Dual-use logistics as a key element to make espionage via supply routes more difficult

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Danger in the gray zone: Russia's hybrid war reaches Germany – drones as a weapon of espionage

In the heart of Germany, across key transport routes and near Bundeswehr bases, an invisible conflict is taking place. Russian drones are systematically monitoring German supply routes and specifically spying on the logistics of arms deliveries to Ukraine. These operations, with sightings in the triple digits, are no coincidence, but a deliberate act of hybrid warfare. As NATO's logistical hub and Ukraine's second-largest supporter, Germany is firmly in the Kremlin's crosshairs.

But this aerial espionage is just the tip of the iceberg. It is part of a comprehensive strategy aimed at blurring the lines between war and peace and destabilizing Western democracies from within. With a broad toolbox of disinformation, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, economic pressure, and the targeted recruitment of agents, Russia deliberately operates in legal and political gray areas. The primary goal is not open confrontation, but the undermining of social cohesion and state order.

This article sheds light on the threatening reality of this new form of conflict. It analyzes how Russian drones are challenging Germany's security architecture, Germany's strategic importance in this conflict, and the true vulnerability of our critical infrastructure. It also presents innovative defense strategies—from modern drone defense systems to intelligent dual-use logistics and international cooperation—that are necessary to effectively counter the growing hybrid threat. It's a battle that's not taking place on a distant front, but here and now.

The threatening reality of hybrid warfare: How Russian drones monitor German supply routes

Modern warfare has undergone fundamental changes since the end of the Cold War. While in the past, military conflicts were generally characterized by clear front lines and open combat, today's threat landscape is characterized by a new dimension of conflict: hybrid warfare. This form of warfare deliberately blurs the boundaries between war and peace and utilizes a variety of means that extend far beyond the traditional military spectrum.

The nature of hybrid warfare

Hybrid warfare describes a flexible mix of regular and irregular, symmetric and asymmetric, military and non-military means of conflict, deployed openly and covertly. This type of warfare aims to blur the binary distinctions between war and peace established by international law and deliberately operates in gray areas where the allocation of responsibility is difficult.

The term was first defined in its current sense in 2005 by US Marine officer and military theorist Frank G. Hoffman and became widespread in German-speaking countries in 2014 due to Russia's military interventions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The Russian leadership deployed troops without insignia, thus establishing a new paradigm of warfare.

Hybrid warfare is a creative combination of different means, with the focus on the civilian sphere and the primary target of attack being state order and social cohesion. This type of conflict management utilizes a very broad toolbox, in which the military is only one instrument among many. These tools are precisely combined to allow hybrid actors to operate in selected gray areas.

Elements of hybrid warfare

Modern hybrid warfare encompasses a variety of elements that are systematically combined. Among the most important are disinformation and propaganda campaigns, conducted as information warfare. These aim to influence public opinion and sow confusion. Reflexive control is another key element, which attempts to influence adversary state decisions by manipulating perceptions.

Cyberattacks and acts of sabotage against critical infrastructures are another component of the hybrid strategy. These can range from disrupting communication networks to physically damaging energy supply facilities. Economic pressure and the exploitation of energy supplies are also used as leverage.

A particularly perfidious element is the targeted recruitment of individuals with connections to the target country. Russian intelligence agencies attempt to establish a relationship or a basis of trust and specifically target individuals with Russian roots, ethnic German repatriates, or people with ties to Russia. This strategy exploits existing social and cultural connections to gain influence.

The current threat situation in Germany

The intensity of hybrid threats against Germany has increased significantly since the beginning of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. The Military Counterintelligence Service has registered a sharp increase in cases of espionage and hybrid measures. The approach is described as more massive and aggressive, with Russian intelligence services operating in ways familiar during the Cold War and expanding their toolbox beyond that.

The number of suspected cases has practically doubled within a year. As a logistical hub for NATO troop movements and an active NATO partner, Germany is firmly in the sights of foreign intelligence services. This strategic position makes the country a particularly attractive target for hybrid attacks.

