Europe's defense on the crossroads: the dispute over the armaments fund Safe and the future of the Security Union

 

From the Leyen against Parliament: How the Safe conflict splits the EU institutions

 

Strategic autonomy in the stress test: a legal conflict as a symptom of a strategic turn

 

The legal and political conflict with the financing of the new European armaments program "Security campaign for Europe" (Safe) is much more than a procedural dispute. It is a burning glass under which the profound transformations, tensions and ambitions of the European Union become visible in a new era of geopolitical confrontation. The complaint of the European Parliament against the Council of the EU, which represents the interests of the Member States, and the European Commission led by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen marks a critical point in the development of the Union. It raises fundamental questions that affect the nature and future of the European project: How is the power between the EU institutions distributed, especially in times of crisis? How far does democratic control over decisions of existential importance such as war, peace and upgrade? And how does the EU shape its role as an independent security player in a world that is characterized by Russian aggression and uncertainty about the persistence of the transatlantic alliance?

 

This report will take the conflict over the safe program as a starting point in order to develop a comprehensive analysis of European defense policy as a whole. Part I dissolves the legal core of the dispute over the correct application of the EU contract and embeds it into the broader debate that has been led for decades about the so-called democracy deficit of the EU. It is shown how procedural patterns established in crisis systematically challenge institutional balance. Part II traces the development of the new European armaments landscape, which has been formed at Ukraine since the Russian attack war at unprecedented speed. This includes a detailed view of the new financial mechanisms, the underlying strategic doctrines such as "strategic autonomy" and the complex, often contradictory relationship to NATO. Part III illuminates the realities at the level of the Member States, whose often divergent national interests and strategic cultures make it difficult for a coherent approach, as well as the profound economic consequences of the decided upgrade that oscillate between growth engine and debt trap. Part IV Finally, an outlook on the contours of a future European defense union, analyzes the ambitious plans such as the European Defense Industry Strategy (EDIS) and identifies the central challenges that must be overcome on the way there. The dispute over Safe is therefore not the disease itself, but a decisive symptom, the analysis of which gives deep insight into the state and direction of development of the European security and defense project.

 

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