Black Week | Black Friday and the big discount lie: Study reveals how little you really save on Black Friday

The shine is gone: Why Black Friday 2025 is fighting for its right to exist

For years, Black Friday in Germany knew only one direction: straight up. The shopping event, imported from the USA, became a firmly established fixture on the calendar, accompanied by record sales and a collective bargain hunt. But in 2025, retailers face a watershed moment that couldn't be more pronounced. What was once considered a guaranteed revenue generator now threatens to shatter against the reality of German consumers. Forecasts from the German Retail Federation paint a bleak picture: For the first time since data collection began in 2016, a decline in sales to €5.8 billion is expected, rather than growth.

The reasons for this “Black Friday fatigue” are multifaceted and profound. While almost 98 percent of the population is aware of the sales event, the willingness to buy has plummeted – only 13 percent are firmly planning to make a purchase on November 28th. Behind this lies a massive loss of trust: An overwhelming majority of consumers now see through the mechanisms of artificially inflated marked-down prices and minimal discounts, which, according to analyses, often amount to a sobering seven percent instead of the promised dream savings.

Added to this is a toxic mix of economic uncertainty and new competition. While inflation and anxieties about the future keep Germans' wallets tightly closed, aggressive discount retailers from Asia like Temu and Shein are eroding the traditional retail sector's ability to maintain consistently low prices. Black Friday 2025 is therefore more than just a sales day; it's becoming a barometer of the mood of an unsettled nation and a retail model that may have already passed its peak. We look behind the scenes of the discount war, analyze the psychological traps, and reveal why this year's king of bargain hunting is truly no longer wearing clothes.

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• Black Friday for retailers? Only 13 percent are definitely planning a bargain purchase on Black Friday.

When the discount emperor no longer wears clothes

The annual discount frenzy that has reached us from the United States is facing a remarkable turning point in 2025. What once began as a promising import of American consumer culture has evolved in Germany into a phenomenon increasingly caught between a loss of credibility, environmental awareness, and economic realities. The figures speak for themselves: While 98 percent of the German population is familiar with Black Friday, only 13 percent are certain they will actually shop on November 28, 2025. This discrepancy between awareness and willingness to buy reveals a fundamental shift in the perception of this once-celebrated shopping event.

The German Retail Federation (HDE) forecasts total sales of €5.8 billion for Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday in 2025. While this figure may seem impressive at first glance, it marks the first year-on-year decline since systematic data collection began in 2016. The previous trend was one of continuous growth, sometimes exceeding 20 percent. The fact that even price competition can no longer generate further growth signals a profound shift in consumer behavior.

The YouGov study, conducted in cooperation with the SINUS Institute, reveals the underlying mechanisms of this trend. Sixty-four percent of respondents recognize fake discounts in the offers, and 57 percent are annoyed by the ubiquitous advertising. At 19 percent, mistrust is the most frequently cited emotion Germans associate with Black Friday. Only 21 percent still experience the day of sales as a special event. The combination of advertising fatigue, recognized deceptive tactics, and prevailing suspicion clearly demonstrates that the supposed magic of Black Friday may never have been more than a cleverly orchestrated marketing illusion, whose effectiveness diminishes with each passing year.

From traffic chaos to global event: A brief history

A historical perspective on Black Friday reveals the transformation of a specifically American phenomenon into a global consumer event. The term itself was first used by the Philadelphia police in the 1960s to describe the traffic chaos and crowds the day after Thanksgiving. It wasn't until the late 1980s that it acquired a positive connotation, when retailers interpreted the day as the beginning of profitability—the point at which sales lifted them from losses to profitability.

Black Friday arrived in Germany through American companies. Apple advertised discounts on the Friday after Thanksgiving as early as 2006, though it didn't explicitly use the term "Black Friday" at that time. The phenomenon only became more widespread in 2013, when around 500 retailers promoted their offers via specialized advertising portals. While Black Friday in the US primarily takes place in brick-and-mortar stores, in Germany it developed predominantly as an online event from the outset. This digital focus partly explains why the day has a different cultural significance here than in its country of origin.

Stagnation at a high level: The economic reality

The economic analysis of Black Friday reveals a paradoxical development: Although the promotional day is now firmly established in the German consumer calendar, sales have stagnated at a high level and are now showing a downward trend for the first time. Sales figures have followed a remarkable trajectory since 2016. From modest beginnings, the volume grew steadily to €5.9 billion in 2023 and 2024. For 2025, the German Retail Federation expects a slight decline of just under two percent to €5.8 billion.

