Goodbye cheap packages from China? The de minimis rule in the USA is history – what this means for e-commerce – Image: Xpert.Digital
De minimis rule: Why your next overseas bargain could become significantly more expensive
De minimis rule abolished – small change, big impact: How the parcel halt affects US consumers and changes global trade
A seemingly innocuous action—the US Postal Service's (USPS) halting the acceptance of packages from China and Hong Kong—has far-reaching implications. What appears at first glance to be an administrative measure is, in reality, a symptom of a profound shift in global trade relations and a targeted blow to the booming e-commerce sector. The increasingly popular platforms like Temu, Shein, and AliExpress are the primary targets of this new trade policy.
The reasons for the parcel stoppage: A squeeze between customs, logistics, and political calculation
The USPS' decision to no longer accept packages from China and Hong Kong is the result of a combination of various factors that reinforce each other:
The end of the duty-free allowance: A turning point for online trade
A key reason for the package halt is the elimination of the so-called de minimis rule, a previous exemption that allowed the duty-free and largely unchecked import of packages valued at less than $800. This regulation was a boon for Chinese e-commerce companies, which used it extensively to ship inexpensive goods directly to US consumers. It is estimated that over three million such packages originated from China alone every day. The removal of this duty-free threshold now means that every single package will be subject to customs inspection, resulting in significant delays and additional costs.
Tariffs as an escalation step in the trade war
The imposition of blanket tariffs on Chinese imports, including small shipments, represents a further escalation in the trade conflict. President Trump initially imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, which was later increased. Furthermore, it was mandated that every package must include detailed customs declarations and tariff codes, increasing the bureaucratic burden and costs for both retailers and consumers. This measure is part of an already tense trade conflict, further fueled by China's retaliatory tariffs on US energy products and agricultural machinery.
Logistical overload: A system at its limit
The flood of cheap packages from China had already pushed the USPS system to its limits even before the package halt. The removal of the duty-free allowance would have necessitated manual inspection of all shipments, which would have simply exceeded the US Postal Service's capacity. This would have further exacerbated the already existing bottlenecks in the logistics infrastructure, particularly at ports and customs offices.
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The consequences for consumers and businesses: A domino effect with far-reaching repercussions
The USPS' decision to no longer accept packages from China and Hong Kong has a number of immediate and long-term consequences for consumers, businesses, and the economy as a whole:
Delivery delays and rising prices: The dream of cheap shopping is bursting
Consumers who regularly shop on platforms like Shein and Temu should expect longer delivery times and higher prices. The additional costs for customs clearance and alternative logistics partners like DHL and FedEx will inevitably be passed on to consumers. The dream of cheap purchases from China could soon be a thing of the past.
Existential threat to US small businesses: When the supply chain breaks down
Many small US businesses rely on Chinese supply chains to manufacture or source their products. The package halt and higher tariffs pose an existential threat to these businesses, as they increase their production costs and impair their competitiveness.
A blow to e-commerce: Online retail in flux
The package halt and new tariffs are hitting the booming e-commerce sector hard. Platforms like Temu, Shein, and AliExpress, which rely on direct shipping of cheap goods from China, are facing new challenges. They must adapt their business models and find alternative ways to reach their customers in the US.
The return of inflation: More expensive shopping baskets, thinner wallets
Rising prices for imported goods from China contribute to inflation and reduce the purchasing power of US consumers. In times of already high price increases, this represents an additional burden for many households.
Alternative shipping methods: A look at the opportunities and challenges
Since the US Postal Service temporarily suspended accepting packages from China, US consumers have had to resort to alternative shipping methods. But what options are available, and what challenges do they present?
Direct shipping options via Chinese platforms: The detour via agents and air freight
Taobao agents: One option is to use intermediary services that process orders on Taobao, manage logistics, and provide English-language support. These agencies handle customs formalities and ship goods via express services like DHL or FedEx.
Official logistics of Taobao: The platform offers limited direct shipping options via air or sea freight, however, this usually requires Chinese language skills and a local account.
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International courier services: Faster shipping, higher costs
Express shipping via DHL/UPS/FedEx: For packages up to 150 kg, express shipping is a relatively inexpensive (approx. USD 5/kg) and fast (3–5 days) option. Larger shipments over 150 kg can be sent by air freight (1–5 days) or sea freight (15–40 days).
Advantages: Reliable shipment tracking and simplified customs clearance are the biggest advantages of this option.
Third-party logistics providers (freight forwarders): Experts for complex logistics solutions
- LCL/FCL sea freight: For large shipments, sea freight is a cost-effective alternative (from USD 2,500 per container). LCL (Less than Container Load) is suitable for partial container loads, while FCL (Full Container Load) is used for full container loads.
- Door-to-door services: Providers like Honour Ocean or Luckystar Logistics handle the entire logistics process, from pickup and customs clearance to last-mile delivery. Prices typically range from USD 5–10/kg for air freight.
Adjustments to the purchasing strategy: Local warehousing and group orders
- Platforms with local US warehouses: Some retailers store goods in the USA to avoid delivery times and customs risks.
