Housing crisis in Canada, job slump and US tariffs: Canada's 5 biggest problems – and the daring plan to save it
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Published on: October 2, 2025 / Updated on: October 2, 2025 – Author: Konrad Wolfenstein

Housing crisis in Canada, job slump and US tariffs: Canada's 5 biggest problems – and the daring rescue plan – Image: Xpert.Digital
Red alert for Canada: A trade conflict and a home-made crisis threaten the future
Rents unaffordable, prosperity declining: Canada's economy in a tight spot – these are the reasons
Canada, long a symbol of stability, prosperity, and a high quality of life, is facing a series of profound challenges that are shaking the foundations of its economy. A complex of structural and cyclical problems has maneuvered the country into a difficult situation: At its core is a persistent productivity crisis, which has led to per capita wealth stagnating or even declining for years, and the gap with its economically powerful neighbor, the United States, is widening.
This abstract economic weakness manifests itself in very concrete crises that shape people's everyday lives. First and foremost, an escalating housing and rent crisis is shattering the dream of homeownership for many and driving up the cost of living. Added to this is rising unemployment, fueled by weak investment, and an escalating trade conflict with the US, which is hitting the export-dependent economy hard. The picture is rounded out by strained public finances, a healthcare system stretched to its limits, and the increasingly noticeable economic consequences of climate change.
But the government in Ottawa isn't sitting idly by. The country is attempting to turn things around with a multifaceted strategy. Interest rate cuts by the central bank are intended to support the economy, while an unprecedented housing construction program with billions in investments and new technologies like modular construction aims to close the supply gap. At the same time, further adjustments to industrial and migration policies, as well as national climate plans, are being put in place to pave the way for a more sustainable future.
However, the road out of the crisis is rocky, and the outcome uncertain. Without a genuine productivity boost, a massive and rapid expansion of housing construction, and a stabilization of vital trade relations, Canada risks further losing economic strength and per capita prosperity. The following dossier examines Canada's biggest problems in detail and analyzes the opportunities and risks of the countermeasures taken.
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Canada's biggest current problems – and how the country is trying to get them under control: A question and answer dossier
The core problems facing Canada's economy revolve around weak productivity growth and declining per capita income, a persistent housing and rental affordability crisis, elevated unemployment and weak investment activity, the strains of the US trade conflict that escalated in 2025, strained public finances, structural bottlenecks in the healthcare system, and growing climate risks. Ottawa is responding with interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, a comprehensive housing construction and modernization program, industrial and innovation policy incentives, fiscal countermeasures including reprioritization, course adjustments in labor market and migration policy, and national adaptation and climate plans. However, the path remains rocky: Without a credible productivity boost, sustainable housing scale-up, and reliable trade relations, Canada risks continuing to grow below trend and falling behind in per capita terms.
What is Canada's overarching economic problem?
The overarching problem is a long-term weakness in per capita growth, closely linked to a pronounced productivity crisis and weak private investment. For years, Canada's per capita output has lagged behind other industrialized countries; the productivity gap with the US is large and has, if anything, widened since the pandemic. RBC, OECD, and other analyses describe declining real per capita GDP compared to 2019, stagnating business investment, and structural obstacles in competition, technology adoption, and internal trade barriers.
RBC emphasizes that the economy is smaller per capita today than it was in 2019 (taking inflation and immigration into account), while the productivity gap compared to the US is approximately 30%; this corresponds to approximately CAD 20,000 in output per person and pushes wages down by about 8% relative to US levels. The OECD predicts weak growth (1.0–1.1%) for 2025, burdened by US trade tensions, declining exports and investment, with already weak productivity, high household debt, and a tight housing market. TD and others show that productivity declines have spread across many sectors since 2019; construction is particularly weak, and as a growing share of the economy, it is further dragging down the aggregates.
In short, Canada's "growth gap" is not just cyclical, but structural – a combination of weak productivity, low investment appetite, and structural barriers limit per capita growth.
How will the 2025 US trade conflict and tariffs affect Canada's economy?
