The Caribbean powder keg: Is a US invasion imminent? The end of patience: Why China is withdrawing from Venezuela and Iran is filling the void.

Shadow war in the Caribbean: Between military threats and the fight for world order

The Caribbean has once again become the stage for a geopolitical show of force the likes of which the region hasn't seen in decades. With the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's most modern aircraft carrier, and a massive naval force off the coast of Venezuela, the United States under the Trump administration is sending an unmistakable signal. Officially, Washington declares this buildup a necessary strike against "narco-terrorists" and the international drug trade. But anyone who looks behind the official pronouncements will recognize a far more complex game of chess, one that involves much more than just seized cocaine.

The true driving force behind this escalation lies in a fundamental realignment of spheres of influence. It concerns the revival of the Monroe Doctrine in a more aggressive form, already referred to internally as the "Donroe Doctrine." The goal is to defend US hegemony in the Western Hemisphere against the growing presence of external powers such as China, Russia, and Iran without compromise. At the same time, Venezuela's immense but untapped oil reserves—the largest in the world—are once again becoming the focus of strategic US interests, with the aim of dominating global energy markets in the long term.

The following article analyzes the profound background of this conflict. It sheds light on Venezuela's tragic economic collapse from the wealthiest country in South America to a "failed state," the crumbling alliance with China, the dangerous military rapprochement with Iran, and the discrepancy between the drug narrative and Washington's actual geopolitical motives. We stand at a crossroads where it will be decided whether Venezuela remains an isolated pariah or becomes the spark for a new imperial strategy by the USA.

Venezuela in the geopolitical spotlight: The true motives behind the American military deployment

The current confrontation between the United States and Venezuela is characterized by a complex interplay of motives that extend far beyond the drug-fighting goals officially communicated by the Trump administration. With the deployment of the world's most powerful aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, and a host of other warships, Washington has established a military presence in the Caribbean unprecedented since Operation Uphold Democracy in Haiti in 1994. This escalation is justified as a fight against drug terrorism, but the economic and geopolitical realities tell a different story.

The promotion of a new Monroe Doctrine, internally referred to as the Donroe Doctrine, makes it clear that the Trump administration aims to restore an exclusive American sphere of influence in Latin America. This strategy is not only directed at Venezuela, but at a comprehensive realignment of regional power relations, in which the United States seeks to assert its historical dominance against rising competitors, above all China and Russia.

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• World's largest oil reserves: Venezuela's economic situation between crisis paralysis and strategic realignment

The vanished oil production: From petro-state to failed state

To adequately understand Venezuela's current situation, it is essential to consider the country's dramatic deindustrialization. Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at 303 billion barrels. These reserves consist primarily of heavy crude oil, which can only be extracted and refined using specialized technologies. A country that was one of the wealthiest in Latin America until the 1990s has transformed into a failed state in just two decades.

Oil production, which reached a historic peak of approximately 3,453,000 barrels per day in 1997, has shrunk to a mere 1,132,000 barrels per day by October 2025. This represents a decline of roughly two-thirds. In 2013, when Nicolás Maduro assumed power following the death of Hugo Chávez, production was still at 2.5 million barrels per day. The reasons for this collapse lie not in resource availability, but in a fundamental series of declines involving state governance, systematic mismanagement, and crises exacerbated by external sanctions.

The origins of this decline date back to 2002, when then-President Hugo Chávez, in response to a strike, dismissed approximately 19,000 specialists and technicians from the state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA). They were replaced by political loyalists who lacked the necessary expertise for the highly complex processes of oil production and refining. This personnel sabotage of the oil industry marked the beginning of a long downward spiral. Revenues generated from oil sales were not reinvested to modernize the technical infrastructure, but instead flowed into social programs and prestigious projects that offered a high political profile in the short term, but failed to create a sustainable foundation for economic development.

With the massive collapse of oil prices from 2014 to 2016, the state's primary source of revenue systematically collapsed. Venezuela no longer had the foreign exchange reserves to secure necessary imports. The shortages worsened dramatically. Food, medicine, and basic necessities became scarce. Power outages became commonplace. Simultaneously, starting in 2015 and intensifying from 2019 onward under Donald Trump's first term, the US imposed sanctions on the oil sector, individuals, and companies. These sanctions cut off funding for essential spare parts and technical upgrades, significantly exacerbating the downward spiral.

