China threatens Japan, alarming trade figures, scandal in South Africa and Trump's 28-point plan | Expert Analysis

China threatens Japan: “Life-or-death situation” over Taiwan escalates conflict

Characterized by an aggressive unilateralism from Washington and Europe's struggle for strategic autonomy, the events of these days illustrate how much the geopolitical tectonic plates have shifted.

While the US under President Trump is cementing its withdrawal from traditional multilateral formats with a radical ultimatum on the Ukraine issue and the demonstrative boycott of the G20 summit in Johannesburg, the European Union is trying to counter this with ambitious climate targets for 2040 and new security concepts.

This week reveals a particularly dangerous dilemma for Germany: While politically, closer ties to Western values ​​are being sought, the economic facts tell a different story – China has once again overtaken the USA as the most important trading partner, but at a high price of increasing dependence and a record deficit.

From escalating tensions in the Pacific between China and Japan to domestic political turmoil in the US caused by the release of the Epstein files and the controversial remodeling of the White House: the following summary highlights a week in which diplomacy was often replaced by confrontation and national interests overshadowed global cooperation.

Expert Analysis: What is currently considered 'important' often depends heavily on which continent you open the newspaper on in the morning. To make these different realities tangible, we have selected topics that are viewed strictly from the perspective of their respective regions: What moves people in the USA? What are the topics of discussion in Brussels and Berlin? Which headlines dominate in Asia, and specifically in China?

Our goal is to provide outsiders with an authentic insight into the regional discourse. This overview should help to step outside of specific 'media bubbles' and understand which issues are currently of the highest urgency in the respective societies.

From a US perspective

Ukraine peace plan with Thanksgiving deadline

The dominant topic in the US was President Trump's aggressive push for a Ukraine peace plan. Trump set a Thanksgiving Day (November 21) deadline for Ukraine to accept his 28-point plan. The plan demands significant concessions from Ukraine: cession of the entire Donbas region to Russia, reduction of its army to 600,000 troops, a constitutional amendment prohibiting NATO membership, and permanent neutrality. Ukraine's response ranged from cautious to outright rejection, while European allies reaffirmed their support for Kyiv.

Epstein files finally released

After months of resistance, Trump signed a bill on November 19 releasing the Epstein files. The about-face came after massive pressure from within his own Republican party. The Justice Department now has 30 days to release all documents related to the investigation into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump attempted to exploit the issue politically by claiming it was a “Democrat problem.”

Immigration raid in North Carolina

The Trump administration conducted “Operation Charlotte’s Web”—a massive immigration crackdown in Charlotte, North Carolina, that resulted in the arrest of over 250 people. Masked federal agents patrolled the city and made some controversial arrests, prompting protests and criticism from Governor Josh Stein, who called it racial profiling. The operation ended on November 20, with agents then moving toward New Orleans.

Venezuela classified as a terrorist organization

The United States has designated the Venezuelan "Cartel de los Soles," which the US government says is led by President Maduro, as a foreign terrorist organization. The designation takes effect on November 24 and grants the US government expanded legal powers.

Tom Cruise receives honorary Oscar

In a ceremony on November 16, Tom Cruise received his first Oscar – an Honorary Award for his lifetime achievement. After four unsuccessful nominations, the 63-year-old actor was honored for his “incredible dedication”.

White House East Wing demolished

New photos revealed the extent of the demolition work on the White House's East Wing, which was torn down to make way for Trump's planned $300 million ballroom. The 90,000-square-foot project is being funded by private donations and has drawn considerable criticism. Polls show that 56% of Americans oppose the project.

From a European and EU perspective

G20 summit in Johannesburg – without the USA

The first G20 summit on African soil took place in Johannesburg on November 22-23. Under the motto "Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability," the heads of state and government discussed global challenges. Particularly noteworthy was the boycott by US President Trump, who made discredited claims about an alleged "white genocide" in South Africa. Argentine President Milei joined the boycott.

EU climate target for 2040 adopted

On November 5, EU environment ministers agreed on a binding climate target for 2040: a 90% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. This target includes a domestic reduction of 85% plus up to 5% through international CO2 allowances. The European Parliament approved the agreement on November 13. In parallel, an ambitious NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) for 2035 was outlined, aiming for a reduction of 66.25–72.5%.

COP30 Climate Summit in Brazil

The UN Climate Change Conference COP30 took place in Belém, Brazil, from November 10 to 21. Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the focus was on reviewing national climate contributions. Negotiations proved difficult, particularly with the EU, which rejected a draft agreement that did not include new commitments to phase out fossil fuels.

Military mobility for European security

The European Commission presented its “Military Mobility Package.” Renew Europe called for a “military Schengen Area” and emphasized the need to expand infrastructure for European defense and support for Ukraine. The priorities include European preference, closer EU-NATO cooperation, and partnerships with Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans.

Nexperia crisis between the Netherlands and China

The Dutch-Chinese chip dispute reached a preliminary climax. After weeks of tension, the Dutch government suspended its emergency decree on semiconductor manufacturer Nexperia on November 19. China had previously imposed export restrictions after the Netherlands took control of the Chinese-owned company in September. The crisis threatened supply chains of European car manufacturers.

