Europe's defense on the crossroads: the dispute over the armaments fund Safe and the future of the Security Union

 

Von der Leyen versus Parliament: How the SAFE conflict is dividing EU institutions

 

Strategic autonomy under stress: A legal conflict as a symptom of a strategic shift

 

The legal and political conflict over the financing of the new European arms program, "Security Action for Europe" (SAFE), is far more than a procedural dispute. It is a magnifying glass through which the profound transformations, tensions, and ambitions of the European Union in a new era of geopolitical confrontation are revealed. The European Parliament's lawsuit against the Council of the EU, which represents the interests of the member states, and the European Commission, led by President Ursula von der Leyen, marks a critical juncture in the Union's development. It raises fundamental questions that touch upon the nature and future of the European project: How is power distributed among EU institutions, particularly in times of crisis? How far does democratic control extend over decisions of existential importance, such as war, peace, and armament? And how does the EU shape its role as an independent security actor in a world marked by Russian aggression and uncertainty about the stability of the transatlantic alliance?

 

This report will take the conflict surrounding the SAFE program as a starting point to develop a comprehensive analysis of European defense policy as a whole. Part I dissects the legal core of the dispute over the correct application of the EU Treaty and situates it within the broader, decades-long debate on the EU's so-called democratic deficit. It demonstrates how established procedural patterns systematically challenge institutional balances during crises. Part II traces the development of the new European arms landscape, which has been taking shape with unprecedented speed since Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. This includes a detailed examination of the new financing mechanisms, the underlying strategic doctrines such as "strategic autonomy," and the complex, often contradictory relationship with NATO. Part III illuminates the realities at the member state level, whose often divergent national interests and strategic cultures hinder coherent action, as well as the profound economic consequences of the agreed-upon rearmament, which oscillate between being an engine of growth and a debt trap. Finally, Part IV ventures a look at the contours of a future European Defence Union, analyzes ambitious plans such as the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), and identifies the key challenges that must be overcome along the way. The dispute over SAFE is thus not the disease itself, but a crucial symptom, the analysis of which provides profound insight into the state and direction of development of the European security and defence project.

 

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