Floods, heat-related deaths, tornadoes, and billions in damage: Germany's new crisis reality is here

The danger is growing: Which natural disasters are most likely in your region

Germany in permanent crisis mode – what feels like a mere feeling to many has become a disturbing certainty due to the hard facts of recent years. The images of the devastating flood disaster in the Ahr Valley in 2021 are still deeply embedded in the collective memory, but they are no longer a tragic isolated incident. The recent once-in-a-century floods in southern Germany, the dramatic Christmas floods of 2023/24, and an ever-growing list of extreme weather events demonstrate: Nature is striking more frequently and with ever greater force.

These events are not random freaks of nature, but alarming symptoms of profound change. The climate crisis is hitting Germany with full force, manifesting itself in a new, threatening normal. From torrential rains and deadly heat waves to a record number of tornadoes and devastating wildfires – the statistics paint a grim picture, demonstrating with frightening figures the massive financial damage and tragic loss of life. This overview of recent natural and severe weather disasters in Germany not only shows the toll of destruction but also highlights the urgent need to prepare for a future in which extremes become the norm.

Current flood disasters 2024-2025

Floods in Southern Germany 2024

The most severe severe weather event in recent history occurred from May 30 to June 4, 2024. Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg were particularly affected, with a Vb weather pattern leading to extreme rainfall. Within four days, 100 to 200 millimeters of rain fell widely, and even 300 millimeters in some places. These rainfall amounts reached statistical return periods of more than 100 years and led to once-in-a-century floods on several rivers.

The consequences were devastating: At least six people lost their lives, more than 15 Bavarian districts declared a state of emergency, and thousands had to be evacuated. Insured losses in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg alone amounted to approximately €1.6 billion each.

Christmas floods 2023/2024

From December 2023 to January 2024, 18 days of continuous rainfall led to severe flooding. Saxony-Anhalt and Lower Saxony along the Elbe, Weser, and Ems rivers were particularly affected. Nearly 7,000 people had to be evacuated, and nine people died.

The Ahr Valley flood disaster 2021

The most severe natural disaster since the Hamburg storm surge in 1962 occurred on July 14 and 15, 2021. The low pressure system “Bernd” brought torrential rain: within 24 hours, 100 to 150 liters per square meter fell in parts of Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia.

The disaster claimed over 180 lives, 135 of them in the Ahr Valley. The financial damage is estimated at over 40 billion euros—the largest loss ever caused by a natural disaster in Germany. In the Ahr Valley, over 9,000 buildings were destroyed or severely damaged, and 17,000 people lost all their possessions.

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Extreme weather and climate change 2024

Record heat

2024 was the warmest year in Germany since records began in 1881. The average temperature was 10.9 degrees Celsius—0.3 degrees higher than the previous record year of 2023. Spring 2024, in particular, was the warmest since 1881.

Heat deaths

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) estimates that around 2,800 people in Germany will die from heat-related illnesses in 2024, compared to around 3,100 in 2023. By comparison, in the record summer of 2018, there were around 8,500 heat-related deaths.

Insured damages

Extreme weather events caused insured losses of €5.7 billion in 2024. €2.6 billion of this was due to heavy rain and flooding—€1 billion more than the long-term average.

Tornadoes in Germany

Record year 2024

By the end of 2024, 32 tornadoes were confirmed, the highest number in years. The strongest tornado occurred on June 18 in southern Lower Saxony, reaching IF2 strength. In Hagen, a tornado tore off the church steeple roof on May 29.

Tornado season 2025

By mid-June 2025, 13 tornadoes had already been confirmed. The strongest occurred on June 7 in Donaustetten near Ulm, with wind speeds up to 220 km/h (IF2 strength).

forest fires

Record year 2025

: 2025 developed into the most devastating year for forest fires since records began in 1975. By July, 4,931 hectares of forest had already burned – more than in the previous record year of 2022 (4,293 hectares). Particularly at risk are Saarland (68% of the state's area), Rhineland-Palatinate (56%), Brandenburg (54%), and Saxony-Anhalt (55%).

2024 as a contrast year

2024, on the other hand, was a relatively fire-friendly year, with only 334 hectares of forest burned. The often wet weather prevented larger fires.

Other natural hazards

earthquake

: Germany regularly experiences light to moderate earthquakes, especially in the Cologne Bay, the Swabian Jura, and the southern Rhine Graben. The last major earthquake occurred on June 27, 2024, near Schopfheim with a magnitude of 4.2—the strongest in Baden-Württemberg since 2009.

Freezing rain and snow chaos

In January 2024, dangerous weather conditions with freezing rain caused significant traffic disruptions. Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Hesse were particularly affected, with extreme danger of black ice.

Long-term trend

Natural hazard statistics show that Germany experienced a total of 92 disasters between 1990 and 2024. Storms are the most common, followed by floods and extreme temperatures. However, most fatalities are caused by heat – the 2003 heat wave alone claimed over 9,000 lives.

The climate crisis is exacerbating these trends: extreme events are becoming more frequent, more intense, and causing ever greater damage. Germany is warming faster than the global average—by 1.8 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times.

Markus Becker

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Konrad Wolfenstein

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