seen.

What does the future hold for Google's advertising business?

The future of Google's advertising business will depend significantly on the outcomes of the ongoing legal proceedings. A follow-up hearing regarding specific remedies in the search engine lawsuit is scheduled for April 2025. A decision on measures in the advertising technology lawsuit is expected starting in September.

Google has already announced that it will appeal all rulings. The company will undoubtedly exhaust all available legal avenues to prevent a breakup. At the same time, Google is working on new technologies and business models that are less susceptible to antitrust criticism.

The development of artificial intelligence and automated advertising systems will continue to transform the business. With Performance Max and other AI-powered campaign formats, Google is increasingly relying on automation and machine learning. While these technologies reduce operational complexity, they also increase the strategic demands on data quality and creative strategy.

What alternatives are available for advertisers and publishers?

The advertising technology market already offers several alternatives to Google's platforms. Publishers can rely on supply-side platforms such as PubMatic, Magnite, or OpenX. These providers enable publishers to market their inventory through various demand partners and thereby achieve higher revenues.

PubMatic offers a modern user interface with comprehensive data integration and advanced targeting options via the Connect platform. Magnite, formed from the merger of Rubicon Project and Telaria, is particularly attractive for smaller publishers and offers excellent customer support with no setup fees. OpenX focuses on video monetization and real-time bidding with detailed audience segmentation.

The fragmentation of the advertising market could be further intensified by a potential spin-off of Google's ad manager division. Publishers and advertisers would benefit from increased competition and innovation, but would also have to manage more complex technology stacks. The industry is already preparing for these changes and developing new standards and technologies for a more decentralized advertising landscape.

The outcome of the antitrust proceedings will have a lasting impact not only on Google's business model, but on the entire digital advertising industry. Regardless of the specific results, it is clear that the balance of power in the online advertising market will fundamentally change in the coming years.

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