The Price of Trust: How Jensen Huang's Affairs Turn Nvidia into a Lesson in Stock Market Psychology

How the loss of trust is costing the chip giant billions: Nvidia loses a trillion dollars in market capitalization – even though not a single chip has failed

When the founder becomes a risk: The stock market doubts Nvidia

Nvidia supplies the chips for the global AI boom – and yet, within just a few trading days, the company is plunged into a severe crisis. A scandal, espionage allegations, and questions about corporate governance have unsettled investors. The share price plummeted, and the company's market capitalization temporarily shrank by almost a trillion dollars. Initially, however, nothing had changed regarding Nvidia's products or the demand for AI computing power. So what is driving the stock market crash? At the center of it all is Jensen Huang: the founder and long-time CEO, whose person is inextricably linked to the company's success. The case demonstrates how quickly private allegations can escalate into a risk to corporate governance, national security, and the confidence of the capital markets – and why, in such moments, investors react not only to the numbers but also to unanswered questions.

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When trust becomes the hardest metric

Economics has long seen itself as a discipline of numbers. Supply and demand, margins and cost of capital, discounted cash flows and needs analyses form the framework with which analysts determine the value of a company. In this worldview, a share is the sum of all future profits, discounted to the present day. What this model fails to capture becomes clear in moments like this: The value of a company depends not only on what it produces, but also on whether people trust what they believe they know about its future.

Nvidia is perhaps the best current example of how quickly this trust can evaporate. The company supplies the computing chips on which a large portion of the world's artificial intelligence is trained and operated. Its data center products have been sold out for years, its margins are exceptional for a hardware manufacturer, and its CUDA software platform forms a moat that competitors have so far been unable to overcome despite billions in investment. None of this changed in the second week of November 2026. No factory shutdowns, no major customer cancellations, and no new product failures. Nevertheless, within just a few trading days, the company lost a market value greater than the combined market capitalization of most DAX-listed companies.

The reason lies not in the balance sheet, but in the psychology of the market. It lies in the question of whether the man who has led Nvidia since its founding in 1993 can and should continue to lead the company. And it lies in a cascade of revelations that has transformed a private transgression into a matter of national security, corporate governance, and geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China.

Anyone who wants to understand why markets react so violently must therefore consider both: the hard facts of the affair and the soft, but economically highly effective mechanisms of expectation, uncertainty and trust.

Six trading days, one trillion dollars less

The chronology of events can be traced quite precisely. As early as October 2025, reports surfaced of Jensen Huang appearing in Taiwan alongside the Chinese businesswoman Alice Huang. Despite sharing the same surname, the two are not related; Huang is a common Chinese family name. Alice Huang was at one time an executive at Megaspeed International, a Singapore-based data center company that was among the purchasers of Nvidia technology. At the end of October 2026, a report emerged stating that US intelligence agencies had concluded Alice Huang had passed information to the Chinese Ministry of State Security. Beijing dismissed this claim as baseless.

On Sunday, November 8, the tide turned. Jensen Huang admitted in an email to employees that he had been unfaithful to his wife, Lori, after initially denying such rumors. He wrote that his behavior had hurt his wife and children, that there was no excuse for it, and that he was deeply sorry. At the same time, the board of directors announced an independent investigation into whether Huang had been the target of a foreign intelligence operation. The board emphasized that it had no reason to believe that national security or company secrets had been compromised and explicitly expressed its confidence in Huang and his leadership team. Huang himself stated in an open letter that he fully supported the investigation, loved his country and his company, and was determined to protect Nvidia and support the national security of the United States.

The market only partially believed these reassurances. On Monday, November 9, the stock lost almost nine percent shortly after trading began in New York, temporarily falling to around $170. At the close of trading, it was down 4.3 percent at just under $179, representing a loss of approximately $190 billion in market capitalization. Remarkably, the Nasdaq technology index rose by more than two percent that day. The decline was therefore not a general market downturn, but rather a targeted reassessment of the specific risk associated with Nvidia.

