Antimony, a semi-metal – China's new super-weapon: This unknown metal is putting the USA in a tight spot.

How Beijing is blackmailing the global economy with an obscure metal and how an old gold mine in Idaho is supposed to break China's raw materials monopoly.

A previously overlooked metalloid is moving to the center of an escalating resource conflict between the US and China: antimony. While the world is talking about lithium and rare earth elements, this silvery-white element has quietly become a key to national security and a powerful lever in geopolitics. Its importance is fundamental: antimony is not only indispensable for key civilian industries such as flame retardants, car batteries, and solar glass, but also a critical component for modern warfare – from precision munitions to infrared sensors in night-vision devices.

The West's strategic vulnerability is dramatic: China not only controls roughly 60% of global mine production, but also dominates the crucial processing with almost 90%. When Beijing introduced an export licensing regime in September 2024, causing shipments to plummet by 88%, this dependence became a weapon. The global market price for antimony quintupled within a very short time, reaching historic highs of over $40,000 per ton. This show of force triggered an unprecedented response in Washington: With billions of dollars in investments under the Defense Production Act, the reactivation of historic mines like the Stibnite project in Idaho, and new strategic alliances, the US is attempting to break its existential dependence. The struggle for antimony is thus more than a dispute over a single element; it is a prime example of the new era of resource geopolitics, in which control of critical materials determines economic stability and military superiority.

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Antimony in the context of a paradigm shift in raw material geopolitics: A strategic analysis of the new power struggle between the USA and China

When an unknown metal becomes the key to national security

Global competition for raw materials has reached a new dimension. While rare earths and lithium have dominated the headlines for years, another metallic element is increasingly coming into focus in the geopolitical conflict between the United States and China: antimony. This silvery metalloid is not just another piece of the raw materials puzzle in the grand strategy game between the superpowers. Rather, it represents an existential challenge to Western defense capabilities and a fascinating example of how China is increasingly using its raw material dominance as a geopolitical tool.

The dramatic nature of this development becomes clear when looking at the stark figures: China controls approximately 60 percent of global antimony production and also dominates the vast majority of downstream processing and refining. The US, on the other hand, is almost entirely dependent on imports, while its strategic reserves, at only about 1,100 tons, are far below the critical level. In 2023, the United States consumed approximately 23,000 tons of antimony annually, a significant portion of which—around 43 percent—was earmarked for direct military use. Given these figures, the looming national security crisis becomes palpable.

China's response to escalating trade tensions came on September 15, 2024. On that day, the People's Republic introduced a formal export licensing regime for antimony. The effects of this measure were immediately noticeable: In June 2025, China's antimony exports were approximately 88 percent lower than in January of the same year. This is a signal of historic clarity. China is deliberately using this raw material as a weapon—not as a blanket embargo, but as a precise instrument of differentiated export licensing that links geopolitical goals with economic means.

Parallel to this control, the situation on the world markets deteriorated dramatically. The price of antimony skyrocketed to an unprecedented degree. Within two years, the price had almost quintupled. At the end of 2024, antimony in Rotterdam reached all-time highs of approximately US$40,000 per ton, after having been at around US$12,000 per ton at the beginning of 2024. This represents a year-on-year price increase of approximately 250 percent in 2024.

The quiet success story: Industrial versatility without visibility

Antimony is one of those raw materials that is completely underrepresented in the public consciousness. Yet, from the industrial to the military sphere, this element plays a role that can only be described as essential. The breadth of its applications is impressive and explains why its strategic importance extends far beyond mere military considerations.

In civilian applications, antimony is invaluable, primarily as an alloying element. When antimony is combined with lead, it fundamentally alters materials science. Just a few percentage points of this metalloid increase the hardness of lead and improve its casting properties, as antimony alloys expand upon solidification instead of shrinking like pure lead. This property enabled centuries-old printing techniques and remains essential in modern applications. In car batteries, lead always contains small amounts of antimony to ensure the necessary structural integrity. The global automotive and energy storage industries would be inconceivable without this element.

The industrial applications of antimony extend far beyond batteries. In glassmaking, it is an indispensable refiner. It is used to remove bubbles and defects from molten glass and to improve optical quality. Antimony has gained increasing importance, particularly in the solar industry, as it enhances the transparency and light transmission of solar glass modules. With the global expansion of solar energy, the demand for high-quality solar glass has risen exponentially.

