Italy's military logistics and the military turn of Giorgia Meloni: Is Italy really ready for the NATO

Why does I have the question of Italy's military willingness as an observer?

As someone who pursues the current geopolitical developments, I keep asking myself the question: Is Italy really prepared for a NATO serial case? This question is particularly concerned with me as Italy, as a southern anchor country, has a different threat perception than the states on the eastern flank. While Germany and Poland mainly look at the Russian threat from the east, Italy's strategic focus is primarily on the Mediterranean and North Africa.

The Meloni government is facing a complex dilemma: on the one hand, it must fulfill NATO obligations and demonstrate solidarity with the eastern alliance partners. On the other hand, the country is struggling with structural military weaknesses, especially the army, and a tense budget situation, the drastic increase in defense expenditure.

How does Italy perceive the current threat situation?

If I take a closer look at Italian security policy, it becomes clear that Rome evaluates the threat of Russia differently than many other NATO partners. Italy is not primarily threatened by a direct Russian invasion, but by the destabilizing effects of Russian activities in the Mediterranean.

The Italian leadership is particularly concerned about the Russian military presence in Libya. General Vincenzo Camporini, a former Italian chief of staff, urged: "The opening of a Russian military base in Bengasi would be a serious strategic threat to the security of the Mediterranean". This assessment reflects how Italy perceives the threat geographically and strategically differently.

At the same time, Italy emphasizes its role as a “strong point on the south flank of NATO”. The Italian armed forces focus on "contributing to the stability along the south flank of the alliance", which illustrates their strategic priority setting. However, this focus on the south does not mean that Italy is completely neglected – the country contributes to NATO reinforcement in the Baltic States and provides troops for airspace monitoring.

What specific military contributions does Italy do for Ukraine support?

If I look at Italy's arms deliveries to Ukraine, a picture of modest but quite relevant support shows. Italy has delivered up to 60 armored hinges M109, several SIDAM-25 anti-aircraft armor and transport tank Puma 6 × 6. According to the open source intelligence, four Puma wheel tanks and five Sidam tanks were destroyed in the fights, which confirms the actual use of these systems.

In addition, Italy plans a “huge arms delivery” of 400 M113 troop transporters to Ukraine. According to Defense Minister Crosetto, these vehicles, although older, can “cross forests and rough terrain” and are therefore quite suitable for the Ukrainian conditions.

However, what makes me think is the reluctance to deliver. One reason for the limited weapons aid is that "the Italian army lacks material". This indicates structural problems that go beyond the pure willingness to support Ukraine.

What about the financial situation and defense editions of Italy?

The numbers speak a clear language: Italy spent 1.49 percent of his GDP for defense in 2024, which is significantly below the NATO target of two percent. At 38 billion euros, Italy is far behind other large European NATO partners.

The situation becomes particularly problematic in view of the new NATO requirements. The NATO member states have undertaken to spend five percent of their GDP for defense and security by 2035. This is a huge challenge for Italy, which already has difficulties in the two percent goal.

It is interesting to do Italy's creative approach to this challenge: Rome plans to declare civilian infrastructure projects as defense spending, including the planned 13.5 billion euro bridge over the street of Messina. This “dual -use” argumentation shows how Italy tries to meet NATO requirements without excessive burden on the state budget.

What modernization plans do Italy pursue for its armed forces?

Despite the financial restrictions, Italy has initiated ambitious modernization plans. The government plans to invest 25 billion euros in the modernization of the armed forces, which is a significant effort.

Air forces: F-35 as a backbone

Italy plans to buy 115 f-35 fight jets, which would make the largest F-35 fleet in Europe. The latest order comprises 25 additional F-35 (15 F-35A and 10 F-35B) worth $ 7 billion. For comparison: Germany is only planning 35 F-35 jets.

In addition, 24 new Eurofighers of Tranche 4 are obtained to replace the older machines. These investments show that Italy modernized ambitious in the air forces.

Marine: strength in the Mediterranean

The Italian navy is already an impressive force. Italy "has one of the largest and most powerful marine in the Mediterranean" and "has modernized them extensively in recent years". The procurement of two new Fremm Evo frigates for 1.5 billion euros underlines these modernization efforts.

Heer: The largest weak point

This is the main problem: "The army is the partial dispute that lags behind. Only about 50 of the 200 Italian Ariete fighting tanks are operational, which illustrates the material weakness.

However, Italy plans a comprehensive renewal

380 new battle tanks KF51 Panther should replace the outdated ariets, an additional 1,050 lynx kf41. This procurement takes place via a joint venture between Rheinmetall and Leonardo with a total volume of around 30 billion euros.

How does Italy plan to expand its staff?

Another important aspect is the planned personnel increase. Italy wants to increase its army for 40,000 soldiers to around 135,000 men. This plan is to be implemented between 2030 and 2033 and is partially financed from EU funds.