The downward trend continued on Tuesday. The stock lost another 5.5 percent, closing at $168.80, its lowest level since March. Just a week earlier, it had been trading at nearly $207. This reduced its market capitalization by almost one trillion dollars to around four trillion dollars. Microsoft overtook Nvidia to become the second most valuable company in the world. On the same day, the independent members of the board of directors commissioned the New York law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz to conduct a thorough investigation. The investigation is being led by Joon H. Kim, a former acting U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York.

On Wednesday, the situation seemed to calm down briefly. The stock recovered by almost three percent to around $174 in regular trading. Then, after the market closed, the second revelation occurred, and with it, the mood finally turned.

The second affair and the breach of trust

According to multiple reports in major American newspapers, Huang allegedly had another extramarital relationship with Kimberly Powell, Nvidia's vice president of healthcare. Powell has been with the company since 2008 and has led the division since 2017. She reports directly to Huang, and both are married to other partners. The reports, citing five unnamed sources within the company, state that in March, Huang and Powell were filmed with a smartphone at a San Jose hotel, the venue for Nvidia's developer conference, GTC, while displaying affectionate behavior. Huang's security team reportedly shielded this individual and offered them a non-disclosure agreement. Neither Huang, Powell, nor the company have yet commented on these allegations.

Economically, this second revelation is more serious than the first in several respects. While the relationship with Alice Huang was sensitive due to the espionage allegations, it could initially be portrayed as a private indiscretion with external risk, in which Huang herself might have been the victim of a targeted approach. President Donald Trump supported this interpretation when he stated that the FBI was investigating the matter, but that Huang had assured him she had no knowledge of any potential espionage activity, and he did not believe Huang had anything to worry about.

The relationship with a direct report, however, touches upon the very core of corporate governance. Nvidia's code of conduct explicitly cites personal relationships as a potential source of conflicts of interest. A relationship between the CEO and a division head raises questions about promotions, budget allocations, and equal treatment. Added to this is the accusation of a cover-up attempt by the security team. And finally, the question arises whether Huang told his own board of directors the whole truth when he confessed on Sunday. When a supervisory board publicly expresses its confidence and then learns a few days later that it was not fully informed, this poses a problem for the board's own credibility.

The stock market reacted accordingly. In after-hours trading, the share price plummeted by up to ten percent, falling to around $158, its lowest level since mid-2025. On Thursday morning, it was still down by around seven percent in pre-market trading. The company was thus heading for its sixth consecutive week of losses.

Between expression of trust and replacement scenario

Within just three days, the board of directors executed a remarkable about-face. On Sunday, the board had expressed its confidence in Huang and his team, but on Wednesday evening, a crisis meeting was held, during which, according to multiple reports, the removal of the company founder was discussed. According to the company's bylaws, the CEO can be dismissed by a simple majority vote of the directors, with or without cause. Huang holds approximately 3.5 percent of the shares and has no veto power. Unlike many other technology companies with founders at the helm, such as Meta or Alphabet, Nvidia does not have multi-voting shares that would protect the founder from his own supervisory board.

No outcome of the deliberations was known as of Thursday morning, and Nvidia initially declined to comment officially. However, according to reports, the board of directors is already working with an external recruitment consultancy to identify potential successors. Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress, who has held the position for more than a decade and enjoys the confidence of the capital markets, is considered the frontrunner for an interim solution. Appointing an COO is also reportedly being considered. For a permanent solution, media reports mention other names, including long-time Nvidia manager Ian Buck, one of the originators of CUDA, and Apple's hardware chief Johny Srouji. Whether any of them would actually be willing to take on the role remains to be seen.

Investors are making a clear distinction between two questions. One is who can manage the company in the short term. Kress is considered the obvious choice here because she knows the figures, customer relationships, and capital market communications. The other, far more difficult question is who should determine the technological direction in the long term. At Nvidia, this role has so far been exclusively filled by Huang.

Huang received prominent support. Elon Musk publicly backed him and argued that the board should await the results of the investigation before making a decision. President Trump had also previously spoken out in his defense, but the White House stated that it would not interfere in the board's decision. Meanwhile, analysts and major investors privately wondered how a change at the top could practically be implemented. Some now consider a resignation or removal a realistic scenario. One market observer succinctly summarized the logic: if Huang had violated laws or company policies, the board would act as soon as evidence was presented.