Espionage and surveillance by drones

A particularly worrying aspect of the current threat landscape is the systematic surveillance of German supply routes by Russian drones. According to media reports, Russia and its allies are deliberately spying on military transport routes to monitor arms deliveries to Ukraine. These activities extend particularly to routes in eastern Germany used to deliver military supplies to Ukraine.

Western intelligence agencies assume that Russia is well informed about which arms manufacturers and conglomerates produce for Ukraine and how relevant the products and quantities of weapons are to the country's defensive war. This detailed knowledge enables the Russian armed forces to adapt their strategies accordingly and identify potential vulnerabilities.

Intelligence officials report that drone overflights are well into the triple digits this year. The Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) confirms the drone overflights and cites a significant increase since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This systematic reconnaissance extends not only to transport routes but also to Bundeswehr locations and US military bases, including Ramstein in Rhineland-Palatinate and locations near Wiesbaden, Stuttgart, and Bavaria.

The challenge of drone defense

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius appears unsurprised by the reports of drone espionage, describing the situation as a constant game of cat and mouse, of a technical nature, between what drone developers are doing and what can be done to counter it. Determining where drones are being controlled from is often very difficult, which further exacerbates the challenge.

The Bundeswehr is not responsible for monitoring civilian territory or road connections in Germany with regard to drones. This creates a gray area that is systematically exploited by Russian actors. While the protection of military installations has been strengthened and various drone interception techniques are being developed, comprehensive surveillance of German airspace remains a complex task.

Modern drone defense systems utilize a combination of technologies. Advanced radar systems, electro-optical sensors, and acoustic detectors enable early detection and tracking of drones. Jamming and decoy maneuvers can disrupt drone communication and navigation, while interceptor drones with snares offer another option.

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Germany as a strategic target

Due to its geographical location and its role in NATO, Germany occupies a key position in the European security architecture. The country acts as a central hub for military transport and supply deliveries to NATO's eastern flank and Ukraine. This strategic importance makes Germany a prime target for hybrid attacks.

The Kremlin views the Federal Republic of Germany as an adversary, as the country is the second-largest supporter of Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia. This perception leads to a direct confrontation with Russia that goes beyond Ukraine and is, in reality, about the creation of a new world order.

Military mobility and vulnerability

The concept of military mobility in Europe has taken on new urgency due to the war in Ukraine. The European Union and NATO are working intensively to improve military mobility and remove obstacles to the movement of military equipment and personnel. Plans include simplifying and standardizing customs formalities and clarifying the transport of so-called dangerous goods.

As a geostrategically central transit nation in Europe, Germany bears a special responsibility for military mobility. The country coordinates all troop movements via its hub in Germany and is responsible for ensuring smooth operations. However, this role also makes Germany a particularly vulnerable target for hybrid attacks.

Dual-use technologies and logistics solutions

A key element in making espionage via supply routes more difficult lies in the intelligent use of dual-use technologies and logistics solutions. The term "dual-use" refers to goods, software, and technologies that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. This dual use offers strategic advantages in concealing military activities.

Double dual-use logistics

The concept of dual-use logistics extends the traditional dual-use concept to include transport infrastructure. Dual-use transport infrastructure refers to systems such as railway lines, bridges, tunnels, and especially combined transport terminals that are designed, built, or upgraded to meet both the requirements of civilian freight transport and the specific needs of military transport.

This strategy offers several advantages in countering espionage. The mixing of civilian and military transport makes it significantly more difficult for reconnaissance drones to identify specifically military shipments. The use of existing civilian logistics networks obscures the actual transport routes and makes it more difficult for enemy reconnaissance to detect patterns.

Decentralized logistics strategies

Since the beginning of the major Russian invasion, Ukraine has established a decentralized logistics system for Western military equipment. Instead of loading all of the supplies onto one train, which might then become a lucrative target, they are distributed among different trains, often operating at night, and then transported to the appropriate deployment locations.

