Growing tensions on NATO's eastern flank: After drone attack in Poland, now the Russian exercise Sapad 2025
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Published on: September 12, 2025 / Updated on: September 12, 2025 – Author: Konrad Wolfenstein
Growing tensions on NATO's eastern flank: After the drone attack in Poland, the Russian exercise Sapad 2025 is now underway – Image: Xpert.Digital
Red alert at the border: How Russia is testing the West with drones and maneuvers
Putin's dangerous game: Why the "Suwalki Gap" is now becoming NATO's Achilles heel
The security situation on NATO's eastern border has dramatically worsened after Russian drones were shot down by allies over NATO territory for the first time since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. The incident in Poland marks a turning point in Russia's hybrid warfare against the Western alliance and raises fundamental questions about the alliance's defense strategy.
Precedent in Polish airspace
On the night of September 10, 2025, at least 19 Russian Iranian-designed Shahed drones entered Polish airspace. The aircraft moved through the NATO member's territory for seven hours, with the locations of the downed drones stretching over several hundred kilometers. Polish fighter jets, with the support of NATO allies, shot down Russian drones over their own territory for the first time since the beginning of the war.
The distribution of drone debris demonstrates the extraordinary scale of the airspace violation. Remnants were found in the Lublin, Łódź, Świętokrzyskie, and Warmia-Masuria Voivodeships. A residential building in Wyryki-Wola near the Belarusian border was severely damaged by a drone; fortunately, no one was injured. Polish authorities discovered debris from a total of 16 unmanned aerial vehicles on their territory.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski described the incidents as an impossible coincidence, given the 19 airspace violations in seven hours. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the incident as a reckless and unprecedented violation of European territory. Poland subsequently activated Article 4 of the NATO Treaty and requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.
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Russia's Sapad 2025 military exercises
Just three days after the drone incidents, the strategic military exercise Sapad 2025 between Russia and Belarus began. The exercise, which will take place from September 12 to 16, 2025, will be held in close proximity to the NATO member states Poland and Lithuania, as well as Ukraine. According to the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr), approximately 13,000 soldiers are participating in the exercise in Belarus and another 30,000 on Russian territory.
The maneuver evokes particularly alarming memories of the previous exercise, Zapad 2021, which Russia used to deploy weapons and heavy equipment for its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The current exercise includes the first test of nuclear-capable Oreshnik medium-range missiles, as confirmed by Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin. The Oreshnik missiles can carry up to six warheads and have a range of several hundred kilometers.
Security experts interpret the timing of the maneuver, immediately following the drone incident, as a deliberate escalation. The Russian leadership is thus signaling its willingness to combine hybrid warfare with conventional military threats. Particularly worrying is the announcement that the exercise will also simulate the occupation of the so-called Suwalki Gap.
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The critical Suwalki gap
The Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania is considered the most strategically vulnerable point on NATO's eastern flank. The land corridor, only 65 kilometers wide, represents the only land connection between the Baltic states and the rest of NATO territory. Military experts warn that Russia could seal off this Achilles' heel of the alliance within 30 to 60 hours through coordinated attacks from Belarus and Kaliningrad.
A successful blockade of the Suwalki Gap would cut off the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania from their NATO allies, leaving them accessible only via the Baltic Sea and by air. Former British intelligence officer Philip Ingram describes the area as NATO's Achilles heel, which Putin could use as a strategic route for Russian troops.
The Baltic states have responded to the growing threat with comprehensive defense preparations. Lithuania has built more than 3,300 shelters for almost a third of its population since 2022. Together with Latvia and Estonia, the country is building a dense defense network of 600 bunkers along its border with Russia. Germany announced the permanent stationing of a brigade of up to 5,000 soldiers in Lithuania by 2027.
Hybrid warfare as the new normal
Russia's hybrid attacks against European states have reached a new dimension since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. While these tactics previously served as an alternative to overt military operations, since 2022 they have formed the backbone of a comprehensive strategy against Europe. The Russian military intelligence agency GRU coordinates the majority of these operations, while particularly sensitive attacks are authorized through the National Security Council.
Moscow relies on a decentralized recruitment model with so-called disposable agents, which reduces costs and makes traceability more difficult. In 2024 alone, more than two dozen suspected saboteurs were arrested in several European countries. The attacks are aimed at fueling social uncertainty, creating political instability, and undermining collective security mechanisms.
