Expected economic development for 2025 according to GDP in the various countries

Forecasts for individual countries sometimes differ considerably. Nevertheless, an overall trend towards economic recovery is discernible for 2025, the extent of which will be significantly influenced by various factors and the successful implementation of economic policy measures.

India

• Expected GDP growth in 2025: 8.2%
• Challenges: Poverty, inequality, infrastructure deficits
• Positive factors: Young population growth, digital economy

China

• Expected GDP growth in 2025: 5.2%
• Challenges: Weak real estate sector, high debt, demographic change
• Focus on developing “new high-quality productive forces”

USA

• Expected GDP growth in 2025: 2.2%
• Challenges: Inflation, geopolitical tensions
• Positive factors: High productivity, planned government investments

Japan

• Expected GDP growth in 2025: 1.92%
• Challenges: Aging population, high national debt, stagnant wages
• Planned record budget with a focus on defense and the regional economy

South Korea

• Expected GDP growth in 2025: 1.36%
• Challenges: High household debt, demographic decline, export dependency
• The current political crisis could negatively impact economic development

EU

• Expected GDP growth in 2025: 1.3%
• Challenges: Geopolitical uncertainties, weak external demand
• Planned investments in key areas such as health and climate protection

Singapore

• Expected GDP growth in 2025: 1.1%
• Challenges: High inflation, weak global demand
• Planned joint special economic zone with Malaysia to promote economic development

Germany

• Expected GDP growth in 2025: 0.4%
• Challenges: Persistent recession, weakening industrial production, skills shortage, high energy costs
• Positive factors: Strong export economy, focus on renewable energies and digitalization

Pakistan

• Expected GDP growth in 2025: -0.2%
• Challenges: High inflation (29.2%), political instability, balance of payments problems
• Focus on addressing economic and structural problems

The growth rates of Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) from 1960 to 2024 cover a considerable time period. Here is an overview of the annual GDP growth rates (real), based on available historical data.

Real GDP growth rates in Germany (1960–2024)

1960s

• 1960: +8,1 %
• 1961: +4,4 %
• 1962: +4,5 %
• 1963: +2,6 %
• 1964: +5,7
• 1965: +4,8 %
• 1966: +4,0 %
• 1967: -0.2% (recession)
• 1968: +4,4 %
• 1969: +8,0 %

1970s

• 1970: +5,0 %
• 1971: +3,1 %
• 1972: +4,1 %
• 1973: +5,3 %
• 1974: -0.9% (oil crisis)
• 1975: -1.2% (recession)
• 1976: +5,6 %
• 1977: +3,4 %
• 1978: +3,2 %
• 1979: +4,0 %

1980s

• 1980: +1,2 %
• 1981: -0,3 %
• 1982: -0,8 %
• 1983: +1,3 %
• 1984: +2,6 %
• 1985: +2,3 %
• 1986: +2,1 %
• 1987: +1,3 %
• 1988: +3,4 %
• 1989: +3,8 %

1990s: (Reunification and aftermath)

• 1990: +5,7 %
• 1991: +5,1 %
• 1992: +2,2 %
• 1993: -1,0 %
• 1994: +2,3 %
• 1995: +1,9 %
• 1996: +0,7 %
• 1997: +1,5 %
• 1998: +2,1 %
• 1999: +2,0 %

2000s

• 2000: +3,1 %
• 2001: +1,5 %
• 2002: +0,0 %
• 2003: -0,7 %
• 2004: +1,1 %
• 2005: +0,7 %
• 2006: +3,9 %
• 2007: +3,4 %
• 2008: +1,1 %
• 2009: -5.7% (financial crisis)

2010s

• 2010: +4.2% (recovery from the financial crisis)
• 2011: +3,7 %
• 2012: +0,4 %
• 2013: +0,4 %
• 2014: +2,2 %
• 2015: +1,7 %
• 2016: +2,2 %
• 2017: +2,6 %
• 2018: +1,3 %
• 2019: +0,6 %

2020s: (COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions)

• 2020: -4.6% (pandemic)
• 2021: +2.7% (partial recovery)
• 2022: +1,9 %
• 2023: +0,3 %
• 2024: -0,2 %

• There are different forecasts for 2024:
  • The federal government is forecasting a decline of -0.2%.
  • The Bundesbank expects growth of 0.3% (June).
  • HWWI: Hamburg Institute of International Economics (September): 0.2%
  • RWI: Rhenish-Westphalian Institute for Economic Research (September): 0.1%
  • IWH: Halle Institute for Economic Research (September): 0%
  • IMK: Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (September): 0%
  • DIW: German Institute for Economic Research (September): 0%
  • IfW: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (September): -0.1%
  • HRI: Handelsblatt Research Institute (September): -0.3%
  • IMF: International Monetary Fund (July): 0.2%
  • ifo Institute for Economic Research, University of Munich (June): 0.4%
  • German Council of Economic Experts (May): 0.2%

• The ifo Institute recently forecasts stagnation (0.0% growth). Forecasts for 2024 have been revised downwards several times throughout the year. Economic development is being hampered by various factors, including:
  • High inflation and energy prices
  • Weak foreign demand
  • Hesitant private consumption
  • Higher financing costs for investments
  • Despite the differing forecasts, it appears that the German economy will at best experience very low growth in 2024, and may even remain in a technical recession.

Recession – Technical Recession

A technical recession describes an economic situation in which a country's gross domestic product (GDP) shrinks in two consecutive quarters compared to the previous quarter. This is the most common and simplest definition of a recession, although some economists argue that additional factors such as capacity utilization, demand, or the state of the labor market should be considered.

In most countries, the economic quarters are divided as follows:

• Quarter (Q1): 1 January to 31 March
• Quarter (Q2): 1 April to 30 June
• Quarter (Q3): July 1 to September 30
• Quarter (Q4): 1 October to 31 December

This classification serves for the standardized analysis and reporting of economic data, such as the gross domestic product (GDP).

Germany has been in a technical recession since the winter of 2023/24. Specifically:

• In the fourth quarter of 2023, economic output shrank by -0.3%.
• In the first quarter of 2024, GDP fell by a further -0.1%.

These two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth meet the definition of a technical recession.

It is important to note that this situation is different than expected. Many experts had initially hoped that the German economy would recover in 2024. Instead, the period of economic weakness continued. The reasons for this are manifold and include, among other things, the sluggish global economy, consumer restraint due to high inflation rates, increased interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Despite this technical recession, the situation is “not as dramatic” as in a “full-blown recession.” The impact has been relatively mild so far, and there is hope (though forecasts currently vary, see above) for a gradual recovery in the second half of 2024. Nevertheless, the economic situation in Germany remains challenging, and economic growth for the entire year of 2024 is expected to be very weak.

Related to this:

• Germany's economy in international comparison: Recession, challenges and global perspectives in 2025
• Is 2% economic growth acceptable? At what point does the economy start to "boom"? A comparison between the USA, China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, and others.