This decentralized approach significantly reduces the risk of attacks and makes it more difficult for espionage agencies to gather complete information about deliveries. Logistics forces rely on a network of many small depots instead of storing supplies in just a few central locations. This dispersion allows losses from attacks to be reduced and more easily absorbed.

The role of critical infrastructures

Critical infrastructures form the foundation for the functioning of modern, efficient societies. These include energy and water supplies, transport and traffic, as well as information technology and telecommunications. Ensuring the protection of these infrastructures is a core task for government and industry and a central theme of German security policy.

Threats to critical infrastructure

Hybrid attacks systematically target critical infrastructures to cause maximum societal damage. Networks or electronic connections of government agencies, administrations, hospitals, or universities are disrupted or paralyzed. Critical infrastructure systems, such as railway facilities, airports, or power plants, are attacked.

A particularly worrying phenomenon is the sabotage of undersea cables by so-called shadow fleets of hostile powers. These attacks aim to disrupt communications between European states and complicate the coordination of defense measures.

Protective measures and resilience

The German government has recognized the importance of protecting critical infrastructure and has initiated various measures. The Joint Critical Infrastructure Coordination Staff, which began its work in October 2022, is intended to provide the most up-to-date situation reports on the protection of critical infrastructure and facilitate structured communication between ministries.

The planned KRITIS umbrella law is intended to consolidate the physical protection of critical infrastructures into a uniform legal framework. Cross-sector minimum requirements for resilience measures and reporting obligations for disruptions are intended to further increase the resilience of critical infrastructures in Germany.

The answer to hybrid threats

Combating hybrid threats requires a whole-of-society approach that goes beyond traditional security agencies. The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki, of which Germany is a founding member, coordinates the European response to these challenges.

The Helsinki Centre as a coordination point

The Hybrid CoE is the only joint EU-NATO facility and is based in Helsinki. The center focuses on responses to hybrid threats under the auspices of the European Union and NATO. As a Do Tank, it is responsible for practical application, conducts training courses and exercises, and organizes workshops for policymakers.

The center defines hybrid threats as coordinated and synchronized actions that target the systemic vulnerabilities of democratic states and institutions using a variety of means. These attacks are designed to remain below clear thresholds for detection and appropriate countermeasures.

National security strategies

Germany has adapted its security strategy accordingly and is working on a comprehensive response to hybrid threats. The strategy includes both defensive and preventive measures. Defensive measures aim to increase the resilience of critical infrastructures and strengthen the intelligence services' reconnaissance capabilities.

Preventive measures include educating the public about hybrid threats and strengthening societal resilience against disinformation campaigns. Cooperation between state and private actors is particularly important, as many critical infrastructures are privately owned.

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Technological innovations in defense

The development of new technologies for countering hybrid threats is continuously advancing. Especially in the area of ​​drone defense, innovative solutions are emerging that combine various approaches. Modern systems use a combination of radar, camera, and acoustic sensors to detect and track drones.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning

The use of artificial intelligence and machine learning is revolutionizing the detection and defense of hybrid threats. AI-powered systems can detect patterns in large amounts of data that would not be obvious to human analysts. This capability is particularly important for identifying coordinated attacks that occur across multiple channels and time frames.

Machine learning enables defense systems to continuously adapt to new threats. Algorithms can learn from past attacks and improve their detection capabilities accordingly. This is especially important as hybrid actors are constantly evolving their tactics.

Sensor fusion and integrated systems

Modern defense systems rely on sensor fusion, which combines data from various sources to create a complete situational awareness. This technology enables robust detection even in challenging environments. The integration of various sensor technologies makes it more difficult for attackers to overcome all detection systems simultaneously.

International cooperation and coordination

Combating hybrid threats is an international challenge that can only be successfully accomplished through close cooperation between partners. Germany is working closely with its NATO and EU partners to develop common standards and procedures.