The founder's paradox: When a person becomes a business model

To understand why the stock market is reacting so sensitively, one must consider Huang's unique role within the company. He is the only CEO Nvidia has ever had. Under his leadership, the share price has risen by more than 700,000 percent since its IPO. He steered the company through several near-bankruptcies, spearheaded its transformation from a graphics card manufacturer for computer games to the backbone of the AI ​​revolution, and pursued an early software strategy with CUDA, the value of which only became apparent years later. Within the industry, he is often referred to by his first name, much like Steve Jobs was in his day.

This success story, however, has a downside, known in business administration as key person risk. Around 60 executives report directly to Huang. For a corporation of this size, this is an exceptionally flat structure, heavily reliant on one individual. As a result, Huang is more deeply involved in day-to-day operations than the heads of comparable corporations; he makes technical, strategic, and commercial decisions himself and is known for personally processing thousands of messages per week. Nvidia has no chairman of the board who operates independently of Huang, no chief operating officer, and no publicly identifiable succession plan.

The result is a paradox familiar to many founder-led companies. The concentration of power and knowledge in one person is a tremendous advantage during growth phases because it enables rapid decisions, clear visions, and a high risk tolerance. In times of crisis, however, this same concentration becomes a concentration risk. If the founder is no longer available, not only is a leader missing, but also a part of the business model. Investors then have to assess not only how suitable a successor might be, but also how much of the previous formula for success depended on Huang himself.

This is a key reason why the share price reacts so strongly to news unrelated to chips. Market observers have been asking for days whether the risk inherent in the company's success being so closely tied to its founder was ever adequately priced into the stock. The answer the market is currently giving appears to be: no. What is happening now is a retrospective pricing in of a risk that was always present but was overlooked during times of euphoric growth expectations.

The four core members of the eleven-member board of directors have been associated with the company since the 1990s. This has raised questions about whether these long-time associates are independent enough to decide the fate of their founder. At the same time, it is precisely this constellation that makes dismissal an almost inconceivable step. A board member who dismisses the founder who built the company into the most valuable in the world assumes an enormous responsibility. Conversely, a board member who retains him despite increasing pressure risks personal liability if it later turns out that they ignored warning signs.

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From private life to national security

What distinguishes the Huang affair from previous scandals involving CEOs is its geopolitical dimension. Megaspeed, the company where Alice Huang worked, purchased approximately $4.8 billion worth of equipment containing Nvidia chips and technology between June 2024 and February 2026. The U.S. Department of Commerce investigated the company as early as 2025 on suspicion that it was helping to circumvent U.S. export restrictions on high-performance chips to China. At the time, Nvidia stated that its compliance team had reviewed Megaspeed and found no illegal activity. Reports indicate that Nvidia even interfered in the investigation. Another report suggests that the relationship between Jensen and Alice Huang facilitated the shipment of chips worth at least $7.5 billion through Chinese companies.

These figures are not existentially threatening in relation to Nvidia's total revenue. Their significance lies elsewhere. Export controls on advanced AI chips are among the most important instruments of American technology policy toward China. They are intended to prevent Beijing from catching up in the development of powerful AI systems, particularly in the military sector. Huang himself has repeatedly advocated in recent years for allowing the sale of newer chips to China. His reasoning was that otherwise, China would develop its own semiconductors that could compete with Nvidia on the global market and undermine American technological leadership. He traveled with President Trump and attempted to influence the design of the export regulations.

In light of the espionage allegations, this lobbying effort now appears in a different light. Even if it turns out that Huang was unaware of his partner's alleged intentions and did not divulge any secrets, the impression of a conflict of interest remains. The head of the company that would benefit most from relaxed export regulations had a personal relationship with a manager of a client suspected of circumventing these regulations, who herself was allegedly working for Chinese intelligence. This constellation is difficult for politicians and regulatory authorities to ignore, regardless of the final outcome of the investigation.