This development is directly related to the general consumer sentiment in Germany. The GfK Consumer Climate Index remains at a historically low level. Market researchers forecast a value of minus 24.1 points for November 2025, representing a further decline compared to the previous month. The persistently tense geopolitical situation, renewed fears of inflation, and growing concerns about job security are diminishing hopes for a short-term recovery in consumer sentiment. Before the coronavirus pandemic, the indicator was consistently positive, hovering around plus ten points.

Despite slight signs of recovery, consumer spending remains low. Persistently high prices for food and energy are causing pronounced reluctance to buy, even if income expectations temporarily improve. This structural consumer fatigue forms the backdrop against which Black Friday struggles to maintain its relevance.

Price analysis: Myths, reality and the trick with the RRP

The question of actual savings on Black Friday is the subject of intensive research. A comprehensive price study by the comparison portal Idealo, which analyzed more than 10,000 products from the 100 most popular Black Friday categories, arrives at mixed results. On average, savings amounted to seven percent. Nearly three-quarters of all items examined were cheaper on Black Friday 2024 than in the preceding month of October.

However, the discount amounts varied considerably between product categories. Televisions were particularly heavily discounted, with an average price reduction of 17 percent, which corresponds to an absolute saving of 178 euros. E-bikes saw an average discount of 15 percent, or 401 euros. For notebooks, the savings averaged 11 percent, or 101 euros. The price reductions were significantly lower for particularly popular products. Smartphones showed savings of only five percent, while smartwatches and tablets each saw six percent.

A key finding of the price study contradicts common expectations: Black Friday is not necessarily the best shopping day of the month. 59 percent of the analyzed products were cheaper on at least one other day in November than on the official Black Friday itself. Prices typically fall at the beginning of November and reach their lowest points during Black Week or on Black Friday itself, but usually rise again somewhat afterward, remaining below October levels.

The widespread fear that retailers artificially inflate their prices before Black Friday in order to offer seemingly drastic discounts is not confirmed by the Idealo study. No systematic price increases prior to the sale were found for the 100 most popular categories. However, many retailers resort to a different trick: they use the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) as the crossed-out price. This MSRP is often deliberately set as a so-called "moon price," meaning an unrealistically high price that is designed from the outset to be crossed out.

Since 2022, the Price Indication Ordinance has required retailers to state the lowest price of the 30 days prior to any discount promotion when offering price reductions. However, not all retailers consistently comply with this regulation, often suggesting larger discounts than are actually available. Consumer protection agencies therefore recommend using at least two different price comparison websites and paying particular attention to price trends over the past few months.

Neurobiology of compulsive shopping: How our brain is tricked

Black Friday is governed by a multitude of sophisticated psychological mechanisms that systematically influence consumer behavior. Neuroscientific findings show that even the prospect of a great bargain activates the brain's reward system. The interplay of dopamine and endorphins turns consumers into hunters and evokes genuine feelings of euphoria. At the same time, those brain regions that normally control rational and reasonable behavior are significantly less active during this period. The term "shopping frenzy" is therefore quite apt, as it involves the same neurobiological processes that also give rise to the effects of intoxicants.

A key psychological mechanism is the FOMO effect, the Fear of Missing Out. Because retailers advertise Black Friday intensively for weeks beforehand, consumer expectations rise particularly high. The fact that offers are time-limited and only available while supplies last further intensifies this anxiety. Limitation-based marketing strategies deliberately exploit this psychology to create a sense of urgency.

In addition, there are visual triggers, which can be demonstrated through eye-tracking studies. Price tags in bright, attention-grabbing colors magically draw the eye. The resulting impression of a special offer often has an even stronger effect than the actual amount of the discount. Words like "Sale" or "Top Deal" immediately catch the eye and trigger feelings of happiness. Social pressure also plays a significant role. People often orient themselves toward the behavior of others and readily follow a perceived majority. If everyone is shopping on Black Friday, the impression arises that there must be advantages.

Consumer psychologist and brain researcher Hans Georg Häusel describes Black Friday as a social event that is difficult to ignore. Shopping represents a reward for people, which is why many actively seek out bargains. He compares Black Friday to an advent calendar: people are eager to see what's inside. This psychological conditioning explains why many consumers participate despite knowing better about the limited actual savings.

