Blind and defenseless? Europe's dangerous dependence on the US exposed – Without the US: 6 fatal gaps

Strategic autonomy or illusion? 6 core problems Europe must solve now

The decades-long certainty that the United States would act as Europe's military protector is a thing of the past. As the American focus shifts and transatlantic support diminishes, Europe is confronted with a stark reality: its own defense capability is riddled with dangerous dependencies and profound structural weaknesses. The crumbling US shield not only serves as a political wake-up call, but also, like a magnifying glass, exposes the critical gaps that fundamentally threaten Europe's security.

A detailed analysis of the European defense architecture without US compensation reveals six key areas where urgent action is needed. These deficits are not superficial deficiencies, but go to the heart of modern military capability. They range from the lack of independent reconnaissance and communications capabilities—the digital eyes and ears of every army—to the dependence on American technology in the area of ​​command and control systems to an alarming lack of offensive and defensive capabilities against modern threats such as hypersonic weapons and cyberattacks.

This article examines each of these six vulnerabilities—from intelligence and cyber warfare to precision weapons and missile defense, strategic mobility, and the complex issue of nuclear deterrence. This is about more than just the acquisition of new weapons systems; it's about the strategic autonomy of an entire continent. This analysis demonstrates why Europe is at a critical crossroads and the monumental efforts required to ensure its sovereignty in an increasingly uncertain world.

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Six measures Europe needs to become militarily independent

• Reconnaissance, Surveillance and Communications (ISR)
  • Strong dependence on US systems such as satellite communications (e.g. Starlink) and GPS, which makes Europe strategically “blind” and vulnerable to blackmail.
• Command, control and cyber capabilities (C2)
  • Lack of own AI-supported command and control systems (Multi-Domain C2) and inadequate defense capabilities against cyber and electronic attacks on critical infrastructure.
• Offensive capabilities and precision weapons
  • Significant investment gap in long-range precision weapons critical for SEAD/DEAD missions.
• Defensive systems, especially air and missile defense
  • Lack of defense capabilities against modern threats such as hypersonic weapons and ballistic missiles, leaving critical infrastructure vulnerable.
• Logistics and Strategic Mobility
  • Lack of ability to move troops and equipment quickly and efficiently over long distances and across national borders, as well as deficits in overall operational readiness.
• Nuclear deterrence
  • Nuclear deterrence lies solely in the hands of France and the (former EU member) United Kingdom, without a common European doctrine or strategy.

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Europe's army at a crossroads: These weaknesses are an existential threat

What fundamental weaknesses will European defense reveal if American support declines? This question preoccupies Xpert.Digital intensively, as it forms the basis for all further strategic considerations. After analyzing the available data, it becomes clear that Europe has significant deficits in six critical areas.

What does it mean specifically that Europe lacks its own intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities? This dependence on American systems represents a fundamental vulnerability. Europe lacks independent access to satellite-based communications and is reliant on American systems such as Starlink and GPS. This dependence means that European defense operations can be compromised at any time by US political decisions.

How serious is the shortage of modern reconnaissance systems? The high demand for advanced systems like the CSO-3 demonstrates that Europe urgently needs to develop its own capabilities. Without independent reconnaissance capabilities, Europe will remain strategically blind and unable to make autonomous security decisions.

Command and control systems as a strategic vulnerability

Why is the heavy reliance on American suppliers for AI-based battlefield command and control systems so problematic? This dependence goes to the heart of modern warfare. Multi-domain C2 systems coordinate operations across land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. Without its own systems, Europe cannot conduct independent military operations.

How can hybrid and electronic attacks increase the need for cyber and electronic warfare capabilities? The modern threat landscape shows that traditional kinetic attacks are increasingly being supplemented or replaced by cyber operations and electronic warfare. Critical infrastructure such as power grids, communications systems, and transportation networks are becoming primary targets. Europe must therefore develop robust defense systems against these new threats.

What does the term Multi-Domain C2 mean in practical terms? These systems must seamlessly integrate different operational domains and make real-time decisions based on complex data analyses. Artificial intelligence plays a central role in processing enormous amounts of data and identifying threat patterns.

Offensive capabilities and investment backlogs

What are the implications of the significant investment gap in long-range precision weapons? Europe faces the challenge that modern conflicts are increasingly being fought over long distances. SEAD and DEAD missions to suppress enemy air defense systems require sophisticated weapons systems that Europe currently lacks in sufficient quantities.