One particularly noteworthy aspect is the long-term dependence Maduro has built up on external partners. Venezuela's gross domestic product has collapsed from approximately US$372.6 billion in 2012 to an estimated US$97.1 billion in 2023. This means that real per capita income has decreased by over 70 percent. The poverty rate has risen to around 96 percent of the population, while hyperinflation, which briefly reached 130,000 percent in 2018, has decreased in recent years but was still around 49 percent in 2024 and is projected to reach 71.65 percent in 2025.

China as a silent force: From investment to strategic withdrawal

China's role in Venezuela is one of the most fascinating economic aspects of this crisis. China has become Venezuela's largest creditor and primary buyer of crude oil. At the height of Sino-Venezuelan cooperation, Beijing linked strategic infrastructure investments with commodity purchase agreements. China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), a major state-owned enterprise, became a direct investor in Venezuelan oil projects. China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp. (CASIC) also participates indirectly in the oil trade through a green tariff channel to China.

Venezuela's national debt to China is substantial. In 2020, the Maduro government and Chinese banks agreed to a grace period for debts amounting to approximately $19 billion. These agreements were part of a comprehensive strategic partnership, which Xi Jinping described as an "all-weather alliance." China offered not only lines of credit but also technical assistance in refining Venezuela's heavy crude oil.

But this Chinese generosity has its limits. With the tightening of sanctions and the massive decline in oil production, China has gradually reduced its investments. Beijing halted the delivery of military equipment to Venezuela in 2023, as documented by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The country continues to import Venezuelan oil, but through intermediaries who declare the oil as being of Malaysian origin to circumvent US sanctions. In September 2025, China signaled support for Venezuela, but this is limited to verbal solidarity and trade agreements for some 400 product categories, without substantial military or financial assistance.

China's restraint is strategically calculated. China has recognized that a military confrontation with the US over Venezuela would be disproportionately expensive and that Beijing is geographically too far away to provide effective military assistance. Instead, China is relying on economic soft power. This is a sign of the global limits of Chinese power: despite its economic strength, China cannot counter the US military superiority in its traditional sphere of influence. The fact that China's creditor position in Venezuela is weakening and that Beijing has failed to reach an agreement on a comprehensive new debt moratorium demonstrates that China, too, is gradually withdrawing economically from Venezuela.

The Iranian and Russian leverage: Military presence instead of capital

While China is increasingly withdrawing from military action, Iran and Russia have forged a military alliance with Venezuela. In 2022, Venezuela signed a twenty-year military partnership agreement with Iran. This agreement includes the transfer of drones, missile technology, and operational training. Shahed-131 combat drones are assembled and manufactured at El Libertador Air Base in Maracay under direct Iranian supervision. These drones are the same models used by Russia in Ukraine and by Iran in attacks on Israel.

The Venezuelan navy has also received Iranian CM-90 anti-ship missiles and Zolfaghar-class missile boats. Under Iranian direction, Hezbollah networks are collaborating with Venezuelan intelligence to coordinate logistical support, paramilitary recruitment, and sanctions evasion. This demonstrates that, despite its own economic weaknesses, Iran is interested in Venezuela as an operational base for projecting power just hours from the US mainland.

Russia plays a similar role, offering technical expertise and intellectual support. Individual Russian politicians have publicly speculated about deploying nuclear weapons in Venezuela. However, Russia's ability to provide Venezuela with material support is significantly limited by the war in Ukraine. While both Moscow and Beijing are planning to build a military base on the Venezuelan coast, these are long-term strategic projects rather than immediate responses to the current crisis.

Overall, this means that Venezuela is playing a kind of alliance-line game between competing powers, with the balance of power dramatically skewed in favor of the United States. Iran provides military capability, China offers economic support (to a decreasing extent), and Russia provides backing through its veto power in the UN Security Council. But none of these powers can offset the immediate military superiority of the US in the Caribbean.

