The KEP study 2023: Insights into the dynamic parcel market

The slowdown in retail and e-commerce is now also affecting the CEP sector. The Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics announced in June 2023 that the previous steep increase in shipment volumes and sales had stopped for the time being. The parcel industry is facing challenges: around 4.2 billion shipments were transported in 2022, which is significantly above the level before the corona pandemic. However, there was a decrease of 360 million shipments (-7.9%) compared to the previous year, but the number remains significantly higher (+14%) than before the pandemic. Almost 14 million items are sent to around 9 million private and commercial recipients every day. Total sales in 2022 were around 26 billion euros (-3.5%). However, the KEP study from 2023 shows that the number of employees increased by 13,000 jobs in 2022 compared to before the pandemic. One forecast suggests that the CEP market could recover in the second half of 2023, and in the long term growth to around 4.9 billion shipments in 2027 is considered realistic.

The CEP industry, consisting of courier, express and parcel services, once again demonstrated its great importance for society last year. Despite economic and political uncertainties, around 4.15 billion shipments were reliably delivered to private and commercial recipients in Germany in 2022. However, the strong growth of recent years will come to an end in 2022. Compared to 2021, the market is down (-7.9%), but still well above pre-corona pandemic levels. Total sales fell by 3.5% to 26 billion euros. The KEP study 2023, presented by the Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics (BIEK) in Berlin, provides these results and more.

The decline shows that the corona pandemic has been overcome and with it the enormously high demand for CEP services, which has led to exceptional shipment growth since 2020. So the decline compared to last year is a decline from the extremes of the pandemic. Despite the current decline, the long-term upward trend of the CEP market since 2012 continues.

In particular, B2C shipments, which were in particularly high demand during the Corona pandemic, recorded a significant decline of 10.6% as a result of the low consumer propensity and purchasing reluctance in online retail. The shift of sales in online retail to brick-and-mortar retail after the effects of Corona have ended also contributes to this. The decline in B2B shipments (shipping from company to company) is less pronounced at just 4%. The declines compared to 2021 will weaken over the course of 2022.

Despite the decline in 2022, around 257,800 people work directly in the CEP industry, around 8,200 fewer than in the previous year. Nevertheless, the number of employees at 13,200 is still well above the level before the corona pandemic. Almost 570,000 jobs depend indirectly on the CEP industry - over 50% more than ten years ago. The unique role of the CEP industry as an employer is highlighted in a separate chapter of the 2023 CEP study.

Marten Bosselmann, Chairman of BIEK, emphasizes: “Despite the declines last year, it is clear that the long-term growth trend of the CEP market will continue. The industry is adapting to the continuing turbulent economic situation and mastering the challenges that the economy and society as a whole have to face. The performance of the KEP professionals remains constant, as does their importance as a job driver and employer with prospects." Bosselmann would like to sincerely thank the thousands of employees in Germany who have achieved extraordinary things since 2020 and without whom coping with the pandemic would have been even more difficult were.

The forecast for the CEP market in 2023 is uncertain as high inflation and the ongoing Ukraine war do not indicate a significant short-term increase in consumption and market development. However, there are signs that the CEP market could slowly recover, especially in the second half of the current year, and that growth will pick up again. The forecast depends on several factors, including the Ukraine war, inflation, income and general consumer sentiment. Supply chain problems and changes in international flows of goods also play a role. In the medium term, an average annual growth in shipment volume of 3.3% is expected until 2027, which amounts to almost 4.9 billion shipments.

The KEP study, which has been published annually since 2004, is prepared by KE-CONSULT Kurte&Esser GbR on behalf of the Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics. It offers a comprehensive overview of market developments, trends and economic significance of the entire CEP industry in Germany.

Summary:

📉 CEP sector: Slowdown in retail and e-commerce is impacting the CEP sector, shipment volumes and sales are stagnating for the time being.

📦 Shipment numbers: Around 4.2 billion shipments were transported in 2022, a decrease of 360 million (-7.9%) compared to the previous year, but still +14% higher than before the pandemic.

💰 Total sales: Total sales in 2022 were around 26 billion euros (-3.5%).

📈 Employment: The number of employees in the CEP market increased by 13,000 jobs in 2022 compared to before the pandemic.

🚚 Forecast: CEP market could recover in the second half of 2023, with long-term growth expected to around 4.9 billion shipments in 2027.

💼 Labor market: Around 257,800 people work directly in the CEP industry, around 8,200 fewer than last year, but still well above the pre-pandemic level. Almost 570,000 jobs indirectly depend on the CEP industry.

🔮 Uncertain forecast: The forecast for the CEP market in 2023 is uncertain, depending on factors such as inflation, Ukraine war, income and consumer sentiment.

Hashtags: #KEP #parcelandexpresslogistics #shipmentgrowth #employment #forecast

KEP stands for “courier, express and parcel service”. It is an industry that deals with the delivery of packages, documents and other shipments in a fast and reliable manner.

These services offer companies and private individuals the opportunity to send shipments nationally and internationally within a short period of time. CEP service providers work with a well-organized network of delivery agents, vehicles and warehouses to ensure fast and efficient transport of shipments.

The CEP industry is particularly important in times of online trading and e-commerce, as it enables the delivery of goods to end customers. Typical examples of CEP service providers are companies such as DHL, UPS, FedEx, Hermes and many others, which operate worldwide and deliver millions of shipments every day.