The CEP Study 2023: Insights into the dynamic parcel market

The slump in retail and e-commerce is now also impacting the parcel delivery sector. The German Parcel and Express Logistics Association (DEP) announced in June 2023 that the previously steep increase in shipment volumes and revenues has come to a halt for the time being. The parcel industry is facing challenges: In 2022, approximately 4.2 billion shipments were transported, significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. However, this represents a decrease of 360 million shipments (-7.9%) compared to the previous year, although the number remains significantly higher (+14%) than before the pandemic. Nearly 14 million shipments are sent daily to approximately 9 million private and commercial recipients. Total revenue in 2022 amounted to around €26 billion (-3.5%). However, the 2023 DEP study shows that the number of jobs in the sector increased by 13,000 in 2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels. One forecast suggests that the CEP market could recover in the second half of 2023, and in the long term, growth to around 4.9 billion shipments in 2027 is considered realistic.

The CEP (courier, express, and parcel) industry, comprising courier, express, and parcel services, once again demonstrated its significant importance to society last year. Despite economic and political uncertainties, approximately 4.15 billion shipments were reliably delivered to private and commercial recipients in Germany in 2022. However, the strong growth of recent years came to an end in 2022. Compared to 2021, the market declined (-7.9%), but remains well above pre-pandemic levels. Total revenue fell by 3.5% to €26 billion. These findings and more are presented in the 2023 CEP Study, published by the German Parcel and Express Logistics Association (BIEK) in Berlin.

The decline shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has been overcome, and with it the enormous demand for CEP (courier, express, and parcel) services that had led to exceptional shipment growth since 2020. The year-on-year decrease therefore represents a return from the extremes of the pandemic. Despite the current decline, the long-term upward trend of the CEP market, which began in 2012, continues.

In particular, B2C shipments, which saw especially high demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, experienced a significant decline of 10.6% due to low consumer spending and reluctance to buy online. The shift of sales from online to brick-and-mortar retail after the pandemic subsided also contributed to this decline. B2B shipments (business-to-business) saw a less pronounced decrease of only 4%. The declines compared to 2021 lessened over the course of 2022.

Despite the decline in 2022, around 257,800 people work directly in the CEP (courier, express, and parcel) industry, about 8,200 fewer than the previous year. Nevertheless, at 13,200 employees, the number of workers is still significantly higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Almost 570,000 jobs indirectly depend on the CEP industry – that's over 50% more than ten years ago. The unique role of the CEP industry as an employer is explored in a dedicated chapter of the 2023 CEP study.

Marten Bosselmann, Chairman of the BIEK (Federal Association of Courier, Express and Parcel Services), emphasizes: “Despite the declines last year, it is clear that the long-term growth trend of the CEP (courier, express and parcel) market is continuing. The industry is adapting to the still turbulent economic situation and mastering the challenges that the economy and society as a whole are facing. The performance of CEP professionals remains constant, as does their importance as a job creator and employer with a future.” Bosselmann sincerely thanks the thousands of employees in Germany who have done extraordinary work since 2020 and without whom managing the pandemic would have been even more difficult.

The forecast for the CEP (courier, express, and parcel) market in 2023 is uncertain, as high inflation and the ongoing war in Ukraine do not suggest a significant short-term increase in consumption and market development. However, there are indications that the CEP market could slowly recover, particularly in the second half of the current year, and that growth will resume. The forecast depends on several factors, including the war in Ukraine, inflation, income, and general consumer sentiment. Supply chain issues and changes in international trade flows also play a role. In the medium term, average annual growth in shipment volume of 3.3% is expected until 2027, reaching nearly 4.9 billion shipments.

The CEP study, published annually since 2004, is prepared by KE-CONSULT Kurte&Esser GbR on behalf of the German Parcel and Express Logistics Association. It provides a comprehensive overview of market developments, trends, and the economic significance of the entire CEP industry in Germany.

Summary:

📉 CEP sector: The slump in retail and e-commerce is affecting the CEP sector; shipment volumes and sales are stagnating for the time being.

📦 Shipment figures: In 2022, around 4.2 billion shipments were transported, a decrease of 360 million (-7.9%) compared to the previous year, but still +14% higher than before the pandemic.

💰 Total revenue: Total revenue in 2022 was approximately 26 billion euros (-3.5%).

📈 Employment: The number of jobs in the CEP market increased by 13,000 in 2022 compared to before the pandemic.

🚚 Forecast: The CEP market could recover in the second half of 2023, with long-term growth to approximately 4.9 billion shipments expected in 2027.

💼 Labor market: Around 257,800 people work directly in the CEP (courier, express, and parcel) industry, about 8,200 fewer than last year, but still significantly above pre-pandemic levels. Almost 570,000 jobs are indirectly dependent on the CEP industry.

🔮 Uncertain forecast: The forecast for the CEP market in 2023 is uncertain, depending on factors such as inflation, the war in Ukraine, income, and consumer sentiment.

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CEP stands for "courier, express and parcel service". It is an industry that deals with the delivery of parcels, documents and other shipments in a fast and reliable manner.

These services offer businesses and individuals the opportunity to send shipments nationally and internationally within a short timeframe. Courier, express, and parcel (CEP) service providers work with a well-organized network of delivery drivers, vehicles, and warehouses to ensure fast and efficient transport of shipments.

The CEP (courier, express, and parcel) industry is of particular importance in the age of online retail and e-commerce, as it enables the delivery of goods to end customers. Typical examples of CEP service providers are companies like DHL, UPS, FedEx, Hermes, and many others that operate globally and deliver millions of shipments daily.