Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen – the 15 % customs cleaning between the EU and the USA: a comprehensive analysis of the consequences
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Published on: July 28, 2025 / update from: July 28, 2025 – Author: Konrad Wolfenstein
Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen – the 15 % customs cleaning between the EU and the USA: a comprehensive analysis of the consequences – Image: Xpert.digital
Extra class trading diplomacy? Mega agreement concludes from the Leyen and Trump – quis vicit?
What does the agreement between the EU and the USA mean?
The agreement between the European Union and the United States in the monthly customs dispute marks a decisive turning point in the transatlantic trade relationships. After intensive negotiations between the EU Commission President Ursula von Leyen and US President Donald Trump in Scotland, a compromise was achieved that prevents a further escalation of the trade conflict.
The core of the agreement lies in a basic customs set of 15 percent to most European imports to the United States, which means that the 30 percent tariffs originally threatened by Trump were averted. This agreement also affects strategically important areas such as automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. While Trump described this agreement as the “biggest deal of all”, business representatives show themselves significantly more cautious in their evaluation.
In return, the EU had to make considerable concessions: it undertook to buy US energy worth $ 750 billion until the end of Trump's term and additional investments of $ 600 billion in the commitments to reduce the US trade deficit with the EU, which was a central criticism of the Trump administration.
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How did the German economy react to customs cleaning?
The reactions of the German economy to customs cleaning are mixed to critically. Helena Melnikov, managing director of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), summed up the ambivalent mood: The German economy could “take a deep breath” for the time being, but the deal has “its price, and this price is also at the expense of German and European economy”.
The Federal Association of German Industry (BDI) was much more critical and described the agreement as a “inadequate compromise”, which sends a “fatal signal” to the tightly intertwined economy on both sides of the Atlantic. Wolfgang Niedermark from the BDI warned that a dial of 15 percent will also have “immense negative effects on export -oriented German industry”.
The BDI particularly criticized the BDI that no agreement was reached for steel and aluminum exports and the tariffs remain 50 percent. This is an “additional deep strike” for a key industry that is already facing enormous challenges in international competition.
The German Foreign Trade Association BGA called the customs cleaning a “painful compromise” and warned that each percent inch was one percent too much. President Dirk Jandura said that the customs surcharge meant an “existential threat” for many retailers.
What specific effects does the agreement on German companies have?
The effects of customs cleaning on German companies are complex and affect different industries. For the German automotive industry, the 2023 were worth 23.4 billion euros to the USA, the reduction of tariffs from 27.5 percent to 15 percent means a noticeable relief. Chancellor Friedrich Merz therefore welcomed the agreement to the automotive industry.
The mechanical engineering industry and the chemical sector, which are traditionally strong exporters to the USA, have to prepare for higher costs. Wolfgang Große Entrup, general manager of the Chemical Association VCI, commented: "Anyone who expects a hurricane is grateful for a storm," emphasized that the price for both sides was high and that Europe's exports would lose competitiveness.
For small and medium-sized companies that do not have their own lobby channels in Washington, the tariffs represent a special challenge. Helena Melnikov warned of the agreement that aluminum processors to car suppliers to chemical and pharmaceutical companies and winegrowers are affected by many successful medium-sized companies.
The DIHK fears that German companies could lose one billion euros in USA exports every month if persistent uncertainty. Trump's customs announcement in April had already depressed the German export by 10.5 percent in the previous month, and in May a further decline followed by 7.7 percent.
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Why did the EU accept this deal despite the criticism?
The EU accepted the deal out of several strategic considerations, whereby the focus was on avoiding a further escalation. From August 1, 2025, customs duties of 30 percent had threatened European products without an agreement, which could have leaded to a full -blown trade war.
A crucial factor was concerned that Trump could build up additional threats if the trade conflict is further escalated. This included fears that he could once again question military assistance within the NATO or to reverse support for Ukraine – both extremely sensitive issues in view of the threats from Russia.
The EU was in a structurally weaker negotiating position due to its dependence on the United States on security issues. As ZDF correspondent Ulf Röller analyzed: "The EU is simply blackmailed". If the Europeans were not so dependent on the United States in the field of defense, they might not have accepted the deal.
Economically, the EU, with around 450 million citizens in 27 countries, is definitely a real market power that could hardly affect the United States in a trade conflict. However, due to the security policy dependencies, this strength could not be fully converted into negotiation power.
What role does the unequal trade balance between the USA and the EU play?
The trade balance between the USA and the EU is a complex topic that goes far beyond the pure number of goods. Traditionally, the EU has a significant surplus in goods trade in the USA, while the United States dominates in service trade.
In 2024, the EU recorded a trade surplus of around 157 billion euros in goods trading with the United States. At the same time, however, the United States has a significant surplus in service trade – the EU recorded a service deficit of 109 billion euros compared to the United States in 2023. This imbalance is particularly pronounced in digital services, where US companies such as Google, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft dominate the European market.
An important aspect that is often overlooked in traditional trade statistics is the way digital services are recorded. Many US technology companies generate considerable sales in Europe, but these are often booked through subsidiaries in countries such as Ireland and Luxembourg and therefore do not appear to be direct US exports in the EU.
According to estimates, the United States exported digital services worth $ 283 billion to Europe in 2021. An EU-wide digital tax could already provide the EU an increase of almost 40 billion euros next year if 5 percent taxes are raised to all EU businesses by large digital companies.
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Digital fainting: The secret dependence on US digital giants
Digital fainting: The secret dependence on US digital giants – customs cleaning: victory and defeat – USA and EU – Image: Xpert.digital
How dependent is Europe on US digital services?