The majority of antimony use, however, is in the flame retardant industry. Approximately 30 to 40 percent of the world's antimony production is used to manufacture flame retardants for use in plastics, textiles, and polymers. Antimony trioxide is the most important compound in this process. In combination with halogenated flame retardants, antimony acts as a highly efficient catalyst for fire resistance. This is not just an academic chemistry issue, but one that protects human lives. Electronic devices, from computers to televisions, cable insulation, building materials, and even children's clothing rely on these antimony-based flame retardant applications. A world without this technology would mean exponentially higher fire risks.

The military dimension: Why antimony is essential for national security

When discussing antimony's strategic importance, the military cannot be overlooked. Here, this element becomes much more than just a raw material; it becomes a political lever. Its military applications are diverse and far-reaching. Antimony alloys play a role in ammunition production that is difficult to replace. Hard lead alloys enriched with antimony significantly increase the hardness and dimensional stability of projectiles. This not only improves penetration and accuracy but also enables more consistent ballistics, which is essential for reliable weapons.

In percussion caps and ignition mixtures, antimony(III) sulfide, also known as stibnite, ensures the reliable ignition of the propellant. This is an application where failure rates can lead to catastrophic failures. Furthermore, antimony, in specialized forms, is used extensively in high-frequency electronics and sensor technologies. Indium antimonide is essential for night vision devices, thermal imaging cameras, and infrared sensors used in modern warheads, drones, reconnaissance systems, and air-to-ground communication systems. These are the technologies that define modern warfare.

The spectral sensitivity of these compounds lies precisely in the infrared range, where military sensors operate. A country that does not master this technology is at a significant disadvantage in modern conflict. The figure is revealing: Approximately 18 percent of global antimony demand is directly attributable to military applications. In the context of total US demand of 23,000 tons, this translates to a military requirement in the range of roughly 4,000 to 5,000 tons per year. While this is a smaller share than in industry, given the critical nature of these applications, every ton counts.

China's monolithic hegemony: production, processing and strategic control

China's position in the antimony market is monolithic. It stands out from the competition like a dominant force that overshadows all others. With approximately 60 percent of global mine production, amounting to around 60,000 tons per year, China possesses a production capacity that dwarfs all other countries combined. Global antimony production was estimated at around 100,000 tons in 2024. China alone produces sixty times that amount.

The second point is equally critical for Western strategy: China also dominates the downstream value chain. It's not just the mines that China controls, but also smelting, refining, and processing. Approximately 85 to 90 percent of global antimony refining capacity is in Chinese hands. This means that even antimony ores mined in other countries often have to be transported to China for processing. This is a form of structural dependency that gives the country immense power.

China's continued dominance is reinforced by geographical realities. Tajikistan is the second-largest producer, responsible for roughly 25 to 27 percent of global production, or about 17,000 tons per year. However, Tajikistan is not a Western ally. Historically, relations with China have been intensive, and economic integration is steadily increasing. Myanmar and Russia follow as other significant producers, but these countries are either destabilized by sanctions or politically distant from the West. Bolivia completes the picture of the few non-Chinese producers, but remains a country with volatile political conditions and weak resource management regulations.

The consequence of this reality is depressingly simple: China, Tajikistan, and Russia control roughly 80 to 90 percent of the global antimony value chain. This is not simply a market share; it is a geostrategic blockade. The West cannot simply turn to other countries; there are not enough other countries with significant capacity to alleviate this dependency.

At the same time, pressure on Chinese production is intensifying from within. Stricter environmental regulations are impacting domestic mining. Ore quality is tending to decline, meaning more material must be processed to obtain the same amount of antimony. More intensive controls and stricter enforcement of environmental regulations are making mining more expensive. But instead of offsetting these economic problems with a liberal export policy, the government has done the exact opposite: it has cut off exports.

This was a deliberate strategic decision. The official reason was national security. China argued that antimony is a dual-use material, suitable for both civilian and military applications, and that export controls were necessary to protect national security. The export licensing regime, which came into effect on September 15, 2024, was not formulated as a simple embargo. Instead, a granular licensing system was implemented, allowing Beijing to approve or reject exports on a case-by-case basis. This is a sophisticated instrument that combines flexibility with control.

The American crisis: Dependence and vulnerability

The United States finds itself in a position that could be described as strategically embarrassing. As the world's leading military power, with a technologically advanced and globally active defense industry, this power depends on a material the US does not control. The last commercial antimony mines in America closed decades ago. The US produces virtually no antimony anymore, despite having known reserves of approximately 60,000 tons, which would be obtained primarily as byproducts in later stages of mining.