- Order consolidation: Multiple items can be bundled via forwarders to save costs.
Challenges and stumbling blocks: Customs regulations and delays
New customs regulations: Since February 2025, customs exemption for shipments under USD 800 has been abolished, which particularly affects budget platforms such as Temu and Shein.
Delays: Customs checks and port congestion can extend the delivery time by days or even weeks.
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The impact on US consumers: price increases, inflationary pressure and loss of purchasing power
The introduction of tariffs by the US government has immediate and noticeable effects on consumers in the USA:
Price increases for imported goods: Everyday life is becoming more expensive
Everyday products like electronics, household goods, and clothing from China will become more expensive due to the additional tariffs. Discount platforms like Temu and Shein, which previously benefited from tariff exemptions for packages under $800, are particularly affected. The higher prices for imported goods strain consumers' budgets and reduce their purchasing power.
Cars: The dream of owning a new car is getting more expensive
The 25% tariffs on vehicles from Mexico and Canada could increase new car prices by an average of $3,000. German manufacturers like VW, which produce in Mexico, are directly affected. The higher prices for new cars make it more difficult for consumers to afford a new vehicle.
Energy and food: Daily shopping becomes a luxury
Oil and gas prices are rising due to 10% tariffs on Canadian energy imports, while Mexican agricultural products such as vegetables are subject to a 25% tariff. The higher energy and food prices are hitting low-income households particularly hard.
Inflationary pressure and loss of purchasing power: Inflation is eating away at income
Inflation could rise by 0.8–1.0 percentage points in 2025, adding further strain to already high price increases. The de minimis rule for small shipments under USD 800 is being abolished, meaning that even inexpensive online orders from China are now subject to customs duties. Rising inflation reduces consumers' purchasing power, making it harder for them to afford things.
The fear of “shrinkflation”
Many companies are responding to rising costs by reducing package sizes while keeping prices the same. This trick, known as “shrinkflation,” allows manufacturers to keep the official inflation rate low, while consumers effectively get less for their money.
Indirect consequences of trade conflicts: A complex web of dependencies
The direct effects of customs policy on consumers are compounded by a number of indirect consequences resulting from global trade conflicts:
Retaliatory tariffs: A vicious cycle of price increases
China's retaliatory tariffs on US exports such as coal (+15%) and oil (+10%) are further driving up commodity prices in the US. These price increases are then passed on to consumers, leading to even higher prices for goods and services.
Supply chain disruptions: When goods are no longer available
Delays caused by customs inspections and port congestion could affect the availability of goods. If goods cannot be delivered on time, this can lead to production outages and shortages, which in turn drives up prices.
The “bullwhip effect”: An amplifier of uncertainty
Complex supply chains can experience a "bullwhip effect." Small fluctuations in consumer demand lead to increasingly larger fluctuations in order quantities from upstream suppliers. This uncertainty can result in unnecessary inventory and price volatility.
Long-term risks: recession, job losses and a global trade war
Protectionist trade policies pose a number of long-term risks to the US economy and global stability:
Risk of recession: A downward spiral for the economy
There are warnings that the US tariffs could push Canada and Mexico into recession, which would destabilize the North American market. A recession in North America would have devastating consequences for the global economy.
Job losses: The automotive industry in focus
The automotive industry anticipates additional costs of USD 60 billion due to the tariffs, which could lead to production relocations and job losses. The loss of jobs in the automotive industry would have far-reaching social and economic consequences.
A global trade war: The escalation of tensions
The protectionist trade policies of the US could trigger a global trade war, further exacerbating the economic consequences. A trade war would disrupt global supply chains, reduce investment, and slow economic growth.
The fragmentation of the world economy
The increase in protectionist measures could lead to a fragmentation of the global economy. Instead of a global market, regional blocs would emerge that trade less with each other. This would reduce the efficiency of the global economy and limit its growth potential.
The reactions of companies: adaptation, relocation or abandonment?
Companies worldwide must adapt to the new reality. Some strategies they are considering include:
- Relocation of production: Companies could relocate their production from China to other countries to avoid tariffs.
- Supply chain adjustments: Companies could diversify their supply chains and become less dependent on individual suppliers.
- Price increases: Companies could pass on the higher costs to consumers.
- Innovation and efficiency improvements: Companies could try to reduce their costs through innovation and efficiency improvements.
- Abandonment of the US market: Some companies may be forced to abandon the US market.
The political dimension: A trade war as a power play
US trade policy is not just an economic matter, but also a political one. It is part of a larger power struggle between the US and China, a struggle for economic, technological, and geopolitical dominance.
A turning point for global trade
The halt to parcel shipments and the new tariffs mark a turning point for global trade. They are a symptom of growing protectionism and increasing distrust between major economies. US consumers bear the brunt of these policies through direct price increases, higher inflation, and uncertain supply chains. The measures could also trigger a global trade war, further exacerbating the economic consequences. It remains to be seen how the situation will develop in the coming years and whether a constructive solution can be found to the trade conflict between the US and China. What is clear, however, is that global trade relations have been permanently altered.
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