The digital dependence on the USA is considerable and extends over all important technology areas. A total of 70 percent of the basic models for artificial intelligence used worldwide come from the United States, while European products only make up seven percent of the software, internet and microchips applications.
In cloud computing, the dependence is particularly pronounced: Almost 40 percent of German companies stated that they were to a large extent to non-European cloud providers, while fewer than a quarter use European cloud services. In the field of artificial intelligence, the situation is even more dramatic – only about ten percent of German companies use European AI offers.
This dependence has geopolitical dimensions. The cloud act enables US authorities to access data stored by American technology companies, even if they are stored outside the US boundaries. This has triggered fears that sensitive European data could be subject to legal control in the United States.
Experts warn of the risk of digital blackmailability. Dennis-Kenji Kipker from the cyberintelligence institute emphasizes: “Missing digital sovereignty makes Europe's economy and IT blackmailable – politically, economical and technological”. The structural dependency can also be seen in the fact that Denmark was the first EU country to decide to exit the use of Microsoft products.
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What does digital sovereignty mean for Europe?
Digital sovereignty describes the ability of states, companies and individuals, their digital infrastructures, technologies, services and data to be able to control, design and use independently. For Europe, this means a fundamental realignment of digital policy.
Claudia Plattner, President of the Federal Office for Information Technology (BSI), defines digital sovereignty as “decision options”. On the one hand, “competitive European products” are needed and on the other hand, international technologies would have to be integrated “that they can be used safely and sovereign for us”.
The way to digital sovereignty requires massive investments. In the investment in artificial intelligence, Europe was $ 2.4 billion far behind the USA, which invested $ 22.4 billion. The EU only receives five percent of the risk capital to be awarded worldwide, while the United States received 52 percent and China 40 percent.
Two main paths are discussed for digital sovereignty: an economic -liberal territorial approach and a planetary approach. Both aim to create their own clouds, networks and data streams for Europe. The Eurostack initiative calls for a billion dollar investments to make Europe more competitive in global competition for digital sovereignty.
What effects does the agreement have on transatlantic relationships?
The customs cleaning between the EU and the USA has far -reaching consequences for transatlantic relationships and reveals structural changes in global distribution of power. The agreement shows that the traditional partnership has given way to an asymmetrical relationship at eye level in which the EU is increasingly acting in a reactive position.
The geopolitical realignment of the United States has been observed since the beginning of the 2000s, with the American interest increasingly moving into the Indo-Pacific space. This development is independent of the respective US president and reflects the strategic focus on China as the main rival.
For Europe, this means that it can no longer rely blindly to the USA and has to find its place in a new world order. For the United States, transatlantic relationships are no longer of the highest strategic relevance, which leads to stormy times for Europe, especially Germany.
The transatlantic commercial and technology council (TTC), which was established in 2021 as the most important forum for transatlantic cooperation, remains a central instrument for avoiding conflict. However, progress in transatlantic trade is limited – after almost three years, successes in technological security have been achieved, but little progress in trade liberalization.
How should Europe react to these challenges?
Europe faces the task of developing a more independent and self -confident economic policy that at the same time stabilizes transatlantic relationships. The BDI demands that the EU have to show "that it is more than an internal market" and has to appear as a "power factor".
A key strategy lies in strengthening the European inland market. If existing trade barriers and restrictions in the EU internal market were dismantled by half, exports from German industry in most EU member states could grow by an additional percent per year by 2035. If the hurdles are completely reduced, growth could almost be doubled.
The diversification of trade relationships is another important component. Helena Melnikov calls for the ratification of the Mercosur Agreement and the continuation of the negotiations with India, Indonesia and Australia. "An economy -strong economy like Germany needs more open markets, not new hurdles," she emphasizes.
In the area of digital sovereignty, Europe has to make massive efforts. The new federal government should make European economic policy a top priority and use its own coordinator in the Chancellery. Cooperation with the largest EU countries should be prioritized, which together with Germany generate two thirds of European GDP.
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What are the teachings for the future of European trade policy?
The customs cleaning between the EU and the USA illustrates fundamental weaknesses in the European negotiating position and shows the need for structural reforms. A central realization is that economic strength alone is not sufficient if it is not flanked by corresponding political and security policy independence.
Europe has to learn to convert its economic power of 450 million consumers and a GDP of over 15 trillion euros more effectively into political negotiation strength. This requires a stronger integration of European foreign and security policy as well as the establishment of your own defense capacities.
The diversification of economic relationships is increasingly becoming a question of survival. The one -sided dependence on the USA in critical technology areas makes Europe blackmailed and limits its freedom of action. A strategic realignment must include both the strengthening of European technology companies and the establishment of alternative partnerships.
Experience with the customs dispute also shows that traditional trade instruments reach their limits in a digitized global economy. The EU must develop new approaches that meet the reality of a networked, service -oriented economy. This also includes the revision of the trade statistics in order to be able to grasp the real scope of economic interdependencies.
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Between damage limitation and strategic realignment
The customs cleaning between the EU and the USA, as Helena Melnikov aptly formulated, is only “damage limitation”. It prevented a further escalation of the trade conflict, but did not solve the structural problems in the transatlantic economic relationships.
The deal reveals the digital and security policy dependence on the United States and shows the limits of an economic policy strategy that relies too much on external partners. The future requires a fundamental realignment towards more European independence, without damaging the valuable transatlantic relationships.
Europe is faced with the historical task of establishing itself as an independent power block that is able to act economically and technologically and security policy. Customs cleaning may have created planning security at short notice, but in the long term it illustrates the urgency of European emancipation in a multipolar world order.
The way to a more balanced transatlantic partnership, paradoxically, leads over more European independence. Only a strong, self -confident Europe can negotiate with the United States at eye level and defend the common western values and interests in an increasingly fragmented world.
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