The inflation of discount days: From Black Friday to Black Week

The original focus on a single Friday has long since given way to an extended discount period. Black Friday has evolved into Black Week, which in 2025 began on November 24th and ran until November 28th. This was seamlessly followed by Cyber ​​Monday on December 1st, which in turn has been extended to become Cyber ​​Week. Many retailers now begin their promotions as early as the beginning of November with early deals and pre-launch offers.

This development is the result of intensified competition for consumer attention. Retailers not only want to be present on Friday itself, but also want to engage customers beforehand, for example through exclusive coupons or VIP access for newsletter subscribers. However, this strategy comes at a price: it contributes to general advertising fatigue and exacerbates the feeling of oversaturation that many consumers already experience.

Parallel to the extension of sales periods, the number of discount promotions has also multiplied. Besides Black Friday, Singles' Day, Prime Day, and various seasonal sales events compete for consumer attention. The most frequent reasons consumers cite for declining interest in such mega-sale events are misleading discounts (48 percent), too many sales events (36 percent), and familiarity (32 percent).

Asian attack: The competition from Temu and Shein

A particular challenge for Black Friday is the competition from Asian discount platforms like Temu and Shein. These retailers lure customers year-round with extremely low prices, putting considerable pressure on traditional brick-and-mortar stores. More than 40 percent of German consumers say they no longer need Black Friday discounts because Asian retailers offer consistently low prices.

The logic behind this is clear: Why wait until the end of November when you can shop cheaply at Temu and other platforms anytime? Almost one in four consumers who are generally interested in Black Friday say they plan to take advantage of the sales less frequently this year because the Asian portals offer consistently low prices all year round. The fashion, accessories, and home furnishings sectors are particularly affected.

The business model of these platforms differs fundamentally from that of their Western competitors. Products are shipped directly from the Chinese manufacturer, eliminating warehousing costs and intermediary margins. Furthermore, goods under €150 are exempt from customs duties. However, the quality of the products often remains questionable, and consumer protection agencies warn of safety defects, particularly in electronics and toys that do not meet EU standards.

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Sociology of the bargain hunter: Who buys what and why?

The socio-demographic analysis of Black Friday purchasing behavior reveals significant differences between various population groups. Analysis based on the Sinus Milieus social model shows that values ​​significantly shape consumer behavior. The Adaptive-Pragmatic Middle Class, the modern mainstream of society, which primarily focuses on saving money for the family budget, is particularly receptive to Black Friday sales.

Surprisingly, even the conservative upper class is receptive to the concept. In their changed social position, the traditional establishment apparently wants to move with the times. The most skeptical of the discount phenomenon, however, are the consumer-critical and sustainability-oriented post-materialists. This group fundamentally questions the necessity of increased consumption and prefers conscious purchasing decisions.

55 percent of Germans have already taken advantage of Black Friday deals. Among higher-income households, the figure is slightly higher at 61 percent, but even half of all households with tight finances have already benefited from the discounts. Black Friday is by no means solely a luxury phenomenon; it is used across all income levels, albeit for different reasons. For households with limited budgets, the day often offers an opportunity to save money on Christmas gifts.

The product categories that are particularly in demand on Black Friday reflect consumers' material desires. Fashion leads the pack with 51 percent of potential buyers, followed by computers and smartphones at 46 percent, and consumer electronics including televisions, audio equipment, and game consoles at 41 percent.

A PwC survey shows that 84 percent of consumers plan to take advantage of Black Friday deals starting November 28. On average, respondents anticipate spending around €265, which is comparable to last year. Gender differences are evident: men plan to spend more than women, which is also related to their greater preference for electronics and technology.

What's remarkable is the high level of brand loyalty among consumers on Black Friday. Three-quarters of those surveyed plan to shop at the same brand again this year as last year. This loyalty offers established retailers a certain degree of security, but makes it more difficult to acquire new customers and encourage them to switch brands.

Online dominance and the decline of city centers

The distribution between online and brick-and-mortar retail shows a clear dominance of e-commerce. Approximately 60 percent of Black Friday spending is done online. Consumers plan to spend just under 40 percent of their budget in physical stores, either for direct in-store purchases (26 percent) or to pick up online orders in-store using Click & Collect (13 percent).

