If even McKinsey is not spared, the entire consulting industry is at a crossroads.
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Published on: November 23, 2025 / Updated on: November 23, 2025 – Author: Konrad Wolfenstein
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David versus Goliath: Why specialized boutiques (like Xpert.Digital) are stealing customers from the big consulting firms
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For a long time, McKinsey was synonymous with strategic infallibility and economic dominance—a rock in the storm of the global economy. But when even the undisputed market leader is forced to drastically reduce its workforce and accept growth rates far behind those of its competitors, it's more than just a poor quarterly report. It's the unmistakable signal of a paradigm shift. The consulting industry, which for decades preached to other companies about how to transform themselves, now finds itself at the center of a perfect storm that is shaking its traditional business model to its very foundations.
What we are currently witnessing is the gradual demise of the tried-and-tested "pyramid model." The system, lucrative for decades, in which legions of junior consultants billed exorbitant hours, is being rendered obsolete by the rapid rise of artificial intelligence. When AI tools like McKinsey's "Lilli" or BCG's "Deckster" complete days' work in minutes, the economic logic of billing by the hour collapses. At the same time, the balance of power is shifting: While agile boutique consultancies with specialized knowledge and lean structures are wresting market share from large corporations, the established firms are grappling not only with technological disruptions but also with a profound crisis of confidence.
This article examines the anatomy of an industry at a crossroads. It analyzes why BCG threatens to dethrone McKinsey, how the rise of specialized niche providers is putting pressure on the "big players," and why the consultant's role will bear little resemblance to its current one in five years. It is a stark assessment of an industry that must reinvent itself to avoid becoming a case for restructuring.
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The End of the Pyramid: How AI is pulverizing the business model of the consulting industry
From pyramid to network: The new structure of consulting
The consulting industry is currently undergoing one of the most profound transformations in its history. What superficially appears to be just another technological shift, upon closer inspection reveals itself to be a fundamental restructuring of the entire business model that has shaped the industry for decades. The signs of this disruption are no longer merely theoretical scenarios in strategy papers, but are manifesting themselves in hard numbers and drastic restructuring at the world's most prestigious firms.
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The decline of the pyramid model
The traditional consulting business has always been based on a pyramid-shaped personnel model, characterized by a broad base of junior consultants, a middle layer of managers, and a narrow top tier of partners. For decades, this model generated considerable margins by selling the labor of junior staff at high hourly rates while they simultaneously received significantly lower salaries. The mathematics was strikingly simple: the broader the base, the higher the profitability. A partner could oversee a team of ten to fifteen consultants, whose billable hours constituted the actual business.
But this pyramid is beginning to crumble. McKinsey, long the undisputed leader in strategic management consulting, has reduced its global workforce from approximately 45,000 employees at the end of 2023 to around 40,000. This represents a decline of over ten percent in just eighteen months. What is remarkable is not only the scale of the reduction, but also the manner in which it was implemented. Unlike traditional mass layoffs, McKinsey primarily used its performance review system to systematically force employees out of the company. In February 2024, approximately 3,000 employees received negative performance reviews, which are generally considered a precursor to dismissal.
The economic indicators paint an even more dramatic picture. While McKinsey recorded revenue growth of only two percent in 2024, its main competitor, Boston Consulting Group (BCG), expanded by ten percent—five times faster. At this growth rate, it is predicted that BCG could overtake McKinsey as the highest-grossing strategy consultancy by 2027. This would represent a historic break with a hierarchy that had been considered established for generations.
The figures demonstrate the structural nature of the crisis. The German consulting market, traditionally considered particularly robust, exceeded the €50 billion mark in total revenue for the first time in 2024, with growth of approximately six percent compared to the previous year. However, these positive aggregate figures mask a dangerous slowdown. In 2022, growth was still at 16 percent, and the following year at over seven percent. The momentum is weakening rapidly, while at the same time disruptive technologies are fundamentally challenging the cost structures of established providers.
The global consulting market is estimated to be worth approximately 263 billion US dollars in 2024, with a projection of 421 billion US dollars by 2033, representing an average annual growth rate of about five percent. This initially appears solid, but the distribution of this growth is shifting dramatically. Traditional strategy consulting, long the crown jewel of the industry, is losing ground to technology and implementation consulting.
