Published on: August 5, 2025 / Updated on: August 5, 2025 – Author: Konrad Wolfenstein
What measures are Europe and NATO taking to respond to the "Sapad-2025" military exercise by Belarus and Russia? – Creative image: Xpert.Digital
Sapad-2025 military exercise: Is an escalation on Europe's eastern border imminent?
The threat posed by Sapad-2025
The Russian-Belarusian military exercises "Sapad-2025" (in English: "West"), planned for September 2025, pose a serious challenge to European security. Initial announcements indicated that approximately 13,000 soldiers were to participate in the exercises, although Western intelligence agencies estimate significantly higher numbers, up to 100,000 troops.
The exercises raise particular concerns, as the previous Zapad exercises in 2021, involving 200,000 troops, served as preparation for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Security experts such as military historian Sönke Neitzel warn that "this summer could be the last summer we experience in peace." The greatest concern is not a new attack on Ukraine, but possible aggression against NATO members such as Poland or the Baltic states.
Although Belarus announced in May 2025 that it would scale down the exercises and move them inland, it later threatened to reverse this decision in light of NATO activities. These contradictory signals are being interpreted as part of a deliberate strategy to unsettle the West.
NATO's military responses
Increased presence on the eastern flank
NATO has massively increased its military presence on its eastern flank. Germany is playing a key role with the stationing of Panzerbrigade 45 in Lithuania. This brigade comprises up to 5,000 soldiers and represents the first permanent stationing of German troops abroad since World War II. The brigade is expected to be fully operational by 2027 and is equipped with state-of-the-art Leopard 2A7 main battle tanks and Puma infantry fighting vehicles.
In addition, Germany has led the multinational NATO Battlegroup in Lithuania since 2017, currently comprising approximately 1,700 soldiers. This Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) serves as a deterrent and was established after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Suitable for:
Large-scale maneuvers in response
As a direct response to Sapad 2025, the Bundeswehr, together with 13 other NATO countries, is conducting the "Quadriga 2025" exercise series. During the core exercise period from August to September 2025, approximately 8,000 German soldiers will practice protecting the Baltic Sea region under wartime conditions. The focus areas are:
- The transfer of troops and equipment to Lithuania
- Crossing strategically important rivers such as the Vistula
- Securing the Suwalki Gap, the narrow 100-kilometer corridor between Poland and Lithuania
Germany is deploying Eurofighter fighter jets to Poland for the first time to secure the airspace during Russian exercises. Poland is planning its own large-scale exercises with 34,000 troops in response to Sapad-2025, while Lithuania is conducting the national defense exercise "Thunder Strike."
Strategic defense planning
NATO has adopted new, top-secret capability goals that call for a massive upgrade. Priority is given to:
- Long-range weapon systems and air defense
- Mobile Land Forces
- Protection of critical infrastructure
- Cyber and space capabilities
Germany plans to increase its defense spending to 152.8 billion euros by 2029. NATO member states aim for defense spending of 5 percent of gross domestic product in the medium term.
Political and diplomatic measures
EU defense initiatives
The European Union has launched comprehensive defense initiatives with the "ReArm Europe" plan and the "Readiness 2030" White Paper. The package includes:
- Mobilizing up to 800 billion euros for defense investments
- The new EU instrument SAFE (Security Action For Europe) with 150 billion euros for joint armament projects
- The activation of the escape clause in the Stability and Growth Pact for national defense spending
Strengthening NATO through new members
The accession of Finland (April 2023) and Sweden (March 2024) to NATO significantly strengthens the alliance. NATO's border with Russia has been extended by 1,340 kilometers. Both countries bring modern, well-equipped armed forces, including Finland's order for over 60 F-35 fighter jets.