The political reactions were predictable. Three House committee chairs summoned Huang to a confidential briefing on November 18, the day after the quarterly results were released on November 17. The chairman of the China Committee demanded clarification, and Republican lawmakers spoke of serious national security concerns. Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Coons called on the administration to secure all documents related to Nvidia's chip exports and the affair. Democratic Senator Mark Warner and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries also announced their intention to pursue the matter further.

The timing is particularly significant politically. Following the midterm elections, the Democrats will assume a majority in both houses of Congress in January. This will grant them extensive powers to initiate parliamentary investigations, subpoena witnesses, and request documents. For Nvidia, this means that the affair is unlikely to be resolved with a quick personnel decision. It could remain a political issue for months, with the potential to further tighten export controls rather than loosen them.

The affair has also reached the diplomatic level. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was asked after a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Paris whether the scandal would affect talks between Washington and Beijing on regulating artificial intelligence. He replied that the Chinese system would always act in its own interest, as would the United States, and that they were entering these talks with a clear understanding of the situation. The issue is also likely to play a role in the planned meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Shenzhen.

Legal risks and the liability of the supervisory board

In addition to the political dimension, there is a legal one that is significant for the company's valuation. On Monday, a private investor in California filed a lawsuit against Nvidia and Alice Huang. He accuses both of misleading investors about the relationship with Huang and its potential national security implications. In particular, the statements regarding the review of Megaspeed were allegedly misleading because the CEO was simultaneously in a relationship with a manager at that company. The lawsuit, a class-action suit, is intended to represent all investors who purchased Nvidia shares between October 9, 2025, and November 8, 2026, and seeks unspecified damages and a jury trial. Other law firms have announced plans to pursue legal action on behalf of shareholders.

Legal experts also see several potential points of attack. In mandatory filings with the SEC and in public statements, Nvidia has emphasized its compliance with export controls and explicitly denied that any diversion of exports to Chinese companies occurred. Should these statements, or the endorsements from executives required under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, prove to be false or misleading, further securities lawsuits would be likely. In addition, there is Delaware corporate law. Under the so-called Caremark Doctrine, directors can be held personally liable if they have violated their supervisory duties or ignored warning signs in a business-critical compliance area. Export control is undoubtedly such an area for Nvidia, and the Commerce Department's investigation into Megaspeed in 2025 could be interpreted as a warning sign.

The worst-case scenario for the company would be a ban on exports by the US authorities. Such a step is considered unlikely because Nvidia is too important to the American technology strategy. However, the mere possibility increases the pressure on the board of directors to take visible and decisive action. The ongoing investigation is correspondingly broad in scope. It is likely to include forensic copies of Huang's company equipment, the analysis of calendars, travel records, and logs of the security team, the examination of access to sensitive data such as product plans, chip architectures, source code, and customer allocations, as well as interviews with everyone from the Megaspeed customer team to the export compliance officers.

This complex legal situation explains why a board of directors, which had expressed its confidence as recently as Sunday, was discussing a dismissal on Wednesday. The board is acting not only out of moral considerations but also for its own protection. Every further revelation increases the risk that the directors will later be accused of having hesitated too long.

The psychology of price movements

From an economic perspective, the Nvidia share price is a textbook example of the mechanisms that behavioral economics has described for decades. The first mechanism is the distinction between risk and uncertainty, which goes back to the economist Frank Knight. Risk can be quantified with probabilities and therefore priced in. Uncertainty, on the other hand, defies calculation. No one can currently say with any certainty what the probability is of Huang being replaced, who will succeed him, what the investigations will reveal, whether there will be further revelations, and what political consequences will be drawn in Washington. Markets do not react to such uncertainty with a precise revaluation, but rather with a general discount, which is all the greater the more unclear the situation.

The second mechanism is the cascading dynamic of information. The first revelation could still be interpreted as an isolated event. However, the second revelation changed the interpretation of the first. Investors are now no longer asking whether it was a one-off mistake, but whether a pattern exists and what further information might come to light. This shift from a single event to a potential pattern is highly effective psychologically. It explains why the stock fell more sharply in after-hours trading following the second revelation than after the first, even though the second affair, viewed in isolation, is less relevant to security.