How are SEAD and DEAD missions defined, and why are they so important? SEAD stands for Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses, while DEAD stands for Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses. These missions are crucial for air superiority and enable the neutralization or destruction of enemy air defense systems. Without these capabilities, air operations cannot be conducted successfully.

What makes long-range precision weapons so important for modern military operations? These weapons systems enable strategic targets to be engaged from a safe distance without exposing friendly troops to unnecessary risks. They offer a cost-effective alternative to large-scale ground operations and can end conflicts more quickly and with fewer casualties.

Defensive challenges and threat scenarios

Why do Russia's and China's advances in deep-strike and hypersonic weapons require a rapid EU air and missile defense system? These new weapons systems fundamentally change the strategic balance. Hypersonic weapons can circumvent traditional defense systems and reach strategic targets in the shortest possible time. Europe must therefore fundamentally modernize its defense systems.

How vulnerable is Europe's critical infrastructure really? Telecommunications systems and power plants are inadequately protected and urgently need air and missile defense systems. A failure of these systems would not only hamper military operations but also significantly disrupt civilian life.

What does it mean when critical infrastructure becomes a military target? In modern conflicts, the boundaries between civilian and military targets are blurring. Power plants, communications networks, and transportation infrastructure are vital to both the civilian population and military operations. An attack on these systems can have devastating consequences.

Logistics and strategic mobility

What problems arise from the lack of modernization of strategic mobility? The ability to transport troops and equipment quickly and efficiently is vital for any modern army. Europe is lagging behind in the modernization of its transport and logistics systems, which significantly limits its ability to respond to threats.

How is strategic mobility defined in the context of modern warfare? Strategic mobility encompasses the ability to move large quantities of personnel, equipment, and supplies over long distances. This includes not only the transport itself, but also the coordination of complex logistical operations across national borders.

Why is personnel readiness and combat capability a critical factor? Even the best equipment is useless without well-trained and combat-ready personnel. Europe must invest in both the technical equipment and the training and preparation of its armed forces.

Nuclear deterrence and European sovereignty

What challenges arise from the fact that only France and the United Kingdom possess nuclear deterrents? This situation creates an imbalance within Europe and raises questions about collective security and strategic autonomy. Most EU member states depend on the nuclear guarantees of other countries.

How is British-French nuclear cooperation and coordination developing? Despite the deepening cooperation between these two nuclear powers, EU-wide discussions on a joint nuclear strategy are still pending. This situation is further complicated by Brexit, as the United Kingdom is no longer a member of the EU.

What does it mean for the European security architecture if nuclear discussions at the EU level are still pending? The absence of a common nuclear doctrine weakens Europe's position in international negotiations and makes its deterrence strategy unpredictable. Potential aggressors can exploit this uncertainty.

Strategic implications of the American reduction in support

Why does the decline in American support pose such fundamental challenges for Europe? Decades of dependence on American security guarantees have led Europe to neglect its own defense capabilities. This strategy was cost-effective but created dangerous dependencies.

How can Europe regain its strategic autonomy? The path to strategic autonomy requires massive investments in all six identified areas: intelligence and communications, command and control, offensive capabilities, defensive systems, logistics and mobility, and deterrence. This is not only a technical challenge, but also a political and economic one.

What timeframes are realistic for building independent European defense capabilities? The development of complex weapons systems and military infrastructures takes years or even decades. Europe therefore faces the challenge of closing short-term gaps while simultaneously building long-term capabilities.

Reconnaissance and communication as the cornerstone of defense

How critical is the lack of EU-owned ISR capabilities for European security? Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance form the nervous system of modern armed forces. Without these capabilities, armies operate virtually blind, unable to detect threats early or respond to them appropriately.

What does it mean in practical terms that Europe has only limited access to American systems like Starlink and GPS? This dependence can be disastrous in critical situations. If the US restricts access for political reasons or technical problems arise, Europe is left without alternative means of communication.

Why is the high demand for modern reconnaissance systems like the CSO-3 so significant? The French CSO reconnaissance satellite system demonstrates that Europe is certainly capable of developing state-of-the-art systems. However, the high demand for such systems highlights that existing capacities are far from sufficient.

