Turkey as a key strategic partner for Europe

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Published on: August 19, 2025 / Updated on: August 19, 2025 – Author: Konrad Wolfenstein

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Indispensable and unpredictable: Why Europe needs Turkey now more than ever

### Erdogan's super army: How Turkey is becoming the new military power on Europe's doorstep ### Values overboard? Why Germany is now supplying fighter jets to Erdogan after all ### Friend and foe at the same time: Turkey's risky double game between Putin and the West ### More than just drones: This new Turkish fighter jet challenges the US and Europe ###

No EU accession, but partners: Europe's new, pragmatic plan for Turkey

Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is increasingly positioning itself as a central player in the European security architecture. This development is not accidental, but the result of fundamental geopolitical shifts. With the changing global balance of power, uncertainty about the American security guarantee under successive US presidents, and the challenges posed by Russian aggression, Ankara sees a historic opportunity to underline its strategic importance for Europe.

The Turkish leadership argues that European security is simply unthinkable without Turkey. Erdogan backs up this position with concrete figures: Turkey has NATO's second-largest army with 355,000 soldiers, significantly more than France's 202,000 or Great Britain's 141,000. It is a battle-tested army with practical operational experience in various conflict zones, from Syria and Libya to supporting Ukraine.

What distinguishes Turkish foreign policy from the European approach?

Turkey is already practicing what Europe is only just striving for: strategic autonomy. This independence stems from the country's geographical location and military strength. Ankara controls access to the Black Sea through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits and projects its power into the South Caucasus and the Middle East.

Turkish foreign policy is characterized by a pragmatic balancing act. While Ankara supports Ukraine with weapons and defends its territorial integrity, it simultaneously maintains profitable trade relations with Russia. This "cold-blooded seesaw policy" allows Turkey to both present itself as an honest broker to the war opponents and participate in meetings of the "Coalition of the Willing," which discusses military security guarantees for Ukraine.

What role does the Eurofighter deal play in German-Turkish relations?

The sale of 40 Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to Turkey, approved in July 2025, marks a significant turning point in Germany's Turkey policy. After more than two years of hesitation, the German government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz gave the green light for the deal, even though a Turkish court had recently sentenced Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a prominent critic of Erdogan, to prison.

This decision highlights the shift from a values-based to an interest-driven foreign policy. European states are increasingly pursuing a pragmatic power politics with their difficult partner on the Bosporus, replacing a generally critical stance toward Ankara due to human rights violations and democratic deficits.

The Eurofighter deal also confirms Turkey's strategy of diversifying its arms procurement. The share of American imports has declined sharply over the past ten years, while Spain, Italy, and Germany have become the new leaders. For Turkey, the EU's SAFE loan program for joint arms procurement, which, with its €150 billion, is also open to candidate countries like Turkey, represents a particular incentive.

How is the Turkish arms industry developing into a global player?

Turkey has become a major arms exporter over the past two decades. Exports rose to a record $7.15 billion in 2024 and are expected to reach $8 billion in 2025. This development is the result of strategic investments and the direct subordination of the Defense Industries Agency to President Erdogan in 2018.

Turkish drone manufacturers such as Baykar, whose Bayraktar TB2 drones have been sold to more than 35 countries and used in conflicts from Ukraine to Libya, have been particularly successful. The company is expanding internationally through the acquisition of the Italian company Piaggio Aerospace and a joint venture with Leonardo called LBA Systems.

A milestone in the Turkish defense industry is the fifth-generation KAAN fighter jet, being developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries. Serial production is scheduled to begin in 2028, and Turkey has already signed an initial export contract with Indonesia for 48 KAAN jets, valued at approximately $15 billion. This project makes Turkey one of the few countries capable of developing and exporting fifth-generation fighter jets.

What strategic interests does Turkey pursue in the Black Sea?

The Black Sea occupies a central position in Turkish security strategy. Through the Montreux Treaty, Turkey controls the only access routes between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. This position gives Ankara considerable geopolitical influence, especially since the Russian attack on Ukraine.

Turkey and Russia have established a kind of informal condominium in the Black Sea region, designed to exclude external actors. This shared vision of a regional order is evident in the way Turkey interpreted the Montreux Treaty after the outbreak of war and how the Black Sea Grain Initiative came about. Nevertheless, Ankara maintains a double balance: It supports Ukraine's territorial integrity while maintaining profitable relations with Russia.

For Turkey, it is crucial that it wants a Russian neighbor that is strong enough to maintain regional order, but does not plunge into revanchist, belligerent adventures. This position allows Ankara to position itself as an indispensable mediator in the region.

How do European positions towards Turkey differ?

European countries pursue different approaches in their relations with Türkiye. Analysts at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) distinguish three groups of states: friends, partners, and rivals.

The friends include Poland, Spain, Italy, and the non-EU member United Kingdom. These countries maintain close security policy and, in some cases, defense-related cooperation with Turkey and would like to further deepen relations with Ankara. For example, the United Kingdom recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the Eurofighter Typhoon sale and is working closely with Turkey on various defense projects.

The partners include Sweden, Finland, and Germany, which favor a cautious rapprochement for security policy reasons. Berlin must balance the interests of defense policy with those of civil society critical of Erdogan. This balancing act is reflected in the hesitant but ultimately positive decision to sell the Eurofighter.

The rivals are Greece, Cyprus, and France, which view European rapprochement with Turkey with reservations or even hostility. Historical and current conflicts play a decisive role in this. France maintains close arms cooperation with Greece and is aware of the cost of alienation from Turkey, especially since its close security cooperation with the pro-Turkish Great Britain.