This dependence is not new, but it has become acute. Historically, stockpiles were sufficient because trade functioned smoothly and China was willing to export antimony. But now, with China's export controls, the system has collapsed. The US strategic reserves, totaling only about 1,100 tons, are enough to cover demand for a few weeks, or at most a few months. This is not just insufficient; it is absurd for a superpower in a time of heightened geopolitical tension.

The realization of this crisis hit Washington with full force in 2024. The response was remarkably swift and decisive. The US activated several strategic levers simultaneously. The first lever was direct: the Defense Production Act was invoked. This is a historic instrument that allows the American government to take direct action to secure the supply of critical materials. Under this authority, substantial funds flowed directly to projects capable of producing or processing antimony. Perpetua Resources Corporation received $59.4 million in 2024 to cover the costs of developing the Stibnite project in Idaho.

The second lever was commercial: A historic five-year contract was signed with the United States Antimony Corporation. This was no small contract. The Defense Logistics Agency, an agency of the U.S. Department of Defense, signed a contract worth $245 million. This is a volume equivalent to 17 times the company's total annual revenue to date.

The third lever was strategic and geopolitical: alliances were strengthened. The United States intensified its cooperation with Australia and Canada to secure alternative supply chains. Australia was a particular focus, not only because of its geographical proximity to the region, but also because of its stability and raw material resources. The Australian ambassador to Washington, Kevin Rudd, played a prominent role in this, helping to compile a list of Australian antimony projects that could be integrated into US supply chains.

The fourth lever was financial and momentous: JPMorgan announced a Security and Resilience Initiative of approximately $1.5 trillion. This is not just about money; it's a deliberate reassessment of private capital's priorities. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon spoke of the nation's dependence on unreliable sources of critical minerals and described the program as a response. This signals that the private sector has recognized the risk and is prepared to allocate capital to diversify supply.

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The Idaho Project: Perpetua Resources and the Historical Resurrection

Perpetua Resources Corporation's Stibnite project is a fascinating historical revival with a modern strategic purpose. Stibnite is not just any mine. It is the United States' historic antimony mine, named for the mineral form of antimony, stibnite. This mine supplied antimony for munitions production during World War II in the fight against Nazi Germany. It opened in 1899 and later closed, demonstrating the site's long history of antimony resources. It was shut down in 1997 when economic factors and a lack of government support made continued operation impossible.

Perpetua Resources has been developing the project since 2011. The company is listed on the Nasdaq (PPTA) and the Toronto Stock Exchange, meaning it is an established, regulated company, not a speculative venture. The plan is geometrically simple yet ambitious: Perpetua aims to bring Stibnite back into operation under modern conditions. The project is projected to produce approximately 450,000 ounces of gold and 3,000 tons of antimony per year. The strong focus on gold is essential for economic viability; without gold production, the project's financial stability would be questionable. Antimony is the target in this crisis-driven economy, but gold is the economic engine.

The deposit size is significant. Proven and probable reserves include approximately 148 million pounds of antimony and more than 6 million ounces of gold. This is a resource that could produce substantial quantities over a 15-year project lifespan. Perpetua estimates that the Stibnite project could meet about 35 percent of US antimony demand during its first six years of production. This is not a complete solution to the American antimony dilemma, but it is a significant step.

The permitting history was lengthy and intensive. Perpetua began formal permitting processes in 2016, nearly ten years ago. U.S. National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) requires comprehensive environmental impact assessments. The Forest Service, as the lead agency, conducted a draft environmental impact assessment in 2020, followed by a supplemental assessment in 2022 and a final assessment in 2024. The process attracted more than 23,000 supporting public comments, indicating that political support for this project truly exists in Idaho's communities.

The breakthrough came in 2025. In January 2025, the Forest Service issued a Record of Decision, paving the way for development. A conditional Notice to Proceed followed in September 2025, officially recognizing that Perpetua had met all requirements. This isn't just a symbol; it's the green light. The company can now proceed with construction as soon as it has provided the necessary financial security.

The financial support has been massive. The Department of Defense has provided more than $80 million to the project. Furthermore, Perpetua is working towards potential financing of approximately $2 billion from the Exim Bank, which would be one of the largest federal loans for a mining project in history. This underscores the national priority assigned to this project.

The company expects commercial production to begin in 2028. This is too late from the perspective of immediate crisis management, but it is still faster than most mining projects would develop, even under typical permitting processes. Perpetua has already begun constructing an antimony stockpile, a symbolic action signaling the company's readiness once production commences.