The escalation of US tariffs in early 2025, followed by Canadian countermeasures and later partial USMCA exemptions, has had a significant impact on Canada's export-oriented economy. Estimates from the OECD, TD, and BoC report significant declines in exports, investment reluctance, job losses in export-dependent sectors, and increased uncertainty, which are affecting the forecasts for 2025–2026. TD cites "hammered" exports, a 1.6% contraction in Q2, and a slowdown in growth to around 1.2% over the course of the year. The BoC documents a strong pull-forward of exports before the tariffs were imposed, followed by a slump, rising unemployment in trade-sensitive sectors, and a slight inflationary component via import prices, despite overall headline inflation close to 2%.
Even though a large portion of bilateral trade remained protected from tariffs through USMCA compliance, steel, aluminum, and targeted measures (as well as changing exemptions) led to frictions in supply chains, higher costs, and planning uncertainty. Simulation studies show that continued tariffs could reduce Canada's GDP by approximately 1–2% in subsequent years, depending on assumptions regarding the level and duration of the tariffs and the Canadian countermeasures. The Canadian government itself points to burdens for consumers and businesses and has partially adjusted or withdrawn countermeasures to dampen domestic price increases.
Conclusion: The trade conflict exacerbates cyclical weaknesses (exports, investment, employment) and interacts unfavorably with structural productivity problems.
What is the state of the labor market and consumer prices – and what is the Bank of Canada doing?
The labor market has cooled noticeably: The unemployment rate rose by 7%+ in 2025 to a four-year high; employment losses are concentrated in trade-sensitive and interest-rate-dependent sectors, while participation declined slightly. The BoC's MPR Summer 2025 shows that an export-driven increase in Q1 was followed by a decline of around 1.5% in Q2; underlying inflation was somewhat higher (around 2.5%) despite headline inflation being close to 2%, not least due to tariff stimulus.
The central bank responded with interest rate cuts (most recently to 2.5% in September 2025), citing a weaker domestic economy, slowing core inflation momentum, and the dismantling of some of Canada's counter-tariffs. At the same time, it urged caution: tariff price inflation and uncertainty limit the scope for aggressive easing. The target range of 1–3% around the midpoint of the 2% range remains the anchor; the BoC emphasizes the symmetry and flexibility of the target, as well as the monitoring of a broad set of labor market indicators.
In short, monetary policy supports the economy through moderate easing, but cannot neutralize structural constraints and trade policy risks. Interest rate cuts alleviate interest burdens and payment pressure, but do not automatically boost production potential or export demand.
Why does housing and rental affordability continue to be an acute crisis?
Despite interest rate cuts, home ownership remains out of reach for many. Since 2000, prices have risen significantly faster than income, and the price-to-income ratio is among the highest in the OECD. Experts cite the deepening financialization of housing, supply bottlenecks in the right segments/locations, high tax and fee shares in new construction, capacity bottlenecks in construction, and, more recently, a very strong population expansion as key drivers. Forecasts do not predict a quick return to sustainable affordability, even with falling mortgage rates.
Reuters reported that although five-year fixed interest rates have fallen by 150 basis points, the savings are insufficient to offset price levels and weak purchasing power; immigration and domestic demand are keeping the pressure high. Estimates suggest it will take a decade, if ever, before sustainable affordability can be achieved without massive supply expansion and cost reductions. CMHC and others warn that housing starts in 2025–2027 could decline, despite political attention. Industry associations point to cumulative tax and fee burdens, sometimes exceeding a third of new construction costs, as well as shortages of land, skilled labor, and materials.
The debate over whether this is purely a "supply problem" is nuanced: Several analyses indicate that, in the long run, supply was relatively reactive, but the more recent escalation has been exacerbated by waves of excessive demand, investor participation, and financialization. Nevertheless, the current situation is that in order to dampen prices and relieve pressure on rental markets, the completion of affordable and suitable units must increase significantly, accompanied by legal, institutional, and tax reforms.
What answers does Canadian housing and infrastructure policy provide?
Ottawa has massively expanded its program for 2024/25: "Canada's Housing Plan" focuses on construction, faster permitting, cost reduction, greater standardization (design catalogs), scaling prefabricated/modular construction methods, strengthening rental and ownership pathways, and targeted housing to combat homelessness. The NHS (National Housing Strategy), a 10-year program (CAD 115 billion), reports approximately 170,000 new units committed and hundreds of thousands of secure community housing units by mid-2025. At the same time, women, students, seniors, and Indigenous communities are specifically addressed.
