Soon a power shortage, despite the corona crisis –

Published on: August 18, 2020 / Updated on: October 12, 2021 – Author: Konrad Wolfenstein

Soon there will be a power outage – Image: ESB Professional|Shutterstock.com

The pace of photovoltaic expansion must be multiplied, otherwise a power shortage is imminent in 2023. Against the backdrop of recent social, economic, and political developments, the Bonn-based market and economic research company EUPD Research updated study it conducted last autumn in cooperation with the German Solar Association (BSW) and the innovation platform The smarter E.

The pace of photovoltaic expansion must be multiplied, otherwise there is a risk of an electricity shortfall in 2023. Against the background of the latest social, economic and political developments, the Bonn-based market and economic research company EUPD Research has updated a study prepared last autumn in cooperation with the German Solar Industry Association and the innovation platform The smarter E .

Multiply the pace of photovoltaic expansion – © German Solar Association

Market researchers warn of a power generation gap due to the slow expansion of renewable energies (RE) while simultaneously phasing out nuclear and coal power – a shortfall of 46 terawatt hours is already projected for 2023 – tripling the pace of photovoltaic expansion can prevent this power gap – BSW: Adjust the government's expansion targets upwards and remove solar market barriers

Researchers in Bonn warn that a gap in Germany's electricity supply could emerge as early as 2023. They argue that security of supply can only be guaranteed and climate targets achieved if the current pace of photovoltaic expansion is doubled from 2021 and tripled from 2022.

As a consequence of the economic crisis resulting from the Corona pandemic, market researchers at EuPD Research a decline in net electricity demand of four percent to just under 500 terawatt hours (TWh) for 2020. However, forecasts for the economic recovery already anticipate an increase in electricity consumption by the economy in 2021.

As a result of the phase-out of nuclear and coal power and only weak net expansion of onshore wind energy, market researchers predict that electricity generation will no longer be able to keep pace with rising electricity demand within three years at the latest. Despite the increased expansion of wind turbines in the North and Baltic Seas to 20 GW over the next ten years, an electricity generation gap of 46 TWh will already emerge in 2023. This gap will grow to 77 TWh by 2030, which corresponds to 12 percent of the electricity demand expected at that time (see also the graph).

“To avoid a power generation gap, the annual expansion of photovoltaics must be doubled from the current approximately 4 gigawatts per year to 8 gigawatts by 2021 and even tripled to 12 gigawatts from 2022 onwards. If, however, the legally mandated expansion of photovoltaics remains at 2.5 GW per year, a power gap will already arise in 2023,” commented Dr. Martin Ammon, Managing Director of EUPD Research , on the study results. Carsten Körnig, Managing Director of the German Solar Association (BSW), therefore appeals to the Federal Government: “It is time to increase the expansion targets in the Renewable Energy Sources Act accordingly. At the same time, all market barriers for solar technology must finally be removed. Anyone who says A and rightly phases out nuclear and coal power while simultaneously wanting to see more electricity or green hydrogen used, among other things, in the transportation sector, must now also say B and accelerate the expansion of renewable energies.”

“We are in the midst of a comprehensive transformation of energy systems. This transformation process urgently needs reliable and clear political framework conditions – only then will new growth opportunities and future-proof business models emerge for industry, trade and commerce,” adds Markus Elsässer, Managing Director of Solar Promotion GmbH and initiator of the most important innovation platform for the new energy world, The smarter E Europe .

Against the backdrop of recent social, economic and political developments, the Bonn-based market and economic research company EUPD Research the study was prepared last autumn in cooperation with the German Solar Association and the innovation platform The smarter E , in June 2020.

The aim of the study was to develop a realistic vision of the future of the German electricity market. In addition to modeling the German electricity market, the study examines the macroeconomic dimensions of the transformation and its impact on electricity prices. Load profiles and generation profiles on a 15-minute basis serve as the visualization level. The modeling approach follows the so-called energy policy triangle of environmental sustainability, economic efficiency, and security of supply.

Market researchers warn of a power generation gap due to the slow expansion of renewable energies and the simultaneous phasing out of nuclear power and coal – 46 terawatt hours will already be missing by 2023 – Tripling the pace of photovoltaic expansion can prevent a power shortfall – BSW: adjust government expansion targets upwards and remove solar market barriers

Bonn researchers warned that a gap in the German power supply could already arise in 2023. Only if the current pace of photovoltaic expansion were to be doubled from 2021 and tripled from 2022 could security of supply be guaranteed and the climate targets achieved.

As an effect of the economic crisis caused by the corona pandemic, the market researchers of EuPD Research predict a decline in net electricity demand by four percent to just under 500 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2020. However, forecasts for economic recovery suggest that the economy will already start to consume more electricity in 2021.

As a result of the nuclear and coal phase-out and due to the weak net expansion of onshore wind energy, market researchers predict that electricity generation will no longer be able to keep up with the rising demand for electricity in three years at the latest. Despite the increased expansion of wind turbines in the North and Baltic Seas to 20 GW in the next ten years, there will already be a power generation gap of 46 TWh in 2023. By 2030, this gap will grow to 77 TWh, which corresponds to 12 percent of the electricity demand expected at that time (see also chart).

“To avoid a power generation gap, the annual expansion of photovoltaics must be doubled from the current 4 gigawatts in 2021 to 8 gigawatts and even tripled to 12 gigawatts from 2022. If, on the other hand, the legally stipulated expansion for photovoltaics remains at 2.5 GW per year, there will already be an electricity gap in 2023,” comments Dr. Martin Ammon, Managing Director of EUPD Research , on the study results. Carsten Körnig, Managing Director of the German Solar Industry Association, therefore appeals to the Federal Government: "It is time to increase the expansion targets in the Renewable Energy Sources Act accordingly. At the same time all market barriers for solar technology must finally be removed. Anyone who says A and rightly wants to get out of nuclear and coal power and at the same time wants to see more electricity or green hydrogen in mobility, among other things, must now also say B and accelerate the expansion of renewable energies".

"We are in the middle of a comprehensive transformation of energy systems. This transformation process urgently needs reliable and clear political framework conditions - only then will new growth opportunities and sustainable business models emerge for industry, trade and commerce," adds Markus Elsässer, Managing Director of Solar Promotion GmbH and initiator of the most important innovation platform for the new energy world The smarter E Europe .

Against the background of the latest social, economic and political developments, the Bonn-based market and economic research company EUPD Research has updated the study “Energy turnaround in the context of the nuclear and coal phase-out – prospects in the electricity market up to 2040”, which was prepared last autumn in cooperation with the German Solar Industry Association and the innovation platform The smarter E , in June 2020.

The aim of the study was to draw up a realistic picture of the future of the German electricity market. In addition to modeling the German electricity market, the economic dimensions of the transformation and its effects on the electricity price are examined. Load curves and generation profiles on a 15-minute basis are used as the presentation level. The modeling approach follows the so-called target triangle of energy consisting of policy of environmental compatibility, economic efficiency and supply security.

Photo: BSW – German Solar Association, EuPD Research, The smarter E Europe

Photo: BSW – German Solar Association, EuPD Research, The smarter E Europe