Dual-use logistics as a key element in making espionage via supply routes more difficult

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Danger in the gray zone: Russia's hybrid war reaches Germany – drones as a weapon of espionage

In the heart of Germany, over key transport routes and near Bundeswehr bases, an invisible conflict is taking place. Russian drones are systematically monitoring German supply routes and specifically spying on the logistics of arms deliveries to Ukraine. These operations, sightings of which number in the hundreds, are not accidental, but a deliberate act of hybrid warfare. As a logistical hub for NATO and Ukraine's second-largest supporter, Germany is firmly in the Kremlin's crosshairs.

But this aerial espionage is just the tip of the iceberg. It is part of a comprehensive strategy aimed at blurring the lines between war and peace and destabilizing Western democracies from within. With a broad arsenal of disinformation, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, economic pressure, and the targeted recruitment of agents, Russia deliberately operates in legal and political gray areas. The primary goal is not open confrontation, but rather the erosion of social cohesion and the state order.

This article illuminates the alarming reality of this new form of conflict. It analyzes how Russian drones are challenging German security architecture, Germany's strategic importance in this conflict, and the true vulnerability of our critical infrastructure. Furthermore, it presents innovative defense strategies—from advanced drone countermeasures systems and intelligent dual-use logistics to international cooperation—necessary to effectively counter the growing hybrid threat. This is a battle not fought on some distant front, but right here and now.

The menacing reality of hybrid warfare: How Russian drones monitor German supply routes

Modern warfare has fundamentally changed since the end of the Cold War. While military conflicts in the past were mostly characterized by clear front lines and open combat, today's threat landscape is characterized by a new dimension of conflict: hybrid warfare. This form of conflict deliberately blurs the lines between war and peace and utilizes a wide range of means that extend far beyond the traditional military spectrum.

The nature of hybrid warfare

Hybrid warfare describes a flexible mix of overt and covert regular and irregular, symmetrical and asymmetrical, military and non-military means of conflict. This type of conflict aims to blur the binary legal categories of war and peace and deliberately operates in gray areas where assigning responsibility becomes difficult.

The term was first defined in its current sense in 2005 by US Marine officer and military theorist Frank G. Hoffman and gained wider acceptance in German-speaking countries in 2014 due to Russia's military interventions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The Russian leadership had deployed troops without insignia, thereby establishing a new paradigm of warfare.

Hybrid warfare is a creative combination of various means, with a focus on the civilian sphere and the primary targets of state order and social cohesion. This type of conflict utilizes a very broad toolbox, in which the military is only one instrument among many. These instruments are precisely tailored to allow hybrid actors to operate in selected gray areas.

Elements of hybrid warfare

Modern hybrid warfare encompasses a variety of elements that are systematically combined. Among the most important are disinformation and propaganda campaigns, conducted as information warfare. These aim to influence public opinion and sow confusion. Reflexive control is another key element, which attempts to influence enemy state decisions by manipulating perceptions.

Cyberattacks and acts of sabotage against critical infrastructure form another component of the hybrid strategy. These can range from disrupting communication networks to physically damaging energy supply facilities. Economic pressure and the manipulation of energy supplies are also used as leverage.

A particularly insidious element is the targeted recruitment of individuals with connections to the target country. Russian intelligence services attempt to establish a relationship or a basis of trust, specifically approaching people with Russian roots, ethnic German repatriates, or those with ties to Russia. This strategy exploits existing social and cultural connections to gain influence.

The current threat situation in Germany

The intensity of hybrid threats against Germany has increased significantly since the beginning of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. The Military Counterintelligence Service (MAD) has registered a sharp rise in cases of espionage and hybrid measures. The approach is described as more massive and aggressive, with Russian intelligence services employing tactics reminiscent of the Cold War era and expanding their arsenal of tools.

The number of suspected cases has practically doubled within a year. As a logistical hub for NATO troop movements and an active NATO partner, Germany is firmly in the sights of foreign intelligence services. This strategic position makes the country a particularly attractive target for hybrid attacks.