Artificial intelligence as a catalyst for change
The transformative power of artificial intelligence on the consulting industry can no longer be dismissed as a vision of the future. It is already operational reality. Generative AI models can complete tasks in minutes that used to take junior consultants days or weeks. Analyzing market data, creating competitive analyses, summarizing extensive documents, modeling financial scenarios – all these activities, which traditionally represented the entry point into a consulting career, are increasingly being automated.
McKinsey itself has developed Lilli, a proprietary AI system that supports consultants in research and data analysis. Boston Consulting Group relies on Deckster, a tool for the automated creation of presentation slides. Deloitte and PwC are investing heavily in agent-based platforms that orchestrate complex workflows. The irony is obvious: The consulting firms that preached digital transformation to their clients for decades are now experiencing firsthand what it means when technology renders their own business model obsolete.
The productivity gains are substantial. Studies show that companies deploying AI across various functional areas achieve productivity increases of fifteen to thirty percent. In the consulting industry, this means that a single AI-powered consultant can perform the work of three to four traditional junior analysts. The mathematical implications for the pyramid model are devastating. If the base of the pyramid can shrink by seventy to eighty percent without a decrease in performance, the entire economics of the traditional model collapses.
But technological change goes beyond mere efficiency gains. It fundamentally alters what clients expect from consultants. In a world where companies are increasingly building their own AI capabilities, external consultants are losing their traditional information advantage. The value is shifting from analysis to synthesis, from data acquisition to interpretation, from presentation creation to strategic facilitation. This shift favors small, highly specialized teams over large, hierarchical structures.
The European market for AI consulting services is estimated at around €8.2 billion for the year 2024, with forecasts reaching nearly €41 billion by 2033. This corresponds to an average annual growth rate of almost 20 percent. These figures illustrate that consulting itself is not disappearing, but rather that its nature is undergoing a fundamental transformation. AI is not simply being integrated as an additional tool into existing workflows, but is forcing a complete reconceptualization of value creation.
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The rise of boutique consultancies
While the major firms struggle with overcapacity and shrinking margins, another segment of the industry is experiencing a remarkable boom: specialized boutique consultancies. These smaller firms, often comprising only ten to fifty people, are increasingly winning mandates that would previously have automatically gone to McKinsey, BCG, or Bain. While the initial claim that McKinsey lost three major clients to small, twelve-person firms cannot be verified through specific individual cases, the underlying pattern is real and measurable.
Paradoxically, the success factors of boutique consultancies lie precisely in those areas that artificial intelligence cannot replicate. They score points with personalized attention, a deep understanding of specific industry contexts, direct access to experienced partners, and the ability to navigate the human dimensions of change processes. While large consultancies apply standardized frameworks that have been optimized over thousands of projects, boutique firms offer tailor-made solutions closely aligned with the specific needs of individual clients.
A survey of German consulting firms shows that boutique firms achieve a project success rate of 85 percent, surpassing the performance of larger companies. This is partly due to their significantly more selective approach to accepting projects and their focus on areas where they possess demonstrable expertise. While a large consulting firm may feel pressured to accept every project offered to ensure its large staff remains fully utilized, smaller firms can concentrate on lucrative niche markets.
The cost aspect also speaks in favor of the boutique model. Without the overhead costs of global office networks, extensive administrative structures, and expensive marketing campaigns, specialized firms can often offer their services 20 to 30 percent cheaper than their large competitors, without compromising on quality. The lean structure makes it possible to deploy experienced consultants directly at the client's site, instead of wasting expensive partner hours on acquisition and coordination tasks.
Another crucial advantage lies in the use of technology. Small firms are often more agile in adopting new tools. A team of twelve can fully transition to new AI-powered ways of working within weeks, while a company with tens of thousands of employees needs years for a comparable transformation. This agility allows boutique consultancies to fully leverage the productivity gains of AI while preserving human strengths – strategic thinking, relationship building, and change management.
