Instalogistics as an innovation engine for the economy: LogiMat 2025 sets new standards

Published on: March 12, 2025 / Updated on: March 19, 2025 – Author: Konrad Wolfenstein

Worldwide economic situation 2025: Do we have a global economic crisis or economic flaut?

Globally, the current economic situation can be described more as a prolonged economic downturn than a profound crisis. However, there are significant regional differences, with Germany in particular struggling with structural problems, while other economies are showing better performance.

An overview of the global economic situation

The global economy is expected to grow at roughly the same rate in 2025 as in the previous year. Supporting this growth are likely to be continued solid performance in the US and above-average increases in many emerging markets. Growth in the Eurozone will remain weak overall. Further declines in growth rates are expected for China in 2025.

Current forecasts predict moderate global growth:

– The United Nations expects global growth to remain at 2.8 percent in 2025, which is below the pre-pandemic pace.
– The OECD has lowered its global growth forecast and now expects only 3.1 percent growth worldwide in 2025, 0.2 percentage points less than its December forecast.
– The Federation of German Industries (BDI) is somewhat more pessimistic and predicts that global economic growth will fall back to 2.7 percent in 2025.

These figures indicate a lull, but not a global crisis. Growth rates are positive, albeit below the long-term trend and expectations.

Regional differences in economic development

The significant regional differences in economic development are noteworthy:

1. USA: The American economy is expected to grow by about 2.4 percent in 2025, which represents relative strength compared to other industrialized countries.

2. China: Despite declining growth rates, China remains an important engine of the global economy, although the momentum is slowing compared to previous years.

3. Eurozone: Overall growth remains weak here, with significant differences between member states.

4. Germany: The German economy is experiencing a particularly pronounced slump. The Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK) forecasts growth of only 0.7 percent for Germany in 2025, while the ifo Institute is even more pessimistic with a forecast of just 0.2 percent.

Germany – crisis or prolonged slump?

The situation in Germany is particularly worrying. The German economy has been stagnating for several years, and this is likely to continue into 2025, albeit with slight improvements. A tentative recovery of the German economy is not expected until later in the year.

The German economy is struggling with several problems at once:

According to the ifo economic forecast, price-adjusted gross domestic product will stagnate this year and grow by only 0.9 percent in 2025. A slow recovery with 1.5 percent growth could begin only in 2026.

“The German economy will continue to be characterized by significant growth differences between individual large economies and between economic sectors,” Munich Re emphasizes in its outlook.

– Industry is particularly affected: “High energy and labor costs are squeezing its competitiveness. In addition, sectors such as the traditionally export-oriented automotive industry are increasingly losing out in a challenging international competition.”

While some economists speak of a "slump," others are already calling the situation a "crisis." Economist Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo Institute, offers a more nuanced view: "No, it's not an economic crisis," he says, because that term is only used when there is "a period of significantly negative development in gross domestic product." This is not currently the case in Germany; GDP is stagnating. "This is not a welcome development, but it is stagnation, not a crisis."

Global risk factors for economic development

The economic recovery is threatened by various factors that could trigger a worsening of the downturn or even a crisis:

1. Geopolitical uncertainties: The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and the unresolved conflict in the Middle East are cited as important geopolitical risk scenarios that could escalate further.

2. Trade policy tensions: The political decisions made in the US, especially regarding trade policy, are of particular importance. “Should the new US administration opt for significantly higher tariffs, global trade and growth will slow down – ultimately also in the US.”

3. Economic policy uncertainty: At the beginning of 2025, the economic situation continues to be characterized by “high levels of domestic and foreign policy uncertainty”.

Conclusion: A differentiated analysis is necessary

The question of whether we are in a global economic crisis or a recession cannot be answered in general terms. Globally, it is more accurately described as a recession with moderate growth of approximately 2.7 to 3.1 percent. However, the situation varies considerably from region to region

– The economic situation in the US is relatively robust.
– The Eurozone is struggling with weak growth.
– Germany is stuck in a particularly persistent stagnation, which some observers are already describing as a crisis.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres aptly summarizes the situation: “Countries cannot ignore these dangers. In our interconnected economy, shocks in one part of the world raise prices in another. Every country has a vested interest and must be part of the solution, building on the progress already made.”

The current economic situation requires a nuanced analysis and highlights the interconnectedness of the global economy. What appears as a lull in one part of the world can already be taking on crisis characteristics in other regions.