Espionage and surveillance by drones

A particularly worrying aspect of the current threat situation is the systematic surveillance of German supply routes by Russian drones. According to media reports, Russia and its backers are specifically spying on military transport routes to monitor arms deliveries to Ukraine. These activities are particularly focused on routes in eastern Germany used for delivering military equipment to Ukraine.

Western intelligence agencies assume that Russia is well-informed about which arms manufacturers and conglomerates are producing for Ukraine and how relevant these products and quantities of weapons are to the country's defensive war. This detailed knowledge allows the Russian armed forces to adapt their strategies accordingly and identify potential vulnerabilities.

Intelligence officials report that drone overflights this year have reached well into the hundreds. The German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) confirm the drone overflights and speak of a significant increase since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This systematic reconnaissance extends not only to transport routes but also to Bundeswehr bases and US military installations, including Ramstein Air Base in Rhineland-Palatinate and sites near Wiesbaden, Stuttgart, and in Bavaria.

The challenge of drone defense

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius expressed little surprise at the reports of drone espionage, describing the situation as a constant technical cat-and-mouse game between what drone developers are doing and what can be done to defend against it. He added that determining the location from which drones are controlled is often very difficult, further complicating the challenge.

The German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) are not responsible for monitoring civilian territory or road connections in Germany with regard to drones. This creates a gray area that is systematically exploited by Russian actors. While the protection of military installations has been strengthened and various techniques for intercepting drones are being developed, comprehensive surveillance of German airspace remains a complex task.

Modern drone defense systems utilize a combination of different technologies. Sophisticated radar systems, electro-optical sensors, and acoustic detectors enable the early detection and tracking of drones. Jamming and deception maneuvers can disrupt drone communication and navigation, while interceptor drones equipped with nets offer another option.

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Germany as a strategic target

Due to its geographical location and its role in NATO, Germany occupies a key position in the European security architecture. The country serves as a central hub for military transport and resupply to NATO's eastern flank and Ukraine. This strategic importance makes Germany a primary target for hybrid attacks.

The Kremlin views Germany as an adversary because it is the second-largest supporter of Russia-invaded Ukraine. This perception leads to a direct confrontation with Russia that extends beyond Ukraine and is, in reality, about the creation of a new world order.

Military mobility and vulnerability

The concept of military mobility in Europe has gained new urgency due to the war in Ukraine. The European Union and NATO are working intensively to improve military mobility and remove obstacles to the movement of military equipment and personnel. Plans include simplifying and standardizing customs formalities and clarifying regulations for the transport of so-called dangerous goods.

As a geostrategically central transit nation in Europe, Germany bears a special responsibility for military mobility. The country coordinates all troop movements via Germany as a hub and is responsible for smooth operations. However, this role also makes Germany a particularly vulnerable target for hybrid attacks.

Dual-use technologies and logistics solutions

A key element in hindering espionage via supply lines lies in the intelligent use of dual-use technologies and logistics solutions. The term "dual-use" refers to goods, software, and technologies that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. This dual usability offers strategic advantages in concealing military activities.

Dual-use logistics

The concept of dual-use logistics extends the traditional dual-use concept to transport infrastructure. Dual-use transport infrastructure refers to systems such as railway lines, bridges, tunnels, and especially combined transport terminals, which are designed, built, or upgraded to meet the requirements of both civilian freight transport and the specific needs of military transport.

This strategy offers several advantages in countering espionage. By mixing civilian and military transport, it becomes significantly more difficult for reconnaissance drones to identify specifically military shipments. Utilizing existing civilian logistics networks obscures the actual transport routes and makes it more complex for enemy intelligence to recognize patterns.

Decentralized logistics strategies

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukraine has established a decentralized logistics system for Western arms shipments. Supplies are not all loaded onto a single train to potentially make it a lucrative target, but rather distributed across various trains, often operating at night, and then transported to the respective deployment locations.