New technology- and scale-oriented instruments include a Homebuilding Technology and Innovation Fund, CAD 500 million for modular rental projects, a national Housing Design Catalogue, and the establishment of "Build Canada Homes" (BCH) with CAD 25 billion in loans and CAD 1 billion in equity to support prefabricated production, bundle bulk orders, promote mass timber and domestic materials, and create training opportunities. Promised effects: up to 50% reduction in construction time, 20% cost reduction, and 22% emission reduction compared to traditional construction.
At the same time, a human rights-based approach is gaining momentum: NHS legislation requires the gradual implementation of the right to adequate housing; current recommendations call for clear definitions, target systems, scaling of non-market housing, combating discrimination in the rental market, and stronger accountability mechanisms by the end of the NHS period.
The speed of implementation remains a challenge: Even ambitious programs encounter capacity bottlenecks in construction, fragmented building regulations, and interlocking federal responsibilities. Without additional harmonization, rapid permitting reforms, skilled labor strategies, and reliable, long-term order volumes, the production curve is likely to rise only slowly.
How big is the productivity problem exactly – and what are the levers?
The weakness is measurable in declining labor productivity in many sectors since 2019, exacerbated in construction and parts of the manufacturing sector. Studies quantify that Canada's business productivity has fallen over five years, while the US has increased significantly. Capital intensity has barely increased; machinery and equipment investment has lagged. Causes range from low competitive intensity, regulatory and tax barriers to investment, interprovincial trade barriers, and slow technology adoption to labor force allocation and management practices.
Political and economic guidelines that are being discussed or have already been addressed include:
- Competition reforms and the removal of internal trade and mobility barriers between provinces/territories.
- Modernize tax and depreciation regimes to benefit investments; warnings were issued, for example, against the phasing out of accelerated depreciation.
- Targeted promotion of innovation diffusion and technology adoption, particularly in the construction industry (standardization, prefabrication, digitalization).
- Highly qualified immigration, education and training initiatives, better recognition of foreign qualifications, and a stronger focus on productivity in labor market incentives.
- Accelerate infrastructure and permitting to leverage economies of scale – from housing to energy and raw materials.
In short, what is needed is a “productivity agenda” that closely links competition, capital formation, technology and skills – a recurring theme in speeches by BoC leaders and OECD surveys.
What fiscal challenges are emerging?
While Canada has often been considered fiscally sound compared to the G7, warnings about growing deficits, higher debt service burdens, and a lack of fiscal anchors are mounting in 2025. The Parliamentary Budget Officer sees significant deviations from the 2024 budget paths; higher program spending, tax measures, and weaker growth are causing projections for the coming years to drift significantly upward. Estimates indicate that interest payments could tie up a significantly higher share of revenues through 2030. External observers (e.g., Fitch) point to risks from additional spending commitments.
The scope for action remains, but is narrower: An extended period of low key interest rates is not guaranteed; an aging population and healthcare expenditures are already placing a heavy burden on provincial budgets. While investments in housing, adaptation, and innovation are simultaneously necessary, prioritizing and enforcing fiscal guidelines is crucial to avoid a loss of confidence. The latest monthly fiscal reports show that expenditure blocks and interest costs are growing, while some tax revenues are temporarily weakening; customs and energy taxes have recently provided counter-stimulus, but reflect the exceptional situation.
What about the energy and raw materials sectors – opportunity or risk?
Canada has significant oil, gas, and commodity capacities. These sectors contribute substantially to GDP, exports, fiscal revenues, and employment, and act as a buffer for the trade balance. An increase in investment in the upstream sector is also expected in 2025. At the same time, the public debate is recalibrating these sectors based on emissions, infrastructure bottlenecks, and value chains—particularly with regard to LNG, critical minerals, and domestic processing.
For the economy as a whole, resources mean:
- Stabilizers for foreign trade and currency (oil price correlation).
- Sources of revenue for state budgets.
- Potential for industrial diversification (e.g. critical minerals, battery value creation, CCUS, mass timber in construction).
- At the same time, political-economic tensions arise (federal/provincial responsibilities, environmental and climate goals, approval periods, export infrastructure).
