The Great Transformation: The end of the internet economic era with 3 to 5 million lost jobs?

The “Faster Horses Problem”: Why your job is as endangered today as that of a farrier was 100 years ago

The story of the greatest economic upheaval of the modern era cannot be captured in numbers, but only understood through its logic. When Henry Ford put the first moving assembly line into operation in 1913, he not only changed automobile production – he heralded the end of an economic era that for centuries had been based on a single driving force: the horse.

The parallel to today's artificial intelligence is striking. Just as back then, we are faced with a technology that doesn't improve existing processes, but fundamentally replaces them. When people today ask for "faster software" or "more efficient algorithms," they fall into the same trap as those who once wanted "faster horses." Both fail to understand that true innovation doesn't optimize the old, but renders it obsolete.

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The foundation of an entire civilization collapsed

The invisible power of the horse industry

Early 20th-century America was a horse economy in the truest sense of the word. The 25 million horses and mules that reached their historical peak in 1915 were more than just a means of transportation. They formed the backbone of a complex economic structure that encompassed millions of jobs and sustained entire industries.

The extent of this dependence only becomes clear upon closer inspection. One in five American horses required daily food, water, and care. Haymaking alone employed hundreds of thousands of farmers who produced fodder for these animals on roughly one-third of America's arable land. In New York City, 120,000 horses transported people and goods through the streets every day.

An economic system disappears overnight

The speed of change was breathtaking. Between 1915 and 1960, the American horse population plummeted from 25 million to just 3 million animals—a decline of 88 percent in less than half a century. With every horse that disappeared, a piece of the old economic order vanished.

Entire professions became obsolete overnight. Cart drivers who had transported goods through cities for decades lost their livelihoods. Farriers, whose craft had remained unchanged since the Middle Ages, suddenly found themselves without orders. Stable hands, carriage builders, saddlers – an entire value chain dissolved.

The transformation was particularly dramatic in the cities. Broadway in New York, once lined with shops selling harnesses, saddles, and carriages, was transformed within just a few years into a street full of car dealerships, gas stations, and repair shops. Where horse manure had been the biggest environmental problem in 1910, the first traffic jams caused by motorized vehicles now appeared.

The invention of modern work

Henry Ford's true revolution

Ford's real achievement wasn't the invention of the automobile – that had existed since the 1880s. His revolution lay in the reinvention of work itself. When he put the first moving assembly line into operation at his Highland Park factory on October 7, 1913, he changed not only production, but the very nature of human activity.

The numbers speak for themselves. The time required to assemble a Model T after switching to assembly line technology dropped from 12.5 hours to just 93 minutes – a 33-fold increase in productivity.

By 1926, the production of a car required only 53 working hours instead of the original 1,776 hours in 1908, taking into account all work steps including supplier and manual processes and not just final assembly.

This was more than a technical improvement – ​​it was the birth of mass production.

The price of progress

Ford recognized early on that his revolution came at a high social price. Assembly line work reduced human activity to monotonous manual tasks. Ford himself described his goal as "reducing the demands on the worker's thinking and minimizing his movements.".

The solution was as brilliant as it was controversial: in 1914, Ford doubled the minimum wage in his factories from $2.50 to $5 a day. This not only created loyal workers but also customers with purchasing power. An assembly line worker could now afford a Model T – a radical idea for a time when automobiles were luxury goods.

The emergence of a new economic order

The automotive industry created a net increase of 6.9 million jobs in the USA between 1910 and 1950 – eleven percent of the total 1950 workforce. These new jobs encompassed not only manufacturing, but entire sectors: gas stations, repair shops, parking garages, road construction, and a completely new infrastructure for motorized traffic.

The timing was crucial. The new jobs were created in parallel with the disappearance of the old ones. There was a seamless transition, allowing people to move from the horse industry to the automotive industry. A carriage maker could become a car mechanic, a horse trader a car salesman.

The invisible legend of the faster horses

A myth is born

The famous quote, “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses,” is one of the most persistent myths in economic history—and also one of the most dangerous. Because Henry Ford never said those words.

The earliest documented mention of this quote is not from Ford himself, but from John McNeece, a cruise ship designer, in 1999. Quote Investigator, a reputable source for verifying quotes, could find no authentic connection to Ford. In fact, Ford's documented statements show the opposite: he consistently emphasized the importance of understanding the customer.

The truth behind the legend

Ford was not a visionary loner who ignored customers. On the contrary, his success was based on a deep understanding of the needs of his time. People genuinely wanted faster, more reliable, and cleaner means of transportation. Early automobile advertisements promised precisely that: “Forget about a horse and save the cost, care, and worry of horse ownership.”.