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Drug trafficking: A symptom, not a cause

The Trump administration justifies its military presence and aggressive operations against alleged drug-smuggling boats as part of the fight against cocaine trafficking. This is a credible justification from a domestic political perspective, as the fight against drugs enjoys broad political support in the US. However, it is important to realistically assess Venezuela's objective role in the global drug trade.

Venezuela does not produce cocaine on a large scale. The country also does not cultivate coca to any significant degree. Rather, the flow of cocaine through Venezuela consists of Colombian cocaine being transported across the land border into Venezuela and then exported via its longer Caribbean coastline. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs, the primary flow of cocaine into the United States in 2023 and 2024 was mainly via Pacific routes through Mexican cartels, not through Venezuela.

However, Venezuela and Iran have indeed developed a more significant role in facilitating cocaine trafficking to Europe. The European cocaine supply chain has grown massively in recent years, and West Africa has become a critical transit corridor. Venezuelan and Iranian actors do play a role here. The role of the Tren de Aragua cartel, documented by Insight Crime, is relevant: this criminal organization, which originated from a railway workers' union, has spread internationally and is responsible for a wide range of criminal activities, not only drug trafficking but also human trafficking, extortion, and prostitution.

US intelligence reports that at least 76 people have been killed in 19 attacks on suspected drug-smuggling boats since September 2025. However, no evidence has yet been presented that the targeted boats were actually transporting drugs. This is noteworthy because it suggests that the anti-drug narrative is partly used to justify operations whose primary objective is not drug control.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro has signaled that his country is going too far and has suspended the exchange of intelligence information with Washington. This also reflects critical voices in Latin America who recognize that US operations extend beyond drug enforcement.

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• South America's economic order is in flux and the strategic alliance with Europe through Mercosur

Oil as a strategic resource: The true story

The substantive truth behind the confrontation is geopolitical and economic. Venezuela controls the world's largest oil reserves, with approximately 303 billion barrels. Only Saudi Arabia possesses comparable quantities, and the US itself has oil reserves of just 45 billion barrels, roughly 15 percent of Venezuela's. The majority of Venezuelan oil is in the form of heavy fuel oil, which is particularly well-suited for refineries on the US Gulf Coast.

Following Maduro's election fraud in July 2024, the Venezuelan president, through an intermediary, offered Trump to open all current and future oil and gold projects to US companies under favorable conditions. This is a noteworthy point: Maduro evidently recognized the fragility of his position and attempted to appease Trump with economic concessions. At the same time, Venezuelan oil exports were to be redirected from China to the US, and the number of Venezuelan contracts with Chinese, Iranian, and Russian companies was to be significantly reduced.

Trump rejected these offers and instead tightened sanctions. In March 2025, Trump revoked the US oil company Chevron's license to extract oil in Venezuela and announced secondary sanctions for countries that purchase Venezuelan oil. This was a dramatic step, as Chevron has four joint ventures with the Venezuelan state-owned company PDVSA and is responsible for approximately a quarter of Venezuela's current oil production.

However, in a surprising change of heart, Trump later granted Chevron a special license in 2025, initially only for maintenance work, then as an expanded operating permit. In October 2025, Chevron was again authorized to produce oil. Analysts see a dual purpose in this strategy: On the one hand, it is intended to prevent China from gaining further control over Venezuelan oil resources; on the other hand, it signals that economic cooperation is possible even under continued regime pressure.

The strategic logic is transparent: A US regime change in Venezuela would allow the United States to massively increase oil production. After the short-term price spike that a military intervention would cause, a stable pro-US regime, supported by American investment, would lead to a significant expansion of the global oil supply. This would, in the long term, put downward pressure on oil prices and thus reduce global energy dependence on OPEC countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The Monroe Doctrine as an imperial rejection

The new Trump security strategy clearly articulates the United States' intention to reinstate the Monroe Doctrine, a 200-year-old doctrine of US dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Originating in 1823, the doctrine was initially a defensive strategy to protect newly independent Latin American states from European recolonization attempts. However, throughout the 20th century, it was misused to justify US interventions in Latin America, such as in Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and the Dominican Republic.

