ChatGPT overtakes Microsoft Copilot: AI analysis of a growing discrepancy – Image: Xpert.Digital
Microsoft's AI strategy under pressure: ChatGPT has the advantage
AI race: Why ChatGPT is outperforming Microsoft Copilot
An internal Microsoft presentation reveals a remarkable development in the AI landscape: While ChatGPT is experiencing continuous growth, Microsoft Copilot's user base is stagnating. This development raises questions about market dynamics in the AI sector and has far-reaching implications for Microsoft's strategy.
Microsoft Copilot is currently based primarily on OpenAI's Large Language Models (LLMs), especially GPT-4. GPT-4 is used as the central language model in various Copilot versions—such as those for Microsoft 365, Windows, Edge, and Bing. The integration of Microsoft Graph also leverages enterprise data and contextual information to personalize responses.
Since the beginning of 2025, the new OpenAI o1 model, "Think Deeper," has also been available to Copilot users. This feature, originally reserved for Copilot Pro subscribers, is explicitly based on the OpenAI o1 model and is now free for all users. It enables deeper analyses and structured answers to more complex questions.
Microsoft is currently working to reduce its reliance on OpenAI. It is already developing its own AI models and testing alternatives such as DeepSeek, Meta Llama, and xAI Grok to achieve greater flexibility and independence in the long term. However, OpenAI's GPT-4 is currently the primary model behind Copilot, supplemented by newer models like o1 for specific functions.
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The sobering figures
At an annual executive meeting in March 2025, Microsoft's CFO, Amy Hood, presented a chart comparing the growth of both platforms. The result was sobering: While Copilot stagnated at around 20 million weekly users, ChatGPT grew steadily and now reaches approximately 400 million weekly users. This means that Microsoft Copilot only reaches about 5% of ChatGPT's user base.
These figures are particularly worrying for Microsoft, considering that there are around 1.5 billion Windows users worldwide, of whom apparently only slightly more than 1% regularly use Copilot – despite its deep integration into the operating system. ChatGPT, on the other hand, recorded a new visitor record of 2.9 billion hits in June 2024 alone.
Rapid growth at ChatGPT
ChatGPT's growth momentum is impressive. While it took nine months to grow from 100 million weekly active users in November 2023 to 200 million in August 2024, this number doubled again in the following six months. By February 2025, the platform had grown to 400 million weekly users. This development underscores the increasing acceptance and reach of ChatGPT across various user groups.
Strategic importance for Microsoft
The comparison between Copilot and ChatGPT is of particular interest for several reasons:
Massive investments and integration
Microsoft has invested billions in AI development in recent years. The company has integrated Copilot into almost all of its products – from Windows 11 and Microsoft 365 to the Edge browser. In addition, it launched dedicated Copilot+ PCs and even introduced a dedicated Copilot key on keyboards. This comprehensive strategy should have resulted in a broad user base.
Financial ties with OpenAI
The situation is particularly delicate because Microsoft is also one of the largest investors in OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT. Through these investments, Microsoft has secured exclusive access to OpenAI's models, which are also used in Copilot. The fact that its own partner's competing product is now more successful presents the company with a strategic dilemma.
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Reasons for the discrepancy
The reasons for the differing success of the two platforms are multifaceted:
User acceptance and added value
A key problem appears to be users' willingness to pay for AI features. Microsoft announced a 30% price increase for Microsoft 365 at the end of 2024, justifying it with new AI features. This price increase was met with criticism from many users, especially since the added value of the AI features is not readily apparent to many.
Quality and user-friendliness
Critical reports indicate that the results produced by Copilot are often perceived as experimental or of low quality. The aggressive integration into existing products is sometimes seen as intrusive, further reducing user acceptance.
Different strengths
While Copilot primarily excels in the Microsoft environment and excels in office management, ChatGPT is valued for its flexibility and adaptability across various contexts. This versatility could be a decisive factor in ChatGPT's greater success.
Microsoft's reactions and countermeasures
Microsoft has responded to the challenges with various strategies:
Personnel restructuring
Microsoft has hired Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of Google DeepMind and former CEO of the AI startup InflectionAI, to reduce its reliance on OpenAI and redesign Copilot. Suleyman is focusing on the "session success rate" (SSR) as a key metric for improving Copilot.
New features and free offers
In January 2025, Microsoft introduced “Think Deeper,” a feature based on OpenAI’s o1 model, which is available free of charge to all Copilot users. Additionally, new features for Copilot were announced at the company’s 50th anniversary celebration, including improved proactivity and action capabilities.
Focus on business applications
Microsoft is increasingly emphasizing the business benefits of Copilot. According to its October 2024 quarterly report, the number of daily users of Microsoft 365 Copilot more than doubled compared to the previous quarter, and almost 70% of Fortune 500 companies are now using Microsoft 365 Copilot.
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Why the comparison is so interesting
The competition between ChatGPT and Copilot is of particular importance for several reasons:
Groundbreaking for the AI landscape
This development shows that technological integration alone is not enough to convince users. Despite massive investments and integration into widely used products, Microsoft cannot keep pace with ChatGPT's growth. This could be an indicator of how the AI market will develop in the future.
Strategic Dilemma for Microsoft
Microsoft finds itself in a complex situation: As an investor in OpenAI, the company benefits from the success of ChatGPT, while its own product, Copilot, directly competes with it. This dual role leads to interesting strategic considerations and could influence the partnership in the long term.
Question about the right business model
This comparison raises fundamental questions about the business model for AI products. Should they be offered as standalone services, like ChatGPT, or integrated into existing products, as with Microsoft? The differing success rates of both approaches could be trendsetting for the entire industry.
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AI Future: What Microsoft needs to learn from ChatGPT
The stagnant user growth of Microsoft Copilot, compared to the continuous growth of ChatGPT, poses a significant challenge to Microsoft's AI strategy. Despite massive investments and extensive integration into existing products, the company seems to be struggling to convince users of its AI assistant.
This development highlights that in the AI industry, not only technological performance is crucial, but also factors such as user-friendliness, perceived added value, and a compelling business model. The competition between these two platforms will significantly influence how the market for AI assistants develops in the coming years and what strategies other companies will pursue.
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