One rumble, please: How Donald Trump is forcing the EU Commission and von der Leyen to act on Russia's energy – Image: Xpert.Digital
The Trump hammer: EU plans radical cuts – no more oil and gas from Russia?
### Shocking figures: Why the EU is still paying more for Russia's energy than for aid to Ukraine ### Energy cut-off for Russia: What the new EU plan means for your heating bills and fuel prices ### Russia's gas is dividing Europe: These countries are resisting the immediate import ban – is the ultimate test imminent? ### The billion-dollar loophole: How more Russian liquefied gas is flowing to Europe than before despite sanctions ### The great energy transition: EU plans accelerated phase-out of Russian imports ###
Energy transition in the fast lane: Why the EU now wants to stop all gas and oil imports from Russia
The European Union is facing a dramatic acceleration of its energy transition, triggered by massive political pressure from the United States. Following talks between Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump, the EU Commission is now pushing forward with a plan to end all oil and gas imports from Russia significantly faster than previously planned. This move is a direct response to Trump's demand to completely cut off the funding to Moscow before the US imposes further sanctions.
The urgency of the project is underscored by alarming figures: Between February 2024 and February 2025 alone, almost €22 billion flowed from the EU to Moscow for Russian energy resources – a sum that exceeds the financial aid provided to Ukraine during the same period. Although dependence has been reduced since the start of the war, it continues to represent a massive source of financing for Russia's war effort and a geopolitical lever. But the path to full independence is rocky and exposes the deep rifts within the Union. While most member states are seeking alternatives, Hungary and Slovakia in particular are vehemently resisting a rapid exit, citing the threat of economic disruption. The new plan is therefore not only a technical but, above all, a political test of European cohesion.
What is the current state of the discussion?
The European Union is facing a crucial phase in its energy policy. Following talks between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump, the Commission has announced an initiative to accelerate the suspension of all European oil and gas imports from Russia. This development follows Trump's demand that NATO countries completely abandon Russian energy before imposing further sanctions against Russia.
What are the economic dimensions of the problem?
The figures illustrate the magnitude of the challenge: In the first half of 2025, the EU imported approximately €4.48 billion worth of liquefied natural gas from Russia, an increase of 29 percent compared to the previous year. In total, the EU spent almost €22 billion on Russian energy raw materials from February 2024 to February 2025, including €9.6 billion on pipeline natural gas, €7 billion on liquefied natural gas, and €4 billion on crude oil. This sum even exceeded the €18.7 billion EU financial aid provided to Ukraine during the same period.
Dependence on Russian energy sources varies considerably among EU member states. In 2024, gas deliveries from Russia accounted for approximately 19 percent of all EU gas imports. Despite a significant decline since the start of the war, 13 million tons of Russian crude oil still entered the European market in 2024.
Why does the dependency continue?
There are several reasons for this continued dependence. Unlike with oil and coal, the EU has not yet imposed comprehensive gas sanctions. Russian gas continues to reach Europe as liquefied natural gas via tankers and the TurkStream pipeline. Deliveries via TurkStream even increased by 6.8 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025.
The situation is particularly problematic in Hungary and Slovakia. Hungary's dependence on Russian oil rose from 61 percent before the invasion to 86 percent in 2024, while Slovakia remains almost entirely dependent on Russian supplies. These countries have raised serious concerns about the EU's plan to withdraw from Russian energy supplies, citing logistical challenges and higher costs.
What plans has the EU Commission already developed?
The Commission had already presented a multi-stage plan in June 2025. This plan stipulates that new gas supply contracts with Russia will be banned starting January 1, 2026. Existing short-term contracts are to expire by June 17, 2026, while long-term contracts are to be terminated by the end of 2027.
The Commission's original timetable stipulated that no gas would be imported from Russia into the EU until 2028. According to current plans, oil imports are to be completely halted by the end of 2027.
What does the 19th sanctions package contain?