Under Trump, the Monroe Doctrine was explicitly used as a strategy to exclude China and Russia from the Western Hemisphere. The strategy document states verbatim: "We will deny non-continental competitors the ability to station military forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically important assets in our hemisphere."

This is an explicitly imperial strategy. It doesn't just concern Venezuela, but is directed against every state in Latin America that cannot fall under the exclusive control of the United States. Trump's model for successful regional domination is cooperation with right-wing, pro-US leaders like Nayib Bukele in El Salvador or Javier Milei in Argentina. Bukele's authoritarian style of government is tolerated by Washington as long as he presents himself as an ally against the left-wing opposition. Milei received massive support from Washington in the form of $40 billion in loans and was rewarded with comprehensive trade agreements.

The strategy also includes active interference in other countries' election campaigns. Trump has explicitly warned that he will adjust campaign support depending on the election outcome. The Trump administration has also threatened to cut funding if presidents do not follow Trump's policies. This is a reversal of the logic of the multilateral order and a relapse into classic great-power clientelism.

The political regime and internal legitimacy

Nicolás Maduro controls Venezuela through authoritarian means. The presidential election of July 28, 2024, was massively rigged. The elections showed an apparent victory for opposition candidate Edmundo González. According to opposition leader María Corina Machado, over 80 percent of the election reports indicated a victory for González. However, Maduro's government refuses to publish the full election results and instead declares Maduro the winner. The regime's response to the protest movement was brutal repression with the support of Cuban paramilitary units.

Maduro's legitimacy crisis is therefore present and dramatic. The regime enjoys internal support only among the military and the security apparatus. A broad majority of the population opposes the government but has been silenced through repression. This is one of the reasons why Trump recognized that a military operation against Venezuela would not encounter massive regional resistance. The regime is regionally isolated and internally delegitimized.

At the same time, a US invasion of Venezuela would be costly and raise significant issues under international law. A unilateral invasion would give countries like Brazil and other South American states a pretext that they, too, are not safe from US intervention. This could lead to regional destabilization, which would also harm US interests.

The logic of oil prices and global energy markets

The state of global oil markets is also relevant to the current situation. Brent crude oil was trading at approximately US$71.83 per barrel in December 2025. This is not particularly high by historical standards. The market situation is characterized by oversupply. OPEC+ maintains significant excess capacity, approximately 6.5 million barrels per day. The US has massively increased its own oil production, particularly under the Trump administration.

A military conflict with Venezuela would drive up oil prices in the short term, as a risk premium would be added to the price. However, in the medium term, a successful US intervention resulting in the destabilization of the Maduro regime would lead to a massive expansion of the global oil supply if the new pro-US government ramps up production with the help of American investment. This would then push prices down again.

From this perspective, Venezuela's oil reserves are a crucial resource for the Trump administration to secure its global energy dominance. A pro-US government in Venezuela would reduce other countries' energy dependence on Saudi Arabia and Iran, thereby weakening their geopolitical dominance.

The anatomy of an intervention scenario

The current confrontation between the US and Venezuela is therefore not primarily a fight against drug trafficking, but a classic intervention scenario based on three economic and geopolitical pillars. First, securing oil resources, which are central to global economic and military power. Second, pushing out Chinese and Russian influence from the Western Hemisphere by restoring exclusive US dominance. Third, weakening Iranian geopolitical influence by sanctioning its actors, such as Venezuela.

The current Trump administration uses the fight against drugs as a legitimate pretext for military operations whose primary goal is to force regime change. However, the costs of an invasion are substantial, both economically and geopolitically. The Maduro regime is economically weak but militarily well-equipped with Iranian and Russian weapons. A direct invasion would provoke regional resistance and violate international law.

Instead, Trump is relying on gradual pressure through sanctions, blockades, and military threats. The scenario could escalate, but it doesn't have to. Maduro could be forced to make internal concessions or even resign. The new security strategy makes it clear that Washington is determined to enforce the Monroe Doctrine under new circumstances. This has implications far beyond Venezuela and signals a return to classic imperial strategies after a period of comparatively more liberal international order.

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