Ford didn't deliver what nobody wanted, but what everyone needed but couldn't yet articulate. Automobiles solved the problems of horses: they didn't smell, they didn't leave manure, they didn't get sick, and they only ate while moving. It was an evolution of the solution, not a revolution of the need.

The danger of misquoting

The myth of “faster horses” is more dangerous today than ever because it perpetuates a false lesson: ignoring customers. Modern companies fall into the same trap when they develop AI solutions without understanding their users' actual problems. They believe that innovative technology justifies disregarding customer needs.

The true lesson of Ford's success is the opposite: innovation succeeds when you understand people's underlying needs and develop entirely new solutions for them. Ford didn't revolutionize transportation by ignoring his customers' desires, but by fulfilling them better than any horse technology ever could.

The AI ​​revolution follows the same pattern

The new transformation begins

Today we are experiencing a parallel situation to the horse-drawn-automobile revolution, only with even greater speed and reach. Artificial intelligence is not just replacing physical labor, as it did horses back then, but is also systematically intervening in mental tasks for the first time. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI could automate the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs.

The figures are dramatic: 27 percent of current working hours in Europe and 30 percent in the US could be automated by 2030. Around two-thirds of all jobs are already subject to some degree of AI automation.

The speed of change

The AI ​​revolution is happening at a speed that surpasses even the automotive revolution. Between January and June 2025 alone, 77,999 jobs in the technology sector were directly lost to AI – that's 491 people per day. Thirty percent of US companies have already replaced workers with AI tools like ChatGPT.

Areas particularly affected include administration, customer service, and data processing. More than 7.5 million data entry jobs will disappear by 2027. In customer service, 20 percent of jobs are at risk, and administrative support will shrink by over 600,000 positions.

New jobs are being created – but not as expected

The World Economic Forum forecasts a net increase of 78 million jobs worldwide by 2030. While 92 million jobs will be lost due to automation, 170 million new ones are expected to be created. These figures sound reassuring, but they mask a fundamental problem: the skills gap.

77 percent of new AI jobs require a master's degree. The gap between disappearing and emerging jobs is much wider than during the automotive revolution. A data entry clerk cannot simply become an AI engineer without years of retraining.

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The critical difference to history

The speed problem

The crucial difference to historical transformations lies in the timescale. While the horse-to-car transformation unfolded over decades, offering a seamless transition, the AI ​​revolution is taking place in years or even months. By 2030, 29 percent of the workforce will need to be retrained in their current roles, while 19 percent will have to embark on entirely new careers.

Microsoft studies show that AI is gaining a foothold particularly in language- and analysis-intensive professions. Translators, historians, sales representatives, and radio presenters are among the professions with the highest AI penetration. At the same time, physical activities such as nursing, skilled trades, and construction work remain largely unaffected.

The impact on various areas

Finance and accounting are already undergoing a fundamental transformation. JPMorgan is automating routine banking functions, with 20 percent of analyst roles at risk by 2030. In product data management, fully automated workflows are emerging that handle PDF linking, CSV conversions, and product optimization without human intervention.

Customer service centers that once employed 500 people are shrinking to 50 AI supervisors. Accounting and finance departments are automating document extraction, matching, and posting. A similar pattern is emerging in every area: a few highly skilled specialists overseeing AI systems that are doing the work of hundreds.

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Strategies for the new world of work

Retraining as a survival strategy

Twenty million US workers will need to retrain for new careers or learn how to use AI within the next three years. Eighty-three percent of experts agree: Demonstrating AI skills will give current employees more job security than those who don't.

The most sought-after skills of the future are clearly defined. Analytical thinking tops the list (important to 69 percent of employers), followed by resilience and flexibility (67 percent) and creative thinking. Technological competence, particularly in dealing with AI and cybersecurity, is becoming increasingly indispensable.

Hybrid working models as a solution

The future lies not in the complete replacement of humans, but in hybrid models. AI takes over repetitive tasks, while humans solve complex problems that require empathy, creativity, and critical thinking. This collaboration can increase productivity without eliminating the human element.

New professional fields are already emerging: AI trainers, prompt engineers, AI ethics officers, and specialists in human-AI collaboration. These roles require both technical understanding and human skills – a combination that AI alone cannot provide.

Companies in transition

The transformation of business models

45 percent of the companies surveyed plan to fundamentally realign their business models with AI. Two-thirds are specifically looking for specialists with specific AI skills, and 77 percent want to launch comprehensive retraining programs.