The net message: Resources are an integral part of the medium-term strategy, provided that planning and approval processes are modernized, climate targets are credibly embedded, and value chains are strengthened locally.
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Rethinking migration: From quantity to quality lever for economic growth
What role does housing play in productivity, prices and social stability?
Housing construction has two levers: short-term cyclical (construction activity, employment), and long-term structural (labor mobility, productivity, real wages). Excessive housing costs reduce spatial mobility, inhibit household formation, and strain real wages. Studies show that rising housing costs can cost billions in productivity if workers cannot live in more productive centers. Canada's bottlenecks in capacity, permitting, and cost calculations are blocking precisely this lever.
The government is committed to:
- Harmonization and standardization (design catalogs, building regulations dialogue).
- Prefabrication/modularization to address productivity deficits in construction.
- Scaling non-market housing and targeted tenant protection measures (e.g. against discrimination).
- Qualification initiatives for the construction industry (apprenticeships, retraining, immigration with a skills focus).
Success criteria will be: stable demand via bundled orders (BCH), streamlined approval processes, risk-sharing with private actors, broad adoption of digital planning and manufacturing standards, and lasting pipeline effects across municipal boundaries.
What is happening with immigration – and what is its macroeconomic impact?
High levels of immigration supported macroeconomic indicators until 2024/25, but increased pressure on housing, healthcare, and infrastructure. Ottawa recently recalibrated its targets, particularly for temporary residence categories (students, temporary workers), in order to dampen the growth rate. Analysts warn that too abrupt a slowdown could have negative side effects for labor markets, higher education finances, and industries that rely heavily on temporary workers. Policymakers are therefore seeking a path that increases integration and absorption capacities without unduly weakening the supply side of the labor market.
On the productivity side, it is crucial to improve the quality of the skills match, accelerate recognition processes, and promote greater distribution to areas where shortages are greatest (e.g., construction, nursing, medical care, engineering). This can transform immigration from a "quantity lever" to a "quality and productivity lever."
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- Realignment on the topic of a shortage of skilled workers - the ethical dilemma in the shortage of skilled workers (Brain drain): Who pays the price?
How great is the pressure on the healthcare system – and what are the countermeasures?
Canada's per capita physician numbers are below OECD levels; primary care is suffering. Health ministries and professional associations report a deficit of 22,000–23,000 primary care physicians; new additions each year are insufficient to cover the shortage. This situation exacerbates supply bottlenecks, waiting times, and regional disparities (rural vs. urban), especially as the aging population increases demand.
Countermeasures include:
- Expansion of study and residency places in general medicine.
- Reform of remuneration and practice structures and reduction of bureaucracy to increase attractiveness and capacity.
- Recognition and integration of internationally trained physicians (if quality standards are met), possibly with regional placement incentives.
- Use of team-based care, telemedicine and delegation to nurses to leverage limited physician time.
The health shortage is not only socially relevant, but also economically: Lack of care reduces labor supply (illness, care), dampens productivity and increases government spending – and has both cyclical and structural effects.
How does Canada address climate and adaptation risks economically?
Climate risks – wildfires, floods, drought – affect infrastructure, insurability, productive capacities (e.g., forestry, agriculture, energy), health costs, and housing. Canada finalized its first National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) in 2023, accompanied by a multi-year federal government action plan with targets, indicators, and funding instruments (including DMAF, local adaptation initiatives, wildfire-resilient futures, modern flood maps, and measures to promote the resilience of Indigenous communities). The OECD recommends accelerated investments, relief for municipalities/provinces with low application requirements, and the use of standards (construction, land use) with a view to future climate risks. PPP approaches can de-risk private sector enterprises; in some cases, public provision of public goods is essential.
In parallel, emissions reduction policies (NDC, net-zero legislation, carbon pricing with recent amendments) are being implemented. In 2025, there were adjustments to the Consumer Fuel Charge; industry-based schemes (OBPS) remain in place as an incentive to reduce emissions. Climate policy and adaptation policy must be consistent to increase investment certainty and limit path costs.
How do major banks, think tanks and statistical authorities assess the situation in 2025?
- RBC, TD, and S&P see below-trend growth, rising unemployment, tariff burdens, and structural productivity weaknesses. Provincially, Ontario/Québec is particularly exposed in manufacturing and trade, while resource provinces have fiscal buffers but remain cyclically volatile.