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From a German perspective

China is once again the most important trading partner

Germany is experiencing a record trade deficit with China. According to the Federal Statistical Office, foreign trade with China amounted to €185.9 billion from January to September 2025, making China Germany's most important trading partner once again, ahead of the USA (€184.7 billion). Particularly worrying is the fact that German exports to China plummeted by 12.3%, while imports from China rose by 8.5%. The projected deficit for 2025 could reach €87 billion.

Klingbeil's visit to China

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) traveled to China from November 17 to 19 for the fourth German-Chinese financial dialogue. In Beijing, he met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and called for fair competition, reliable access to critical raw materials (especially rare earths), and a reduction of Chinese overcapacity. Klingbeil expressed his satisfaction with the visit and emphasized that China takes German concerns seriously.

National Day of Mourning on November 17th

On November 17, Germany commemorated the victims of National Socialism and both World Wars on Remembrance Day. The Bundestag marked the national day of mourning with a central memorial service attended by the Federal President, the Federal Chancellor, and the diplomatic corps.

Trade tensions with China in focus

German economic experts have warned of the consequences of trade with China. The trade conflict between the US and China is hitting Germany hard, as Chinese products are flooding the German market at heavily subsidized prices. Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) expects China to slip to sixth place as Germany's export market by 2025.

From an Asian perspective (general)

China-Japan tensions over Taiwan

Relations between China and Japan have reached a new low. Following comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could pose a “life-threatening situation” for Japan, China reacted sharply. Beijing issued travel warnings for Japan, again halted seafood imports, and conducted eight days of live-fire exercises in the Yellow Sea. China’s UN ambassador described Takaichi’s remarks as a “grave violation of international law.”

Sheikh Hasina sentenced to death

On November 17, Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death in absentia. The court found her guilty of crimes against humanity for ordering a brutal crackdown on student protests in 2024, which resulted in the deaths of up to 1,400 people. The verdict could trigger political unrest ahead of elections scheduled for February 2026.

Philippines: Mass protests against corruption

Hundreds of thousands of Filipinos took to the streets on November 17 to demand accountability for a corruption scandal involving flood control projects. Following two devastating typhoons in November that claimed at least 259 lives, it was revealed that of approximately $26 billion allocated for flood protection, 25-30% had disappeared as bribes. The first arrest warrant was issued on November 20.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang on a trip

Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Moscow (SCO meeting), Zambia, and participated in the G20 summit in Johannesburg from November 17 to 23. The diplomatic tour underscored China's engagement in international forums and its relations with Russia and African countries.

Russia's Putin prepares for visit to India

Russian President Putin is planning his first visit to India since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022 for early December. Moscow offered India unlimited access to the Su-57's 5th generation stealth technology – an unprecedented offer that no Western country has ever made.

From a Chinese perspective

15th National Games in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau

The 15th National Games of the People's Republic of China took place from November 9th to 21st, for the first time jointly in Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau. The country's premier national multi-sport event underscores the integration of these special administrative regions.

Alibaba allegations from the USA

A White House memo accused Alibaba of assisting the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) in "operations" against US targets. The memo claims Alibaba granted the PLA access to customer data (IP addresses, Wi-Fi information, payment data) and AI services, as well as sharing information about zero-day vulnerabilities. Alibaba rejected the allegations as "completely false" and called them a malicious PR stunt.

Nexperia conflict with the Netherlands

The semiconductor dispute between Nexperia China and its Dutch parent company escalated further. The Chinese plant in Dongguan refused to make payments and defied instructions from Nijmegen. China accused the Netherlands of destabilizing the semiconductor supply chain, while the Dutch government placed 99% of Nexperia's shares under trusteeship. On November 19, the situation eased temporarily.

Tensions with Japan over Taiwan comments

Chinese state media threatened Japan with a “devastating” military response following Prime Minister Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan. The Chinese consul general in Osaka wrote in a now-deleted post that Takaichi’s “head must be cut off.” China issued travel warnings and again halted seafood imports from Japan.

German-Chinese financial dialogue

At the fourth German-Chinese financial dialogue in Beijing on November 17-18, German Finance Minister Klingbeil and Vice Premier He Lifeng met. China signaled its readiness for reliable supply chains of critical raw materials and promoted German investment. The joint declaration emphasized rules-based markets and global economic stability.

China's trade surplus with Germany is growing

From a Chinese perspective, the development of trade with Germany is positive: Exports to Germany rose by 8.5%, while imports from Germany fell by 12.3%. China benefits from its increasing technological independence and the localization of German companies in China.

Cross-cutting themes and evaluation

• Geopolitical shifts: The week was characterized by increasing US unilateralism under Trump (Ukraine ultimatum, Venezuela designation, G20 boycott) and a simultaneous strengthening of regional and multilateral partnerships (G20 in South Africa, EU climate policy, China-Russia relations).
• Economic tensions: Trade conflicts between major economic blocs intensified, particularly between China and the West. Germany increasingly finds itself caught between its economic interests in China and the geopolitical expectations of its Western partners.
• Climate policy: While the EU adopted ambitious climate targets for 2040, thereby underlining its leadership role, the COP30 negotiations in Brazil were protracted, with disputes over fossil fuels and climate finance.
• Regional conflicts: The week highlighted the fragility of regional security situations – from China-Japan tensions to Taiwan, the Ukraine issue, and corruption crises in South Asia.

The different regional perspectives illustrate how fragmented the global political landscape has become, with its own priorities and narratives that are often difficult to reconcile.

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