Microsoft is leading this transformation with AI agents that independently perform tasks: answering customer inquiries, finding errors in the supply chain, or filling out delivery slips. These “new employees” work 24/7, continuously learn, and gradually take on more complex tasks.

The role of managers

Business leaders face the challenge of simultaneously reducing costs and developing employees. Successful navigation requires immediate retraining initiatives, strategies for human-AI collaboration, and coordinated public-private talent development programs.

The balance between automation and human oversight is particularly important. Experts warn against granting AI too much decision-making freedom in critical areas such as justice, medicine, or financial advice. Machines cannot assess their own safety – a fundamental problem in the use of AI.

The societal impact

Inequality is increasing

The AI ​​revolution does not affect everyone equally. 58.87 million women in the US workforce hold positions heavily exposed to AI automation, compared to 48.62 million men. Lower-paid workers are 14 times more likely to be affected than highly skilled professionals.

Young workers are being hit particularly hard by the transformation. According to a Stanford study, employment among 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-intensive jobs has declined by six percent, while it has risen by nine percent in fields with low AI use. Experience seems to offer protection against AI competition.

Economic opportunities and risks

McKinsey estimates the long-term potential of AI at $4.4 trillion in additional productivity growth. AI chatbots alone could generate $8 billion in annual business savings. These enormous sums demonstrate the transformative potential of the technology.

At the same time, new risks arise. The concentration of AI development in a few large corporations could lead to monopolies. Data protection and security become critical factors, as AI systems rely on enormous amounts of data.

Lessons from history for the future

Innovation replaces, it does not improve

The most important lesson from the horse-to-car revolution is clear: true innovation doesn't optimize the old, it makes it obsolete. Companies that are still asking for "more efficient Excel spreadsheets" or "better text modules" are overlooking the transformative potential of AI.

The winners will be those who use AI to fundamentally reorganize work. Instead of digitizing processes, they should reinvent workflows. Instead of replacing people with machines, they should create human-machine teams that achieve more than either alone.

The courage to transform

Like Ford back then, today's companies must have the courage to radically question established processes. The companies that will be successful are those that are willing to rethink their entire work organization – not just automate individual tasks.

History shows that technological revolutions are inevitable. Those who adapt thrive. Those who cling to the past will end up like the horse breeders who tried to breed faster horses when the automobile was already changing the world.

The turning point has been reached

We stand today at a similar turning point to America in 1913. The AI ​​revolution is unstoppable, but its impact can still be shaped. The question is no longer whether it will come, but how we use it – and whether we are ready to make the right decisions in time.

The story of horses teaches us that transformation is possible, but it requires courage, vision, and a willingness to let go of the familiar. Those who understand this lesson will be the architects of the new world of work. The others—like the horses of old—will only be found in museums.

The car revolution: How millions of horse jobs disappeared

The total US labor force in 1900 comprised only about 24 million people (those aged 10 and over with employment). By 1920, this number had grown to approximately 40.5 million.

A realistic estimate of the jobs lost in the horse industry due to the automotive revolution is 1-2 million direct jobs and at most 3-5 million including all indirect effects.

The scope of the horse industry

horse population

• 1900: approximately 21.5 million horses and mules
• 1915: Peak at 25 million horses
• 1960: only 3 million horses left (85% decline)

Direct employment in the horse industry

• 1890: 13,800 companies in carriage manufacturing
• 1920: only 90 such companies remained
• Teamsters: from 120,000 (1870) to 368,000 (1890)
• Tramway workers: from 5,100 (1870) to 37,000 (1890)
• Carriage manufacturing industry in 1890: approximately 90,000 workers

Realistic estimate of lost jobs

Based on available historical data, actual employment in the horse industry around 1920 can be estimated at approximately 1.4 to 1.5 million direct jobs. These included:

• Teamsters and teamsters: ~500,000
• Tram workers: ~100,000
• Carriage makers: ~50,000
• Farriers and blacksmiths: ~100,000
• Stable workers and caretakers: ~200,000
• Feed traders and producers: ~300,000
• Other horse-related services: ~200,000

Timeline of the transformation

The transformation did not happen suddenly, but over 40 years (1920-1960). The horse population remained stable until 1920 and only then began to decline continuously.

Positive job development through automobiles

At the same time, between 1910 and 1950 the automotive industry created 7.5 million new jobs and destroyed only 623,000 existing ones – a net gain of 6.9 million jobs, which was 11% of the total US workforce in 1950.

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