Published on: February 21, 2025 / update from: February 21, 2025 - Author: Konrad Wolfenstein
Splinteret Danger and economic uncertainty in the United States: A comprehensive analysis of the key factors 2025 - Image: Xpert.digital
USA 2025: Economic transformations and macroeconomic risks in focus
Between growth and uncertainty: the economic situation of the USA at an overview
The economic landscape of the United States in 2025 is characterized by a complex mixture of structural transformations, political uncertainties and macroeconomic risks. While the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) with an annualized rate of 2.8 % in the third quarter of 2024 showed stable, recent developments indicate an erosion of fundamental data. This report analyzes the driving forces of current uncertainty, whereby the focus is on the interaction between consumer behavior, technology markets, monetary political framework and geopolitical tensions.
Consumer dynamics and retail crisis: Walmart as a canaries in the coalemine
The retail giant Walmart acts as a seismographic indicator of consumer mood. The recent quarterly figures reveal a paradoxical situation: Despite comparable sales growth of 4.9 % in the Christmas quarter 2024, the company forecast only a sales increase of 3–4 % for the 2026 financial year. This discrepancy between current performance and future expectations can be explained by three factors:
- Inflation -related loss of purchasing power: In January 2025, consumer prices rose more than expected at 3.0 % annually, with basic foods (egg prices +53 %) and insurance costs burden household budgets.
- Credit clips: The Federal Reserve frozen its key interest rates at 4.25–4.50 %, which drives the refinancing costs for consumer loans.
- Commercial risks: The tariffs threatened by the Trump administration to Chinese and Mexican imports could further accelerate the price spiral.
The bankruptcy of the Fortever 21 fashion chain - with planned closures of 200 branches - underlines the structural crisis of the inpatient retail. While online sales at Walmart rose by 20 %, traditional business models are fighting with falling margins and changing buying behavior. Analysts refer to a “retail Darwinism”, in which only omnichannel-capable companies survive.
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Technology sector: Between AI euphoria and regulatory disruption
The tech industry shows a split picture in 2025. On the one hand, companies such as Nvidia and Alphabet are driving the commercial application of generative AI, on the other hand, established players suffer from declining profits. Meta Platforms and Microsoft clearly missed recent winning expectations, which indicates satiety effects in core markets.
The financial imbalance of X (formerly Twitter) under Elon Musk illustrates the risk of exhilarated platform strategies. Despite massive cost reductions (UA by automating content moderation), user growth stagnates at 300 million "Monthly Active Users" (monthly active users), while advertising revenues have halved. Musk's parallel negotiations on the acquisition of Tikok raise questions about the strategic coherence: The integration of a curated video platform into the X ecosystem could provoke regulatory antitrust concerns.
At the regulatory level, the references to a fragmentation of the digital inland market are condensed. The planned sale of Tikkok to US investors-possibly with the involvement of Oracle as a data trustee-reflects the increasing polarization between Chinese and American tech interests. Experts warn of a "Splinternet" that undermines global scale effects.
A splitperet describes the fragmentation of the global internet into smaller, isolated networks, often due to regional, political, economic or regulatory reasons. This division means that the open, globally connected internet disintegrates into a collection of separate networks that are controlled by governments or companies.
Examples of Splinternet practices:
- China's "Big Firewall": a strongly censored and controlled Internet ecosystem.
- Russia's “sovereign internet”: efforts to create a Russian Internet independent of the global network.
Inflation and monetary policy dilemma: the Fed in the crossfire
The US Federal Reserve faces a trilemmatic conflict of goals between price stability, economic growth and political pressure. Although the core PCE inflation is well above the 2 % goal at 2.7 %, the Trump administration calls for aggressive interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy.
Economists identify three persistent herds of inflation:
- Wage price spiral: The minimum wage increase to $ 18/h in 20 states drives service costs.
- Energy costs: The reintroduction of fracking restrictions has led at $ 95/barrel.
- Trading Protectionism: The 10 %special tariffs on Chinese electronic imports are reflected in consumer prices.
The Federal Reserve reacts with an asymmetrical reaction framework: While further interest rate increases are excluded, you only plan moderate reductions from Q3 2025. This attitude is supported by the labor market - the unemployment rate remains at 3.8 % - but carries risks of overheating.
Geopolitical risks and trade policy volatility
Donald Trump's re -election has destabilized the 21st century trade architecture. Central measures include:
- Section 232-inches from 25 % to steel and 10 % on aluminum imports.
- Termination of the USMCA agreement with new negotiations on "American automotive production".
- Export controls for high technology to allies of the BRI initiative.
This policy leads to delivery chain relocations, as the 12 %increase in the nearshoring activities in Mexico shows. However, industrial associations warn of loss of productivity: the relocalized production is 23 % more expensive than Asian production on average.
In the technology area, the system competition escalates with China. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) blocked Chinese investors in 2024 47, while at the same time US cloud providers lose access to the Chinese market.
Resilience through diversification
The economic uncertainty of the United States in 2025 arises from the mutual dependence of overheated financial markets., Structural industry transformations and geopolitical instrumentalization of economic policy tools. Companies react with regional diversification (65 % of S&P 500 companies plan production relocations) and AI-based efficiency increase (average productivity gains of 18 % in production).
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