Another aspect makes this project interesting: environmental restoration. The Stibnite site is a place of historical mining activity with corresponding environmental impacts. The Perpetua project is designed not only to extract antimony and gold but also to remediate these historical contaminations. Plans include reintroducing salmon to their natural spawning grounds, improving water temperatures, and restoring wetlands and stream habitats. This is an example of a modern resource recovery strategy that combines economic goals with environmental responsibility.

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Trigg Minerals: Antimony from Utah and Australia

While Perpetua Resources dominates the American narrative, other companies also play a significant role in this emerging antimony market. Trigg Minerals Limited, a company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), has positioned itself as a player with a presence on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. This is an interesting diversification strategy.

In the United States, Trigg is developing the Antimony Canyon Project in Utah. The project is wholly owned by Trigg and is located where post-World War II geological work by the U.S. Bureau of Mines confirmed scattered antimony mineralization over an area of ​​5 by 3 kilometers. Historical work indicates that the estimated resource target is more than 15 million tonnes with antimony grades between 3 and 15 percent. Recent sampling has shown peak values ​​exceeding 30 percent antimony. The geological conditions, favorable host rocks, and historical mining activity all indicate significant potential for resource expansion through modern exploration methods.

Trigg is preparing for a systematic exploration program. The goal is to confirm historical data, define the full extent of mineralization, and advance the project toward a JORC-compliant mineral resource estimate. JORC compliance is essential; it is the Australian/New Zealand standard for public reporting of exploration results and mineral resource and mineral reserve estimates. This is crucial for investor and regulatory acceptance.

In Australia, the picture is considerably more developed for Trigg. The company owns the Achilles Antimony Project in the province of New South Wales. This includes the Wild Cattle Creek deposit, Australia's highest-grade undeveloped antimony project. A JORC-compliant resource of 1.52 million tonnes of ore is defined at 1.97 percent antimony. This equates to approximately 29,902 tonnes of antimony in the ground. Several drill holes outside the resource have shown very high concentrations of up to 27.6 percent antimony, demonstrating the further potential.

A major advantage of this deposit is that the mineralization begins at the surface and extends to a depth of 300 meters. This is unusually favorable for mining economics, as shallow mineralization is cheaper to extract than deep deposits. Traditional mining wisdom states that shallow deposits mean lower production costs and faster payback times. In addition to antimony, gold and tungsten are also found in the deposit, offering multi-commodity potential.

Trigg plans to increase the resource estimate and submit a new assessment. The strategy is transparent: additional drilling and sampling are intended to increase the resource size and potentially also the average concentration. The Australian project is gaining considerable importance due to geopolitical developments. In November 2024, the US and Australia agreed to intensify their cooperation on raw materials. The US announced it would initiate resource extraction projects worth up to US$8.5 billion, with the White House estimating the value of the resources to be extracted at approximately US$53 billion. This is a massive program with Australia as the preferred partner.

Trigg Minerals currently has a market capitalization of approximately AUD 200 million. The company is traded on the ASX and in Frankfurt. It is not a large company, but it is an established one with real projects and resources in stable jurisdictions.

The United States Antimony Corporation: Integration and National Strategy

A third player deserves attention: the United States Antimony Corporation. This company is already operational. It is not in an exploration or development stage; it is already producing antimony. The company operates smelting plants in Montana and Mexico and is positioning itself as a fully integrated antimony producer outside of China.

The breakthrough for this company came in September 2025, when it secured the $245 million contract with the Defense Logistics Agency. This isn't just a large order; it's a definitive endorsement by the US government that US Antimony is the partner of choice for replenishing the national strategic antimony reserves. The contract is structured as an exclusive five-year agreement, meaning the company is the sole source for these deliveries.

The volume is staggering in the context of the company's previous size. The contract will cover the delivery of antimony metal ingots for the national defense reserve, starting immediately. The material will come from the company's North American smelters, which it claims are the only ones outside of China capable of producing military-grade antimony. Military grade here means that the purity and consistency meet the most stringent requirements of the defense industry.

The company has simultaneously expanded its sourcing efforts, developing supply chains from Bolivia, Australia, and other sources. It has increased its leased land holdings in Alaska to approximately 23,800 acres and secured an option to acquire the former Mohawk mine near Fairbanks. The company has applied for mining permits for properties in the Ester Dome and Stibnite Creek regions. This demonstrates an aggressive strategy not only to process antimony but also to secure raw materials.

