Published on: January 9, 2025 / Update from: January 9, 2025 - Author: Konrad Wolfenstein
Expected economic development for 2025 according to GDP in the various countries – Image: Xpert.Digital
Expected economic development for 2025 according to GDP in different countries
The forecasts for individual countries sometimes differ considerably. Nevertheless, there is an overall trend towards economic recovery in 2025, the extent of which will be significantly influenced by various factors and the successful implementation of economic policy measures.
India
- Expected GDP growth in 2025: 8.2%
- Challenges: poverty, inequality, infrastructure deficits
- Positive factors: young population growth, digital economy
China
- Expected GDP growth in 2025: 5.2%
- Challenges: Weak real estate sector, high debt, demographic change
- Focus on developing “new high-quality productive forces”
USA
- Expected GDP growth in 2025: 2.2%
- Challenges: inflation, geopolitical tensions
- Positive factors: high productivity, planned government investments
Japan
- Expected GDP growth in 2025: 1.92%
- Challenges: Aging population, high national debt, stagnating wages
- Planned record budget with a focus on defense and the regional economy
South Korea
- Expected GDP growth in 2025: 1.36%
- Challenges: High household debt, demographic decline, export dependence
- Current political crisis could affect economic development
EU
- Expected GDP growth in 2025: 1.3%
- Challenges: Geopolitical uncertainties, weak external demand
- Planned investments in key areas such as health and climate protection
Singapore
- Expected GDP growth in 2025: 1.1%
- Challenges: High inflation, weak global demand
- Planned joint special economic zone with Malaysia to promote economic development
Germany
- Expected GDP growth in 2025: 0.4%
- Challenges: Ongoing recession, weakening industrial production, shortage of skilled workers, high energy costs
- Positive factors: Strong export economy, focus on renewable energies and digitalization
Pakistan
- Expected GDP growth in 2025: -0.2%
- Challenges: High inflation (29.2%), political instability, balance of payments problems
- Focus on addressing economic and structural problems
The economic growth development of Germany: 1960-2023
The growth rates of the German gross domestic product (GDP) from 1960 to 2024 cover an extensive time interval. Here is an overview of annual GDP growth rates (real), based on available historical data.
Growth rates of real GDP in Germany (1960–2024)
1960s
- 1960: +8,1 %
- 1961: +4,4 %
- 1962: +4,5 %
- 1963: +2,6 %
- 1964: +5,7
- 1965: +4,8 %
- 1966: +4,0 %
- 1967: -0.2% (recession)
- 1968: +4,4 %
- 1969: +8,0 %
1970s
- 1970: +5,0 %
- 1971: +3,1 %
- 1972: +4,1 %
- 1973: +5,3 %
- 1974: -0.9% (oil crisis)
- 1975: -1.2% (recession)
- 1976: +5,6 %
- 1977: +3,4 %
- 1978: +3,2 %
- 1979: +4,0 %
1980s
- 1980: +1,2 %
- 1981: -0,3 %
- 1982: -0,8 %
- 1983: +1,3 %
- 1984: +2,6 %
- 1985: +2,3 %
- 1986: +2,1 %
- 1987: +1,3 %
- 1988: +3,4 %
- 1989: +3,8 %
1990s: (reunification and aftermath)
- 1990: +5,7 %
- 1991: +5,1 %
- 1992: +2,2 %
- 1993: -1,0 %
- 1994: +2,3 %
- 1995: +1,9 %
- 1996: +0,7 %
- 1997: +1,5 %
- 1998: +2,1 %
- 1999: +2,0 %
2000s
- 2000: +3,1 %
- 2001: +1,5 %
- 2002: +0,0 %
- 2003: -0,7 %
- 2004: +1,1 %
- 2005: +0,7 %
- 2006: +3,9 %
- 2007: +3,4 %
- 2008: +1,1 %
- 2009: -5.7% (financial crisis)
2010s
- 2010: +4.2% (recovery from financial crisis)
- 2011: +3,7 %
- 2012: +0,4 %
- 2013: +0,4 %
- 2014: +2,2 %
- 2015: +1,7 %
- 2016: +2,2 %
- 2017: +2,6 %
- 2018: +1,3 %
- 2019: +0,6 %
2020s: (COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions)
- 2020: -4.6% (pandemic)
- 2021: +2.7% (partial recovery)
- 2022: +1,9 %
- 2023: +0,3 %
- 2024: -0,2 %
- There are different forecasts for 2024:
- The federal government forecasts a decline of -0.2%.
- The Bundesbank expects growth of 0.3% (June).
- HWWI: Hamburg Institute of International Economics (September): 0.2%
- RWI: Rhenish-Westphalian Institute for Economic Research (September): 0.1%
- IWH: Institute for Economic Research Halle (September): 0%
- IMK: Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (September): 0%
- DIW: German Institute for Economic Research (September): 0%
- IfW: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (September): -0.1%
- HRI: Handelsblatt Research Institute (September): -0.3%
- IMF: International Monetary Fund (July): 0.2%
- ifo: Institute for Economic Research University of Munich (June): 0.4%
- Economic Advisory Council (May): 0.2%
- The ifo Institute recently forecast stagnation (0.0% growth). The forecasts for 2024 were revised downwards several times during the year. Economic development is slowed by various factors, including:
- High inflation and energy prices
- Weak foreign demand
- Hesitant private consumption
- Higher financing costs for investments
- Despite the different forecasts, there are indications that the German economy will experience very low growth at best in 2024 and may even remain in a technical recession.
Recession – Technical Recession
A technical recession refers to an economic situation in which a country's gross domestic product (GDP) declines in two consecutive quarters compared to the previous quarter. This is the most common and simplest definition of a recession, although some economists argue that additional factors such as production utilization, demand or the state of the labor market should be taken into account.
In most countries, the economic quarters are broken down as follows:
- Quarter (Q1): January 1st to March 31st
- Quarter (Q2): April 1st to June 30th
- Quarter (Q3): July 1st to September 30th
- Quarter (Q4): October 1st to December 31st
This classification is used for standardized analysis and reporting of economic data, such as: B. the gross domestic product (GDP).
Germany has been in a technical recession since the winter half of 2023/24. Specifically:
- In the fourth quarter of 2023, economic output shrank by -0.3%.
- In the first quarter of 2024, GDP fell by another -0.1%.
These two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth meet the definition of a technical recession.
It is important to note that this situation is different than expected. Many experts had originally hoped that the German economy would recover in 2024. Instead, the economic weakness continued. The reasons for this are varied and include, among other things, the sluggish global economy, consumer restraint due to high inflation rates, increased interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties.
Despite this technical recession, the situation is “not as dramatic” as a “full-blown recession.” The impact has been relatively mild so far, and there is hope (currently different forecasts, see above) for a gradual recovery in the second half of 2024. Nevertheless, the economic situation in Germany remains challenging, and economic growth is expected to continue across the country The year 2024 will be very low.
Suitable for: