The real reason why Saudi Arabia’s 170 km megalopolis “The Line” is failing – megalomania and lies: From 170 km to 2.4 km

From a future miracle to a symbol of failure: What really happened to “The Line”

It was supposed to be a revolution in urban life, the crown jewel of a nation in transition: "The Line," the 170-kilometer-long, futuristic ribbon city in the Saudi Arabian desert. Spectacular images and ambitious promises painted a picture of a new era, driven by the kingdom's oil billions and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's "Vision 2030." But the gleaming facade has developed deep cracks. The project of the century has become a symbol of shattered dreams and boundless megalomania.

Reality has brutally caught up with the ambitious plans. An unimaginable cost explosion, which catapulted estimates from $500 billion to almost $9 trillion, dwindling cash reserves, and a lack of international investors are forcing Saudi Arabia to radically change course. The result is a financial debacle and a drastic reduction of the project by over 98 percent. Instead of a metropolis for 1.5 million people, only a tiny fragment will be realized by 2030. This article sheds light on the background to the spectacular failure, analyzes the fatal miscalculations and management errors, and explains why the end of "The Line" is shaking up the kingdom's entire future strategy.

Everything is getting too expensive: The end of a megalomania – What actually happened to “The Line”?

Anyone who has followed the news in recent years will surely be familiar with the spectacular images of the planned Saudi megacity "The Line." This futuristic, 170-kilometer-long city in the desert was supposed to be the flagship of Saudi Arabia's transformation. But what has actually become of this project of the century?

The answer is sobering: Saudi Arabia has halted work on "The Line" and other major projects in the Neom complex. What was once hailed as a symbol of a new era has become a financial disaster that overwhelms even the kingdom's oil billions.

Why did the sheikhs fail?

The failure of "The Line" is symptomatic of a larger problem: a complete miscalculation of costs and feasibility. The entire Neom project was originally expected to cost approximately $500 billion. However, after internal audits, the cost estimates exploded.

An internal report obtained by the Wall Street Journal estimated the total cost at an astronomical $8.8 trillion. That's more than 25 times the annual Saudi Arabian national budget. Construction would extend from the originally planned 25 years to over 60 years, with completion not expected until 2080.

These figures illustrate the extent of the miscalculations. Even for an oil-rich country like Saudi Arabia, such sums are simply unaffordable. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund (PIF), which was supposed to finance the projects, had cash reserves of only $15 billion in September 2023—a fraction of what would be needed for the first phase alone.

How dramatic is the downsizing of the plans?

Reality forced Saudi Arabia to make drastic cuts. Instead of the originally planned 170 kilometers of "The Line," only 2.4 kilometers are to be completed by 2030—a reduction of more than 98 percent. The planned population for 2030 was scaled down from 1.5 million to fewer than 300,000.

These drastic cuts are more than just adjustments—they are an admission of failure. The project, once intended to serve as a testament to Saudi Arabia's ability to modernize, has become a symbol of megalomania and poor planning.

What are the reasons for the financial debacle?

Falling oil prices and budget deficits

Saudi Arabia is in a precarious financial situation. The kingdom needs an oil price of at least $96 per barrel to balance its budget. In fact, the break-even point is over $100 when accounting for spending on megaprojects. In fact, the oil price has been significantly lower in recent years, leading to significant budget deficits.

In the first half of 2025, Saudi Arabia recorded a budget deficit of 93 billion Saudi riyals ($24.8 billion), more than triple the previous year's deficit. Oil revenues fell by 24 percent, while spending on megaprojects continued to rise.

Lack of foreign investment

Saudi Arabia originally expected foreign investors to provide a large portion of Neom's financing. This hope proved unfulfilled. Foreign direct investment fell far short of expectations. In the first quarter of 2025, it even fell by seven percent compared to the previous quarter.

International skepticism toward Saudi megaprojects had several reasons: the kingdom's questionable human rights record, unrealistic plans, and, last but not least, doubts about the projects' feasibility.