- The OECD expects weak growth in 2025-2026 and calls for structural productivity paths (investment, innovation, internal trade barriers) and cautious monetary policy paths.
- Statistics Canada and trade data show employment and export declines in 2025, with consumption resilience initially followed by a slowdown. Unemployment is in the 7% range, with above-average youth unemployment.
- The BoC documents the tariff dilemma: growth slump in Q2, core inflation temporarily higher, cautious interest rate cuts in response to weakness and diminishing countermeasures.
Where are the greatest immediate risks?
- Continuing or renewed tariff escalation, which further burdens the export and investment climate.
- Persistent productivity weakness with investment reluctance – longer-term real wage and service risks.
- The housing sector is stagnating because financing, capacity, tax burdens, and approval processes prevent rapid scaling—with negative feedback loops on mobility, productivity, and social cohesion.
- Fiscal spending orientation without fiscal anchors – rising interest expenditures tie up room for maneuver, provinces under pressure from demographics/healthcare.
- Health system bottlenecks exacerbate labor shortages and social costs, reducing location attractiveness.
And the greatest medium- to long-term opportunities?
- Housing construction as a productivity and social lever: Standardization, industrialization (modular), coordinated mass procurement (BCH), harmonized building regulations, and targeted skilled labor strategies can break cost and time curves.
- Productivity agenda: competition, tax and depreciation reform, technology and capital offensives, reduction of internal trade barriers – especially in low-productivity sectors such as construction.
- Resource strategy: LNG, critical minerals, refining, CCUS – if planning, permitting, and export infrastructure are modernized and climate targets are credibly integrated.
- Climate adaptation as an insurance premium for growth: resilient infrastructure reduces economic losses and increases the attractiveness of capital and labor.
- Smart migration and skills: Higher-skilled immigration, accelerated recognition, matching in shortage sectors – from the volume effect to the productivity effect.
What concrete measures has Canada recently taken to counteract this?
- Monetary policy: Interest rate cuts to 2.5%, cautious outlook; BoC emphasizes 2% target, flexible symmetry, comprehensive labor market monitoring.
- Housing: Canada's Housing Plan, NHS implementation, technology funds, modular rental housing, design catalogue, Build Canada Homes (25 billion loans/1 billion equity), anti-discrimination and rights approach.
- Trade: Calibration and partial dismantling of counter-tariffs to curb inflation; diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation; and protective measures for affected sectors and regions.
- Productivity/Innovation: Investment credits for green sectors (in the context of the IRA response), appeals and programs to strengthen competitiveness, technology adoption, and internal market integration (OECD recommendations).
- Fiscal policy: Shifts toward housing and social programs, but under growing pressure to define fiscal anchors and expenditure discipline; monitoring via the "Fiscal Monitor."
- Climate/Adaptation: National Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan with multi-billion dollar funds (DMAF), local initiatives, flood mapping, wildfire programs; regular evaluation and bilateral plans.
How do the regional impacts differ?
Ontario and Québec bear a large share of the trade shocks due to their industrial and export ties with the US; labor market pressures are also more noticeable there. RBC outlines production disruptions in the auto industry, rising mortgage and loan delinquency during weaker labor market phases, and falling real estate sales despite interest rate declines. In Manitoba, climate risks (fires, drought) also impact agriculture and utilities. Resource provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador) have higher productivity levels but cyclical commodity exposure. Atlantic and territorial regions are sometimes more severely affected by skilled labor and healthcare shortages.
Are there signs of easing in some areas?
Inflation in 2025 was close to or below 2% in some areas, which gave monetary policy leeway. Some consumption aggregates performed better than expected at the beginning of the year; they subsequently cooled. Individual indicators point to room for recovery if the trade dispute deescalates. Nevertheless, broad growth remains below trend and weak per capita; unemployment remains near 7%, and productivity has shown no sign of a turnaround. Housing costs continue to depress – a rapid return to "normal" affordability is unlikely unless completion rates rise dramatically.
What priorities are necessary for the countermeasures to be effective?
- Reliable framework conditions for foreign trade to stabilize export, investment, and employment relationships. Even a partial de-escalation reduces uncertainty and supports capex.