Russian drones over NATO countries are not a new phenomenon. In March 2022, a Soviet drone crashed in Croatia after flying over Romania and Hungary. In 2023 and 2024, Russian drones and aircraft were repeatedly recorded in the airspace of Latvia, Romania, and even Germany. However, the Polish incident represents a qualitative escalation, as it is the first time NATO fighter jets have actively destroyed Russian military equipment over Alliance territory.
NATO response and alliance solidarity
NATO responded promptly and decisively to the airspace violations. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte condemned Russia's reckless behavior and sent a clear message to Putin: End the war in Ukraine and stop violating Allied airspace. The North Atlantic Council reaffirmed its solidarity with Poland following Article 4 consultations.
Germany significantly increased its support for Polish air surveillance. The Bundeswehr doubled the number of Eurofighter fighter jets deployed from Rostock-Laage from two to four and extended the deployment, originally planned until the end of September, to December 31, 2025. France also provided three Rafale fighter jets to monitor NATO's eastern border.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the incidents as a serious threat to peace throughout Europe and spoke of a new quality in Russian attacks. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius described the events as a deliberate provocation against NATO as a whole and the European security order. The German government also announced the intensification of support for Ukraine and the acceleration of a 19th EU sanctions package against Russia.
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Maneuver collision: Quadriga, Iron Defender and Sapad increase the risk of escalation
Poland tightens security measures
Poland responded to the Russian provocation with drastic security measures. The government closed the entire border with Belarus and closed the airspace near the border for the duration of the Belarusian maneuvers. The Polish air traffic control authority established a restricted zone along the borders with Belarus and Ukraine until December. During the day, only manned aircraft with a flight plan and radio contact with the authorities are permitted; at night, a complete flight ban applies, with the exception of military flights.
Latvia also closed its airspace on its eastern border with Belarus and Russia for a week, with an option to extend it. These coordinated measures demonstrate the seriousness of the threat situation on NATO's eastern flank. Prime Minister Donald Tusk also announced a comprehensive modernization program for the Polish military.
The Russian Foreign Ministry criticized Poland's border closure as confrontational steps intended to justify further escalation. This reaction underscores Moscow's strategy of shifting responsibility for tensions onto NATO countries, even though Russia itself is escalating the situation through airspace violations and maneuvers.
International diplomatic efforts
Poland successfully mobilized the international community to condemn the Russian aggression. At Poland's request, the UN Security Council convened an emergency meeting for September 12. Several Security Council members supported the request, including the veto powers Great Britain and France, as well as NATO member Slovenia.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas described the events as a game-changer that required strong and decisive responses. She considered convening European defense and foreign ministers to discuss options for action. Sweden summoned the Russian ambassador and declared the Russian violations unacceptable.
However, due to its veto power in the UN Security Council, Russia can block any decisions that are detrimental to it. This underscores the limitations of international legal mechanisms in the face of a persistently aggressive member with a veto power and the need for alternative forms of response.
NATO's major exercise Quadriga 2025 as a counterweight to the Sapad exercise
NATO responded with the ongoing multinational exercise series Quadriga 2025. Around 8,000 German soldiers from all branches of the armed forces are practicing the protection of the Baltic Sea region together with armed forces from 13 other nations.
The Northern Coasts core exercise
Under German leadership, approximately 40 ships and 30 aircraft are training for the safe deployment of troops to Lithuania and the protection of strategic sea routes. On September 10, all Bundeswehr forces, including over 1,000 vehicles, successfully arrived in Lithuania.
Temporal overlap increases tensions
General Breuer confirmed the deliberate overlap between the two exercises. While Quadriga 2025 runs until today, September 12, Sapad 2025 begins today—a timing that increases the risk of unintended incidents.
Poland is also conducting its largest military exercise of the year: Iron Defender 25, with over 30,000 troops. These coordinated NATO responses send a clear signal of deterrence to Russia while simultaneously demonstrating the defensive capabilities of its eastern flank.
The parallel large-scale exercises mark a new peak in military tensions in Europe since the beginning of the Ukraine war. The coincidence of the exercises on both sides increased the risk of unintended incidents, as both sides were operating with live ammunition just a few kilometers apart. However, NATO demonstrated the effectiveness of its command and control structures through its coordinated responses.
Iron Defender 25: Poland's response to Russian-Belarusian military exercise
The Polish exercise Iron Defender 25 began on September 1, 2025. The exercise was deliberately scheduled for September 1—the anniversary of the German invasion of Poland in 1939. Approximately 30,000 Polish soldiers, along with troops from other NATO countries, are participating in the exercise.