Problems with the state investment fund

The Public Investment Fund (PIF), Saudi Arabia's main financier for the megaprojects, also came under pressure. Its cash reserves reached their lowest level in years in 2023. At the same time, the fund had to drastically reduce its profits – by 60 percent to just $6.9 billion in 2024.

What role did management errors play?

In addition to the macroeconomic problems, serious management errors also contributed to the failure. According to reports in the Wall Street Journal, there was systematic manipulation of financial reporting. Executives allegedly included unrealistic assumptions in business plans to conceal cost increases.

For example, planned hotel prices at the resorts were increased several times over to generate higher revenues on paper. A project manager who openly criticized these cost estimates was fired. The original architect of "The Line," Thom Mayne, wanted to inform the Crown Prince about the real costs, but was prevented from doing so by the Neom leadership.

These “mutual deceptions” meant that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was left in the dark for a long time about the true costs and problems of his prestige project.

How does failure affect other areas?

Sports events in danger

The failure of the megaprojects is already impacting other ambitious Saudi Arabian plans. The 2029 Asian Winter Games were to be held at "Trojena," a planned ski resort in the desert. Due to the delays, the Olympic Committee has already cautiously approached South Korea as a replacement host.

Similar problems are looming for the 2034 FIFA World Cup. A stadium for the World Cup was supposed to be built in "The Line." The project's construction halt is forcing Saudi Arabia to look for alternative venues.

Staff reductions and restructuring

The financial problems led to massive staff cuts. Reportedly, 1,000 Neom employees were relocated to Riyadh and hundreds more were laid off. Key managers were transferred from failed projects like "The Line" to more viable ventures like "Trojena."

This restructuring is more than just a reorganization—it's an admission that the original concept has failed. The viable projects will now be transferred to established government institutions that can implement them more efficiently.

What does this mean for Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

A strategy in the crisis

"The Line" was a central component of Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030," the plan to diversify the economy away from oil. The failure of this project calls the entire strategy into question. If even the billions of oil dollars aren't enough to finance such projects, how can economic transformation succeed?

Vision 2030 is already struggling with massive financing problems. The PIF has seen its profits plummet while the costs of its megaprojects have exploded. Analysts warn that if oil prices remain low, further drastic cuts will be inevitable.

Reality check for megalomania

The failure of "The Line" is a long-overdue reality check for Saudi Arabia's megalomania. For years, the Saudis presented spectacular plans – from flying taxis to artificial moons to desert ski slopes. These science-fiction dreams have now brutally collided with the reality of limited resources and the laws of physics.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who portrayed himself as a visionary, must now admit that his ambitions have proven unrealistic. Experts say he "gambled away his fortune."

What lessons can be learned from this?

The limits of the possible

The failure of "The Line" impressively demonstrates the limits of what is possible, even with enormous financial resources. Money alone is not enough to overcome the laws of physics, logistics, and economics. Projects of this magnitude require not only financial resources, but also realistic planning, competent implementation, and long-term sustainability.

Transparency vs. Autocracy

The manipulation of financial reporting highlights a fundamental problem of autocratic systems: When critical voices are suppressed and unpleasant truths are concealed, catastrophic errors can occur. In a more transparent system, the unrealistic plans could have been corrected earlier.

Sustainability before spectacle

The project also demonstrates that sustainable economic development is more important than spectacular showcase projects. Instead of investing billions in futuristic fantasies, a gradual and realistic diversification of the economy would have made more sense.

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What are the global implications?

Loss of confidence among investors

The failure of Saudi megaprojects has already led to a loss of confidence among international investors. The Saudi stock market is among the weakest in the world in 2025, as investors increasingly doubt the feasibility of Vision 2030.

Impact on the energy transition

Ironically, the failure of "The Line" could have positive implications for the global energy transition. The project was intended to serve as a showcase for a post-fossil fuel future and strengthen Saudi Arabia's image as a forward-thinking country. Instead, its failure highlights the limitations of such PR projects and draws attention to real, sustainable solutions.