- A coherent productivity agenda—tax and depreciation reform, intensified competition, the removal of internal barriers, and technology and digital initiatives focused on low-productivity sectors like construction—is needed. Without more capital per capita, better incentives, and the diffusion of new methods, the gap will remain.
- Scaling up residential construction as an industrial project – standardization, prefabrication, bulk ordering (BCH), harmonization of codes, faster procedures, skilled labor growth, and tax/fee reforms to meet target costs and utilize production chains.
- Fiscal reprioritization and anchors – prioritize what increases productivity and social resilience (housing, adaptation, skills) while keeping consumption expenditure growth rates controlled and interest burdens sustainable.
- Expanding health system capacity – training pathways, recognition practices, team-based care, and reducing administrative burdens; primary care, in particular, is a pivotal factor for employability and social cohesion.
- Climate-resilient infrastructure – from wildfire management and flood protection to building and land-use standards. Adaptation reduces economic shocks and improves location attractiveness.
What role does industrial policy play – for example in green sectors?
Investment Tax Credits (ITCs) for clean technologies, hydrogen, CCUS, critical minerals, and manufacturing are designed to close the investment gap and build value chains—not least in response to the US Inflation Reduction Act. The OECD sees potential in this, but cautions against quality of implementation, precision, and fiscal sustainability. Key factors are accelerated approval, grid infrastructure, skilled labor, and market demand. A more productivity-oriented industrial policy should also promote diffusion, not just flagship projects.
What can provinces and municipalities do to strengthen federal initiatives?
- Harmonize building regulations and planning rules, make density allowances, conversions, and standard plans widely available; reduce barriers to the internal market.
- Test digital approvals (one-stop), binding deadlines and “silence is consent” elements.
- Review construction levies and link them to efficiency and social goals; make fee structures more transparent and performance-based.
- Coordinate order bundling with BCH/CMHC to ensure predictable utilization of prefabricators.
- Expand regional health and education capacities to ensure productive integration of immigrants.
- Mandatory inclusion of local climate risk maps in urban development planning and standards.
How realistic is a noticeable turnaround by 2027?
A true turnaround requires parallel progress in trade/insecurity, housing production, productivity reforms, fiscal prioritization, and healthcare capacity. The BoC outlines a gradual recovery until 2027 (growth up to ~1.8% possible) in a de-escalation scenario, while an escalation scenario signals recession and temporarily higher inflation. Without a productivity boost, however, per capita growth will remain flat – even with trade policy easing.
The greatest leverage lies in:
- rapid scaling of productive housing construction processes (modular, standardization),
- consistent removal of barriers to growth and investment,
- clear fiscal anchor that protects future investment areas,
- trade policy planning,
- and a health offensive that retains and activates the workforce.
Brief outlook: What would be “early signals” that Canada is on track?
- Strong, sustained increase in approved and launched projects in standardized/modular categories, decreasing construction times, and measurable cost reductions compared to traditional methods.
- Rebound in non-residential investment, particularly in machinery/equipment and productivity-enhancing tangible goods; rising capital intensity per employee.
- Improving productivity indicators in construction and selected services; closing gaps compared to US benchmarks.
- De-escalation trends in trade (reduction in tariff dispersion, reliable exemptions, predictability in USMCA compliance).
- Stable fiscal guidelines prioritizing housing, adaptation, innovation, and skills, while controlling the interest burden.
- Increased flow in medical training/residencies, faster recognition of international qualifications, support teams in primary care.
What are the biggest problems – and how is Canada addressing them?
The biggest challenges are structurally weak productivity with falling per capita wealth, a persistent housing affordability crisis, a struggling labor market with rising unemployment, the economic and planning-related setback caused by the US trade conflict, fiscal tensions, and bottlenecks in health and climate adaptation. Canada is addressing these challenges with a multi-pronged strategy: cautious monetary easing, a broad-based housing program with a technology and standardization push (including Build Canada Homes), investment and innovation incentives, migration and skills fine-tuning, a national adaptation strategy, and efforts to mitigate trade policy risks. Success depends on materially accelerating productivity and housing construction and concentrating fiscal resources on these future levers. If this succeeds, Canada can – despite external headwinds – return to a path of more robust, inclusive growth.
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