NATO initiatives

NATO has recognized hybrid threats as one of the most significant challenges for Alliance defense. The Alliance is continuously developing new strategies and procedures to counter these threats, with a focus on strengthening the resilience of its member states.

An important aspect is the development of early warning systems that enable hybrid attacks to be detected at an early stage and appropriate countermeasures to be initiated. NATO is also working on developing standards for assessing and classifying hybrid attacks.

EU measures

The European Union has developed a comprehensive security strategy, the Strategic Compass, that identifies hybrid threats as a key challenge. The EU is working on developing common tools to counter hybrid attacks and strengthen the resilience of its member states.

Coordination between the various EU institutions and agencies is particularly important. The European Commission, the European External Action Service, and specialized agencies are working closely together to develop a coherent response to hybrid threats.

Hybrid warfare: When security and freedom collide

Combating hybrid threats presents various legal and ethical challenges. The gray areas in which hybrid actors operate make it difficult to develop appropriate legal responses. At the same time, democratic states must ensure that their countermeasures do not violate the fundamental rights of their citizens.

International law and hybrid warfare

The application of international law to hybrid warfare is complex and controversial. Many hybrid attacks fall below the threshold that would justify a military response under international law. This creates an asymmetry in favor of attackers, who systematically exploit these gray areas.

The international community is working to adapt international law to the new realities of hybrid warfare. This involves developing new norms and standards that enable an appropriate response to hybrid attacks without violating the principles of international law.

Data protection and monitoring

Countering hybrid threats often requires extensive surveillance measures that may conflict with data protection and fundamental rights. Democratic states must strike a balance between security and freedom that ensures both effective protection and the protection of fundamental rights.

Protecting privacy in cyberspace and communications surveillance is particularly challenging. While new technologies offer better ways to detect threats, they also carry the risk of misuse.

The future of hybrid threats

Hybrid warfare will evolve and reach new dimensions in the coming years. Technological advances in areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology will create new opportunities for hybrid attacks.

Emerging Technologies

New technologies such as autonomous systems, quantum computing, and biotechnology will significantly expand the spectrum of possible hybrid attacks. Autonomous weapons systems can be used for acts of sabotage, while quantum computing could threaten encryption. Biotechnology offers opportunities for new forms of biological warfare.

Regulating these dual-use technologies presents the international community with major challenges. It is difficult to predict how and by whom these technologies might be used in the future, and whether technologies currently used only for civilian purposes might also be used or misused for military purposes in the future.

Preventive strategies

The development of preventive strategies will be crucial for successfully countering future hybrid threats. This encompasses both technological and societal measures. At the technological level, it is about developing robust and adaptable defense systems that can keep pace with the evolution of new threats.

At the societal level, strengthening resilience against disinformation and manipulation is crucial. This requires education and awareness, but also the development of new tools for detecting and combating disinformation campaigns.

Logistics as a weapon: New strategies against modern espionage

The systematic surveillance of German supply routes by Russian drones underscores the urgency of a comprehensive response to hybrid threats. Germany must continuously expand its defense capabilities, taking both technological and organizational measures.

The use of dual-use logistics solutions offers a promising approach to hampering espionage. By skillfully blending civilian and military transport, supply routes can be concealed and reconnaissance hampered. At the same time, decentralized logistics strategies must be developed that minimize the risk of attacks.

International cooperation is crucial for success in the fight against hybrid threats. The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki provides an important platform for coordinating European efforts. Germany should further expand its leadership role in this area and contribute to the development of common standards and procedures.

The legal and ethical challenges of hybrid warfare require new approaches and norms. Germany must strike a balance between effective protection and the preservation of democratic values. This is not only a technical but also a social task that affects all sectors of society.

The threat of hybrid warfare is real and will continue to grow in the coming years. Only through a comprehensive, coordinated, and adaptive response can democratic societies defend their security and their values. The time to act is now, as adversaries are already operating at full intensity in the gray areas of modern conflict.

Markus Becker

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