Diplomatic crisis at the NATO summit in the Hague? Asia's most important partners stay away

New geopolitical reality: NATO summit without the most important partners from the Indopazacific room

The security policy landscape of Europe and the Indopazacifik experienced a significant turning point on June 24th and 25th June 2025 when an unprecedented diplomatic situation occurred at the NATO summit in the Haag. Contrary to the original plans, the heads of state and government of the three most important NATO partner countries from the Asian-Pacific area remained away from the high-ranking meeting. This development throws a significant light on the current tensions in transatlantic relationships and the changed geopolitical dynamics between the United States, Europe and its strategic partners in the Indopazacifik.

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The cancellations and their immediate effects

South Korea: domestic political priorities and geopolitical uncertainties

The South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung, who had only started his office after a severe domestic political crisis in June 2025, decided at short notice against participating in the NATO summit. His cancellation was made after days of speculation and contradictory signals from the Presidential Office in Seoul. The national security advisor Wi Sung-LAC initially promised participation before the final decision was made against the trip to the Hague.

Lee Jae-Myung, who had worked his way up from the simplest circumstances to the lawyer for human rights and had survived serious personal crises, was faced with enormous domestic challenges after his election victory. The profound social tensions in South Korea, characterized by generation conflicts and the world's lowest birth rate, require its immediate attention in their own country.

In addition, the increased import duties of the Trump administration, especially on South Korean automobiles, and the restrictions for chip exports to China question the economic foundations of the East Asian tiger state. These factors, combined with the need to react with Russia at North Korea's departure from reunification and its reinforced alliance, made a concentration on domestic matters inevitable.

Japan: Strategic considerations and disappointed expectations

Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has been in office since October 2024 and has extensive experience as a former Minister of Defense, initially promised his participation. The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs had confirmed three days before the summit that Ishiba, together with the NATO allies, wanted to confirm that the security of the euro-Atlantic and Indopazacific region was inextricably linked.

However, the U-turn was made when it became clear that NATO's planned meeting with the Indopazacifik four states would probably not take place and that a bilateral conversation with US President Donald Trump was unlikely. Ishiba, who is considered an experienced security politician and was instrumental in preparing the Iraqi use of the Japanese self -defense forces, apparently did not see any strategic benefits in a long journey without substantial diplomatic results.

The decision is particularly noteworthy, since Japan had regularly participated in NATO peaks since 2022 after the country was invited to Ukraine for the first time after the Russian march. Japan and NATO have significantly deepened their partnership since the beginning of the Ukraine War and consider the security of the Indopazific Ecise as inseparable to the Europe.

Australia: domestic policy agenda before international diplomacy

Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also canceled his participation and instead sent Defense Minister Richard Marles. Albanese, who had only been re -elected in May 2025 for a second term and had won a historical landslide victory, concentrated on urgent domestic matters.

The laboratory politician received an impressive confirmation in the elections in May 2025, contrary to a global anti-incumbnency wave, and won 17 additional seats. His government is now holding 94 seats in the House of Representatives - the highest number that has ever reached a party in the Australian federal parliament. This strong domestic policy position made it possible to put international appointments back in favor of implementing its election promises.

Australia is one of the most reliable allies in the United States in the Indopazacifik and has considerable military skills and extensive experience in expeditions. The country traditionally participated in NATO operations in the Middle East and in the Indian Ocean and is a so-called “Enhanced Opportunities Partner” from NATO.

The Indopazacifik four: a strategic partnership under pressure

Definition and meaning of the IP-4

The Indopazacifik four consist of South Korea, Japan, New Zealand and Australia-four countries, all of which represent borders and important NATO partners in the Asian-Pacific region on the western Pacific Ocean. Japan and South Korea are located in East Asia, while Australia and New Zealand belong to Australasia.

These countries have continuously expanded their bilateral relationships with NATO in the past two decades. The cooperation takes place as part of the so -called “Individual Tailored Partnership Program” - a jointly agreed partnership framework that identifies areas of common interest in the cooperation.

Development of NATO indopacifik relationships

Cooperation between NATO and its indopazacifts has developed in various areas, including cyber defense, the agenda for women, peace and security, military interoperability, maritime security and the “Science for Peace and Security” program. These partnerships played an important role, especially during NATO engagement in Afghanistan.

Experts from the Royal United Services Institute have already declared NATO a leading institutional platform for the Indopazificifik after the summit in Washington. This is not only due to the increasing intensity of cooperation with the IP-4, but also because it is one of the few formats in which Japan and South Korea come together for security policy.

From Asia to Europe: How geopolitical tensions endanger our care

The geopolitical importance of the Indopazacific for the global security architecture can hardly be overestimated. Asia is the most dynamic growth region worldwide, at the same time the Indopazacific room is faced with conflict lines that are of global importance and can affect Europe and Germany directly.

Ninety percent of global trade takes place on the sea route, a large part of it through the Indopazific. An impairment of the transport routes in this region would have serious consequences for the supply chains from and from Europe and thus endanger the prosperity and care.

At the Indopazacifik, the nuclear paws India, Pakistan, China and Russia and North Korea are located with its nuclear program. Countries in the region such as the USA, Taiwan, Japan and China upgrade strongly. From 2010 to 2019, armor expenditure in the region rose by 50 percent, in the case of China by 80 percent.

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Geopolitical tensions and their effects

The role of Donald Trump and American politics

The cancellations of the three most important indopacific partners are directly related to the return of Donald Trump to the White House and his unpredictable foreign policy. Trump had already caused upset at the G7 summit when he left the meeting prematurely and thus had a planned conversation with South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung burst.