Italy already has a considerable overall strength: 340,000 men and women under weapons – theoretically. This number includes the Carabinieri (110,000), Guardia di Finanza (over 60,000) and the coast guard (over 10,000), which have all combatate status.

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What role does Italy play in NATO missions worldwide?

Italy's contribution to NATO goes far beyond the pure material thickness. Italy is “in NATO leading to the quality and quantity” of its measures and “main payers for the missions of the Atlantic Alliance”.

Italy is particularly committed in Kosovo: With around 1,000 units stationed in Kosovo, Italy is the main contribution country of the KFOR mission. This underlines Italy's historical responsibility for the Balkan region, which is considered “of crucial importance”.

Italy offers 7,500 soldiers in missions from NATO, EU and UN, significantly more than Germany with 3,500. This shows that, despite limited resources, Italy makes a disproportionate contribution to international missions.

How do other NATO partners deal with similar challenges?

In order to better classify Italy's situation, it is worth comparing with other NATO partners. Germany and France have invested similar sums in their armed forces for over 30 years (1993-2022): Germany $ 1,408.8 billion, France 1,401.39 billion.

It is interesting that “Germany and France invest their military spending overall more efficiently than the United Kingdom”. This indicates that it is not just about the amount of expenses, but about their effective use.

"In the past, France has entertained a military budget comparable to Germany, but thus built up a more powerful army". This realization shows that Italy has opportunities to achieve more with limited means.

Why does Italy hesitate to implement NATO requirements?

Italy has several causes. "In Italy, the Ukraine war is not perceived as an immediate threat", since the country is "geographically and culturally further away from Ukraine".

Politically, the situation is complex: "In the Italian opposition and there are very strong pacifist trends in the population and only little support for the increase in military spending". This domestic reality significantly makes drastic upgrading measures significantly difficult.

Meloni has therefore chosen a cautious communication strategy: "'Upgrading is not the right word,' she said after the summit". Instead, she emphasizes that “raw materials, cyber security and critical infrastructure” are also concerned.

What are the practical problems in implementation?

The biggest challenges are in detail. Italy has already announced that it wants to reach the two percent goal by 2025, but reality looks different. According to current estimates, Italy will not achieve this goal in 2025.

A main problem lies in high public debt: "Italy can hardly make more debt", while Germany can upgrade the Bundeswehr through additional debts.

The defects are particularly evident in the army: “There is a lot of catching up for catching up and financing in particular”. The equipment for 340,000 soldiers is simply not available, which relativizes the theoretical personnel strength.

How does Italy evaluate its strategic priorities?

Italy consciously sets different accents than the Eastern European NATO partners. "Just as the pressure is on Germany to take on a leading role on the eastern flank, Italy is responsible for the south flank".

This strategic orientation is entirely justified: "The Mediterranean is an important traffic and supply path for Europe, and the North African countries are important energy suppliers". In addition, there are “topics in the region that can be a threat to NATO countries such as terrorism, weapons smuggling and illegal migration”.

What progress are already recognizable?

Despite all the problems, positive developments are recognizable. Italy has officially committed itself to reaching the NATO goal of five percent GDP by 2035, even if it insists on “a period of at least ten years”.

The modernization programs are ongoing: The first rifle armor Lynx KF41 arrived in the Italian test center on December 31, 2024, and the F-35 deliveries are underway.

"Italy is the only southern NATO state that can build a credible military power", as can be seen from various expert analyzes. The combination of strong navy, modernized air force and the planned army improvements could actually make Italy one of the leading European military mights.

What does this mean for the NATO alliance of Italy?

The answer to the original question is complex. Italy is only partially prepared for a NATO serial case, but has initiated ambitious plans to improve its skills.

The strengths are clearly in the air and sea area. At 115 F-35, Italy will have the largest fleet of modern fighter jets in Europe, and the navy is already a respectable force in the Mediterranean. The Italian armaments industry with Leonardo and the cooperation with Rheinmetall shows that the country is technically competitive.

The weaknesses focus on the army and the financing. The planned 30 billion euros for new tanks are ambitious, but the financing is not yet fully secured. The five percent goal of NATO will be an enormous challenge for Italy, which will only be managed by creative bookkeeping and EU support.

Italy will act as a specialized partner than an all-round military molitant. Its strengths lie in the control of the Mediterranean, the air support with modern F-35 and the stabilization of the south flank. Italy is currently only to a limited extent for classic national defense or larger soil operations, but is working intensively on improving these skills.

The strategic partnership with Germany (Rheinmetall-Leonardo) and the EU integration of defense planning show the way to a European defense architecture in which Italy brings its specific strengths instead of trying to build all military skills alone. In this context, Italy is quite a reliable and increasingly powerful NATO partner – only with a different regional setting other than the East flank countries.

Markus Becker

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Konrad Wolfenstein

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