Von der Leyen announced the swift presentation of the 19th sanctions package, which will specifically target Russia's banks and energy sector, as well as the use of cryptocurrencies to circumvent sanctions. This package follows the 18th sanctions package of July 2025, which already contained comprehensive measures.
The 18th package included a reduction in the price cap for Russian crude oil from $60 to $47.60 per barrel, with an automatic adjustment mechanism. In addition, 105 additional vessels from the Russian shadow fleet were listed, affecting a total of 444 vessels. Sanctions against additional Russian banks and restrictions on Russian liquefied natural gas were also imposed.
What role does US politics play?
Trump had made new US sanctions against Russia contingent on all NATO countries agreeing to stop buying Russian oil and imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports. He called the purchase of Russian oil "shocking" and stated that it significantly weakened the negotiating position with Russia.
The demand is directed not only at EU member states, but also includes NATO countries like Turkey, which imports cheap energy from Russia on a large scale. This makes implementation particularly complex, as Turkey has so far shown no signs of any willingness to change this quickly.
What practical challenges exist?
The greatest challenges lie in landlocked countries without access to the sea. Hungary and Slovakia are particularly affected because they can replace heavy Russian pipeline gas with LNG delivered by ship. However, both countries have alternatives: They can obtain non-Russian oil from Croatia via the Adriatic Pipeline, and the Central European market has sufficient supplies of gas from the US and Qatar.
The EU Commission is providing transitional arrangements for these countries. Exempt from this are deliveries via pipelines tied to long-term contracts to countries without access to water or ports until the end of 2027. This means that Hungary and Slovakia could continue to import large quantities of gas from Russia over the next two years.
How are energy flows currently developing?
Energy flows have changed significantly since the start of the war. While Russia's share of EU pipeline gas fell from over 40 percent in 2021 to around 11 percent in 2024, LNG imports increased. In 2024, 15.93 million tons of Russian LNG were imported into the EU, compared to 13.35 million tons in 2023—an increase of 19.3 percent.
The most important buyer was the German state-owned company SEFE, which purchased 58 shipments with a total volume of 4.1 million tonnes in 2024, compared to only 12 shipments and 880,000 tonnes in 2023. This illustrates how dependence continues in new forms despite sanctions.
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Transparency instead of detours: How the EU wants to stop Russian energy flows
What impact do the Ukrainian attacks have on infrastructure?
Ukraine has repeatedly attacked the Druzhba pipeline, through which Hungary and Slovakia still receive Russian oil. These attacks led to short-term supply disruptions but also highlighted the vulnerability of the infrastructure. Supplies were subsequently resumed in each case.
Ukraine earns approximately $200 million annually from transit fees, a considerable sum for a war-torn country. At the same time, in 2024, Ukraine blocked its portion of the pipeline for deliveries to Slovakia and Hungary in response to their pro-Russian stance.
How are the affected countries reacting?
Hungary under Viktor Orban has taken a particularly controversial position. The country has made no discernible efforts to find alternative suppliers, even though technical solutions are available. Orban claims that the energy security of the entire EU is at risk, even though experts confirm that alternatives exist.
Slovak Minister of Economic Affairs Denisa Sakova hopes for stable supplies and no further attacks on the energy infrastructure. Since the outbreak of war, both countries have transferred €5.4 billion to Moscow for crude oil alone—a sum sufficient to finance 1,800 Iskander-M missiles.
What economic consequences can be expected?
An accelerated phase-out of Russian energy would require significant economic adjustments. Energy prices in the EU, and especially in Germany, rose significantly shortly after the first sanctions were imposed. In 2022 alone, EU member states spent approximately €390 billion on gas and electricity subsidies to protect households and businesses.
Although prices later stabilized at pre-crisis levels, the European Court of Auditors warned of a lack of affordability guarantees in the event of future shortages. CREA researchers estimate that Russian revenues from energy commodities would be reduced by one-fifth if sanctions were tightened and loopholes closed.
