Where most people live: Today and 2100

Published on: September 6th, 2020 / Update from: September 6th, 2020 - Author: Konrad Wolfenstein

According to a current forecast, the order of the list of the 10 most populous countries in the world will change significantly by the year 2100. This is shown by the Statista graphic based on data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) . According to this, China will lose half of its population during this period and there will be five African countries in the list. Currently only Nigeria is in the top list. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region in the world that will continue to grow until the end of the century. According to research, the population decline in rapidly shrinking countries has various reasons. Accordingly, on the one hand, there are states with high levels of migration, such as the southeastern European states, towards the more financially powerful and higher-wage EU countries in Central and Western Europe. Many workers are leaving their home country, especially in the field of nursing and skilled trades. In other countries, the birth rate is falling significantly, for example in China. Researchers at the IHME assume - in contrast to the UN Population Division - that the number of the world's population in 2100 will be lower than in 2017. The UN forecast, assuming average population growth, expects a total world population of 10.9 in 2100 Billion people (Excel download, “Medium Variant” data sheet). Researchers at IHME expect 8.8 billion people in the base scenario.

The IHME is a research institute working in the field of global health and demographic development at the University of Washington in Seattle. To make their forecast, the researchers took a number of demographic factors into account, such as increasing life expectancy, migration and fertility rates and access to contraceptives.

According to a current forecast, the order of the list of the 10 most populous countries in the world will change significantly by the year 2100. This is shown in the Statista graph based on data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) . According to the graph, China will lose half of its population during this period and there will be five African countries on the list. Currently, only Nigeria is in the top list. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region in the world that will continue to grow by the end of the century. According to research, there are various reasons for the population decline in these rapidly shrinking states. On the one hand, there are states with high emigration, such as the Southeast European states, towards the financially stronger and more wage-intensive EU countries of Central and Western Europe. Many workers leave their home countries, especially in the care and craft trades sectors. In other countries, the birth rate is shrinking significantly, for example in China. In contrast to the UN Population Division, researchers at IHME assume that the world population will be smaller in 2100 than in 2017. The UN forecast, assuming a medium assumed population growth rate, predicts a total world population of 10.9 billion people in 2100 (Excel download, data sheet “Medium Variant”). Researchers at IHME expect 8.8 billion people in the base scenario.

IHME is a research institute working in the field of global health and demographic development at the University of Washington in Seattle. For their forecast, the researchers have taken a number of demographic factors into account, such as rising life expectancy, migration and fertility rates, and access to contraception.

You can find more infographics at Statista