This decentralized approach significantly reduces the risk of attacks and makes it more difficult for espionage to gather complete information about shipments. Logistics units rely on a network of many small depots instead of storing supplies in just a few central locations. This diversification reduces losses from attacks and makes them easier to mitigate.

The role of critical infrastructures

Critical infrastructures form the basis for the functioning of modern, efficient societies. These include energy and water supply, transport and traffic, as well as information technology and telecommunications. Ensuring the protection of these infrastructures is a core task for the state and the economy and a central theme of German security policy.

Threats to critical infrastructure

Hybrid attacks systematically target critical infrastructure to cause maximum societal damage. Networks or electronic connections of government agencies, administrations, hospitals, or universities are disrupted or crippled. The systems of critical infrastructure, such as railways, airports, or power plants, are attacked.

A particularly worrying phenomenon is the sabotage of underwater cables by so-called shadow fleets of hostile powers. These attacks aim to disrupt communication links between European states and hinder the coordination of defense measures.

Protective measures and resilience

The German Federal Government has recognized the importance of protecting critical infrastructure and has initiated various measures. The Joint Coordination Staff for Critical Infrastructure, which began its work in October 2022, is intended to provide the most up-to-date situation reports on the protection of critical infrastructure and to facilitate a structured exchange between government departments.

The planned KRITIS overarching law aims to consolidate the physical protection of critical infrastructures within a unified legal framework. Cross-sectoral minimum requirements for resilience measures and mandatory reporting of disruptions are intended to further enhance the resilience of critical infrastructures in Germany.

The answer to hybrid threats

Combating hybrid threats requires a society-wide approach that extends beyond traditional security agencies. The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki, in which Germany is a founding member, coordinates the European response to these challenges.

The Helsinki Centre as a coordination point

The Hybrid CoE is the only joint EU-NATO facility and is based in Helsinki. The center focuses on responses to hybrid threats under the auspices of the European Union and NATO. As a do-tank, it is responsible for practical application, conducts training courses and exercises, and hosts workshops for policymakers.

The center defines hybrid threats as coordinated and synchronized actions that target the systemic vulnerabilities of democratic states and institutions using a variety of means. These attacks are designed to remain below clear thresholds for detection and corresponding countermeasures.

National security strategies

Germany has adapted its security strategy accordingly and is working on a comprehensive response to hybrid threats. The strategy includes both defensive and preventive measures. Defensive measures aim to increase the resilience of critical infrastructure and strengthen the intelligence capabilities of its agencies.

Preventive measures include educating the public about hybrid threats and strengthening societal resilience against disinformation campaigns. Cooperation between public and private actors is particularly important in this regard, as many critical infrastructures are privately owned.

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Technological innovations in defense

The development of new technologies for defending against hybrid threats is progressing continuously. Particularly in the area of ​​drone defense, innovative solutions are emerging that combine various approaches. Modern systems use a combination of radar, camera, and acoustic sensors to detect and track drones.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning

The use of artificial intelligence and machine learning is revolutionizing the detection and defense against hybrid threats. AI-powered systems can identify patterns in large datasets that would not be obvious to human analysts. This capability is particularly important for identifying coordinated attacks that occur across various channels and time periods.

Machine learning enables defense systems to continuously adapt to new threats. Algorithms can learn from past attacks and improve their detection capabilities accordingly. This is particularly important because hybrid actors are constantly evolving their tactics.

Sensor fusion and integrated systems

Modern defense systems rely on sensor fusion, combining data from various sources to create a complete situational picture. This technology enables robust detection even in challenging environments. The integration of different sensor technologies makes it more difficult for attackers to overcome all detection systems simultaneously.

International cooperation and coordination

Combating hybrid threats is an international task that can only be successfully accomplished through close cooperation between partners. Germany works closely with its NATO and EU partners to develop common standards and procedures.