These firms specialize in a wide range of areas, from price optimization for software companies and supply chain transformation in the retail sector to sustainability strategies for energy corporations. This focus allows them to build expertise that even the broadly based research departments of large firms cannot develop to a comparable depth. Clients increasingly value this specific expertise over more generalist approaches.
Specialized boutique consultancies are small, independent consulting firms that focus on a specific industry sector or function, offering particularly in-depth, tailored services. Their key difference from large consulting firms lies in their specialization: they concentrate on a few related topics, bringing significantly higher levels of expertise and a more personal, individualized approach. Close client relationships and working with an experienced team geared towards the specific challenges of individual market niches or functional areas are typical. Boutique consultancies are therefore flexible, client-oriented, and particularly effective when dealing with complex, specialized issues.
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The crisis of credibility
In addition to structural and technological challenges, the consulting industry, particularly the large, established firms, is grappling with a crisis of confidence. McKinsey's involvement in the opioid crisis in the United States is only the most prominent of several controversies. The company paid 650 million US dollars to settle criminal investigations by the Department of Justice. The allegations were that McKinsey had helped Purdue Pharma, the maker of OxyContin, boost sales of the highly addictive painkiller at a time when the dangers of opioid addiction were already evident.
The details are disturbing. Consultants recommended discounts to distributors for every overdose, developed strategies for targeting prescribing physicians, and helped circumvent regulatory controls. One former senior partner even admitted to obstructing justice by deleting documents related to his work for Purdue. These incidents raise fundamental questions about the ethical foundations of the consulting business.
But McKinsey is not alone. The industry as a whole has come under fire for its role in promoting short-term profit maximization at the expense of long-term stability, supporting dubious privatization projects, and working for authoritarian regimes. In Australia, McKinsey was criticized for its advice on climate strategy, which was clearly aimed at protecting the fossil fuel industry. In South Africa, the firm was embroiled in bribery scandals.
These scandals have real business consequences. Companies and governments are far more critical of whom they work with. The public perception of the consulting industry has suffered. Studies show that almost 80 percent of consulting firms describe their brand awareness among potential new clients as moderate, low, or practically non-existent. Credibility, once a core asset, must be actively rebuilt.
For large firms, the sheer size and global presence further complicate matters, making them more vulnerable to reputational damage. A single problematic project in one country can make headlines worldwide and negatively impact the entire company. Boutique consultancies with a regional or thematic focus are less exposed to such systemic reputational risks.
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The end of the hourly billing model
Traditional billing based on hours worked is under increasing pressure. This model made sense when time invested was a reliable indicator of value created. But artificial intelligence is breaking this correlation. If an analysis that used to take a week can now be completed in an hour, strictly applying the hourly model would mean that revenue would have to fall by eighty to ninety percent, even though the value to the customer remains the same or even increases.
McKinsey is responding to this trend by increasingly relying on results-based pricing models. Approximately a quarter of the firm's global fees are now generated through agreements where compensation is primarily tied to measurable results. This represents a fundamental departure from the traditional model. Instead of asking how many hours a project requires, the question is now: What value do we create for the client, and how can we participate in that value?
This shift is not without risks. Outcome-based models require that success criteria be precisely defined and measurable. They presuppose that both sides – consultant and client – have a shared understanding of what constitutes success. Furthermore, they shift some of the business risk from the client to the consultant. If the desired results are not achieved, whether due to external factors or implementation problems on the client's side, the consultant may receive no payment despite having delivered high-quality work.
Nevertheless, the trend seems irreversible. Customers are increasingly demanding transparency about what they are paying for and the added value they are receiving. In a world where they see AI capable of handling many analytical tasks, they are less willing to pay high hourly rates for standardized work. The value is shifting towards tailored insights, strategic leadership, and the ability to successfully navigate complex change processes.
Hybrid models are gaining in importance. A reduced base rate combined with performance-based bonuses, tiered pricing that automatically adjusts based on achieved milestones, or refunds if predefined targets are not met are variants that are increasingly being discussed and implemented. These models attempt to reconcile the interests of both sides while simultaneously distributing uncertainties.
In parallel, some consultancies are experimenting with subscription-based models, where clients pay for continuous access to expertise rather than for individual projects. This is similar to the Software-as-a-Service model and could become increasingly important for certain types of consulting services, particularly in the technology and implementation sectors.
