Where most people live: Today and in 2100

Published on: September 6, 2020 / Updated on: September 6, 2020 – Author: Konrad Wolfenstein

Where most people live: Today and in 2100 @shutterstock | Photobank.kiev.ua

A recent forecast predicts a significant shift in the ranking of the world's 10 most populous countries by 2100. This is illustrated in a Statista graphic based on data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). According to the forecast, China will lose half its population during this period, and five African countries will be on the list. Currently, only Nigeria holds the top spot. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region in the world projected to continue growing until the end of the century. Research indicates that the population decline in these rapidly shrinking countries has various causes. Some countries, such as those in Southeast Europe, experience high levels of emigration to the more affluent and higher-wage EU countries of Central and Western Europe. Many workers, particularly those in the care sector and skilled trades, are leaving their home countries. In other countries, such as China, the birth rate is declining significantly. Researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) – in contrast to the UN Population Division – assume that the world population in 2100 will be lower than in 2017. The UN forecast, based on a medium assumed population growth rate, projects a total world population of 10.9 billion people (Excel download, data sheet "Medium Variant"). IHME researchers, in their baseline scenario, project a population of 8.8 billion.

The IHME is a research institute at the University of Washington in Seattle that focuses on global health and demographic trends. For their forecast, the researchers considered a range of demographic factors, such as increasing life expectancy, migration and fertility rates, and access to contraception.

According to a current forecast, the order of the list of the 10 most populous countries in the world will change significantly by the year 2100. This is shown in the Statista graph based on data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). According to the graph, China will lose half of its population during this period and there will be five African countries on the list. Currently, only Nigeria is in the top list. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region in the world that will continue to grow by the end of the century. According to research, there are various reasons for the population decline in these rapidly shrinking states. On the one hand, there are states with high emigration, such as the Southeast European states, towards the financially stronger and more wage-intensive EU countries of Central and Western Europe. Many workers leave their home countries, especially in the care and craft trades sectors. In other countries, the birth rate is shrinking significantly, for example in China. In contrast to the UN Population Division, researchers at IHME assume that the world population will be smaller in 2100 than in 2017. The UN forecast, assuming a medium assumed population growth rate, predicts a total world population of 10.9 billion people in 2100 (Excel download, data sheet “Medium Variant”). Researchers at IHME expect 8.8 billion people in the base scenario.

IHME is a research institute working in the field of global health and demographic development at the University of Washington in Seattle. For their forecast, the researchers have taken a number of demographic factors into account, such as rising life expectancy, migration and fertility rates, and access to contraception.

You can find more infographics at Statista.