What is the long-term strategy?
The EU is committed to comprehensively diversifying its energy supply. The US is already the EU's largest LNG supplier, accounting for almost 45 percent of total imports. A recent trade agreement between the EU and the US stipulated that the EU will import billions of euros in additional energy from the US over the next three years.
Member states will be required to develop national diversification plans by the end of 2025, including concrete measures to replace Russian energy imports. At the same time, the energy transition and the expansion of renewable energies will be promoted to eliminate risks to security of supply and market stability.
What role do transparency and monitoring play?
An important aspect of the new strategy is improving the transparency and traceability of energy flows. Companies will be required to comprehensively document the origin of energy imports. The Commission will monitor progress in cooperation with the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators.
These measures are intended to prevent Russian energy from entering the EU via indirect routes. The 18th sanctions package already banned the import of products made from Russian crude oil refined in third countries.
What geopolitical impacts can be foreseen?
An accelerated phase-out of Russian energy would significantly alter the geopolitical balance of power. Russia would lose an important lever of economic pressure, while the EU could strengthen its strategic autonomy. However, there is a risk of renewed dependence on the US, which is already the most important alternative supplier.
Turkey, as a NATO partner, plays a particularly complex role, acting both as a transit country for Russian gas and as a source of large quantities of Russian energy itself. Its willingness to cooperate will be crucial to the success of the new strategy.
How realistic are the chances of success?
The initiative's prospects for success are mixed. While technical alternatives exist for most EU countries, the political will for rapid change is sometimes lacking. Trump's inclusion of Turkey in his demands makes implementation even more complex, as it is unclear whether a purely EU initiative would suffice.
Experts confirm that the EU initiative would not jeopardize the energy security of Hungary and Slovakia. These countries have sufficient reserves and alternative routes. The main obstacles are therefore political, not technical.
What role does sanction evasion play?
A key problem is the various methods used to circumvent existing sanctions. The 19th sanctions package is specifically aimed at combating the use of cryptocurrencies. The 18th package already introduced stricter controls on cryptocurrencies and shadow fleet financing.
The Russian shadow fleet of outdated tankers with opaque ownership structures is increasingly being used to circumvent sanctions. In addition to transporting oil, there are concerns about possible sabotage against underwater infrastructure.
How could relations with Ukraine develop?
The Ukrainian leadership supports the accelerated phase-out of Russian energy. President Zelenskyy called on allies to stop looking for excuses to impose sanctions. At the same time, Ukraine is building up its capacity for new types of missiles capable of attacking Russian energy infrastructure, making Russian energy imports increasingly uncertain.
Tensions with Hungary have further escalated due to the attacks on the Druzhba pipeline. Zelenskyy alluded to the pipeline's name and stated that friendship with Hungary depends on its position. These bilateral conflicts make a unified EU strategy difficult.
What alternatives are available?
The EU has already significantly diversified its energy supply. In addition to the US, Norway, Qatar, and other countries supply gas to the EU. The Adriatic Pipeline offers an alternative for Central European countries, although the Hungarian company MOL cites capacity constraints and different types of oil as obstacles.
In the long term, the EU is committed to accelerating the expansion of renewable energies and developing a hydrogen economy. The REPowerEU plan contains concrete targets for the hydrogen ramp-up and designated acceleration areas for renewable energy expansion.
Between political will and practical hurdles
The initiative for an accelerated phase-out of Russian energy faces significant challenges. While the technical and economic alternatives largely exist, some member states lack the political will for rapid change. The link to US demands and the inclusion of Turkey as a NATO partner further complicate the situation.
The success of the initiative ultimately depends on whether the EU is willing to accept short-term economic costs and political tensions in order to achieve long-term strategic autonomy. Developments so far show that, despite extensive sanctions, new dependencies can arise if all loopholes are not consistently closed.
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