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German consulting strengths in the age of digital transformation: A threat to traditional consulting firms
The transformation of competency profiles
The demands placed on consultants are changing fundamentally. The classic profile – an excellent university degree from a top university, strong analytical skills, and presentation skills – is no longer sufficient. Technical skills in handling data and AI systems, in-depth industry expertise, change management skills, and the ability to moderate complex stakeholder processes, as well as pronounced emotional intelligence, are increasingly in demand.
The consulting industry is moving away from hiring generalists who spend several years working across various industries and functions, and towards recruiting specialists with established expertise in specific domains. The traditional career path – two years as an analyst, two years as an associate, three years as a manager, then promotion to principal and finally partner – is being disrupted. Instead, increasingly experienced professionals from industry are joining laterally, bringing deep domain knowledge and skipping several hierarchical levels.
Investment in continuing education is increasing, but with a shift in focus. While training previously concentrated primarily on methodological skills and frameworks, it now focuses on the effective use of AI tools, prompt engineering for generative models, the interpretation of machine learning outputs, and the critical evaluation of algorithmic recommendations. At the same time, the importance of non-automatable soft skills is growing: the ability to conduct difficult conversations, build trust, lead teams through uncertainty, and navigate complex political dynamics within organizations.
The demographic composition of the workforce is shifting. The proportion of recent university graduates in entry-level positions is decreasing, while the proportion of experienced professionals is increasing. This has an impact on corporate culture. The traditional model of a young, high-energy workforce with intensive on-the-job learning is being replaced by a more mature, experienced structure in which knowledge transfer is less hierarchical.
At the same time, competition for talent is intensifying. The consulting industry is no longer just competing with other consulting firms, but also with technology companies, startups, venture capital firms, and the corporate strategy departments of large corporations. Many young university graduates, who previously would have automatically pursued a consulting career, are turning to more attractive alternatives. The number of consultants leaving the industry has increased by seven percent in recent years, with the average length of service of those departing having also risen. This suggests that even experienced professionals are increasingly seeing better options outside of consulting.
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The geographical dimension of the transformation
The transformation of the consulting industry is not uniform across regions. North America, particularly the United States, remains the dominant region, accounting for approximately 38 percent of the global market. The US management consulting market was valued at roughly 374 billion US dollars in 2023. However, this is also the market with the most intense competition and the most aggressive restructuring.
Europe accounts for approximately 27 percent of the global market. The German market, as the largest in Europe, exhibits interesting characteristics. The focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the German economy creates different demand patterns than the Anglo-Saxon markets dominated by large corporations. At the same time, the energy transition and the focus on sustainability issues lead to specific consulting needs that are strongly driven by regulations. The German market for strategy consulting is estimated at approximately 3.5 to 4 billion euros for the year 2025, with a projected annual growth rate of just under 6 percent.
Asian markets, especially China and India, are growing disproportionately, albeit from lower starting points. These markets are less dominated by traditional Western consulting models and more open to alternative approaches. Local consulting firms are gaining importance, often with a stronger integration of technology and implementation than their Western counterparts.
The geographical distribution of the major consulting firms themselves is up for debate. While they traditionally maintained large offices in expensive metropolitan areas like New York, London, or Munich, the increasing digitalization of work allows for decentralization. Talent can be deployed from more cost-effective locations, which improves the cost structure but also impacts traditional office culture and personal networking.
Industry-specific trends also show considerable variation. The financial sector, formerly a major client for consulting services, is increasingly building its own internal capacities, particularly in data analytics and digital transformation. The manufacturing industry, especially in Germany, is increasingly demanding consulting services related to Industry 4.0, artificial intelligence in production, and supply chain transformation. The public sector, long considered less lucrative, is gaining importance as governments make massive investments in infrastructure, the energy transition, and digitalization.
The role of the technology giants
A previously overlooked development is the increasing penetration of technology companies into the consulting market. Companies like Palantir and OpenAI are increasingly offering services that were traditionally considered part of the consulting business. However, their approach differs fundamentally. Instead of selling advice, they implement technology solutions and integrate them directly into their clients' business processes.
