Hormus street as a global logistical needle: a blockade would stop 20% of the world oil - there is a risk of escalation?

Published on: June 30, 2025 / update from: June 30, 2025 - Author: Konrad Wolfenstein

 

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Hormus's street: a strategic needle of the global economy

The Hormus street is much more than just a geographical match between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman - it is considered the most important maritime needle of the global economy. This narrow waterway, which is only about 33 to 38 kilometers wide at its closest point, plays a central role in global energy supply and international trade. The strategic importance of this meter is reinforced by its position between Iran in the north and the United Arab Emirates and the Oman in the south.

The critical meaning for global energy supply

A fifth of the oil traded worldwide flows through the street of Hormus - this corresponds to about 20 to 21 million barrels a day. This amount is about 20 percent of global consumption of liquid oil products. In addition to crude oil, a significant proportion of the global liquid gas (LNG) also passes this strategic route, whereby Qatar, as the largest LNG exporter in the region, ships almost all of its liquefied natural gas over this match.

The dependence of the golf states on this passage is almost complete. Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain and Qatar-all important oil producers and Opec members-are dependent on this only sea route to bring their energy resources to the world markets. There are only two three kilometers of bicycles available for international shipping, which extend over a length of around 35 kilometers.

Global economic effects of a possible blockade

A blockade of the Hormus street would have devastating consequences for the global economy. Even the mere threat of a blocking regularly leads to turbulence on the raw material markets and increases the oil prices. The international energy agency urgently warns: the sheer amount of oil that is exported across the street of Hormus and the limited ways to avoid it means that every interruption of the oil flows has massive effects on global oil markets.

The economic consequences of a blockade would not be evenly distributed. Continental Europe and China in particular would be among the greatest losers, since both are heavily dependent on energy imports and do not have domestic buffer capacities. About 84 percent of the oil and 83 percent of the natural gas that are transported by the meters are intended for the Asian markets, whereby China, India, Japan and South Korea make up 69 percent of all crude oil and condensation transports.

The effects would quickly manifest themselves in increasing energy prices, increased inflation and contaminated supply chains. Transport costs would explode, which would affect all branches of industry - from automotive production to the production of consumer goods. Even Bavaria, which is hardly directly dependent on oil or gas imports from the golf region, would be affected by increasing world market prices.

Alternative routes and their limits

The alternatives to the street of Hormus are limited and far from sufficient to cope with the enormous transport volume. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have operational pipelines that can bypass the sea. Saudi Arabia runs the east-west pipeline with a capacity of five million barrels per day, which can be temporarily expanded to seven million barrels. The VAE have a similar pipeline from their onshore oil fields to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

Overall, according to the international energy agency, pipelines could transport about a quarter of the amount of oil, which usually leaves the Golf in tankers. However, this would not be sufficient to compensate for a complete blockade. Iran itself has no such an alternative and would be robbed when it is blocked of its own exports.

The geopolitical dimension and historical threats

Iran has repeatedly threatened with the blockade of the Hormus street, especially in response to international sanctions or military tensions. These threats are not new - as early as 2006/2007, 2011 and several times in recent years, Tehran has threatened to block without ever implementing them.

The recent tensions after the attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities have updated these threats. The Iranian parliament has already approved a possible blockade, with the final decision lying on the highest national security council, which is under the control of the top leader Ali Khamenei.

Militarily, a blockade for Iran would be feasible. The country could go to the mallets, destroy conveyor systems and pipelines or shoot tankers with drones and rockets. However, such an action would also damage Iran significantly, since it exports around 1.5 million barrels of oil through the street every day and rely on these income.

Modern challenges: navigation disorders and insurance risks

In addition to the direct threat of a physical blockade, ships in the region are increasingly faced with electronic disorders. GPS jamming and spoofing attacks regularly affect the navigation systems, whereby the automatic identification system (AIS) is particularly affected. These disorders temporarily make ships disappear from the radar and lead to inaccurate position determination, which carries considerable risks in the busy waters.

The insurance costs for passages through the Hormus street have risen drastically due to the increased risks. During the high -voltage times, the insurance premiums rose to more than $ 500,000 for a single passage. After the latest attacks, the insurance premiums for ships have quintupled with Israeli target ports - from 0.2 percent to one percent of the ship's value.

The comparison to the Ever Given crisis in the Suez Canal

The importance of strategic shipping routes for the global economy was dramatically illustrated by the blockade of the Suez Canal by the container ship Ever Given. The 400 -meter -long and 60 -meter -wide ship with a capacity of over 20,000 standard containers (TEU) blocked one of the most important trade routes between Europe and Asia from March 23 to 29, 2021.

The six -day blockade led to a massive traffic jam of up to 369 ships and caused an estimated cost of $ 400 million per hour. The daily value of goods, which was stopped by the blockade, was about $ 9.6 billion - divided into $ 5.1 billion for the western and $ 4.5 billion for eastern traffic.

The Suez Canal is responsible for around 12 percent of the total world trade and does around 30 percent of the global container polumen annually. The blockade illustrated the vulnerability of the global supply chains, which are designed for just-in-time deliveries. Many companies were unable to maintain their production, as goods required on the Ever Given themselves or on other stranded ships were stuck.

Effects on modern supply chains

The modern global economy is based on highly complex, globally branched supply chains, which are made possible by maritime connections. More than 80 percent of international trade are handled by the sea route. This dependency makes the global economy particularly susceptible to disorders in strategic nodes such as the street of Hormus or the Suez Canal.

Container shipping has revolutionized international trade since the 1960s and accelerated exponentially. Modern container ships can transport up to 24,000 TEU and have thus become floating cities that form the backbone of globalization. The standardization of the containers enables a seamless transition between different means of transport - from ships to trains and trucks.

Insurance and security aspects

The maritime security in strategic waters such as the street of Hormus requires considerable international efforts. The European Union has reinforced its coordinated maritime presence (coordinated maritime presence) in the northwestern Indian ocean, which comprises the sea area from the street from Hormus to southern Wendekreis.

War risks are excluded in normal ship insurance and require special war insurance. For high -risk areas such as the street of Hormus, shipowners have to inform their insurers before passing through and receive additional insurance cover for a surcharge. The Joint War Committee in London regularly checks the classification of danger areas and adapts the risk premiums accordingly.

Economic interdependence and strategic considerations

Hormus's street illustrates the complex interdependence of modern global economy. A blockade would not only hit the Golf's oil exporters, but would have global effects on energy prices, inflation and economic growth. Even Iran, which is repeatedly threatened with a blocking, would be affected by the consequences, since it is also dependent on the sea for his exports.

The strategic importance of the ocean goes beyond pure energy transport. It is a symbol of the vulnerability of the globalized economy and the power that individual actors can exercise on critical infrastructures. The international community is therefore forced to use both diplomatic and military resources in order to ensure that this vital trade route is openly preserved.

The experiences with the Ever Given in the Suez Canal and the ongoing tensions around the Hormus street clearly show that modern global economy has to develop new strategies for risk minimization. This could include a diversification of the transport routes, the establishment of strategic reserves and strengthening regional supply chains in order to reduce the dependency on individual critical passages.