Published on: June 20, 2025 / update from: June 20, 2025 - Author: Konrad Wolfenstein
NATO summit in the Haag on June 24th and 25th, 2025: Tensions about defense spending and Trump fears-Image: Xpert.digital
NATO crisis 2025: Defense spending and US President split Allianz
Defense expenditure dispute overshadows NATO meeting in the Hague
The upcoming NATO summit in the Hague on June 24th and 25th June 2025 is under considerable political tensions. Two central areas of conflict threaten the unity of the alliance: the controversial demand for a drastic increase in defense spending to five percent of gross domestic product and the uncertainty about the participation of US President Donald Trump.
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Trump's five percent claim divides the alliance
US President Donald Trump has confirmed his claim that was already expressed in January that all NATO member states should spend five percent of their gross domestic product for defense. This would mean more than a doubling of the current two percent goal, which was recently fully achieved by all NATO countries.
Ruttes diplomatic compromise proposal
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the former Dutch Prime Minister, has developed a strategic plan to meet Trump's demands and at the same time keep the European allies on the shelf. His proposal stipulates that the 32 Member States should spend a total of five percent of their GDP for safety -relevant expenses by 2032 at the latest: 3.5 percent for classic defense spending such as troops and weapons as well as 1.5 percent for defense -relevant infrastructure such as military ports, streets and bridges.
The Netherlands have already approved this plan and decided to gradually increase their defense spending to five percent, whereby the Dutch calculation also includes help for Ukraine.
Spain leads the resistance
The Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez was the first head of government openly resisted the five percent goal. In a letter to NATO general secretary Rutte, he described an increase in defense spending to five percent of GDP as "not only unreasonable, but even counterproductive". Spain announced that the NATO summit could not "commit to a certain output goal".
Spain's Minister of Defense Margarita Robles even described the NATO plans as a “big mistake” and argued that the skills should first be determined before a percentage was determined. With military spending of around 1.3 percent of GDP, Spain is one of the largest aftertacks in the Allianz, but wants to reach the two percent goal as early as 2025.
Secret resistance of other allies
In addition to Spain's official opposition, there are also secret resistance from other important NATO partners. At the G7 Finance Ministers summit, the finance ministers from France, Italy, Great Britain and Canada made it clear behind the scenes that they cannot take an increase to five percent out of their households.
Summit shortened to two and a half hours-take care of Trump-Klat
For fear of a new early departure from Trump, the NATO summit, originally planned for two days, was reduced to a single two and a half hour session according to “Financial Times”. This drastic shortening took place after Trump had recently left the G7 summit in Canada prematurely.
Claudia Major, Senior Vice President at the German Marshall Fund, commented on this development: "It was reduced from two days to a two -hour session ... So that should be feasible, and my hope is that it works." At the same time, she admitted: "But I gave up trying to predict Trump".
Division in the German federal government
There is also disagreement on defense spending within the German federal government. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) and Foreign Minister Johann WadePhul (CDU) publicly commit themselves to the five percent. Wade phulic argues that Trump's demands are “entirely in our interest” and Europe has to detach itself from the illusion “that security does not cost anything or is even cheap”.
Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD), on the other hand, is only ready to increase expenses to 3.5 percent. He explained: "If in the end it is three percent, then we do three percent, if it is called 3.5 percent, then we do 3.5 percent", but turned against a "pure number debate".
SPD peace circles warn of upgrading spiral
The tensions within the SPD are reinforced by a “manifesto” of over 100 SPD-related persons, which was released shortly before the party congress at the end of June. Prominent signatories such as the former parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich, foreign politician Ralf Stegner and ex-party leader Norbert Walter-Borjans are calling for a departure policy and direct diplomatic discussions with Russia.
In the paper, the planned increase in defense spending is described as “irrational”, since there is “no security policy justification”. Stegner described the five percent, i.e. 225 billion euros annually, as “smooth madness” and “insane sums”.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius reacted sharply to the manifesto and described it as a “refusal of reality”.
Outlook on the critical summit
The NATO summit in the Haag is the first under the direction of Mark Rutte as the new general secretary. In addition to increasing defense expenditure, the main topics also include strengthening NATO settlement and defense skills as well as the further support of Ukraine.
The drastic shortening of the summit over two and a half hours shows how much the NATO partner tries to integrate Trump, even if this could be at the expense of a comprehensive discussion of the complex security policy challenges. The summit thus becomes a critical test for the future of the transatlantic alliance in a time of growing geopolitical tensions.
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From 34% to 1%: the gap in global military budgets
The proportion of military expenditure in the gross domestic product (GDP) is a central indicator of the security policy priorities of a country. A comparison of the data for 2024 and 2025 reveals a world of extremes, which ranges from the highest levels due to war to comparatively moderate odds.
Ukraine and Russia: The Extreme in Armor Run
Ukraine is at the top of this comparison: In 2024, the country spent around 34% of its GDP for the military. This highest value worldwide is a direct consequence of the enormous burden of the Russian attack war. According to the World Bank, this share reached 36.65%as early as 2023. The Ukrainian government is planning a reduction for 2025, but still estimates massive 26.3% of GDP for defense and security.
Russia is also massively switching its economy to war: the military spending increased in 2024 to around 7.05% of GDP. This marks the highest level since the fall of the Soviet Union and illustrates the extensive mobilization of the country for military purposes.
The midfield: regional tensions as a driver
A group of countries with significant but significantly lower armor components follows in midfield. This includes Pakistan, the share of which is estimated to be around 3.5% based on historical data. South Korea also invests significantly in view of the tense regional security situation and in 2023 turned around 2.6% of his GDP for defense.
Wirtschaft giants under the 2%brand
Numerous economic nations, on the other hand, move significantly below the 2%brand, which is often considered a NATO target value. India's defense budget is 1.9% of GDP for 2024/25. Japan (1.6% in 2024) is planning an increase to 2% by 2027 in response to geopolitical changes. China has deliberately stable its share for around 1.5% for years. Despite absolutely increasing sums, this percentage value is compensated for by the strong economic growth of the country. The bottom of this comparison is Brazil with a share of around 1.1% (as of 2023).
The numbers draw a clear picture: While the war in Europe dominates the households of Ukraine and Russia and forces extremely high arms rates, other countries act significantly more reserved. In particular, population and economic countries such as China, India and Brazil prioritize their military expenditure far less in relation to their economic strength. The comparison therefore not only illustrates different budgets, but above all fundamentally different strategic and political orientations on the world stage.
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Hub for security and defense - advice and information
Hub for security and defense - Image: Xpert.digital
The hub for security and defense offers well-founded advice and current information in order to effectively support companies and organizations in strengthening their role in European security and defense policy. In close connection to the SME Connect working group, he promotes small and medium -sized companies (SMEs) in particular that want to further expand their innovative strength and competitiveness in the field of defense. As a central point of contact, the hub creates a decisive bridge between SME and European defense strategy.
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