Cyber ​​warfare and electronic threats

What new dimensions do hybrid and electronic attacks open up for potential aggressors? These attack methods make it possible to inflict significant damage without resorting to traditional military means. Cyberattacks can paralyze infrastructure, while electronic warfare disrupts communications systems.

How can European armed forces prepare for these new threats? Protecting against cyber and electronic attacks requires entirely new approaches. Traditional defense strategies fall short. Instead, specialized systems and training programs are needed.

What makes defending against cyberattacks so complex? Cyber ​​threats are constantly evolving and can emerge out of nowhere. Attackers often exploit civilian infrastructure and technologies, making defense more difficult. Furthermore, attributing attacks to specific actors is often difficult.

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Precision weapons and modern warfare

Why do long-range precision weapons represent such a decisive advantage? These weapons systems enable strategic targets to be engaged with minimal collateral damage and low risk to friendly troops. They can resolve conflicts quickly and achieve political goals with limited military effort.

How do SEAD and DEAD operations work in practice? These operations are highly complex and require precise coordination between various weapon systems. First, enemy radar systems are identified and located, then they are either temporarily disrupted or permanently destroyed.

What impact does a lack of investment in this area have on overall defense capabilities? Without modern precision weapons, Europe is reliant on either exerting massive pressure on allies in conflicts or resorting to outdated, less effective methods. This weakens its negotiating position in international crises.

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Hypersonic weapons and the future of missile defense

What makes hypersonic weapons so revolutionary and threatening? These weapons travel at more than five times the speed of sound and can change their trajectory mid-flight. Traditional missile defense systems are virtually ineffective against them because they are too fast and unpredictable.

How are Russia's and China's advances in deep strikes changing the strategic balance? These countries can now attack strategic targets deep within Europe's hinterland without Europe having effective countermeasures. This is forcing Europe to completely reassess its defense strategy.

What technological breakthroughs are needed for effective hypersonic defense systems? The development of effective defense systems requires revolutionary advances in sensor technology, data processing, and weapons systems. Directed-energy weapons such as lasers could provide a solution, but they are not yet sufficiently advanced.

Critical infrastructures as strategic vulnerabilities

Why are telecommunications systems and power plants so vulnerable yet so important? These systems form the backbone of modern societies and armies. A failure can lead to a complete collapse of civil and military order within hours or days.

How can air and missile defense systems protect critical infrastructure? Modern defense systems must be strategically positioned to protect vital assets. This requires a comprehensive risk analysis and prioritization of the most critical facilities.

What role does civil-military cooperation play in the protection of critical infrastructure? Protecting these facilities requires close cooperation between military and civilian authorities. Private companies that operate critical infrastructure must be included in defense planning.

Strategic mobility and logistical challenges

What exactly does the modernization of strategic mobility entail? This includes not only new means of transport, but also improved command and control systems, standardized equipment, and streamlined logistical processes. The ability to rapidly deploy troops and equipment is crucial.

How does a lack of strategic mobility impair military effectiveness? Without rapid deployment capabilities, armed forces cannot respond to threats in a timely manner. This gives aggressors a decisive time advantage and can lead to the creation of faits accompli.

What particular challenges arise from Europe's geographical structure? Europe consists of many different countries with different standards, infrastructures, and bureaucratic processes. Coordinating troop movements across national borders is therefore particularly complex.

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Personnel and combat readiness

Why is personnel readiness and combat capability such a critical factor? Modern weapons systems are highly complex and require intensive training. Without well-trained personnel, even the most advanced technologies are useless. Furthermore, troop motivation and morale are crucial to success.

How can European armed forces solve their personnel problems? This requires a multi-pronged approach: better pay and working conditions, modern equipment, meaningful missions, and social recognition. Digitalization of the armed forces can also attract young people.

What impact do demographic changes have on personnel recruitment? Europe is facing an aging society, which makes recruiting young people more difficult. At the same time, the qualification requirements for military personnel are continually increasing.

Nuclear complexities and European integration

How does Brexit affect nuclear cooperation between France and the United Kingdom? The United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU significantly complicates the coordination of nuclear strategies. While the UK remains a NATO member, it is no longer involved in EU decision-making processes.

Why are EU-wide discussions on nuclear deterrence so difficult? Nuclear weapons are the ultimate means of state sovereignty. France is understandably reluctant to share control over its nuclear arsenal. At the same time, non-nuclear EU states have different views on nuclear strategies.

What alternatives are there to developing a common European nuclear doctrine? Europe could develop enhanced deterrence guarantees without necessarily striving for full integration of nuclear arsenals. Strengthening conventional deterrence could also reduce the importance of nuclear weapons.

Market opportunities and industrial implications

What business opportunities do the identified defense gaps open up? Each of the six critical areas offers significant market potential for companies that can develop innovative solutions. From satellite communications to hypersonic defense systems, new technologies are in demand.

How can companies benefit from the necessary modernization of European defense? Closing the identified gaps requires massive investments in research and development. Companies with the relevant expertise can enter into long-term contracts and partnerships with European governments.

What role does Franco-German armaments cooperation play in addressing these challenges? Germany and France are already working on joint projects such as the Future Combat Air System. This cooperation could serve as a model for other European armaments projects and reduce costs.

Time urgency and prioritization

Which of the identified gaps should be addressed as a priority? Intelligence and communications, as well as cyber defense, are likely to have the highest priority, as they can be developed relatively quickly and provide immediate benefits. Hypersonic defense and nuclear integration are longer-term projects.

How can short-term solutions be combined with long-term strategies? Europe must develop interim solutions while simultaneously working on permanent capacities. This could mean initially licensing American or other systems while developing its own alternatives.

What factors determine the speed with which Europe can close its defense gaps? Political will, available financial resources, technological expertise, and industrial capacity are the decisive factors. The international security situation can also act as a catalyst or obstacle.

Technological sovereignty and dependency reduction

Why is technological sovereignty so crucial in defense? Dependence on foreign technologies can be exploited in critical situations. Supply freezes, sanctions, or technological backdoors can endanger national security.

How can Europe strike a balance between cooperation and autonomy? Complete autarky is neither possible nor desirable, but critical dependencies must be reduced. Europe should focus on key technologies and enter into strategic partnerships with trusted allies.

Which industries and technologies are most important for European defense autonomy? Semiconductors, AI systems, satellite technology, cybersecurity, and advanced materials are likely the most critical areas. These technologies have both civilian and military applications.

Financial challenges and investment strategies

What are the financial dimensions of the investments needed to close the defense gaps? The costs will likely amount to hundreds of billions of euros over several decades. This requires a fundamental reassessment of European countries' defense budgets.

How can the enormous costs be distributed among European countries? A common European defense fund could distribute the costs fairly and create synergies. Alternatively, countries could specialize in certain capabilities and share them with others.

What economic side effects can be expected from defense investments? Military research and development often leads to civilian innovations. The investments could strengthen European technology companies and create new jobs in high-tech sectors.

International dimensions and alliances

How does the changing geopolitical situation affect European defense requirements? The rise of China, Russia's increasing aggressiveness, and uncertainty about the long-term American commitment are fundamentally changing the security landscape.

What role can partnerships with countries outside the EU play? Collaborations with countries such as Japan, South Korea, or Australia could close technological gaps and reduce costs. These countries face similar challenges and could be valuable partners.

How can Europe coordinate its defense efforts with NATO commitments? European defense integration must be complementary to NATO membership, not competitive. This requires careful political and military coordination.

Strategic recommendations

What are the key findings from the analysis of European defense gaps? Europe is facing the greatest security challenge since the end of the Cold War. The gaps identified in six critical areas threaten not only its military capability but also its political sovereignty.

What steps should Europe take as priorities? First, the most urgent gaps in intelligence and cybersecurity must be closed. In parallel, work should be carried out on long-term solutions for hypersonic defense and nuclear integration. This requires unprecedented political determination and financial resources.

How can the crisis become an opportunity? The necessary investments can transform Europe into a leading center for defense technologies. Developing its own capabilities will not only strengthen security but also improve technological and economic competitiveness.

This analysis clearly shows that while the decline in American support creates challenges, it also offers an opportunity for Europe to finally achieve strategic autonomy. The path will be long and costly, but the alternative—permanent dependence and vulnerability—is unacceptable for a region of Europe's economic and political importance.

Markus Becker

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Chairman SME Connect Defense Working Group

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Konrad Wolfenstein

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