A Deloitte survey of 1,000 German consumers reveals the difficult position of inner-city retailers. While around two-thirds of respondents have shopped online specifically on Black Friday, only 37 percent have gone to city centers in the past because of the sales event. More than half have never even been to a city center on Black Friday.

No trend reversal is expected for 2025. Only a quarter of those surveyed plan to shop in the city center on Black Friday instead of online. Those who do venture into the city are less likely to do so specifically to hunt for bargains. The vast majority of those who go downtown on Black Friday want to stroll around at their leisure, eat in the old town, and enjoy the unique atmosphere.

What would attract consumers to the city center, besides exclusive offers in brick-and-mortar stores and better parking facilities, is above all an attractive range of restaurants and accompanying events such as live music. Consciously supporting local businesses, on the other hand, plays only a minor role: only 13 percent of consumers cite this as a motivation.

Amazon dominates the German online retail market with a share of over 60 percent. In parcel delivery, the company is the second-largest provider behind DHL, with a share of between 15 and 25 percent. This market power enables Amazon to significantly shape and expand Black Friday. The company has long since transformed the original single day into a Black Week, hiring around 12,000 additional seasonal workers for the peak period.

The downsides of consumption: environmental impact and ethical questions

The environmental impact of Black Friday is increasingly being discussed critically. 68 percent of German consumers see Black Friday as a driver of overconsumption and environmental pollution. At the same time, 61 percent state that sustainable consumption is important to them, even on this day. This contradiction between the desire to consume and environmental awareness shapes the current debate.

The German Environmental Aid Association (Deutsche Umwelthilfe) sharply criticizes the consumer frenzy of Black Friday. In light of the climate, waste, and resource crises, a Green Friday is needed instead of Black Friday with its cheap offers for repairing broken devices. Electrical appliances, in particular, are bought new on Black Friday even though older devices still work or could be easily repaired.

A particular problem is the massive number of returns following discount promotions. Studies show that approximately four percent of all returns are destroyed immediately, which is still a significant figure considering the 280 million packages shipped across Germany. The return rate increases by 143 percent the day after Black Friday. This waste of resources stands in stark contrast to the sustainability promises that many retailers otherwise make.

Fairtrade Germany calls for fair consumer behavior and reminds us that shopping can be done differently: consciously, fairly, and with consideration for the people at the beginning of the supply chains. The lowest prices in Germany often go hand in hand with exploitation, environmental problems, and inhumane working conditions along the supply chain. The textile industry is responsible for around ten percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, more than all international flights and all shipping combined.

Several initiatives have emerged as a counter-movement to Black Friday. Green Friday aims to reverse the principle: the environment should also benefit from the urge to buy. Buy Nothing Day calls for a 24-hour voluntary abstinence from consumption. Under the hashtag #WhiteMonday, activists on social media urge people to repair or recycle products instead of buying new ones. Influencers on social media promote moderation in shopping under the hashtag #Underconsumption.

The debt trap: Risks of modern payment methods

The so-called "Buy Now Pay Later" offers from payment service providers like Klarna or PayPal pose significant risks for consumers. These options allow customers to buy immediately and pay later, either as an invoice purchase with a payment deadline or as an installment payment. These options are used more frequently, especially around Black Friday.

Debt counselors are warning of a rude awakening. "Buy Now, Pay Later" offers pose a significant risk because it's easy to lose track of the costs. Analyses show that the interest costs for installment financing offered by online retailers are sometimes three times higher than those of an independent bank loan. Providers charge interest rates of twelve to thirteen percent, which can quickly add up to substantial debt if several installment purchases are made simultaneously.

Studies show that one in three "Buy Now Pay Later" users in the US has missed a payment deadline at least once. In the UK, this has happened to one in ten. Reliable figures for Germany are not yet available, but the trend is clear: the number of cases of over-indebtedness due to online purchases is rising. Young and female consumers are particularly affected.

Technological change: AI as a shopping assistant

The integration of artificial intelligence is fundamentally changing shopping behavior on Black Friday. Approximately one in ten Germans plans to use AI to hunt for bargains by utilizing AI-powered price comparisons or recommendation systems. On the retailer side, AI algorithms are increasingly being used for price optimization. Retailers using AI or machine learning recorded a sales growth of 14.2 percent in 2024, compared to only 6.9 percent for companies without these technologies.