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Türkiye between conflict and cooperation: Europe's geopolitical challenge

What conflicts exist between Turkey and its neighbors?

Tensions between Turkey and its European neighbors are concentrated primarily in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea. The central point of contention is territorial disputes over maritime borders and natural resource deposits.

Turkey claims large areas of sea off its coast as part of its "Mavi Vatan" (Blue Homeland) doctrine. If implemented, these claims would result in the Aegean Sea as far as the east coast of Crete and parts of the Mediterranean far south of Cyprus becoming part of Turkey's exclusive economic zone. The Greek islands in the area would become enclaves.

Turkish exploration plans for gas deposits in disputed maritime areas are particularly explosive. Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt are collaborating on the exploitation of natural resources in the Mediterranean – deliberately without Turkey. This exclusion reinforces Ankara's motivation to create facts through its own activities.

Turkey has not yet joined the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and threatens war if Greece applies it. This uncompromising stance leads to recurring tensions that can flare up again and again.

How does Turkish migration policy function as a means of pressure?

The 2016 EU-Turkey agreement forms the foundation of migration policy cooperation between Europe and Turkey. Turkey committed to controlling irregular migration to the West and taking back migrants who enter the EU through its territory.

In return, Turkey received a six billion euro aid package to support the more than three million Syrian refugees in its country. In addition, the EU promised visa-free entry for Turkish citizens, a renewal of the customs union, and a revival of EU accession negotiations.

The agreement initially had an impact: The number of crossings to the Greek islands plummeted from tens of thousands to just a few hundred per month. At the same time, migration shifted to land routes, with Turkish security forces preventing more than 100,000 irregular border crossings in the border town of Edirne alone between 2017 and 2018.

However, President Erdogan does not shy away from using migrants as a means of pressure against the EU when it seems appropriate. This instrumentalized migration policy underscores Europe's dependence on Turkish cooperation in this sensitive area.

What role does Turkey play in the future European security architecture?

The debate about a new European security architecture is gaining momentum given the uncertainty surrounding the American role. Turkey is positioning itself as an indispensable partner in this new order, arguing that European defense would not be functional without Turkish participation.

Ankara offers concrete military capabilities: over 480,000 battle-tested soldiers, an advanced defense industry, and strategic geographical positions. Turkey is open to sending troops to Ukraine for a European peacekeeping mission and has already established itself as an important mediator in various conflicts.

The EU's SAFE instrument, adopted in May 2025, allows Turkey, as a candidate for accession, to participate in joint procurement projects. However, unlike goods from Ukraine, defense products from Turkey do not automatically count toward the "European" share. This distinction reflects the ongoing reservations toward Ankara.

How does Turkish domestic politics influence European relations?

Turkey's authoritarian domestic policy, characterized by the dismantling of democracy, rule-of-law deficits, and repression, significantly hampers the deepening of bilateral cooperation. The European Parliament reaffirmed in 2025 that Turkey's EU accession process cannot be resumed under the current circumstances.

Turkey's geopolitical and strategic importance cannot compensate for democratic setbacks, and the EU accession criteria are non-negotiable. At the same time, Europeans recognize Turkey's strategic importance and its growing presence in areas crucial to international security.

Despite close economic ties, normative differences exist between Germany and Turkey. There is no consistent strategy to overcome them; instead, the Turkish government relies on industrial policy compensation. Leading European politicians have recently become significantly less vocal in their criticism of Turkey's growing democratic deficits, weakening the remaining political influence of Turkish opposition parties and civil society organizations.

What alternatives to full EU membership are being discussed?

Since full EU membership for Turkey has become unthinkable for the foreseeable future and hardly seems desirable for Turkey anymore, new forms of cooperation are emerging. This is where the first outlines of an EU alliance policy are emerging that aims not at political integration but at pragmatic cooperation.

One alternative being discussed is a security partnership with Ankara instead of full membership. This could benefit both Turkey and the EU by promoting common interests in matters of security and stability in the region. A customs union or visa facilitation are also conceivable in the short term if the situation improves.

With the SAFE Regulation, the EU Commission has proposed that all candidate countries, including Turkey, could participate in joint procurement projects. This could mark the beginning of a new alliance strategy that offers various countries such as Turkey, Japan, South Korea, or even India points of contact through partnership agreements.

What are the long-term prospects for EU-Turkey relations?

The future of EU-Turkey relations will depend significantly on the ability of both sides to find pragmatic compromises. Turkey has already achieved what Europe is still striving for: strategic autonomy and the ability to pursue an independent foreign policy.

Ankara's geopolitical double-dealing between various partners and its refusal to commit to a particular side reflects a trend among regional powers seeking to respond flexibly to geopolitical challenges and pursue their own independent interests. Turkey rejects being drawn into the great power rivalry between the US and China.

For Europe, this means that it must learn to deal with a self-confident partner that pursues its own interests. Traditional EU enlargement models do not work for Turkey, which is why new forms of cooperation must be developed.

A strategic rethink in European policy toward Turkey is necessary. This should aim to promote economic stability, strengthen Turkey's security integration in Europe, and counter Ankara's strategic rapprochement with Moscow or Beijing. Future cooperation should be clearly linked to conditions such as democracy, the rule of law, and human rights.

This development demonstrates that, despite all their differences, Europe and Turkey remain dependent on each other. The challenge lies in finding a balance between strategic interests and democratic values that satisfies both sides and contributes to stability in the region.

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