Palantir, for example, stations engineers at client sites who don't work on time-limited projects, but rather continuously optimize and expand the implemented systems. This creates a significantly closer and longer-term relationship than traditional consulting engagements. OpenAI offers enterprise services that support companies in building their own AI capabilities, which could reduce the need for external consulting for certain tasks.
The major cloud providers – Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud – are continuously expanding their consulting divisions. They can offer technology and consulting from a single source, which is attractive to customers because it reduces interface problems. Furthermore, they possess deep technical expertise and access to the latest technologies, including proprietary AI models.
This competition is particularly dangerous for traditional consulting firms because it encroaches on their most lucrative area – digitalization and technology consulting. While McKinsey, BCG, and others try to strengthen their technology capabilities through acquisitions and new hires, the tech companies have an inherent advantage due to their control over the underlying platforms and infrastructures.
Some argue that this development will lead to a fragmentation of the consulting industry. Technology-driven implementation work will migrate to tech companies and systems integrators, while strategic, people-centric consulting will remain with established firms and specialized boutiques. This would mean that traditional consultancies would have to significantly streamline their business models and focus on high-margin, consulting-intensive work, while simultaneously losing revenue and economies of scale.
Perspectives and scenarios for the future
The consulting industry is at a crossroads, and several possible future scenarios are emerging. The first scenario could be described as evolution. In this case, established firms successfully adapt their business models. They systematically reduce their workforce, invest heavily in technology, develop new pricing models, and focus on high-quality consulting services that cannot be automated. McKinsey, BCG, and Bain remain the dominant players, albeit with altered structures and priorities.
The second scenario is fragmentation. Large, integrated consulting firms are continuously losing market share to specialized boutiques on the one hand and technology companies on the other. The market is splitting into several segments: high-priced strategic consulting for complex, human-centered issues; specialized niche consulting with deep industry knowledge; technology-driven implementation by tech companies and systems integrators; and democratized self-service tools for standardized analyses. The brands of the traditional Big Three are losing their luster.
A third scenario would be disruption. Entirely new business models emerge that fundamentally challenge the traditional consulting business. Platform-based approaches connect clients directly with independent experts, AI-powered consulting systems offer high-quality analyses at fractional cost, and companies expand their internal strategy capabilities to such an extent that they only need external consulting in exceptional cases. Traditional consulting firms shrink dramatically or disappear altogether.
The most likely development is a combination of all three scenarios, with the weighting varying depending on the region, industry, and specific consulting segment. The large firms will not disappear, but they will have to become smaller, more technology-driven, and more focused. Boutique consultancies will flourish in certain niches. Technology companies will take on an increasing share of implementation work.
Critical success factors for established firms include the ability to radically transform themselves, investments in proprietary technology and data assets, the development of differentiation beyond size and reputation, the building of genuine industry expertise rather than generalist skills, and the restoration of trust through transparent and ethical practices. Firms that master this transformation have a good chance of surviving and prospering. Those that cling to traditional models will become increasingly marginalized.
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Implications for the economy as a whole
The transformation of the consulting industry has far-reaching implications beyond the industry itself. Firstly, it influences how strategic decisions are made within companies. As external consultants play a less significant role, internal strategy departments gain in importance. This could lead to more internally rooted and long-term oriented strategies, less influenced by external trends and frameworks.
Secondly, this change has implications for career paths and talent development. For decades, consulting has been a key talent developer for the economy as a whole. Many leaders in industry, government, and the nonprofit sector began their careers in consulting. If this springboard loses its significance or undergoes fundamental changes, it could influence how future generations of leaders are shaped.
Third, the spread of best practices could slow down. Consulting firms have traditionally played a key role in transferring successful practices from one company or industry to another. If these intermediaries are weakened, knowledge transfer could stall unless new mechanisms emerge.
Fourth, this development raises questions about the democratization of expertise. If AI tools make high-quality analyses and recommendations available at low cost, smaller companies, startups, and organizations in developing countries could gain access to skills that were previously unavailable to them. This could shift economic dynamics and create new competitive landscapes.