This development has ambivalent effects. On the one hand, consumers can indeed realize savings through intelligent price comparisons. On the other hand, AI enables retailers to differentiate prices with increasing precision and offer personalized deals that exploit the price elasticity of each individual customer. The asymmetry between retailers' technological capabilities and consumers' level of information could worsen.

Outlook for the Christmas season

Black Friday 2025 will take place during a Christmas shopping season characterized by cautious expectations. The German Retail Federation (HDE) forecasts a sales increase of 1.5 percent for November and December compared to the previous year, which corresponds to zero growth after adjusting for inflation. Total spending for the last two months of the year is estimated at €126.2 billion.

Eighty percent of the surveyed retailers expect cautious consumers, and 83 percent anticipate that customers will be more price-conscious given current price trends. Fifty-one percent of non-food retailers expect a worse or significantly worse Christmas season than last year. Christmas shopping is projected to account for approximately €1.6 billion of the total spending on Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday in 2025, which is comparable to the previous year.

Consumers themselves spend an average of €263 on Christmas gifts, €34 less than last year. 54 percent use Black Friday specifically for Christmas shopping. The most popular gift categories are gift vouchers, toys, books, and cosmetics and personal care products.

A business model at a crossroads

The current situation of Black Friday in Germany requires a nuanced assessment. On the one hand, the sales event has become firmly established in the consumer calendar and continues to generate significant revenue. On the other hand, the increasing skepticism of consumers shows that the original promise of exclusive bargain prices has lost its credibility.

The challenges facing retailers are multifaceted. They must operate in an environment characterized by subdued consumer sentiment, increased price sensitivity, heightened competition from low-cost Asian retailers, and growing sustainability awareness. Pure discount strategies are no longer sufficient to retain customers long-term. The repurchase rate for first-time Black Friday shoppers is a mere 22.6 percent; more than three-quarters of newly acquired customers do not return.

For consumers, Black Friday remains a double-edged sword. Those who specifically search for certain products, systematically compare prices, and don't let themselves be pressured by artificial urgency can certainly achieve real savings. While the average seven percent discount is less spectacular than the advertised price reductions of 50 percent or more suggest, absolute savings of several hundred euros are possible for high-priced products such as e-bikes or televisions.

At the same time, consumers should be aware of the psychological mechanisms that lead them to make impulse purchases. The recommendation from consumer protection agencies to create a list and define a fixed budget before buying something has lost none of its relevance in light of sophisticated marketing strategies. The statement that the most environmentally friendly and cheapest purchase is often the one that doesn't happen at all may be uncomfortable, but it contains a fundamental truth.

The future of Black Friday will depend largely on whether it is possible to regain consumer trust. Current trends show that the strategy of increasingly aggressive and longer-lasting discounts is reaching its limits. A business model based on systematically exaggerating price reductions ultimately undermines its own credibility.

Retailers face a strategic decision: whether to use Black Friday as a tool for acquiring new customers and building brand image, or primarily as a sales channel for older inventory. Data shows that short-term sales increases on the promotional day do not automatically translate into sustainable customer relationships. The low repurchase rate among new Black Friday customers underscores that price reductions alone do not generate customer loyalty.

For the German economy, Black Friday remains an ambivalent phenomenon. On the one hand, it generates measurable sales boosts during the crucial pre-Christmas shopping season. On the other hand, it is questionable whether these sales actually represent additional consumption or merely postpone purchases that would have been made anyway. The fact that 45 percent of consumers refrain from making major purchases a month or more before Black Friday suggests significant substitution effects.

The environmental impact of Black Friday remains problematic. Despite growing awareness of sustainability among the population, in practice the impulse to buy often outweighs ethical considerations. The gap between expressed interest in sustainable consumption and actual purchasing behavior is a phenomenon known in behavioral economics as the intention-action gap.

Black Friday 2025 may mark a turning point. For the first time, sales are declining, consumer distrust is growing, and alternative consumption models are gaining visibility. Whether this is the beginning of a fundamental shift or merely a temporary dip in an otherwise upward trend will become clear in the coming years. However, the profound skepticism of German consumers suggests that Black Friday, in its current form, is reaching its natural limits. The king of discount battles has, so to speak, lost his clothes, and more and more people are beginning to notice.

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