NATO initiatives

NATO has recognized hybrid threats as one of the most important challenges to collective defense. The alliance is continuously developing new strategies and procedures to counter these threats, with a focus on strengthening the resilience of member states.

An important aspect is the development of early warning systems that make it possible to detect hybrid attacks at an early stage and initiate appropriate countermeasures. NATO is also working on developing standards for assessing and classifying hybrid attacks.

EU measures

The European Union has developed a comprehensive security strategy, the Strategic Compass, which identifies hybrid threats as a key challenge. The EU is working on developing common tools to defend against hybrid attacks and on strengthening the resilience of its member states.

Coordination between the various EU institutions and agencies is particularly important. The European Commission, the European External Action Service, and specialized agencies are working closely together to develop a coherent response to hybrid threats.

Hybrid warfare: When security and freedom collide

Combating hybrid threats presents various legal and ethical challenges. The gray areas in which hybrid actors operate make it difficult to develop appropriate legal responses. At the same time, democratic states must ensure that their defensive measures do not infringe upon the fundamental rights of their citizens.

International law and hybrid warfare

The application of international law to hybrid warfare is complex and controversial. Many hybrid attacks fall below the threshold that would justify a military response under international law. This creates an asymmetry in favor of the aggressors, who systematically exploit these gray areas.

The international community is working to adapt international law to the new realities of hybrid warfare. This involves developing new norms and standards that allow for appropriate responses to hybrid attacks without violating the principles of international law.

Data protection and surveillance

Defending against hybrid threats often requires extensive surveillance measures that can conflict with data protection and fundamental rights. Democratic states must find a balance between security and freedom that ensures both effective protection and the safeguarding of fundamental rights.

Protecting privacy during cyberspace and communications monitoring is particularly challenging. While new technologies offer improved threat detection capabilities, they also carry the risk of misuse.

The future of hybrid threats

Hybrid warfare will continue to evolve and reach new dimensions in the coming years. Technological advances in areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology will create new opportunities for hybrid attacks.

Emerging Technologies

New technologies such as autonomous systems, quantum computing, and biotechnology will significantly expand the spectrum of possible hybrid attacks. Autonomous weapon systems can be used for acts of sabotage, while quantum computing could threaten encryption. Biotechnology offers possibilities for new forms of biological warfare.

Regulating these dual-use technologies poses major challenges for the international community. It is difficult to predict how and by whom these technologies might be used in the future, and whether technologies currently used only for civilian purposes could also be used or misused for military purposes in the future.

Preventive strategies

Developing preventative strategies will be crucial for successfully defending against future hybrid threats. This includes both technological and societal measures. At the technological level, it involves developing robust and adaptable defense systems that can keep pace with the evolution of new threats.

At a societal level, strengthening resilience against disinformation and manipulation is crucial. This requires education and awareness, but also the development of new tools for detecting and combating disinformation campaigns.

Logistics as a weapon: New strategies against modern espionage

The systematic monitoring of German supply routes by Russian drones underscores the urgency of a comprehensive response to hybrid threats. Germany must continuously expand its defense capabilities, implementing both technological and organizational measures.

The use of dual-use logistics solutions offers a promising approach to hindering espionage. By cleverly blending civilian and military transport, supply routes can be obscured and reconnaissance hampered. At the same time, decentralized logistics strategies must be developed to minimize the risk of attacks.

International cooperation is crucial for success in the fight against hybrid threats. The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki provides an important platform for coordinating European efforts. Germany should further strengthen its leadership role in this area and contribute to the development of common standards and procedures.

The legal and ethical challenges of hybrid warfare require new approaches and standards. Germany must find a balance between effective protection and upholding democratic values. This is not only a technical but also a societal task that affects all areas of society.

The threat of hybrid warfare is real and will increase in the coming years. Only a comprehensive, coordinated, and adaptable response can enable democratic societies to defend their security and values. The time to act is now, as adversaries are already operating with full intensity in the gray areas of modern conflict.

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