Market mechanics: Price volatility and demand projections

The antimony market is undergoing a state of structural transformation. Prices are volatile and trending sharply upwards. This is not simply a speculative bubble; it is a rational response to fundamental supply deficits and increased risk.

At the beginning of 2024, the price was around US$12,000 per ton. By the end of 2024, the price had more than tripled to US$40,000 per ton. This represents a price increase of approximately 250 percent in one year. Market analysts expect prices to continue rising, possibly even exceeding US$40,000 per ton.

The market size itself is impressive. The global antimony market was valued at approximately US$1.01 billion in 2023. By 2024, it was expected to grow to approximately US$1.08 billion. Analysts project that the market will reach approximately US$1.78 billion by 2032, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 6.5 percent. This is significantly faster than GDP growth, indicating that the antimony intensity of the global economy is increasing.

Geographically, the Asia-Pacific region dominates the antimony market, accounting for approximately 64 percent of the market share in 2023. This reflects China's dominant production position. The US market is projected to reach approximately US$106 million by 2032, driven by growing demand for OSHA-regulated flame-retardant clothing and military applications.

Geopolitical implications and long-term scenarios

The antimony situation is a microcosm of the larger geopolitical shifts taking place worldwide. It illustrates several key points about the future international order.

First, it shows that the US must seriously reduce its dependence on China for critical raw materials. This is no longer negotiable. Dependence creates vulnerability, and vulnerability leads to increased power for the adversary. If China can tighten the screw, China will tighten it. This is a harsh reality of international politics.

Secondly, it shows that raw materials are a means of exerting pressure. They represent economic pressure, military pressure, and diplomatic pressure. The countries that control these raw materials have power. The countries that depend on them have weakness. The US understands this and acts accordingly.

Third, it shows that the US cannot achieve complete self-sufficiency quickly. Even with massive investments, it will take years for Stibnite to become operational. Antimony Resources in Utah is still in its early stages. Time is a factor. This is why diversification with Australia and Canada is essential.

Fourth, it shows that private capital can be moved by public priorities. JPMorgan's $1.5 trillion initiative is not altruistic; it is rational. But it demonstrates that when the government clarifies its priorities, private capital follows. This is an important point for future industrial policy.

Fifth, it shows that autocratic states can weaponize raw materials with one hand. This is an asymmetric advantage for China. Beijing can arbitrarily issue or deny export licenses. A democratic society like the US does not have this flexibility without risking significant internal and external criticism. This is a structural disadvantage that the US must compensate for through other means.

In the long term, the antimony market will strive for a return to normalcy, but with higher prices than before the Chinese crisis. This is because new production capacities, particularly from US Antimony, Perpetua, and potentially others, will incur significant costs. Western mining is expensive; Chinese mining was cheap. The new Western sources cannot compete at Chinese costs; they will have to offer higher prices. This will increase the overall cost of antimony products.

The question is how quickly the adaptation will occur and whether society will be able to absorb the higher costs or innovate. Some applications, particularly in flame retardancy, could be switched to alternatives if they become available. Other applications, especially in the military sector, cannot be replaced, at least not quickly. This creates a segmentation of the market.

From raw material to weapon: Antimony and the future of Western independence

Antimony is a fascinating case study of the new realities of international commodity policy. It is a material largely unknown to the public, yet fundamentally supports the functioning of the modern economy, particularly modern defense capabilities. China's control of this material and its arbitrary use of this control as a geopolitical tool marks a turning point in US-China relations.

The American response is crucial. It is swift, it is deliberate, and it seeks to operate on multiple levels: direct government investment through the Defense Production Act authority, commercial contracts with private producers, strategic alliances with allied nations, and private capital allocation from major financial institutions. This is a coordinated effort that demonstrates the US government's understanding of the stakes.

The Stibnite project is symbolic of this effort. A historic mine is being resurrected, one that served as a national resource in earlier times of strategic threat. This is happening again, this time with modern technology and under conditions of global supply chain security. It is a return to the strategic resource management approach practiced by the US during World War II.

The question is not whether the US will develop an antimony supply solution. The infrastructure is there; the funding is there; the political support is there. The question is how quickly it can happen and how costly the transition will be. This will determine not only the antimony market but also the wider trajectory of critical Western mineral independence. In a world of finite resources and concentrated control by authoritarian states, this is a battle that will define the geopolitical landscape for years to come. Antimony, a silvery-white metalloid, has become a material that moves empires.

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Chairman SME Connect Defense Working Group

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I would be happy to serve as your personal advisor.

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