Published on: April 24, 2025 / update from: April 24, 2025 - Author: Konrad Wolfenstein
Did USA lost the trade war with China? Trump's trade policy: Between defeat and unpredictable strategy - Image: Xpert.digital
Politics of unpredictability: Trump remains a factor
Strategic dynamics: Why Trump has not yet been written off
The recent development in the trade war between the USA and China shows a significant defeat for the Trump administration. Nevertheless, it would be premature to write off Trump politically, since his unpredictability and penchant for sudden strategy change will remain a determining characteristic of his presidency. The current U -turn in the tariffs could only be a tactical withdrawal before it goes back to the offensive elsewhere.
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The defeat in the trade war with China
Donald Trump's attempt to kill China economically through massive tariffs has failed spectacularly. After the introduction of punitive tariffs of up to 145 percent of Chinese goods, the US government was forced to make a drastic change of course within a few weeks. The US President, who originally initiated the trade war with great self-confidence, now faces the ruins of his strategy and consider to reduce the tariffs to around 50 to 65 percent.
The economic consequences of this misguided policy were devastating. Within just four days after the introduction of punitive tariffs, around $ 9.6 trillion was destroyed on the stock exchanges . The Dow-Jones index lost impressive 4000 points within 48 hours, which meant a loss of more than 1500 points for the first time in its history. This negative development forced Trump to steer quickly in order to avert further damage from the US economy.
China's strategic superiority
A crucial factor for Trump's defeat was China's skillful counter reaction. Beijing targeted his control over rare earths that are indispensable for the production of high-tech products and the armaments industry. Since China dominates the world market in this area, Beijing was sitting on the longer lever and was able to hit the USA sensitive. The People's Republic also imposed against tariffs of up to 84 percent to US goods and promised other “decisive and drastic” measures.
The economic consequences for American consumers were immediately noticeable: Products from vacuum cleaners to the food mixer became almost 2.5 times as expensive as in March 2025. Many Chinese companies completely stopped delivering to the United States, and American companies could not close this gap quickly enough, which led to empty shelves in US shops.
Project 2025: The blueprint for Trump's radical agenda
Despite this obvious defeat in the trade war, it would be a mistake to write down Trump politically. The so -called “Project 2025” offers insights into its long -term strategy and shows that it continues to pursue far -reaching plans. This comprehensive program, developed by the right-wing conservative Heritage Foundation, aims at a radical conversion of the US government apparatus and the bundling of power in the hands of the President.
Almost two thirds of Trump's previous enacted since taking office should come directly or indirectly from this plan. The project provides for far-reaching changes in the entire US government, especially in economic and social policy as well as the roles of the federal government and the federal authorities. Among other things, this includes the plan to replace around 50,000 federal officials with politically loyal supporters - a drastic departure from previous practice to exchange only about 4,000 political civil servants in the event of a change of government.
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Trump's unpredictable negotiating style
Another reason for caution is Trump's unpredictable negotiating style. He relies on fast deals and low US obligations to profil himself as an effective negotiator. His strategy is based on a form of real policy that dissolves from idealistic principles and instead relies on pragmatic solutions. He pursues three main goals:
- Minimization of costs: Reduction of the US military and financial obligations in international conflicts
- Fast results: preference for short -term “deals” compared to lengthy negotiations
- Domestic success: staging as a capable negotiator and dealmaker to strengthen his political position
The economic risks of Trump's politics
The stock market turmoil initiated by Trump in April 2025 are already known as “Börsen Crash 2025” and are currently considered the greatest slump in the global stock market since the stock market crash from 2020 during the Covid 19 pandemy. This development has triggered concern for business experts from “Trumpcession” - a recession caused by Trump's politics.
The dynamics on the US labor market have significantly reduced. In February 2025, only 151,000 new jobs were created, after only 125,000 in January-a severe decline compared to the 323,000 new jobs in December 2024. Even Trump no longer excludes a recession and speaks of a “transition phase” of the US economy.
The risk of sudden change of strategy
Trump has already proven several times that he is ready to change his strategy suddenly when he comes under pressure. After the introduction of the high tariffs on April 2, 2025, which he referred to as the “day of liberation”, he had to quickly row back due to the negative market reactions. At first he suspended the punitive tariffs for the entire world except China, but less than three weeks later the China-Zölle also “landed history and in the garbage can”.
This willingness to change the course makes him unpredictable. If his withdrawal from the China tariffs is interpreted as a weakness, he could be tried to act particularly aggressively in other areas of foreign or economic policy in order to restore his image as a strong negotiator.
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Trump's foreign policy: between “peace through strength” and confrontation
In his foreign policy, Trump pursues the motto “Peace through strength”. This strategy could lead to unexpected confrontations, especially if he is looking for success in other areas after his defeat in the trade war. Trump has already announced that it will “very soon” meet the Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he accuses of “destroying” Russia by refusing to do an armistice with Ukraine.
His statements about international conflicts are often contradictory and change at short notice. So he described a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, for which he had made himself strong, shortly afterwards. This inconsistency makes its future steps difficult to predict.
Caution despite the current setbacks is required
Despite his obvious defeat in the trade war with China, Donald Trump remains an unpredictable player on the global political stage. His willingness to make radical changes in course, his fixation on quick successes and his personal style of negotiation make him a risk factor in international politics.
The current development in the trade conflict should not be seen as a final failure of his strategy, but rather as a tactical withdrawal. With the “Project 2025” as an ideological foundation and its tendency to unexpected measures, Trump could look for new confrontations at any time- be it in the area of commercial, foreign or security policy.
The story has shown that Trump often reacts with special hardness after setbacks to demonstrate his supposed strength. Therefore, caution is advised: The current defeat in the trade war with China could only be the prelude to new, possibly even more drastic measures with which Trump wants to restore his position as a determined negotiator.
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