The third mechanism concerns the credibility of institutions. The board of directors had expressed its confidence on Sunday, stating there was no cause for concern regarding secrets or security. When it emerged a few days later that further relevant information apparently existed, not only did Huang lose credibility, but so did the body that is supposed to oversee him. This is particularly problematic for investors because the board of directors is precisely the body meant to provide guidance in such a crisis.

The fourth mechanism is narrative economics, as described by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller. Stock prices are not only driven by numbers, but by stories that circulate among investors. For years, Nvidia's story was that of a visionary founder who recognized the future earlier than anyone else and created an indispensable company. This story carried part of the valuation. The new story is one of espionage, scandals, cover-ups, and leadership chaos. Even if revenues remain unchanged, the narrative shifts, and with it, investors' willingness to pay a high premium for future growth.

The fifth mechanism is amplification by the market environment. The affair is hitting a market that is already nervous. Trading in AI infrastructure stocks was already under pressure after the midterm elections, because several states passed legislation that could make it more difficult to build data centers. Rising capital market interest rates are making investments in data centers, which are often financed by loans and bonds, more expensive. Shares of Seagate, SanDisk, Micron, and Intel also declined. Furthermore, investors are preparing for the expected IPO of the AI ​​lab Anthropic, which could be valued at up to $1.4 trillion and is likely to draw capital away from other AI stocks. In such an environment, a company-specific shock acts as a catalyst, amplifying existing doubts.

At the same time, a look at Asia shows that the market clearly distinguishes between individuals and businesses. On Wednesday, Japan's Nikkei rose by 1.3 percent and South Korea's Kospi by 2.6 percent, driven by expectations of continued strong semiconductor demand. Strong figures from cloud provider CoreWeave eased concerns about a weakening need for AI infrastructure, while suppliers like Advantest and Tokyo Electron posted significant gains. The message is noteworthy: The market is not doubting the demand for AI chips, but rather the leadership of the leading supplier.

What historical comparisons teach us

CEO scandals are nothing new, but the scale of the Nvidia case is unprecedented. The most obvious comparison is the resignation of Intel CEO Brian Krzanich in 2018 after a relationship with an employee, which violated company policy, became public. Intel acted swiftly at the time; Krzanich was forced out, and the company appointed an interim CEO. The case demonstrates that boards of directors now see little leeway when it comes to violations of relationship policies. At the same time, the comparison has its limitations. Krzanich was not a founder, and Intel's success was nowhere near as dependent on him as Nvidia's was on Huang. In retrospect, it can also be argued that Intel lost strategic ground in the years that followed, illustrating how difficult it is to find the right successor at the helm of a technology company.

More revealing is a look at companies whose founders left abruptly. At Apple, the ouster of Steve Jobs in the mid-1980s led to a long period of strategic disorientation, which only ended with his return. At Uber, on the other hand, the forced resignation of Travis Kalanick after a series of scandals proved to be a stabilizing factor in the long run, because his successor professionalized the company and took it public. Both examples show that a change in founders does not automatically mean either downfall or a new beginning. The crucial factor is whether the organization possesses sufficient substance beyond its founder.

There are several arguments in Nvidia's favor in this regard. The company has a deep technical organization, long-serving leaders in its core areas, and a product pipeline planned several years in advance. The next generation of chips has been developed, and supply contracts with manufacturing partners and major customers are in place. However, the extremely flat management structure, the lack of succession planning, and the fact that many strategic relationships with customers, partners, and governments are personally managed by Huang argue against a smooth transition.

The economic perspective: Overreaction or rational reassessment?

The crucial question for investors and observers is whether the price declines represent an emotional overreaction or a rational reassessment. The honest answer is: they are both.

The fact that the company's fundamentals haven't changed in the short term suggests an overreaction. Demand for AI computing power remains strong, major cloud providers' investment plans continue, and Nvidia remains a technological leader. Anyone building an AI computing cluster today can hardly avoid the company's products, regardless of who's at the helm. A loss of roughly one trillion dollars in market capitalization within a week is difficult to justify with discounted future profits. Even a significant discount for leadership uncertainty doesn't mathematically account for the entire decline, especially since part of it is attributable to the general market environment.

