The SaaS crisis: From hype to negative reality in 24 months – Affected: Slack, Calendly and Personio – Image: Xpert.Digital
Turning point for the SaaS industry: Why successful companies stumble
Market analysis: The looming decline of large SaaS companies
The Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) industry is facing a massive turning point. After years of explosive growth and astronomical valuations, recent market data shows that established SaaS companies like Slack, Calendly, and Personio are facing significant challenges. The following article analyzes why the SaaS stars of the last decade could potentially become some of the biggest losers of the next 24 months.
The end of an era: The current state of the SaaS market
The global SaaS market remains impressively large – it was estimated at around US$250 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to US$299 billion by the end of that year. Other forecasts are even more optimistic, predicting growth to US$307.3 billion by 2026, with an annual growth rate of 11.7%. Long-term estimates even see the market exceeding US$1.2 trillion by 2034.
But behind these impressive figures lie worrying trends. Valuation multiples for SaaS companies have fallen significantly. Currently, SaaS firms are valued at an average of 6.2 times their annual revenue, which is below the historical 5- and 10-year average of 8-9x. The BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index shows a decline in revenue multiples to 5.79x in the second quarter of 2024, a decrease of 10% compared to the end of 2023.
Particularly alarming: The average revenue growth of SaaS companies fell to 12.31% in 2024, compared to 19.85% the previous year. This signals a significant slowdown in industry growth and indicates increasing market saturation.
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Case studies of distress: Slack, Calendly and Personio
Slack: The communication giant under pressure
Slack was acquired by Salesforce in 2020 for an impressive $27.7 billion. In 2023, the company generated $1.7 billion in revenue, representing 17% year-over-year growth. While these figures appear solid, there are signs of trouble. User complaints about the service's reliability have been increasing since the Salesforce acquisition. Furthermore, the 17% growth rate is significantly lower than the company's previous expansion rates, when Slack grew by 30-40% annually.
Calendly: A billion-dollar business for appointment scheduling
Calendly achieved a valuation of $3 billion in its last funding round in January 2021. The company increased its revenue from $70 million in 2020 to $143.7 million in 2022. With approximately 10 million active users, Calendly appears to be well-positioned. Nevertheless, the question remains whether a simple appointment scheduling solution justifies this valuation, especially given the increasing number of AI-powered alternatives.
Personio: The HR giant in trouble
The German HR tech company Personio offers a particularly revealing example. In November 2024, the company announced organizational changes and laid off approximately 115 employees, representing 6% of its workforce. As early as January 2024, Personio had already laid off around 100 employees, primarily from its product and technology departments. While Personio's revenue grew to $241.5 million in 2023, the repeated layoffs point to deeper underlying problems.
CEO Hanno Renner admitted in an internal memo that the company had overestimated its growth. He explained that investment decisions in recent years were based on the assumption that the exceptional growth rates would continue. He cited external challenges, such as a weaker economy, as well as internal problems with the implementation of growth strategies as reasons for the current situation.
AI and Open Source: The New Disruptors
Perhaps the biggest threat to established SaaS providers comes from AI-powered solutions and open-source alternatives. ChatGPT has quickly become the leading "shadow IT" application in companies, overtaking traditional tools like LinkedIn, Canva, and Adobe Acrobat. This development demonstrates how rapidly AI-based solutions are adopted by employees—often without official approval from the IT department.
The integration of AI into business processes is progressing rapidly. According to recent surveys, 49% of companies already use AI systems, and another 30% plan to do so in the future. Remarkably, 48% of companies using AI have replaced human workers with it. These figures underscore the disruptive potential of AI for traditional software solutions.
At the same time, low-code and no-code platforms are experiencing a boom. A significant increase in adoption is predicted for 2025, as these platforms increasingly integrate AI features that further simplify development. This also enables smaller teams to build complex applications that previously would have required large development teams.
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The future of SaaS: Who survives, who disappears?
The data paints a clear picture: The SaaS market is in a phase of consolidation and reassessment. The commodity theory, mentioned in several sources, states that SaaS products are becoming increasingly interchangeable, leading to intense price competition, lower margins, and ultimately a "race to the bottom.".
McKinsey reports that only the top quartile of SaaS companies are achieving revenue growth exceeding 40%, while many are struggling to sustain their growth. BCG notes that while the B2B SaaS sector continues to grow, it is suffering from intense competition, particularly from new entrants offering similar solutions at lower prices.
Who will survive?
SaaS providers that solve complex problems and offer real added value have a better chance of survival. These include:
- Specialized solutions for niche industries with high regulatory requirements
- Platforms that seamlessly integrate AI and offer real productivity benefits
- Companies that go beyond pure software and create comprehensive service ecosystems
Who will disappear?
- Generic SaaS solutions whose functions can easily be replaced by AI-powered tools
- Overvalued companies that focused on growth rather than profitability
- Providers who missed the AI trend and are now trying to catch up
24 tough months ahead
The next two years will be a time of painful adjustment for many SaaS companies. The combination of falling valuations, slowing growth, and disruptive technologies like AI and open source creates a perfect storm scenario. Companies that have built their valuations on unrealistic growth expectations are particularly vulnerable.
HR solutions like Personio are already feeling the triple pressure of declining demand, increased price pressure, and disruption from internal AI solutions. The layoffs at Personio are likely just the tip of the iceberg.
The SaaS market isn't dying – it's undergoing a fundamental transformation. However, the illusion that a single feature or simple function justifies a sustainable business model is dissolving. In a world where companies can increasingly develop their own custom solutions using AI and low-code tools, SaaS providers must offer genuine, hard-to-replicate added value.
The winners will be those who adapt quickly, proactively integrate AI, and focus on solving truly complex problems. The losers will be those who cling to outdated business models and underestimate the fundamental transformation of software development brought about by AI.
For companies and investors in the SaaS sector, now is the time to critically examine business models and adapt to the new reality. The next 24 months will undoubtedly be challenging – but they will also clearly reveal which companies are truly future-proof.
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