Fifth, there is a risk of quality erosion. Traditional consulting firms, despite all the valid criticisms, have developed quality standards, methods, and ethical guidelines over decades. If these institutions are weakened and replaced by fragmented, less regulated alternatives, standards could decline. This is a real risk, especially in the context of AI-supported consulting, where transparency and traceability of recommendations are critical.
The German perspective on global disruption
This global transformation has specific implications for the German economy and the German consulting market. Germany's Mittelstand, the backbone of the economy, has traditionally been less reliant on consulting services than large Anglo-Saxon corporations. Many medium-sized companies rely on internal expertise and long-term relationships with a select few consultants. This structure could prove advantageous, as it is already geared towards specialization and long-term partnerships – precisely the model that is gaining importance in the new consulting landscape.
German consulting firms like Roland Berger or Simon-Kucher, which rely heavily on industry specialization and technical expertise, could benefit from these shifts. Their traditional focus on engineering-driven industries, operational excellence, and measurable results aligns well with the new demands. At the same time, the relative weakness of German companies in digital technologies presents a challenge.
The German labor market, with its strong employee rights and preference for long-term employment, makes the radical workforce adjustments undertaken by American companies more difficult. This could, on the one hand, slow down the transformation, but on the other hand, it could also have a stabilizing effect and prevent abrupt disruptions. The strong emphasis on education and training in the German system could be helpful in managing the shift in skills.
The energy transition and the transformation of industry towards sustainable production methods create specific consulting needs, where German companies could have an advantage due to their proximity to these topics. Areas such as the hydrogen economy, the circular economy, sustainable supply chains, and industrial decarbonization require deep technical and regulatory expertise that cannot be easily automated.
At the same time, the German consulting landscape must be careful not to fall behind in technological developments. The dominance of American technology companies in artificial intelligence and cloud computing could lead to American models and providers dominating the consulting business as well. Strengthening European and German capabilities in these areas would be strategically important.
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More humanity through technology: The future of consulting services
The consulting industry is not undergoing a gradual adjustment, but a fundamental transformation of its business model, its structures, and its role in the economic ecosystem. The assertion that even McKinsey is not immune should not be interpreted as gloating, but rather as an indicator of the depth and breadth of this change. When the world's most prestigious and influential consulting firm is forced to fundamentally rethink its business model, it affects the entire industry.
The key question for all stakeholders is: What value do consultants create in a world where artificial intelligence can take over many analytical tasks and where clients are increasingly developing their own capabilities? The answer likely lies in those areas that require genuinely human skills: complex judgment under uncertainty, navigating political and social dynamics in organizations, building trust and consensus, creative problem-solving for novel challenges, and ethical reflection on goals and means.
Consulting won't disappear, but it will look different. Smaller teams, greater specialization, closer client relationships, new pricing models, and a fundamental integration of technology into work processes will define the new normal. The pyramid that structured the industry for decades is no longer viable. It will be replaced by a flatter, more network-like structure in which human expertise and artificial intelligence are closely intertwined.
For aspiring consultants, this means that traditional entry paths are changing. The classic analyst job, which involved years of learning the basics of Excel and PowerPoint, is becoming less common. Instead, specialized skills and proficiency in using AI tools are required from the outset. For established consultants, it demands a willingness to learn continuously and the ability to constantly reinvent themselves.
New opportunities are opening up for companies seeking consulting services. They have more options than ever before, ranging from large, integrated providers to specialized boutiques and technology platforms. At the same time, the demands on their own judgment in selecting and managing external partners are increasing. They need a more nuanced understanding of what kind of support they require in which situations and which providers are best suited to meet those needs.
The societal role of the consulting industry is also under scrutiny. The scandals of recent years have shaken trust. The new consulting approach must not only be more effective and efficient, but also more ethical and transparent. The days when consultants operated in secrecy and didn't have to disclose their methods and conflicts of interest are over. Clients, the public, and regulators are increasingly demanding accountability.
The transformation is already well underway. The next five to ten years will show which players successfully adapt and which fall by the wayside. One thing is certain: the consulting landscape will look dramatically different at the end of this period than it did at the beginning. Disruption is not a future possibility, but a present reality. How the industry and its key players react to it will not only determine their own future, but also influence how strategic decisions are made in business and society going forward.
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