Arguments against a rational reassessment include the fact that the company's risk profile has indeed changed. First, key person risk has transformed from an abstract possibility into a concrete scenario. Second, regulatory consequences are looming, particularly a tightening of export controls, which could further restrict the already challenging Chinese market. Third, legal costs will arise from lawsuits and investigations, the extent of which no one can currently quantify. Fourth, the company's political credibility in Washington could be permanently damaged, precisely at a time when Democrats are taking over Congress and are generally more critical of the AI ​​industry. Fifth, the company's pre-crisis valuation was based on a perfectionist model. Companies that pay a high premium for future growth are particularly sensitive to any disruption of their narrative.

Another aspect that is rarely considered in traditional valuation models is the question of corporate culture. If the allegations in the second affair are confirmed, particularly the claim that the security team attempted to silence a witness, this would point to a culture in which protecting the CEO took precedence over transparency. For investors, this is a warning sign because it raises doubts about the reliability of internal controls. And especially for a company whose business is closely linked to export controls and national security, reliable internal controls are not a trivial matter.

My assessment is therefore this: The market has rightly reassessed a real risk, but is overreacting in the acute phase because uncertainty is punished more severely than quantifiable damage. Once there is clarity regarding the leadership question, some of the losses should be recovered, largely regardless of the outcome of the decision. Markets cope better with bad news than with unanswered questions. A credible transition plan with an experienced CFO at the helm and a strong technical leadership team would significantly reduce uncertainty. Confirmation of Huang's appointment after a thorough investigation would also provide clarity, but at the cost of continued political and legal burdens.

Lessons for Corporate Management and Capital Markets

Beyond the individual case, the affair contains several lessons that are relevant for companies and investors worldwide.

The first lesson concerns succession planning. A company with a market capitalization of several trillion dollars without a discernible succession plan for its CEO is, from a governance perspective, an anachronism. Boards of directors have a responsibility to prepare for the absence of their most important executive, not just when a crisis occurs. The fact that this oversight is now coming to light will have a lasting impact on the debate about oversight in founder-led technology companies.

The second lesson concerns the independence of supervisory boards. A board of directors whose core members have worked with the founder for decades may be loyal and competent, but in a crisis, it quickly comes under suspicion of being too close to the CEO. The rapid about-face from expressions of confidence to debates about replacing the CEO demonstrates how difficult it is to act credibly from such a situation.

The third lesson concerns the connection between private life and business risk. In an era where technology companies have become strategic players in geopolitics, the private relationships of their executives can become a security risk. Targeted approaches by foreign intelligence services to decision-makers are not the stuff of spy novels, but a real risk that must be considered in compliance systems. Companies possessing critical technologies will need to rethink their security protocols for top management.

The fourth lesson concerns investors themselves. The concentration of global stock markets on a few technology companies means that the fate of a single manager now affects the returns of millions of savers. Nvidia is heavily weighted in almost every major index fund. A share price crash resulting from a leadership crisis therefore affects not only speculative investors, but also pension funds, life insurance companies, and private retirement savings. The concentration risk of one company thus becomes the concentration risk of entire portfolios.

A company situated between a person and an institution

Ultimately, Nvidia faces a fundamental decision that goes far beyond whether Jensen Huang stays or leaves. It's about whether the company can successfully transition from a founder-driven organization to an institution that can function even without its founder. All large companies must eventually undergo this transition. For Nvidia, it may come abruptly, under the conditions of an acute crisis, shortly before the release of crucial quarterly results and a congressional hearing.

The coming days will reveal how the board of directors decides. A hasty dismissal could create a leadership vacuum just before the quarterly results are due. Holding on to Huang could further damage the confidence of the capital markets and politicians. Both options carry significant risks, and neither is without cost.

However, one thing is already clear: the Nvidia case refutes the notion that economics is solely a matter of numbers and demand analyses. Demand for AI chips is as high as ever, factories are running, and customers continue to order. And yet, the world's most valuable semiconductor company has lost hundreds of billions of dollars in value in just a few days because people have lost trust in one another. Trust isn't reflected in balance sheets. You only realize its value when it's gone.

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