The timing is strategic: Iron Defender 25 runs parallel to the Russian-Belarusian Zapad 2025 exercises, which begin today (September 12). Poland is conducting this exercise explicitly as a "proportionate response" to Zapad 2025.
The exercise spans various locations (Orzysz, Ustka, Nowa Dęba, and the Baltic Sea) and tests new weapons systems such as Abrams tanks, K9 howitzers, and Chunmoo rocket launchers. A central focus is on the JAGIC (Combined Divisional Fire Control System).
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Maneuver addendum
Iron Defender 25 (Poland)
- Start: September 1, 2025
- Participants: 30,000 Polish and NATO soldiers
- Polish national maneuver in response to Sapad 2025
Tarassis 25 (Joint Expeditionary Force)
- Period: Parallel to Sapad 2025 (12-16 September 2025)
- Participants: 10 Northern European NATO countries under British leadership
- Multinational Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) exercise
The confusion arises from
- Iron Defender 25 is Poland's largest national military exercise of the year, which began on September 1.
- Tarassis 25 is a separate multinational exercise of the Joint Expeditionary Force that runs concurrently with Sapad 2025.
- In addition, Lithuania is conducting the exercise “Thunder Strike”.
Poland is therefore conducting both Iron Defender 25 (already underway since September 1) and Tarassis 25 (parallel to Sapad 2025). Different sources mention different maneuvers, which is why the confusion has arisen.
Technical challenges of drone defense
The drone incidents revealed significant deficiencies in European air defense. Of the 19 Russian drones that intruded on Polish territory, only three were successfully intercepted. This rate of less than 16 percent raises questions about the effectiveness of current defense systems. Chancellor Merz admitted that NATO's air defenses had not functioned as well as they should have.
The Russian-made Gerbera drones used have a range of several hundred kilometers and can be equipped with various explosives or electronic warfare. CDU foreign policy expert Norbert Röttgen warned that Germany is not yet sufficiently capable of defending itself in drone warfare, and these deficiencies must be addressed.
Theoretically, Russian drones could also reach German cities from Belarus or the Russian mainland. The straight-line distance between Bryansk and Berlin is approximately 1,500 kilometers, which would correspond to an eight-hour drone flight. However, such drones would have to cross Polish airspace, where Polish air defenses would be activated.
Geopolitical implications
The events mark a turning point in the European security architecture. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, NATO forces shot down Russian military equipment over their own territory. This sets a precedent that blurs the line between hybrid and conventional warfare.
Russia's strategy is aimed at testing NATO solidarity and creating rifts within the alliance. CDU politician Norbert Röttgen interpreted the incidents as a test of NATO cohesion and an attempt at intimidation, sending a message to stay out of the Ukraine war. At the same time, Moscow is demonstrating its capacity for escalation and signaling its willingness to further overstep its bounds.
However, the coordinated European response also demonstrates the resilience of the Western alliance. The rapid activation of Article 4, the strengthening of air surveillance, and the diplomatic mobilization of the international community demonstrate the ability of NATO structures to function under stress. EU Commission President von der Leyen reaffirmed full European solidarity with Poland.
Further developments?
Tensions on NATO's eastern flank are unlikely to ease any time soon. Russia announced that it will deploy Oreshnik missiles in Belarus by the end of the year. These nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles are to go into series production, as President Putin announced. The ongoing militarization of Belarus as a staging area against NATO territory poses a strategic challenge to alliance defense.
NATO must adapt its defense concepts to the new reality of hybrid threats. This includes not only improving air defense and drone defense, but also developing appropriate response mechanisms for gray-zone tactics below the threshold of conventional warfare. German security services are already warning of a systematic intensification of Russian acts of sabotage in Europe.
At the same time, NATO is continuously strengthening its presence on its eastern flank. The planned permanent German brigade in Lithuania, the increased air patrols over Poland, and the regular large-scale exercises signal its commitment to Alliance defense. The challenge is to ensure deterrence without contributing to escalation.
Recent events demonstrate that the post-Cold War era is finally over. Europe must prepare for an era of sustained confrontation with Russia and align its defense structures accordingly. The peace dividend has been exhausted, and societies must mentally adapt to the new security realities. Only through a united front and adequate defense capabilities can the Western alliance deter Russian aggression and secure long-term peace in Europe.
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