New power relations in the Middle East

The financial debacle weakens Saudi Arabia's position in the Middle East. Other countries in the region could use the opportunity to strengthen their own role as regional economic centers. The United Arab Emirates, for example, is pursuing a more pragmatic approach to diversification.

What's next for Saudi Arabia?

Return to reality

Saudi Arabia will have no choice but to drastically downsize its plans. Instead of spectacular megaprojects, the country will have to focus on smaller, more feasible projects. The restructuring of Neom, in which viable projects are transferred to established institutions, is a first step in this direction.

Financial consolidation

The kingdom must stabilize its public finances. This likely means further cuts in megaprojects, a greater focus on profitable investments, and possibly higher debt. Public debt has already risen from $280 billion in 2023 to $320 billion in 2024.

New economic strategy

Vision 2030 needs a fundamental overhaul. Instead of focusing on spectacular projects, Saudi Arabia should focus on proven diversification strategies: education, infrastructure, small and medium-sized enterprises, and a gradual opening of society.

What do we learn about modern megaprojects?

The illusion of feasibility

"The Line" isn't the first failed megaproject in history, but it is one of the most spectacular. It demonstrates how dangerous the illusion of unlimited feasibility can be. In an age where technology seemingly pushes all boundaries, we sometimes forget the fundamental limitations of resources, time, and human ability.

Size isn't everything

The project also illustrates that size doesn't automatically equal success. Smaller, well-thought-out projects are often more sustainable and successful than gigantic undertakings. History is full of examples of failed megaprojects – from the confusion of tongues in Babylon to modern-day infrastructure disasters.

The meaning of realism

Ultimately, the failure of "The Line" teaches us the importance of realism in project planning. Visions are important, but they must be supported by a solid foundation of facts, expertise, and financial responsibility.

What parallels are there to other failed projects?

Historical comparisons

History is filled with similar examples of megalomania. The Jeddah Tower, another Saudi megaproject, was halted in 2018 when it was not even half completed. International examples such as Berlin's BER Airport and the Stuttgart 21 railway project also demonstrate how quickly megaprojects can get out of hand.

Common patterns

These projects share common patterns: unrealistic schedules, escalating costs, a lack of transparency, and an inability to make timely course corrections. Expert warnings are often ignored until it's too late.

What does this mean for the future of megaprojects?

New standards required

The failure of "The Line" could help establish new standards for megaprojects, including more rigorous feasibility studies, independent audits, transparent reporting, and realistic cost estimates.

The role of technology

While technology opens up many possibilities, this example also highlights its limitations. Not everything that is technically conceivable is also practically feasible or economically viable.

What impact does this have on global architecture?

End of gigantomania?

The failure of "The Line" could herald the end of an era of architectural megalomania. Instead of building ever higher, longer, and more spectacular buildings, architects and urban planners could once again focus more on sustainability, quality of life, and human needs.

New priorities in urban planning

The future of urban planning may not lie in spectacular megacities, but in well-thought-out, sustainable concepts that improve and expand existing cities.

What are the social consequences?

Loss of trust in visions

The failure of such megaprojects can lead to a general loss of confidence in grand visions and transformation projects. This is problematic, as the world faces major challenges such as climate change, which also require comprehensive transformations.

Lessons for the future

It's important to distinguish between unrealistic megalomaniacal projects and necessary but well-thought-out transformations. The energy transition, for example, is a necessary transformation, but it should be carried out through realistic planning and gradual implementation.

The failure of "The Line" is more than just the end of a spectacular construction project. It is a symbol of the limits of human ambition and a wake-up call for more realism in an age when anything seems possible. The lessons of this debacle should be incorporated into the planning of future major projects to prevent visions from becoming nightmares again.

The story of "The Line" ultimately shows that even the world's richest countries are not immune to the consequences of poor planning and unrealistic ambitions. At a time when many countries and companies are planning similarly ambitious projects, the Saudi debacle should serve as a warning: size alone does not guarantee success, and even billions in oil have their limits.

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