Published on: April 24, 2025 / update from: April 24, 2025 - Author: Konrad Wolfenstein
Still up to date: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella warns of AI bladder-economic effects remain behind expectations-Image: Xpert.Digital
Invested billions in AI - but where is the economic breakthrough?
Ki hype on the testing: Why the economic effect does not exist
In a remarkable change of course, Microsoft-CEO Satya Nadella publicly admitted that the economic effects of artificial intelligence have so far been significantly behind the high expectations. Despite billion-dollar investments in the tech industry in AI technologies, Nadella sees an alarming lack of measurable economic benefit and draws worrying parallels to the dotcom bubble of the early 2000.
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The discrepancy between AI hype and economic reality
In a much-noticed podcast interview, Nadella emphasized that the success of AI should not be measured against the ability to solve complex mathematical problems, but rather whether the technology has a noticeable influence on global economic growth. The Microsoft boss criticized the current discussion about general artificial intelligence (AGI) and described self-proclaimed AGI milestones as “senseless benchmark hacking”. This debate distracts from the actual challenges - namely the development of practical applications that actually advance companies.
Nadella illustrated its position with clear economic standards: "The global economy is growing by 10 percent. Suddenly productivity increases and the economy grows faster. If that happens, we are well as a industry". This statement underlines his conviction that without an inflation -adjusted economic growth of around ten percent AI does not meet its transformative promise.
The warning of a AI bladder
Nadella's comparison with the Dotcom bubble is particularly alarming. He warns that the tech sector could experience a similar crash without verifiable economic benefits of AI tools. He describes the current situation as a “wave of offers”: billions are invested in AI models and infrastructure, but the demand for these technologies is behind the expectations.
The Bank of America also draws parallels between the current AI boom and the Dotcom bubble of the 1990s. Although the technology is fascinating, it lacks sophisticated applications that enable real economic breakthrough. Nadella shares these concerns and emphasizes that the technology sector urgently has to demonstrate the real value of AI tools.
Integration problems as the main obstacle
Nadella sees a central problem in the practical application of AI technologies. Many companies have considerable difficulties in integrating AI sensibly into their business processes. This is shown by Microsoft's own AI-based “Copilot” assistance system, which received mixed feedback because many companies could not recognize the clear added value.
This problem caused Microsoft and other tech giants like Google to integrate their AI tools into existing software subscriptions instead of being able to successfully market them as independent products. Nadella compares the current state of artificial intelligence with the beginnings of the PC and emphasizes that AI also has to go through a development phase. In his view, the AI still lacks a groundbreaking application, which looks as transformative as e-mail programs or spreadsheet.
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The allegation of customer satisfaction
The criticism of Microsoft's AI implementations is not only from Nadella itself. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff recently claimed that Microsoft had "disappointed so many customers with artificial intelligence", especially in connection with Microsoft Copilot. Microsoft countered these allegations with numbers: In the last quarter alone, the company alone recorded a customer increase of over 60 percent at Copilot for Microsoft 365, and the number of daily users has more than doubled.
Contradictions: massive investments despite skepticism
A remarkable contradiction lies in Microsoft's own action. Despite Nadella's skepticism, the company positioned it early as the largest investor in Openaai and already put over twelve billion US dollars in the company. At the same time, Microsoft states to achieve annual sales rate of $ 13 billion with its AI products and services, which significantly exceeds the target of $ 10 billion.
For the first quarter of 2025, Microsoft plans investment expenditure of $ 20 billion, in the second quarter it should even be $ 22.6 billion - a new record value. These massive investments are in a certain amount of tension with Nadella's public warnings.
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Beware of further investments
Despite the enormous investments, Microsoft apparently is more careful with further engagements. Openai can also accept capital from other donors, and Microsoft develops its own cost -effective models in order to become more independent. Due to the current race for energy and computing power, Nadella expects an oversupply of computing capacity in the coming years and speculates for falling prices from 2027/2028.
Realism instead of hype
Nadella calls for a more realistic view of AI development. It is not enough to simply build up computing capacity and hope that the demand will follow. Instead, the technology must create real customer benefits, and supply and demand should be in balance from a certain point.
Contrary to the general expectation, Nadella does not see the technology industry as the main profiteer of the AI revolution. In his opinion, the real winners are companies from the broad industry that AI naturally use to increase productivity. For a real AI-driven progress, comparable to the industrial revolution, growth rates of five to ten percent are necessary-far more than the current two percent in developed countries.
Time for a reality check in the AI sector
Satya Nadella's critical statements mark an important moment in AI development. As CEO, one of the largest tech companies in the world that itself invests massively in AI, his warnings signal the need for a reality check. The sheer ability of AI to manage complex tasks is not sufficient - the demonstrable economic added value is decisive.
Without this measurable economic benefit, the current investments in AI could run into nothing and a bubble similar to the Dotcom era could be created. It remains to be seen whether the tech industry takes this warning seriously and focuses on practical applications that offer real added value and can actually promote global economic growth.
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