Christopher Johnstone from the American management consultancy Asia Group, a former bidding employee, sees a symbolic break in the cancellations. He suspects that all three heads of state see little sense in a meeting in which the United States will put even more pressure on its allies to increase their defense spending. They are simply annoyed by Donald Trump.

The second Trump administration has revived the central principle of “America First”, which has led to the application of requirements for all important foreign policy obligations of the United States. The European Parliament expressed concern about the rapid pace in which the US government reverses established partnerships.

Security threats and hybrid warfare

The current security situation has been dominated by the Russian attack war against Ukraine since February 2022. This war, which is contrary to international law, has severely shaken the European security regulations and shows far -reaching effects on global security architecture.

Russia has massively upgraded since the beginning of the war and has now produced more weapons and other armaments in three months than all NATO countries in one year. The Federal Intelligence Service will be able to attack Russia in the next four to seven years to attack NATO areas militarily.

At the same time, many NATO members are increasingly the target of hybrid attacks from Russia, especially espionage, sabotage and cyber attacks. These hybrid threats are characterized by the coordinated use of various methods of illegitimate influence without the threshold being achieved for formal warfare.

China as a strategic challenge

China is an increasing threat to the European Security Architecture. In the past two years, China had always explained that Russia will not deliver fatal weapons, but European secret services are proven that China delivers deadly drones that are produced in the Xinjiang region and then sent to Russia.

In the South China Sea, the risks of a military discussion in the Indopazacifik are currently greatest. China's increasingly aggressive demeanor in the South China Sea and in Taiwanstrasse as well as the concern for a possible absence of military US support are challenges that affect Germany and allies in the Indopazific.

The NATO reaction and strategic realignment

Increasing defense spending

At the NATO summit in Die Haag, the Member States agreed to a drastic increase in their defense budget to five percent of the respective gross domestic product by 2035. This target provides that 3.5 percent of GDP are used for defense measures in the actual sense such as armaments or salaries for soldiers. Another 1.5 percent should flow into infrastructure such as the expansion of militarily usable roads and bridges or cyber protection.

This massive upgrade is not only due to the threat of Russia, but also because of the concern that the United States could avert the alliance if European states no longer take responsibility for conventional deterrence and defense on its continent.

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Strengthening the armaments industry and technological cooperation

Another focus of the NATO summit was on the expansion of the armaments industry and strengthening military skills. NATO partners must extensively strengthen their deterrent and defense ability to meet the changed threat situation.

Japan and NATO have already intensified their cooperation in the area of ​​the armaments industry. Japan's head of government Shigeru Ishiba and NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte agreed to work together in the development of top technologies, which can be used for both civilian and military purposes.

Maritime security and Sealift capacities

The conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated the importance of land -based logistics, which should commemorate decision -makers of the importance of seabasoned logistics. Without the ability to supply a conflict area with necessities such as food, ammunition, new weapons and energy, military forces cannot maintain a conflict for long.

Experts estimate that more than 200 cargo ships-including roll-on/roll-off ships, ferries, product tankers and container ships-are necessary to manage and win a confrontation with China in the western Pacific. A European confrontation with Russia would probably bring a similar Sealift challenge between North America and Europe.

New Zealand as the only representative

Only New Zealand of the four Indopazific partners took part in the NATO summit at the level of government heads. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was the only one to represent the voice of the IP 4 countries in the high-ranking consultations in the Hague.

This situation underlines the diplomatic isolation, in which NATO is located with regard to its indopacific partnerships. New Zealand, the smallest of the four IP 4 countries, could not represent the strategic weight that the entire group normally brings into NATO consultations.

Long -term effects on transatlantic relationships

European independence versus American leadership

The cancellation of the indopacific partners raise fundamental questions about the future of transatlantic security architecture. The EU and NATO are planning a radical reorganization of the European security landscape, whereby the central question is: How much European autonomy is possible without endangering the vital transatlantic partnership?

France traditionally urges more European independence, while Eastern European countries rely on a close bond with the United States. As so often in recent years, Germany is indecisive between the positions and gets involved in bureaucratic processes.

Strengthening security cooperation in and with Asia

Asia and the Pacific room are of great strategic importance for the EU, since Europe's security and prosperity are closely intertwined with developments in the region. However, the processing of security issues in and with Asia is complex and difficult, because the Asian security landscape is shaped by numerous factors.

These include historical abuses and territorial disputes, ethnic tensions, the interaction between local and external power shifts as well as global challenges such as organized crime, terrorism and the security of the sea routes and the Internet.

A turning point in international security policy

The diplomatic crisis at the NATO summit in the Haag marks a significant turning point in international relationships. The unprecedented cancellation of the three most important indopacific partners of NATO reflect deeper tensions in the global security architecture and raise questions about the future of transatlantic partnerships.

The events make it clear that the world is in a phase of the security policy upheaval. While NATO has adapted to the greatest challenges since the end of the Cold War, relationships with the strategic partners in the Indopazacifik have to be re -calibrated.

The absence of South Korea, Japan and Australia at the NATO summit does not mean the end of security policy cooperation, but requires new formats and approaches. NATO and its European Member States have to recognize that a successful security strategy in the 21st century can only be achieved through real partnership at eye level with the Indopacific democracies.

The challenges are huge: from Russian aggression in Europe to China's growing projection in the Indopazacifik to hybrid threats and cyber security risks. At the same time, there are opportunities for a redesign of the international security architecture, which corresponds to the realities of the 21st century that has become multipolar.

The events of Den Haag will enter history as a catalyst for necessary reforms in international security policy. It is now up to the political leaders in Washington, Brussels, Tokyo, Seoul and Canberra to draw the right teachings from this diplomatic crisis and to lay the basics for a more stable and cooperative future.

Markus Becker

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Chairman SME Connect Defense Working Group

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Konrad Wolfenstein

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