Coordinated deterrence strategy
NATO pursues a strategy of "credible deterrence." Core elements are:
- The reaffirmation of the obligation to provide assistance under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty
- The development of new defense plans for different threat scenarios
- Reducing reaction times through forward presence
Protection against hybrid warfare
Defense against sabotage and cyber attacks
Europe faces a growing hybrid threat from Russia. Attacks include:
- Acts of sabotage against critical infrastructure such as Baltic Sea cables
- Cyberattacks on government institutions
- Drone flights over military restricted areas
- espionage activities
Germany is therefore building homeland security regiments made up of reservists to protect critical infrastructure in an emergency. The EU is also planning a National Security Council with expanded powers to counter hybrid threats.
Combating disinformation
Russia is waging massive disinformation campaigns against Germany and Europe. The "Doppelgänger" campaign uses fake news sites and over 50,000 social media accounts to spread misinformation. The "Storm-1516" campaign was also launched for the 2025 federal election.
The countermeasures include:
- Educating the public about disinformation methods
- Use of artificial intelligence to detect fake news
- Increased cooperation between security authorities and the media
- Deletion of identified disinformation accounts
Special challenges
The Iskander threat
Of particular concern is the deployment of Russian Iskander missile systems in Belarus. These can be equipped with nuclear warheads and have an official range of 500 kilometers, although newer versions could reach up to 1,000 kilometers. From Belarus, large parts of Germany would thus be within range.
The Suwalki gap as a vulnerability
The Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania is considered the "most dangerous place in the world." Russia could theoretically occupy this corridor from Belarus and Kaliningrad within 30 to 60 hours, thus cutting off the Baltic states from the rest of NATO. Securing this strategically critical region is therefore a top priority.
Europe's defense capability without the USA
Given the uncertainty surrounding future US support, Europe must strengthen its own defense capabilities. Analyses show that without the US, Europe would need approximately 300,000 additional troops and an additional €250 billion annually for defense. Critical capability gaps exist in:
- Strategic air transport and air refueling
- Satellite-based reconnaissance
- Long-range precision weapons
- Integrated air and missile defense
Long-term strategies
Expansion of the defense industry
Europe is investing heavily in expanding its arms industry. Priorities include:
- Joint European armament projects
- Shortening the approval process from years to 60 days
- Building strategic ammunition reserves
- Development of new technologies such as drone defense systems
Suitable for:
- Analysis of the security and resilience of rail and road infrastructure against sabotage and attacks
Strengthening social resilience
The Baltic states are building a "Baltic Defense Line" with bunkers, tank traps, and minefields along the border with Russia. At the same time, the civilian population is being prepared for potential crises by:
- Evacuation plans for border regions
- Building up emergency reserves
- Training on protection against cyberattacks
- Strengthening psychological resilience against disinformation
Between deterrence and escalation: Europe's security policy challenge
Europe's and NATO's response to Sapad 2025 demonstrates a comprehensive reorientation of security policy. The measures range from massive military buildup to the expansion of alliance defense and protection against hybrid threats. It becomes clear that Europe's security can no longer be taken for granted.
The stationing of German troops in Lithuania, the conduct of counter-exercises, and the massive increase in defense spending send a clear signal of determination. At the same time, the preparation for various threat scenarios demonstrates that Europe has learned the lessons of the Russian attack on Ukraine.
The greatest challenge remains the balance between credible deterrence and avoiding uncontrolled escalation. Europe must strengthen its defense capabilities without falling into a spiral of arms buildup that ultimately serves no one's security.
Suitable for:
Advice – planning – implementation
Markus Becker
I would be happy to serve as your personal advisor.
Head of Business Development
Chairman SME Connect Defense Working Group
Hub for security and defense – advice and information
Hub for security and defense – Image: Xpert.digital
The hub for security and defense offers well-founded advice and current information in order to effectively support companies and organizations in strengthening their role in European security and defense policy. In close connection to the SME Connect working group, he promotes small and medium -sized companies (SMEs) in particular that want to further expand their innovative strength and competitiveness in the field of defense. As a central point of contact, the hub creates a decisive bridge between SME and European defense strategy.
Suitable for:
